bristolri_wx

Radar looks juicy for the I95 corridor. Lots of convection out over the Atlantic moving NNE.

Noticed today that GYX did the BOX AFD. How often does that happen?

16 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Agreed.  Although for my work anything above 75 isn’t ideal. 

I mean sunny, 75, with 50’s dews would be ideal. Down here we were close enough. 

Great weather for first little league practice of the season this evening. It was like watching a live version of the Bad News Bears but all the kids had fun.

Looks like the local little league org doesn’t provide as much equipment these days as when I played 35 years ago. Is that the case all over?

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

This weather sucks

Bring on winter 

Oh come on man. I love winter as much as the next person but 80’s with 50 degree dews is just about perfect weather.

It’s those f-ing upper 60’s and 70’s dews that make summer (and sometimes spring) miserable at times. This is nice considering the shit winter we had on the coastal plain. I’ll take it.

On 3/27/2023 at 3:13 AM, Torch Tiger said:

Imagine

The long range heat forecast in clown range is as hopeful and accurate as long range snow forecast in clown range.

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't know ...it seems they all spent time on and off with that thing next week. 

The Euro may suck donkey ballz now but this isn't the test case to point that out.  They're all pieces of shit at this time of year anyway...

We are in a longitudinal pattern and no model typically does well in that regime, ...now adding that to spring vagaries on top ...?

There's no 'looking forward' to the next run of any guidance if one is being rational about limitations ...

Big warm up in April possible, btw

I think the fast flow pattern that we have had setup the last few winters at our latitude really messes with the models for our area when it comes to cyclogenesis. It’s not like any one model sticks out as being better than the other last few seasons they have all had their hits and misses, but what’s been lacking is accurate modeling of mid-level and surface low tracks, and the ability to provide more fine tuned snowfall in the short range; and when I say accurate, we are talking about the usual threading the needle required to figure out where snow will fall in our varied geography in New England.

Hopefully the pattern is different next winter and we have both a better outcome winter with forecasts and the actual weather that accompanies them.

4 hours ago, weathafella said:

For sne under 1500 feet only..

 

 

Yup...
 

10 hours ago, George001 said:

The Pope did a great job with his forecasts this winter, I have to give credit where it’s due. Analogs and the long range models are good tools but the Pope correctly assessed that the presence of geese in November was a red flag. Animals have no sense of the calendar, the way they tell the seasons are changing is based off the present weather, the landscape, etc. Being able to accurately prepare for the change of seasons is literally a matter of life and death for animals, as they are forced to endure a level of exposure to the elements that we have the luxury of avoiding. They are far more in tune with the elements than we are, so I do think seasonal forecasters would benefit from incorporating analysis of animal behavior into their forecasts. Yeah it’s a strange method yeah, but if it works it works. I thought it was dumb at first too,  but throughout the winter it became more and more clear that I was being too closed minded. Instead of just discounting something because it seems dumb, strange, or is telling us something we don’t want to hear, it’s good to keep an open mind. 

2023-2024 winter forecast research already underway.

If you're getting snow enjoy it!  Snowed here for an hour.  Back to rain. What stuck is gone. 0.0" 

5 hours ago, bristolri_wx said:

The HRRR still makes the finale for this storm interesting for the coastal plain.  Pinwheeling the phasing lows south through Mass. Bay and the Cape.  Just to the west of that things will be quite "violent" for a few hours...  We are in the HRRR wheelhouse now inside of 12 hrs so lets see how well it forecasts this...

And 5 hours makes a big difference.  HRRR now has the low about 100 miles east of where it was previously modeled when I posted over the next few hours, out east of Chatham rather than crossing the canal.  Probably means less snow for my location, maybe an inch if we're lucky...

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gives another inch of QPF after 11am for ORH eastward down into N half of RI. Southern part gets over a half inch but has to wait for dryslot to sink south. 

Yeah, just feels like someone is going to get a surprise 4"-8" out of this where 1-3" or 2-4" is being forecasted....

The HRRR still makes the finale for this storm interesting for the coastal plain.  Pinwheeling the phasing lows south through Mass. Bay and the Cape.  Just to the west of that things will be quite "violent" for a few hours...  We are in the HRRR wheelhouse now inside of 12 hrs so lets see how well it forecasts this...

Just curious, did this run of the NAM have the recon data?

Just now, MuddyWx said:

anyone know how they assimilate this collected data so that it's available for models? like when would models ingest/use this new data?

Usually it's the next model runs after all the data is ingested.

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Seems like a bit of a waste of resources, but I don’t write the checks. 

They probably have just as much interest as we do as to why the models can't figure this one out in a more agreeable way.  Perhaps extra data can assist... The storm is going to be affecting several million people in some way.

Forecasting weather is not my day job, so with that caveat, it's definitely interesting to see a storm that's actually starting where the models can't come to a consensus on a 12-36 hour snowfall forecast.  Amazing.

It's looking like the coastal plain is kinda cooked on this one.  My expectation will be for a surprise if we get some snow as the storm moves east rather than disappointment in not getting the snow others are receiving.  Not surprising considering it's mid-March and there's really not much arctic air around.

Just now, TalcottWx said:

Whats the diff between those 2 snowfall maps? Is one kuchie? 

It's in 24 hour increments.  They don't have total snowfall maps for HREF, at least not for the price I want to pay ($0).  First map is 12z Mon to 12x Tue, the second is 12z Tue to 12Z Wed.

You can see why the bust potential in both directions exists.  It's warmth vs rates.  Probably anywhere in the coastal plain that's close to freezing and gets under a heavy band risks switching over to very heavy wet snow as it brings the cold down to the surface.  And at the same time, the warmth could win out and that's just all heavy rain.  Challenging forecast!

Juicy...

HREF's... don't think we need the final pane...

9 minutes ago, dmcginvt said:

exactly

 

As said many times in this forum, no one lives at 500mb. 

12 minutes ago, dmcginvt said:

THe irony? The canadian models are good for me up here in VT and have never changed.  But you guys slam them left and right.  NAM and GFS have improved here as well, after going so far as saying Im getting ZERO.  Who really knows they are just models that cant deal with phasing.  And they've all done poorly this winter.  But if there's a model that gets most dissed it's the canadian both long range and hi res.  Sure the icon and ukmet probably top that chart, but it's gfs/euro/gefs/eps/ nam that everyone follows.  Until the gem or reggie fits your narrative.  then they are ok.  I personally feel like they arent ok and are usually wrong.  And thus agree with the masses.  But until someone does independant verification on all of them how we do we really know

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/headlines/acc_31days/