schoeppeya

4 hours ago, OSUmetstud said:

Yes, that's from the long tail of viral RNA that persists in people a few weeks after they have contagious virus. Were testing people outside of this window mostly. The article never suggests that these people never were contagious. By the time people have significant enough symptoms to think to get tested, weve missed most if not all of the window. 

People infected with the virus are most infectious from a day or two before symptoms appear till about five days after. But at the current testing rates, “you’re not going to be doing it frequently enough to have any chance of really capturing somebody in that window,” Dr. Mina added.

"Any test with a cycle threshold above 35 is too sensitive, agreed Juliet Morrison, a virologist at the University of California, Riverside. “I’m shocked that people would think that 40 could represent a positive,” she said. A more reasonable cutoff would be 30 to 35, she added. Dr. Mina said he would set the figure at 30, or even less. Those changes would mean the amount of genetic material in a patient’s sample would have to be 100-fold to 1,000-fold that of the current standard for the test to return a positive result — at least, one worth acting on."

These doctors are clearly making the argument that people are testing positive when they shouldn't be-its also been shown over and over again that a large number of people with a low viral load will never have a higher one. Which is why so many people, maybe even the majority, never have symptoms. Our entire response the last few months to the virus has been the huge number of positive tests. If fifty percent of those positive tests were taken away, our response would be different. Do you disagree with that? 

22 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Dude. Theyre positive. Its just that theyre late in their illness. We missed when they were actually infectious. Thats the point that michael mina is making. Not that they don't or didn't just have covid. 

Dude. Read the article again. Although Mina mentions that some of the low viral load positives are taken before or after they reach the peak, the intent of the article is to make the case that there are a ton of positive tests from carriers with a viral load too low to be transmissible. The article lists many reasons that this is possible beyond capturing the virus before or after an increase in viral load. 

1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said:

Its not a narrative thing. The FDA initially approved the highly sensitive RT-PCR tests that are excellent for clinic diagnosis. Thats their typical purview. They are not tailored to only find contagious patients in a community setting. Dr. Michael Mina is big on pushing for a different category of testing...one for the community survaillance. Those tests would be much cheaper, could be taken at home and often. Theyre not as sensitive but the people that need to be found to slow community transmission have very high levels of viral RNA which would be found by these new tests. 

It’s not a narrative that upwards of fifty percent of people who have tested positive possibly shouldn’t have and it’s barely being talked about? Total number of positive cases has been the most important metric by which this pandemic has been measured for months now. That has been the narrative that has justified much of the decision making as we’ve transitioned through the summer and fall - you really think that if all of the sudden people found out that over half of positives shouldn’t have been, they’re not going to be upset? 

11 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said:

The above article states this:

 

 

Narratives matter.

22 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Baum's graphic says cali and the northeast and midwest lead in testing. 

19 minutes ago, Stebo said:

FL/TX being higher is a function of population. Per capita its the midwest and northeast which OSU pointed out.

Lol. You’re trolling. 

10 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Those first 2 images are Houston based and the 3rd image is showing that it is going up recently. Plus I am saying the south there is more than Texas and Houston in the south. That first image isn't cases either its hospitalizations, that is different than total cases.

I’m aware of what the images show. The third image is testing, which is increasing, which is exactly the point. Did you see the graphic where Texas, California, Georgia, Tennessee and Florida are leaders for the amount of testing they have done? 

1 hour ago, Stebo said:

No it isn't and idk what your vested interest is in misinformation but around here we deal in facts.

Ok lets deal in facts. Look at the chart the poster above this statement posted. Look at the link I provided for you to look through. You are either a really good troll or too obtuse to digest data that is presented to you. The last chart clearly shows an increase in testing and a decrease in the percentage of positive tests, along with a downward trend of total positive cases and a dramatic decline in hospitalizations. So please, explain to me my vested interest in misinformation while I provide you with facts.

31 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

The prevailing theory for the mortality of Spanish flu is a high prevalence of secondary bacterial infections which would have been more treatable today. 

The spanish flu still hit in 3 or 4 waves over a few years. 

Sure, but there are also plenty of accounts of young adults going from healthy to dead in a 24 hour period from the Spanish Flu. That doesn't happen to healthy young adults from Covid. There is also a hypothesis that older populations had some antibody protection from the Russian Flu in 1890, but nothing conclusive. 

The point I was making was that even comparing the time period when we really didn't have an answer for Covid, the Spanish Flu was more deadly.

11 minutes ago, Stebo said:

The testing numbers have plummeted but the positivity rates aren't dropping as quickly as the testing rate so yes they are still getting sicker and sicker. If there was a true testing amount done the numbers in the south would be huge. That is why the per capita is through the roof across the south.

Literally everything you just claimed in that sentence is false.

1 minute ago, Inverted_Trough said:

I just went hiking for the past few hours.  My coping mechanism is the great outdoors.  You should try it sometime.  I'm sorry you can't get drunk in a crowded bar or go to a concert right now.  It's a tough sacrifice, I know.  But this too shall pass.

