bristolri_wx

I'll take the under on he SREF output.  Boy what a c**k****e for those S/E of 95 on that map... If I get some flurries/snow showers after this week I call it a win lol...

1 hour ago, Hazey said:

#NovaScotiaStrong

Just walked the dog and can feel this damp “winter” muck finally moving out. Chilly breeze was refreshing. About time…

3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Some flurries, 30 degrees.

We would take flurries down here. It’s been ****ing miserable here since Christmas. The doldrums… anecdotal but can’t remember such a stretch at the beginning of winter.

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Tossing a model 48 hours out ? You would think it would be good this far out.

GFS is kind of on its own on this one. NAM wants none of this and it’s within range of it being relatively accurate. Will be surprised if GFS is right on this one.

The positive on this is that even though the storm is a miss, at it at least has a semblance of change in the pattern indicated with a storm actually strengthening into some sort of cyclone to the south of us, rather than shredded mozzarella we’ve been getting last two weeks. Slow progress…

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

ACK close to a snow event Monday morning on gfs.

Yup every run that low moves another 50 miles NW on the GFS op… still won’t amount to much but it’s a consistent trend…

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Then there's the 0z NAM.

True, total miss on the NAM at the moment... but it's at the edge of the 12K range and not in the range of the 3k yet... probably not worth factoring it in for now considering it's not even in agreement with any of the globals on the strength of that low anywhere on the east coast.

That 1/3 storm has been steadily backing north and west towards New England on all the global models.  Something to watch, maybe a chance of a scrape?

@Typhoon Tip great write up, even if it doesn’t happen.

Also great that there’s no material in here to get cross posted back to off-topic threads 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

CFS actually nailed December.

Noted…

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I said that yesterday, CFS is very cold....AER in house model is, too.

Ha sorry missed that. The worst part of this is looking at the CFS for a hopeful outcome lol. Not much of a confidence booster but you take what you get. 

FWIW… I know this is going to be weenied into oblivion but the CFS that’s available on Pivotal has been looking better for January… a couple of warm ups on there in the long range but also plenty of cold and at least some potential for not everything to be shredded. Just basing this on the 500mb anomaly maps…

The weather in RI has sucked that last few days. 40’s, cloudy, foggy, drizzly, occasionally rainy… as many others have said not how you want to “torch” in December. I would take cold and dry over this shit weather… can’t wait for this pattern to transition to something else…

1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yet unemployment numbers are at record lows. Where the hell are people working?

It’s hard to get good answers to that question, but my best but very uneducated guess from reading is that more people have been retiring than entering the workforce for several years now. That accelerated during the pandemic. Add in the increase in the death rates the last couple of years for however you wish to attribute it, and the reductions in *legal* immigration, and you have yourself a labor shortage. Most people who worked in service industries have moved on to other jobs. Some people have left the workforce entirely, but I think that’s only a small part of the story, and the extended unemployment benefits have long since ended, so clearly that’s not the cause of the problem either, even though that was the narrative according to many  last year.

TLDR: a labor shortage has been slowly occurring last few years, pandemic accelerated it and made it worse.

1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

That’s too bad.  They used to do a great job on their steaks.  Medium-rare perfection. 
Try the pulled pork on cinnamon raisin toast down at Moat Brewery sometime.  Yum. 

Ate there in mid-November when we did a quick visit to Santa’s Village. I had steak tips and my wife had the prime rib. We thought everythIng was great. Still have good French onion soup as well.

It wouldn’t surprise me that there’s more inconsistency at these types of small eateries due to staffing issues and supply chain problems. Unemployment is low so it’s going to be a while before things stabilize…

Wouldn’t surprise me if icing is a little worse than forecasted tomorrow with temps running lower than predicted today. Seems that the atmosphere is a bit colder than was modeled…

If you play the percentages that pattern out west is going to break down eventually… question does it happen in time to make things more favorable here. It’s hard to go with your gut when there are record anomalies…

1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

Nice.  My nephew and sister in law live in Bristol.  Brian loves snow and bought a snowblower when he moved down there from Metro West Boston.  He has been so frustrated.  He is out there now finally using the blower.  It will be gone Im sure in tomorrows rain but he is having fun

I think I have had to use a snow blower twice down here in the last 3 years. Either not enough to get it setup (I have an electric corded one) or way to slushy due to p-type issues. Even todays 2” wasn’t enough to get it out…

13 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

WinterWolf was on the prowl and vicious this AM.  Yikes

Basically no snow here and couldn't be happier.

Merry Christmas

Grabbed these before running some errands. Couple of inches here in Bristol. Enjoy some photos from Colt State Park - got to test the new tires on some unplowed roads as well. Happy Holidays!

3 minutes ago, FRWEATHA said:

I’m sure that this is the last time I jack this winter compared to just about everyone else on here.

“God bless us every one”

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man what a nice ending in RI and down to New Bedford.

It’s a Christmas (Eve) miracle! 

I get the feeling this is how the board would have been if it existed in the 80’s and early 90’s when there were a lot of terrible winters for snow…

25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Look at the difference in California at 84 or 90h on the 18z run compared to 12z....that is LOL. You don't typically see the Euro make jumps like that.

 

I swear I read an article a few months back, that I had to Google translate from French to English, that Euro upgrades always focus on verifying forecast improvements in the European domain first, even though it’s a global model. I couldn’t find it in my history to repost, so don’t hold me to it - someone with more understanding of modeling software development can feel free to correct that statement.

34 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

I would imagine the East coast of SNE has much more in the way of erratic ptype line with some storms than the south coast. That’s my guess. But I really haven’t spent much time in Massachusetts, cape, Boston or whatever. Not that I don’t like that, it’s just that my family and I always end up in CT or RI. Providence is sort of a transition area between south coast effect and east coast effect.
 

i am much more familiar with the south coast. In any case, storms tend to start as snow then turn to rain. The flip back to snow isn’t that frequent in my memory. I know of areas that are the opposite where it always starts as rain and turns to snow… mostly because it’s a cold front thing. No matter where I live, I’ve had issues with cold front rain to snow transitions always taking longer than advertised especially back in the day. Just when it finally changes over it is coming to an end and it’s too late for accumulation. This effect is why leeside foothills out west can receive multiples of snow compared to the east side of the valley just a few miles to the east. And more than once I have purposely relocated myself to some cabin in those hills just to get the best of that.

i can’t afford to do that anymore. 

Every event is nuanced here due to the effects of being right next to the Atlantic and a stones throw away from the Gulf Stream.

There are several demarcation lines for events depending on how cold the air mass is and the track of the storm. We probably only have a couple events a year, if we’re lucky, that mixed precipitation isn’t an issue somewhere in SNE. Sometimes it’s I-95, sometimes it’s the Mass Pike, sometimes it’s I-495.

The south coast definitely has more issues with P-type than the east coast. In fact the east coast (or north shore and south shore) often picks up extra snow in Nor’Easters where ocean enhancement kicks in as the storms pull east. That never really happens at the south coast.