Jump to content

schoeppeya

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    562

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by schoeppeya

  1. schoeppeya
    Temps after the snow are pretty unbelievable with the models showing the deeper snow further south suggesting Tulsa could have 2 days of single digit highs. Id imagine the typical cold spots like Nowata will have some lows well below zero.
  2. schoeppeya
    Around 7 in the south Tulsa burbs, still snowing. Over performed for sure.
  3. schoeppeya
    Haven’t given up hope in Tulsa, in the time frame we usually start to see the final shifts and trends take place… another jump south like the 0z euro and we’d at least be on the north side of the low. .
  4. schoeppeya
    Givin the current forward speed we are only about 3 hours from the outer edges of the eyewall impacting land. Seems early.
  5. schoeppeya
    I am impressed with how the eye has centered itself within the convection given the shear
  6. schoeppeya
    Agreed. At least to this point, the degraded IR presentation looks to be more from an ERWC than from shear blasting the core. As others have pointed out, the models that degrade the storm rapidly basically dissipate the southern half of the storm due to dry air and looking at lower level water vapor imagery im just not seeing the dry air to the south of the storm for shear to push in yet. I also don’t see how this doesn’t make landfall significantly earlier than it looked last night
  7. schoeppeya
    What exactly are the decreasing threats? This is still a 155 mph cat 4 that is right on track with intensity expectations and encountering shear as has been widely discussed for 48 hours. It may well end up weaker then expected but high end impacts are baked in at this point
  8. schoeppeya
    Those supercells that are offshore are going to be a really, really bad situation.
  9. schoeppeya
    Eye coming into view on the key west radar
  10. schoeppeya
    I don’t know how much to value it but just for trend it’s basically steady state on intensity between now and landfall
  11. schoeppeya
    Yeah have to think the next 10-12 hours are the best remaining window of higher water temps and lowish shear. Should be solidly over the loop current now
  12. schoeppeya
    Does like maybe the beginnings of a new outer eyewall/secondary wind max as well?
  13. schoeppeya
    Literally rides the northern side of Tampa Bay as well
  14. schoeppeya
    18z HAFS B initialized about 35 mb too high
  15. schoeppeya
    Don't be sorry, I am wrong all the time! ETA: I measured and youre right its pretty stable in size right now
  16. schoeppeya
    The eye is really contracting again... I wonder if we will see another EWRC and intensification phase while conditions are still very favorable tonight into tomorrow morning
  17. schoeppeya
    Almost perfect IR presentation again. I don't think we will get there but just given the overall look I wouldn't be shocked if we make a run at yesterdays numbers.
  18. schoeppeya
    HAFS-B still wants to ride the north side of the bay but the hurricane models are becoming outliers on that at this point
  19. schoeppeya
    Wow that IR presentation escalated quickly
  20. schoeppeya
    I dont know if they missed it as much as the center was in between data readings because the eye is so small... waiting for that dropsonde
  21. schoeppeya
    No signs of an ERC yet
  22. schoeppeya
    They should be basically through a pass, last update on TT is from almost half an hour ago and they were just outside the CDO
  23. schoeppeya
    Going to be a biblical run, eye still condensing and cloud tops still cooling
  24. schoeppeya
    The stuff these hurricane hunters do inside storms makes me feel like an absolute fool for any type of flight anxiety I have.
  25. schoeppeya
    Eye really clearing on IR, pressure likely going to continue to crater.
×
×
  • Create New...