bristolri_wx

1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

How much for Philly?

About two feet...

57 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

HRRR wetter now. 

But how are the IBM, Commodore 64, and TRS-80 models?  Still dry?

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I know we’ve had Steffi for at least one winter.

What a backhanded statement.  The model aced the snowfall forecasts several times.

1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said:

Straight up just an typical Nina prediction

Yeah that's what I got from it as well.  Not much nuance there.  Plus the CPC never gets into details anyway, but it's interesting to look at nonetheless to see where they are leaning...

CPC DJF JFM

I apologize for taking us off track.  To make @Typhoon Tip happy, here's on-topic subject matter, with a link to Accuweather's 2022-2023 US winter forecast:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/accuweather-2022-2023-us-winter-forecast/1252283

Highlights for us:

• La Niña, volume 3
• Average snowfall SNE/NH/VT, above average ME
• Slightly above average temps
• Average precip
• Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano may have lingering effects on this winter's weather.

"Boston may end up being the only major city along the Interstate 95 corridor that finishes the winter with near-normal snowfall. AccuWeather long-range forecasters are predicting that 40 to 50 inches will accumulate in the city, around the average snowfall amount of 49.2 inches. Last winter, Boston finished the season with 54 inches of snow with 23.5 inches falling during a blizzard on Jan. 29."

2 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

 

Ha, I was thinking this though:
 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Most outlooks will be out over the next month, anyway....mine will be out in about a month and Raindance in like a week.

Yeah I edited my post that your thread from last season ran right though 11/30/21.  It is long-range winter forecast season!! 

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I'm sorry about that. I allowed him to hijack the thread.

Maybe time for a new Winter 2022-2023 thread.  A thread that's more confident!  A thread that is dry and secure! 

EDIT: The Winter 2021-2022 thread did run from March through November 30 last season... so maybe it's to early to call this one lol!

16 hours ago, raindancewx said:

It's no meltdown. You literally said you were fairly confident in a warm Neutral as late as 6/16. It's wonderful that you finally realized that conditions colder than last year for almost half a year weren't going to result in an El Nino I guess.

 2021  25.55  25.75  26.48  27.10  27.47  27.45  26.90  26.32  26.17  25.77  25.76  25.54
 2022  25.59  25.85  26.30  26.70  26.81  26.97  26.59  25.89 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99

I've yet to see anything of value from you my entire time here. I sure as hell don't read your blog.

@raindancewxI'm not quite sure what's rubbing you the wrong way, but you need to get over it.  I've been following this thread since it started since Winter is the weather season I'm most interested in.  Numerous times you have posted your opinions here on this thread, and they've been met with interest, none negative.  Yet, when posters have replied to you with additional questions or more opinion, you really haven't provided any.

I went back and re-read this entire thread just because it's a slow work day (I'm stuck in front of a computer 65 hrs a week), and only once Ray mentioned that he thought he might have some confidence that a warm-neutral ENSO state would occur this winter season.  And in fact, a week later he posted a link to his blog that he was NOT confident that would be the case, and pointed to a weak La Niña instead as more of a possibility.  You didn't need a PhD in English to get the point.

I enjoy reading your long term forecast and analog ideas when you post them here, but I'm not sure why the lash-out at Ray.  He doesn't need me or anyone else to defend him.  Nobody here is making guaranteed Fall/Winter ENSO forecasts in the April through June timeframe, and I don't believe anyone here thought that to be the case as this thread has evolved.  If anything, there's been much more chatter about 24-25 being a warm ENSO than anything else.

I highly recommend not following the "Summer's Eve Guide to Posting on Internet Forums, 3rd edition." vebatim, as it does you no favors.  Now back to our regularly scheduled winter conjecture.

3 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

They are replacing generator and fuel tanks as part of maintenance.  I think KGYX was down last week.

https://www.weather.gov/media/box/KBOX_SLEP.pdf

Besides, their uptime minus scheduled maintenance numbers are quite good considering the radar system was installed in the late 80's and early 90's, and are operational 24/7.  Some parts of the 88D radar system are still from the original installs and only get replaced when they fail (from what I've read).

1 minute ago, Supernovice said:

Why is the BOS radar down for days at a time at least once every 2 months? What a joke

They are replacing generator and fuel tanks as part of maintenance.  I think KGYX was down last week.

https://www.weather.gov/media/box/KBOX_SLEP.pdf

Seems like chances are good for a decent soaker S of the Pike as many have been saying...

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

IBM hi res is dry

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Euro also ticked north by a good margin.

GFS and Euro have been ticking north every cycle for last day or so.

1 minute ago, Rmine1 said:

Landfall in Cayo Costa

How do they determine this officially?  That eye is pretty wide when looking at it on radar...

23 hours ago, Sportybx said:

Captiva beach right into pine island and matlacha Florida , 142 mph with storm surge at 14 feet ..,,,!


.

Good call, 23 hours out!

Bonita Beach/130 MPH

Too bad remnants aren’t forecasted to make it here. Would have probably been the final mail in the coffin on the drought  in Southern New England. Lots of areas still in moderate on Drought Monitor despite all the rain we have gotten this past month…

HRRR looks interesting for RI and SE MA a little later tonight from that activity entering CT now. NAM doesn't have it, but it also missed it on initialization. Doesn't look like much though, maybe some rumbles of thunder and downpours.

53 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Spent afternoon and evening @ Newport . Newport bouy jacked up to 9.5ft @18 after 6 which explains why some absolutely massive sets appeared around 630 . 

Sachusest Beach in Middletown was packed with surfers on my way home from work.  Wish I had a chance to take a pic.

Also looks like storm slows down a little as it does it's extra-tropical transition over Nova Scotia.  Seems like it lingers there spinning for a day or so before it regains forward speed...

51 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Was I in a coma? I thought this was headed into the Yucatán or Florida panhandle?

Could still be a panhandle storm. GFS is still in that area on op and ensembles. Both Euro and GFS are east last few days.

I believe a couple of posters said no to the Yucatán when brought up but it may have been jokingly…

Wowza.

23 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Lagers are real beer, they're actually a lot harder to brew and to get that nice clean crisp flavour 

No one is claiming lager isn't real beer.  People are claiming that Coors Light is not real beer.  I fully support this claim.  You drink it when you have to, just like Miller Lite or Bud Light.  But I don't think most people who enjoy beer choose it by choice...   There are other good lager beers out there!

That second line looks juicy for RI and SE MA on the 12z HRRR.