bristolri_wx

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Is this dangerous? I have absolutely no idea how long it’s been like this? Given the rim look below, it looks weathered, so possibly a while

Yeah that could blow at some point. More likely at high speeds or in warmer weather. You should replace that tire ASAP IMO for you and your vehicles safety.

Sorry, call me an optimist but this is all I can think in my head after reading this forum the last few days:

Maybe Winter 22-23 will turn out to be a turd, but we have had several good to great winters that started with shitty Decembers and grinch storms right before Christmas. Can’t give up on things less than a third of the way through.

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The kids have no more Xmas gifts left, so you're up, slugger..

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The kids have no more Xmas gifts left, so you're up, slugger..

Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

It's one truly is a done deal. It's not coming back in any way shape or form. Now for separate storm followed on its heels by some odd chance, that would be a different story. But this particular storm. It is absolutely 100% not for the Northeast

It’s a volatile pattern for the model accuracy in the medium to long range. Things don’t look good but I wouldn’t give up for another 48 hours or so if your hope is for a colder snowier outcomes.

Down in the coastal plain
It was always forecasted as rain
So there was no pain
When the snow
Did not show.

13 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Hopefully it's a very strong storm and hugger track, so NNE gets crushed even if they mix some.

3 hours ago, MRVexpat said:

Thanks! Interesting but I was more curious to its anecdotal accuracy/usefulness as a high res model.  

Personally I look at it on TT and Pivotal, but I don’t think it has a lot of weight on its own. I believe the biggest use case for many of the WRF based models are being part of the SREF and HREF ensemble forecast packages. I’m sure there are mets here who have more facts to back that up than I do.

20 minutes ago, MRVexpat said:

Also WTF is a HRW WRF-ARW and does anyone care about it?

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/docs/NCEP_PDD_MAG.pdf

Are people still pissed about the recent GFS upgrade? 

Bing Crosby has entered that chat.

21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

We get at least one of these runs a year. 

I weenied you for that post only because I can’t weenie myself for being excited about that map lol!

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

   Go years without a double digit storm like I did when I was a kid and see what happens. 

You end up a meteorologist? This is why support systems are in place, to keep our world safe from this result. 

19 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

My wunderground suddenly giving me 10” on 22-23

Wowza. Aren’t those wunderground forecasts generated from the Amiga model? 

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I may need to come out of retirement and reopen a Panic Room up here. 

Last years Winter Panic thread was started on 12/1/21, so we're two weeks late this year.  Time to induce!

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Such a disappointing evolution. 

Holy shit, do I need an el nino.

Interesting information... taken with a grain of salt.

https://www.washington.edu/news/2022/10/03/study-suggests-la-nina-winters-could-keep-on-coming/

26 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Surprise incoming for RI? 
 

so close here 

Juicy band overhead. Making up for the snow hole earlier lol… 

Snow hole… 33… holding steady at 1/2” 

Pleasantly surprised with the 1/2” on the grass here. Not much sticking to pavement. We’ve had a few more lulls here than others (as usual).  Definitely feels festive out there. 

1 hour ago, George001 said:

The low in the mid west is turning into a Miller B and looks like it’s somehow pulling the coastal low in to absorb it. I…. have no idea what I’m looking at here and what this would look like if you extrapolate it

We are going to be going through a pattern transition. The operational surface maps are going to be hot garbage outside of five days while this is taking place. I wouldn't take anything verbatim outside of five days at the moment. Stick with ensembles days 6+...

2 hours ago, George001 said:

The Pope is very angry today, some shit must have gone down at church. I’d bet he caught a certain Brooklyn cop looking at weather models during a sermon or something.

8 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Is there a modal upgrade today? What's being updated.

https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf2/scn22-104_gfs.v16.3.0.pdf

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Saturday May be the last torch for awhile. Could be low 60s.

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Yes it’s a good look and I’d take it a million ways from last December. But when asked how I felt about snow, I think it’s wise to approach it more conservatively for you and I. But as I said….I can see how this would be good for almost all of us too. I just don’t have the information in front of me at this moment to make that call. 

This can't be stressed enough!  Regardless of the outcome, there's definitely more chances for wintery weather coming up based on the pattern forecasted compared to the December 2021 pattern which was terrible for us.

Wow, can't believe that the December thread is 17 pages long already and it's not even 12/1.  Even the last 18 hours worth of posts have been kind of crazy.

I'm not sure what the fuss is about.  I'm no met, but it's just nice to be in the ballpark of a favorable pattern in December, regardless of the outcome.  Go back the last few years, and there wasn't anything like this really modeled or discussed in December model runs.  Even if it doesn't turn out exactly as we hope, it should be a volatile pattern with chances for all sorts of weather outcomes.  It definitely does not look like last year, so already that's going to be an improvement.

I'm just hoping for seasonable weather around Christmas.  Whether there's snow on the ground, that's always tough, especially where I am, but there's been too many grinch storms last few years where I'm driving home on Christmas Eve at 10PM and its 50 degrees and foggy.  If this anticipated pattern is delayed a few days, I'm not sweating it, with the hope it lasts through Christmas, even if it ends up dry and cold.

Back to your regularly scheduled early December trolling and bickering.

4 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

This forum is like a reality shit show , it’s great . 

Fixed that for you.