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schoeppeya

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Everything posted by schoeppeya

  1. schoeppeya
    The GFS has been the leader for this entire event... i'm in the GFS camp for now until proven otherwise.
  2. schoeppeya
    Y'all have confidence this is going to make its way down to the troposphere?
  3. schoeppeya
    Pretty incredible radar presentation right now
  4. schoeppeya
    Looks like we may be getting an attempt to clear out the eye as well
  5. schoeppeya
    To me, it looks like Idalia still doesn’t have most of its energy focused around the eyewall and think we need to see that bigger outer band really contract before we see winds increase and pressures start dropping. All the feeder bands are currently working into this band rather than the inner eyewall.
  6. schoeppeya
    Looking at radar it looks like we are about to have our first fully closed eye shortly.
  7. schoeppeya
    Originally posted in the wrong thread but the low over florida has clearly moved into a better position to provide some ventilation to the northeast
  8. schoeppeya
    Idalia has had a really hard time actually wrapping feeder bands into the center of the system
  9. schoeppeya
    Getting salty
  10. schoeppeya
    Storm has wrapped convection all the way around the circulation including the ups head side, not convinced it’s not off to the races
  11. schoeppeya
    Radar looks like it’s definitely attempting to wrap thunderstorms on the up shear side of the storm
  12. schoeppeya
    Finally seeing really intense sustained convection over the center of the storm
  13. schoeppeya
    Not sure if the llc is feeling the effects of the deeper convection to the east or what but it’s getting pulled that direction in a hurry on visible
  14. schoeppeya
    Very obvious on visible there is an LLC somewhere over the channel
  15. schoeppeya
    Looks like there another aircraft en route, should be great timing to capture whatever peak this thing is going for after the ERWC. Looks great on sat.
  16. schoeppeya
    Pretty apparent outflow boundary from the ongoing storms on visible. Surface obs showing north winds behind the boundary, could focus convergence as the warm front continues lifting north.
  17. schoeppeya
    Going to be an area to watch for any residual boundaries this afternoon
  18. schoeppeya
    My biggest concerns for this event verifying were weak thermodynamics and a lack of backed surface winds. Visible and surface obs are largely showing neither of those will be an issue.
  19. schoeppeya
    Visible showing that a huge chunk of MO, IL, and IN are going to get at the very least several hours of sunshine today.
  20. schoeppeya
    Everything going up in E Tx is getting that bean shape and quickly developing rotation
  21. schoeppeya
    Coming east
  22. schoeppeya
    Still have at least two days where hope is alive
  23. schoeppeya
    Fingers crossed the westward trend stops here in Indy… that run actually takes the low south of the city just dry slots it pretty hard. I’m sure there would be some once in a lifetime type weather transitions if the low goes right overhead.
  24. schoeppeya
    Anybody know the average SLP error for this time range?
  25. schoeppeya
    Yep, sitting on the north side of Indy, 12z was about 20 miles too far nw from being a biblical storm here.
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