bristolri_wx

22 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Hi guys. I hear alot about Hadley cell expansion and when it happens, winters are tough to get real cold. My question is for who knows more than the average person about that is where is the Hadley cell located and anyway to tell if it is or will be expanding? I believe it has a profound effect on the north Pacific pattern 

Paging @Typhoon Tip... Paging @Typhoon Tip... 

50 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

so the higher resolution the model, the further east? Guess which one I'll be betting on

I wouldn't bet on the high-res meso-models with a tropical system.  I thought I had read at one point the physics in the global models handle tropical systems better than the mesoscale models do... but I definitely could be wrong or have it backwards.

That being said, the NHC forecasted path of Elsa hasn't moved more than 20 miles over the last 8 forecasts from them - the center of the path has been wavering between Newport and Providence.  If I were truly a betting man, I would bet on that heavy rain band being a little farther west than the HRRR's current depiction.

How often do 925 wind speeds result in similar gusts at the surface?  If you throw out the GFS, almost every model has 50-75 kt winds at 925 for RI and SE MA as Elsa flies by...

5 minutes ago, Nova737 said:

For the first time i can remember the center of the cone goes directly over me. This is going to be interesting/fun.

I think the last time center went directly over RI was Bob in 1991... been close in a few other cases... not sure if this thing will be tropical as it passes over New England though...

First time I've ever read the ICON being discussed in BOX discussion?  GFS "thrown out" lol...

Quote

Confidence still highest in heavy rainfall with tropical downpours
associated with Elsa as it moves through. PWAT values will get up to
2-2.25 inches, which is around the maximum for this time of year per
SPC Sounding Climatology for CHH. Unsurprisingly, will have warm
cloud layer depths between 3.5-4.5 km, so will have very efficient
rainfall processes going on. Still some uncertainty on the track,
which will delineate where the heaviest QPF is located and where the
wind risk will be. Right now the greatest probabilities of 24 hr QPF
AOA 1 inch are highest across the interior per the EPS/GEFS
guidance, which falls in line with a more inland track as shown by
the latest ECMWF. Will really need to hone in on this track for
determining where the highest rainfall amounts are anticipated. This
is somewhat in contrast to some of the latest deterministic guidance
showing the highest swath from eastern CT/RI into eastern MA. So,
will need to really hone in on the track to determine where the
heaviest rain will fall and where there could potentially be a flood
threat especially given the recent rains we`ve received. Went with
the latest WPC guidance for QPF. Agree with the WPC latest Day 3
Excessive Rainfall Outlook.

As stated in the previous section, will really need to hone in on
the track of Elsa to determine not only the heavy rainfall risk, but
also where the damaging wind risk will be highest. The latest
ECWMF/NAM guidance are concerning given we have a 60-70+ kt
southerly 925 hPa jet associated with Elsa crossing eastern portions
of the CWA. Other pieces of deterministic guidance are a bit more
muted with the strength of this jet, but have really just thrown out
the GFS in the latest update as it appears to keep the core too far
offshore, which is counter to the ECMWF/UKMET/ICON/NAM and GEM
guidance. Will need to watch this closely. Once again will refer
folks to the official NHC page for the official track/timing of Elsa
as it moves through the region.

44 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m wondering if the folks that don’t like summer Wx would choose this weekend’s wx every Memorial Day weekend or would choose HHH every MDW? 

Is there a third option?

Been following this storm all week. Work has been crazy but I decided to leave early so I can get some yard work done and mow the hayfield formerly called my lawn. Just finished and checking again looks like I may treat myself to an ice cold Sam because it was a good decision.

Looking like the worst Memorial Day weekend in a while. Cool, breezy, 50’s if we are lucky and 2-3” of rain. I’ve been diggin’ the FV3 Hi-Res on TT and it hasn’t been too shabby…

If the events of the last 18 months are some sort of global-corporate conspiracy in one way or another, then, we're all done.  If it was, then it's all beyond us at this point, as people with much more money and power are controlling the chess pieces and any of us here posting and discussing are just the pawns.

