bristolri_wx

2 minutes ago, Quincy said:

12z NSSL WRF still likes the west camp:

Yes... also in the much stronger camp too... guessing that's about 975 mb on that map?

Looks like the NHC track came a smidge east...

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Don’t remember if this was posted but still a general consensus for west. 
 

That doesn't look right - only because the UKMET and HWRF aren't showing tracks that far west.  UKMET was way east of that last night... unless I'm misunderstanding "UKX2" and "HWF2" abbreviations...

23 minutes ago, Quincy said:

3km NAM pegs eastern LI for landfall

Just for trend purposes... the 3km is way east of it's runs yesterday evening.... it's about two runs behind the 12k nam on track and strength at the moment...

Hmmm, no track adjustments yet from NHC… surprised considering how many models moved east later last night and this morning. It’s hard to bet against the GFS and Euro when they are close to being in the same camp….

Euro scrapes E LI at HR 42 and takes it into central CT.  Looks like it moved about 25-50 miles east this run... strength about the same.

Euro looks a pinch east and a little slower through HR 24...

3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

usually 4pm/4am 

True, but often they have an update at around 10:30-ish...

Gee, no forecast discussion at BOX tonight... last one was at 7:15 PM...

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Shocker...

You called it.  Canadian same thing.  12z was over NYC, 0z over Westerly RI.  That's about 150 miles lol...

1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

new ukmet tracks from Eastern LI into NY/CT/MA border area. 

That's about 50-75 miles east of previous run...

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

This may be pulling a TS Chris right now. Looks completely sheared with full decoupling. 

I expect hurricane warnings to be dropped. Won't be more than a weak TS at landfall.

Seems a little early to draw that conclusion...

11 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Not that I’m saying the 0z changes everything. 6z could go back west, but I imagine they prepared the forecast package prior to the latest runs. 

Let's look at facts in play:

- We're now within 48 hours of landfall, so modeling should be improving in general.
- That cut-off low west of Henri is now forming and no longer "theoretical" and is probably now better sampled from observation data.
- We have multiple recon flights into Henri ingesting data into the models.

The only thing probably not sampled as well is the ridge/blocking to the east of Henri. While nothing is ever certain, I think it's fair to say that @40/70 Benchmark is correct in the assumption that the west trend is ending and maybe overdone by some of the models and the correction is underway.  Central to eastern CT is probably where landfall will occur, maybe a chance it gets as far as Westerly or Charlestown RI.  While we need to see the Euro to be sure, probably just some "wobbles" or "blips" going forward on the major models and you'll probably see the crap models that are taking it into NJ and NYC correct farther east.

Waterford FTW on the GFS...

Yup GFS gonna be east as well.  Consistently 5mb to 8mb weaker than 18z run also.

1 minute ago, natedizel said:

I feel the NHC had their map before the RGEM came out lol

They probably don't heavily weigh their forecasts on it either.  The 18Z ensembles were a little west of the previous track, and that may have been accounted for in the 11PM update.  I'm interested in what the GFS does at 0z.  If it's east then I'm betting the Euro will be as well, and NHC will update at 2AM or 5AM accordingly.

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

NAM definitely east...3km a bit west of that. 3km run is bad news for much of cT 

3K was also east vs 18z... but not by much...

Looks like NAM is making landfall over South County RI...

1 minute ago, kdxken said:

Just got back from golf and beers. Don't have time to wade through the thickets. This is a nothing burger for Massachusetts right?

Probably more of a cheeseburger with a small fry.  But not a Big Mac or a Whopper.

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Looks like a mess

Looks like a toss.  The entire 48 hour run the HRRR never gets winds above what are already actually being recorded right now... doesn't seem to jive with all the other modeling...

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

00z HRRR east and weaker

Significantly weaker... not sure how much value the long range HRRR has (probably similar to the NAM).... but... another model with an eastward trend... it also initialized poorly....

3 minutes ago, Quincy said:

May have to settle with Henrietta 

Does the west trend stop? Does Henri “shuffle” east? Who gets whacked, New York or New Haven? Can anyone trust the NAM? This and more tonight on AMWX (Queue breaking news music…)