Jump to content

bristolri_wx

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,949

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by bristolri_wx

    December 2022 Obs/Disc

    in New England

    Posted

    1 hour ago, George001 said:

    image.thumb.png.a9519a0f2b5f73e2e1c6ff99f71dece5.pngThe low in the mid west is turning into a Miller B and looks like it’s somehow pulling the coastal low in to absorb it. I…. have no idea what I’m looking at here and what this would look like if you extrapolate it

    We are going to be going through a pattern transition. The operational surface maps are going to be hot garbage outside of five days while this is taking place. I wouldn't take anything verbatim outside of five days at the moment. Stick with ensembles days 6+...

    December 2022 Obs/Disc

    in New England

    Posted

    3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

    Yes it’s a good look and I’d take it a million ways from last December. But when asked how I felt about snow, I think it’s wise to approach it more conservatively for you and I. But as I said….I can see how this would be good for almost all of us too. I just don’t have the information in front of me at this moment to make that call. 

    This can't be stressed enough!  Regardless of the outcome, there's definitely more chances for wintery weather coming up based on the pattern forecasted compared to the December 2021 pattern which was terrible for us.

    December 2022 Obs/Disc

    in New England

    Posted

    Wow, can't believe that the December thread is 17 pages long already and it's not even 12/1.  Even the last 18 hours worth of posts have been kind of crazy.

    I'm not sure what the fuss is about.  I'm no met, but it's just nice to be in the ballpark of a favorable pattern in December, regardless of the outcome.  Go back the last few years, and there wasn't anything like this really modeled or discussed in December model runs.  Even if it doesn't turn out exactly as we hope, it should be a volatile pattern with chances for all sorts of weather outcomes.  It definitely does not look like last year, so already that's going to be an improvement.

    I'm just hoping for seasonable weather around Christmas.  Whether there's snow on the ground, that's always tough, especially where I am, but there's been too many grinch storms last few years where I'm driving home on Christmas Eve at 10PM and its 50 degrees and foggy.  If this anticipated pattern is delayed a few days, I'm not sweating it, with the hope it lasts through Christmas, even if it ends up dry and cold.

    Back to your regularly scheduled early December trolling and bickering.

    • Like 3

    November 2022 OBS/DISC

    in New England

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

    Have you ever seen that guy that does a YouTube videos Direct Weather? I don't think he's a weather guy, he just takes the models and just posts them on there like that's what's going to happen. His latest video he showed the GFS and that there's a big warm bubble that's going to take over in December. I kind of think that's a little premature.

    He's very enthusiastic but everything is major, or a monster, or humongous. . I definitely get a chuckle out of his videos. But kudos for his enthusiasm

    Terrible… That’s YouTube monetization for you. I could make a good amount of money too posting the NAM for every snow threat. Model maps without context are the CNN/Fox News of weather forecasting.

    • Like 1

    November 2022 OBS/DISC

    in New England

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

    it sure doesn't seem as though the pattern change will be "complete by the 25th"

    What are you talking about??? At the time it was predicted temp anomalies were +20 and models (and some posters) were hesitant to break the pattern. The last 10 days we’ve gone from +20 to normal/slightly below. What part of the pattern change did you not see occur.

    For those that enjoy winter, seeing things return to climo is a good thing, even if it doesn’t result in violent blizzards before Thanksgiving.

    • Thanks 1
    • Haha 1

    November 2022 OBS/DISC

    in New England

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

    Through December 9th, wow.  nearly snowless

     

     

    gfs_asnow_neus_65.png

    Thanks for posting this!!! Hopefully your post has the same results as Stein posting 384 QPF maps a few months back. Pretty sure it didn’t rain for 6 months on those 384 hr runs. Have a Happy Thanksgiving, be sure not to torch your turkey! :)

    • Haha 2

    November 2022 OBS/DISC

    in New England

    Posted

    1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

    Got up to 73 here. But right now 67F so slowly starting CAA. 
     

    As for beyond today, euro pretty close to starting interior as a burst of snow. Mostly N of pike but can’t rule out a few flakes at start south of pike on early Wednesday morning. Euro has a solid advisory event for NNE. Maybe low
     

    Tip is also right about the model guidance still being divergent on what happens beyond next weekend. Some try to relax the flow and go to seasonably mild weather (but not epic torch levels like we saw so far this month)…and others like GGEM keep the cold around. 

    My non scientific gut feeling is that the below normal cold hangs around a little longer. I think we are seeing the usual model waffling around a major pattern change that is afoot… 

    • Confused 1

    November 2022 OBS/DISC

    in New England

    Posted

    5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

    Well I was comparing the EC weeklies and then using the 6-10 day from the latest EPS to show how bad the weeklies did from week 3 initialized on 10/27. My guess is the CFS weeklies also showed a torch too. 

    I’ve been recently taken an interest in the 00z 840 HR GEFS ensemble runs that are available on TT. They are usually a day behind to complete. IMO, not as good as the Euro weeklies but better than the CFS weeklies. They might have even been more into this cold anomaly setup earlier than the others. Most of the output can be separated into 5 day intervals. Not sure how others (especially mets) feel about it…

    • Like 1
×
×
  • Create New...