bristolri_wx

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

There may be some serious melts if this underperforms

Doubtful... we've been seeing underperforming rainstorms for months now.  Most are hopeful but not optimistic...

11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I’m just wondering how wide the 7-10 split will be given the seasonal “trends”

6 minutes ago, BrianW said:

Have you seen the future spot prices on electricity in Europe this winter? It's approaching a record $500 mwh. Here in New England with some of the most expensive electricity in the US our average price of $50 mwh is a bargain.

Wa

I have but it's still speculation at this point.  More than likely it will come to fruition but things can also change quickly.  Regardless I think many of replying are in agreement that now is the time to fill up, if you can, because it doesn't look like prices will get much better in the Winter months and will most likely get worse.

I would also agree on filling now.  While it's tough to get projections on propane, fuel costs are expected to rise this winter.  Gasoline is falling right now, but only because refineries are finally catching up with demand and the markets have priced the Ukraine war into oil based commodities by now. Europe not buying Russian natural gas is a huge wildcard at the moment that could have some chain reactions.  It's kind of unprecedented...

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Unfortunately, it seems like both the CAMs and Global models
are struggling to resolve this mid and low level dry air,

 

 

This isn’t the first time we have heard unforecasted dry air as the reason for a busted modeled forecast. Are they taking feature requests at NOAA/NCEP?

Yup, it's drying out on the HRRR as well.  Each run since 00z has been less... grrr...

I’m feeling bullish on rain tomorrow. Good chances for up to 1” east of the CT river, though there will be pockets of winners and losers like in any good coastal we get.

Not surprising we get an anomalous low, during an anomalous pattern, during an anomalous drought. 
 

We’re due!

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

We may get some rain here… but my guess is a Nam solution will be more correct than the euro 

Article is from June but interesting to get some background on upgraded compute for NOAA models:

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/us-supercomputers-for-weather-and-climate-forecasts-get-major-bump

Next 35 days on the GFS Ensemble 00z 8/13 Run...

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think it’s more a s/w issue to be honest. 

While the 18z Euro doesn't go far enough out, you can definitely see signifigantly less precipitation south of New England on HR 90.  Could be nothing... or something got ingested into the 18z models that dried things out for us...

1 hour ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

If Stein wasn't a thing....would we even care about drought? We'd just be talking about how boring the summer is.

Drought is weather. And parts of the region are in severe drought, my locale included. The stein meme adds some humor to the discussion but people still are concerned about their gardens, lawns, and trees being stressed by the lack of rain. So yes, we would still care without Mr. Stein… IMO…

Ooohhhh… two more chances… caught this cool cloud formation as well right around sunset walking the dog.

Finally something got through! Came right through town had down ours for 30-45 minutes. Probably around .50”. 
 

EDIT: All stations around me are reporting between 1.25” and 1.50”. Just what we needed!

LOL… gotta love those storms just dying at the RI border every time. It’s like they don’t want to pay those tolls!  

4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Is there a place where I can get detailed historical SST plots for the region? This is OT from the heat/humidity/drought, but 26C seems much further north than usual, though there's no depth under that. 

not sure if this is what you are looking for…

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

Not a drop…

Terrible… and HRRR was no better until about 2 hours until heavier precip was supposed to move in.

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

haha...  Heat?  In New England, straight through October -

That's never happened because Earth can't do that here.   Maybe in the late Paleocene-Eocene Epoch that happened...but then again, that long ago... this region had yet to come out of Plate Tectonics.

We can have hot summers that go into warm falls ..sure... but there are always breaks.  

I know, I know... I was being sarcastic there... based on some historical posts in this months thread.  That being said, I do remember some one or two week streaks of the HHH's, even if the temps weren't always maxing.  This summer has been providing us with noticeable breaks, which is nice, at least IMO.

13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

But yeah, the point stands...likely a hot stretch returning.  Even though those maps are way overdone.

Yes the ensembles are pointing in that direction as well.  One thing to consider that the models haven't been picking up in the extended long range are the "breaks" like today with slightly cooler temps and dew points between the HHH's.  Still don't see a "straight through to October" scenario coming as some may have been hoping.  Every time you see that unfold on the models in the long range it disappears into some moderating frontal passages in the medium-short range.

Well that sucked. Just totally hit a wall and completely dissipated… dang…

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Lol you poor souls wanting storms around here. 

Hey I just want some measurable rain . Is that too much to ask for lol?

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Can severe rains be a thing and count as severe? 

I would gladly take severe rain since I have a hayfield in most of my yard at the moment. It ain’t pretty… reservoirs could use a good drink too.

It’s like they are reading this thread at BOX… 

645 PM Update: Activity has certainly been less than impressive so far, but we are still seeing scattered thunderstorms across interior SNE tonight with some additional activity trying to get going across RI. Environment remains favorable for thunderstorms tonight with plenty of instability, effective shear, and marginal mid level lapse rates. So why the lack of storms? We think it may be related to the storms that tracked through NYC and Long Island earlier today, which effectively robbed the moisture that was available to feed the storms in our area. That, plus some low and mid level drying behind pre-frontal trough, were probably the main reasons. Going forward, we still expect to see scattered showers/storms tonight ahead of cold front, especially since environmental parameters remain favorable. Some storms could briefly pulse up and become severe, or we may also see small bows or line segments with potential for localized wind damage. Otherwise, wind shift to the NW behind the front which should usher in MUCH drier air for the late-evening/overnight period. Dewpoints upper 50s to lower 60s should be more common in the interior and coastal plain, with lower to mid 60s across the south coast, Cape and Islands by daybreak. Lows to range from the mid 50s to lower 60s north and west of I-95, to the mid to upper 60s across southeast New England.