schoeppeya

50 minutes ago, GSwizzle83 said:

Sorry if my post was confusing. I meant that compaction was an issue because of the size of the flakes and not that the flake size led to solar radiation lowering totals. For example, just saw the SGF recorded .75" of liquid equivalent yet only had a little over 6" of snow. 

 

Was definitely low ratio, fine sand snow here as well. 

1 minute ago, MoWeatherguy said:

Below is the Euro from 12z Sunday.  10:1 map. It's still high in places but much more in line with actual results. 

Yeah the issue with that is at 10:1 that would have still had me at .43"qpf and I have a quarter of that. 

SGF reported 3.5" at 6:00, just a stunning bust. The 00Z NMB last night was almost 12 inches. Hard to comprehend how everything missed that badly 12 hours from the start of the event. 

I have a screenshot of the most recent HRRR run at 7 this morning still showing 9” for Tulsa and I have MAYBE 1” on the ground at my house.

As frustrating as it is for someone who loves big weather events, it’s one of the reasons I love it so much. As much as people want to think we have it figured out, there’s always reminders like this that Mother Nature will still do what she wants.


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Not going to drone on about it anymore but this is the worst modeling bust inside of 12 hours I can remember outside of a severe weather bust or two. Radar estimates have me at .1” QPF which is 1/4 the lowest amount any model had me at even as if 06z this morning.


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Finally moderate to heavy snow here, hopefully can squeeze a couple inches out of it.

15 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

You jinxed it!  And we’re all blaming you!!!

Ill own it, and it won't be the first time its felt like I have singlehandedly jinxed a big event

22 hours ago, schoeppeya said:

I'm finally letting myself buy in now that we are 12ish hours from the start and trends are increasing totals if anything. Looking like it's going to be the biggest snow since Feb 2011 followed by deep, deep cold. Hope everybody gets the goods and enjoys this once in every 15- or 20-year type event. 

Absolutely classic that we immediately started trending away from the high end solutions after this post

The CAMS are still very insistent that we get to 3-5" in Tulsa so guess we will see... I'd feel pretty good if I was in NWA/SW Mo still

3 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said:

It's gonna have to snow like gangbusters these next few hours for Bella Vista to sniff even 6-8 inches. Small flakes most of the day not much intensity yet.

We aren't even close to an inch yet in Tulsa, at this point I don't know if we are going to get enough to even take the kids sledding. 

2 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Tulsa radar is beginning to increase in coverage.

HRRR has it filling in very quickly over the next hour or two

24 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Radar in Oklahoma is concerning to me. High res models from yesterday afternoon greatly overestimated moisture down there it appears. Long ways to go, but I have to assume that has downstream impacts. 

Same. I don't want to jump the gun on calling a bust but im starting to feel like we would be lucky to get 6" in Tulsa. We are still getting freezing rain on the south side of town so still pretty ugly regardless. 

20 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

I just drove into work(I work for QT Corporate and they don't close for ANYTHING), it was sleeting with occassional flurries mixed in up in Owasso, by the time I got into Tulsa/Broken Arrow, it was all freezing rain and the roads were deteriorating fast. I am fully prepared to spend the night at work if I have to.

Pretty unbelievable, I'm in Bixby and we have been getting freezing rain for a few hours and you couldn't pay me enough money to get out on the roads right now. 

I dont know that moods soured but the short term trends arent QUITE as favorable as after the 18z suite

Notable reduction in QPF on a lot of the 0z models right after the increase on the 18z runs

I think you could draw a rough oval from independence to tulsa to mountain home to springfield to pittsburg and say anyone inside that could is looking at 8-12"+ depending on where the heaviest bands verify. 

I'm finally letting myself buy in now that we are 12ish hours from the start and trends are increasing totals if anything. Looking like it's going to be the biggest snow since Feb 2011 followed by deep, deep cold. Hope everybody gets the goods and enjoys this once in every 15- or 20-year type event. 

NAM came south again too. NEOK bullseye

Doubled QPF/snowfall totals for places just north of Tulsa like Bville, loving the trend. 

3 minutes ago, JoMo said:

And the 18z GFS shifted back south a tiny bit so that's good. 

Definitely a step towards the Icon/Canadian. Still about ten degrees warmer which seems like a significant difference at this range. 

GFS an outlier on temps at this point with highs 10ish degrees higher for Tulsa on Wednesday and Thursday than the other models


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The NAM is much farther north. When should we pay attention to it? 

It’s been TERRIBLE this year outside of 24 hours and even then, still not good.


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Temps after the snow are pretty unbelievable with the models showing the deeper snow further south suggesting Tulsa could have 2 days of single digit highs. Id imagine the typical cold spots like Nowata will have some lows well below zero. 

Around 7 in the south Tulsa burbs, still snowing. Over performed for sure. 

Haven’t given up hope in Tulsa, in the time frame we usually start to see the final shifts and trends take place… another jump south like the 0z euro and we’d at least be on the north side of the low.


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Givin the current forward speed we are only about 3 hours from the outer edges of the eyewall impacting land. Seems early.