Personally I don't buy it.  I prefer to be the optimist and realist and consider everything that happened with COVID at it's face value.  Live your best life at this point, and just be considerate to others however you see fit.  If you're not sure how to take this post, then good, as that was the intent - the context is your own.

This is very sad news.  I always enjoyed his posts.  His optimism for snow on the Cape was constant.  I think many of us who live near the coast in SENE can appreciate James' prognostications considering how often we get screwed, even if many of them didn't come to pass.  May he rest in peace.

Mix of sleet and rain in Bristol… unexpected..

Dippin dots incoming here, 45.

12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Nice! You can offset the ob graphics on the regional screens as well so that they don't overlap.

 

btw...if you ever figure out the radar let me know.

On the WS4000 forum there are a couple posts about the radar being down - it has to do with NWS getting rid of their old radar graphics system.  It broke in mid December.  I'm not a coder so I don't think I could handle a custom fix for it, but it sounds like they are going to try and update the app to use radar info from the University of Iowa.  It sounds like Bill, the primary developer, is having a tough time in his personal life so he's not updating the app as much as he would like.

I'm still playing around with it.  It was a nice late Feb/COVID geek project!

Not sure if this belongs in the banter thread or not.  @dendrite posted a screenshot from a WS4000 simulator used to reproduce the Weather Channel local forecast graphics decks from the 1990's on the Feb 22 thread.  Did some research based on that screen shot - had some fun setting this up that I'm sure many on the forum would appreciate.  Hopefully the link continues to work - had some issues with takedown's due to the background music I picked out (I really wanted to make it authentic based on memory of some of the music my cable company used to inject into the Local Forecast breaks):

https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?v=345618743325108&ref=watch_permalink

This was done purely for fun and nostalgia - enjoy!

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Aww yeah

Thanks for posting this so I could look up what the WS4000 simulator was!

39 and rain in Newport.
37 and rain in Bristol.
Not seeing any mixing at either location...

Only a few inches on the ground but definitely been an interesting storm.

I agree with Kevin these types of storms are better in December…

2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Final Call snow map

Can you convert that map from metric to imperial?

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Man .. you def in minority. I would estimate 2-3 years since I logged onto a PC to post. To each their own

I work in IT so 75% all my posting is done from a 13” MacBook Pro docked to a nice high res display - but that’s only because I’m in front of it 8-12 hours a day.

However posting from a mobile device isn’t nearly as bad as it used to be thanks to the forum upgrades. Even the model sites really aren’t to bad on a large phone display. And you have RadarScope as well.

In 2021 you can have the best of both worlds and not be too handicapped using one or the other…

On the drive down to Newport it got as high as 57 at the crest of the Mt Hope Bridge... 49 in Newport...

50 here. We had a couple of inches left on the ground last night, it’s almost all gone now… back to bare ground.

Would like to have been in that heavy band for a little longer than an hour. Around 5” on the ground here... at least there was no mixing today.

Getting back into the good bands here now. Hopefully it stays for a while. The good ole snow hole made a visit for a few hours LOL...

11 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

Seems like narragansett bay screw zone about to open up. How shocking.

Less because of the bay and more because we are stuck between two bands that aren’t moving much, but sucks none the less...

BOX cut back a little...

Just now, weathafella said:

ECMWF is not a government entity as far as I know.

"The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is an independent intergovernmental organization supported by most of the nations of Europe" -Wikipedia.

Yes, not a branch of the EU.  But we can still do better.  We know how the ebbs and flows of politics have affected NOAA the last 10-20 years... but you are 100% correct in your response.  The reason why humans interpret models and predict weather is because models aren't perfect, even as they improve and gain resolution.

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

Instead of dealing with data issues on the v16 and FV3, NCEP should commission a team to study why all of its models are so different so close in this winter.  It's not enough to say that each model has its own idiosyncrasies, because garbage in = garbage out.

The GFS outputs for the entire globe.  Why does NCEP care that much about a margin of error of 50 miles on a storm in such a small geographic area?  Not making excuses here, it's just that New England snowfall accuracy in the coastal plain is just one of millions of chaotic events going on at any given time that the models need to predict.

That being said, if the US put the same resources into weather modeling like the ECMWF does, we would be better for it.  We used to be the best at this, and we no longer are.