Had Covid hit us in 1918, it would be worse than the Spanish Flu.  Comparing pandemics that occurred eons ago -- when medicine was very primitive and we had very little understanding of pathogens - makes your argument weak.

The state of the economy is basically tied to how well the virus is controlled at this point.  This talk of "lockdowns" makes me believe that you still think it's April and Karen still can't get her nails done.

 

It is mine as well. I haven't drank for over three years. I do, however, also enjoy going to concerts, sporting events, the gym, etc etc. People who get their satisfaction from the outdoors are, unfortunately, the exception to the rule in our country. And, the mental health aspect of the shutdowns goes way beyond entertainment into kids spending most of their time at home, distance learning, and diminished socialization in general. 

It's not as different as you think it is. We had a several month period where we didn't know how in the world to treat Covid, and provably actually killed some people by putting them on ventilators. Covid has never killed young healthy people like the Spanish Flu did, who were actually at a higher risk than those with weaker immune systems. You're correct though, it is all hypotheticals. I tend to think if Covid had hit in 1918 most of the country would have caught it during the initial outbreak and it would have been considered a bad flu season. There's a huge number of cases in this country that people didn't know they had until they got tested. That wouldn't have changed. 

9 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Infected per capita is currently higher in the south than the north thats just not debatable. 

 

8 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Things are objectively getting better in the south currently though. 

Im not arguing that. I am contradicting his claim that nobody in the south is taking the precautions they need to and they will continue to get "sicker and sicker". Both of those claims are not true. 

53 minutes ago, Stebo said:.

The data is showing that the case numbers per capita are still much higher down there. The only reason the actual numbers are not higher is because of lack of testing whether the people aren't getting the tests or there just aren't enough tests being done. These are literal facts.

 

https://www.tmc.edu
 

Take a look through that data. That is for the largest health care system in Houston. You’re still wrong.

39 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Okay. Why is that relevant?

Just illustrating there’s still a cost to keeping virus numbers low that goes beyond economic numbers. 

46 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said:

Pandemics are tough.  Sorry that those Taylor Swift concerts are cancelled.  

Sorry playing D&D in your moms basement is your standard coping mechanism. Life goes on as normal for you.
 

The bubonic plague that killed a quarter of Europe’s population was tough. Smallpox in the New World that killed up to 90% of Native populations was tough. Hell, the Spanish Flu that killed healthy young adults and was a death sentence for pregnant women was tough. If you think this pandemic is tough, I don’t know what to tell you. The self imposed economic and social impacts will cause more harm than this virus ever would have. 

19 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said:

Everything is pretty much open.  Other than entertainment venues and some bars.

Everything except societies conventional coping mechanisms.

51 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

It seems that the countries are doing reasonably well economically are the ones that have covid more under control. Germany is doing relatively well economically for example. 

 

They’ve also been having massive anti-Rona lockdown protests over the last couple weeks 

10 hours ago, Stebo said:

Several of the highest per capita case amounts over the last few months have been in the south. That is the truth. Your anecdotes are irrelevant here.

I specifically took issue with you stating the south will continue to get “sicker and sicker”, which actual data shows is beyond ignorant. 

1 hour ago, Stebo said:

Yeah I'll trust the numbers over your random post. 

Yeah they are idiots but the rural parts of this state are not treating this the same as the cities. As for the links the first one is opinion and from April where a lot of data has come out since. The second one I could counter with the high volume of cases as colleges and they are much bigger spreaders amongst themselves and across the country. Also how long as school even been back in person, how about we wait a bit more than a week before spiking that ball.

It is comical that you make a post claiming to trust the numbers, implying that they reinforce your narrative. If you actually go look at them, you will show my post is a reflection of those numbers, and you clearly have no idea what the numbers actually are. The only states currently showing an upward trend in cases are, in fact, not in the south. 

I haven't seen anybody not wearing a mask in public in OKC in about two months. I have been to Dallas several times and it is the same situation there. My father in law has flown to Houston a few times and most of the city has been shut downl. So, again, you have no clue what you're talking about. 

On 8/27/2020 at 8:11 PM, Stebo said:

Yeah with all that social interaction and refusal to wear a mask, the south will continue to keep get sicker and sicker. Reluctance to treat this as something serious is going to the at their own peril.

As someone who lives in the south, you literally have no clue what you’re talking about. Not to mention, the south has already been getting less sick and less sick for about a month now.

Keeping an eye on the dews here in Fayetteville... temp of 39 but a dewpoint of 22 with moderate rain about to move in... could see some impressive evaporational cooling. (At least I can dream right )

52 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said:

Amber....for whatever reason you cant see the snow coming down but its snowing really good currently. Is starting to finally stick now! Looky

Ive been a mainly lurker on the forum for almost ten years now and just dropped in to say howdy neighbor . (I live on Wildflower)