bristolri_wx

Yup, it's drying out on the HRRR as well.  Each run since 00z has been less... grrr...

I’m feeling bullish on rain tomorrow. Good chances for up to 1” east of the CT river, though there will be pockets of winners and losers like in any good coastal we get.

Not surprising we get an anomalous low, during an anomalous pattern, during an anomalous drought. 
 

We’re due!

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

We may get some rain here… but my guess is a Nam solution will be more correct than the euro 

Article is from June but interesting to get some background on upgraded compute for NOAA models:

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/us-supercomputers-for-weather-and-climate-forecasts-get-major-bump

Next 35 days on the GFS Ensemble 00z 8/13 Run...

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think it’s more a s/w issue to be honest. 

While the 18z Euro doesn't go far enough out, you can definitely see signifigantly less precipitation south of New England on HR 90.  Could be nothing... or something got ingested into the 18z models that dried things out for us...

1 hour ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

If Stein wasn't a thing....would we even care about drought? We'd just be talking about how boring the summer is.

Drought is weather. And parts of the region are in severe drought, my locale included. The stein meme adds some humor to the discussion but people still are concerned about their gardens, lawns, and trees being stressed by the lack of rain. So yes, we would still care without Mr. Stein… IMO…

Ooohhhh… two more chances… caught this cool cloud formation as well right around sunset walking the dog.

Finally something got through! Came right through town had down ours for 30-45 minutes. Probably around .50”. 
 

EDIT: All stations around me are reporting between 1.25” and 1.50”. Just what we needed!

LOL… gotta love those storms just dying at the RI border every time. It’s like they don’t want to pay those tolls!  

4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Is there a place where I can get detailed historical SST plots for the region? This is OT from the heat/humidity/drought, but 26C seems much further north than usual, though there's no depth under that. 

not sure if this is what you are looking for…

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

Not a drop…

Terrible… and HRRR was no better until about 2 hours until heavier precip was supposed to move in.

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

haha...  Heat?  In New England, straight through October -

That's never happened because Earth can't do that here.   Maybe in the late Paleocene-Eocene Epoch that happened...but then again, that long ago... this region had yet to come out of Plate Tectonics.

We can have hot summers that go into warm falls ..sure... but there are always breaks.  

I know, I know... I was being sarcastic there... based on some historical posts in this months thread.  That being said, I do remember some one or two week streaks of the HHH's, even if the temps weren't always maxing.  This summer has been providing us with noticeable breaks, which is nice, at least IMO.

13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

But yeah, the point stands...likely a hot stretch returning.  Even though those maps are way overdone.

Yes the ensembles are pointing in that direction as well.  One thing to consider that the models haven't been picking up in the extended long range are the "breaks" like today with slightly cooler temps and dew points between the HHH's.  Still don't see a "straight through to October" scenario coming as some may have been hoping.  Every time you see that unfold on the models in the long range it disappears into some moderating frontal passages in the medium-short range.

Well that sucked. Just totally hit a wall and completely dissipated… dang…

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Lol you poor souls wanting storms around here. 

Hey I just want some measurable rain . Is that too much to ask for lol?

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Can severe rains be a thing and count as severe? 

I would gladly take severe rain since I have a hayfield in most of my yard at the moment. It ain’t pretty… reservoirs could use a good drink too.

It’s like they are reading this thread at BOX… 

645 PM Update: Activity has certainly been less than impressive so far, but we are still seeing scattered thunderstorms across interior SNE tonight with some additional activity trying to get going across RI. Environment remains favorable for thunderstorms tonight with plenty of instability, effective shear, and marginal mid level lapse rates. So why the lack of storms? We think it may be related to the storms that tracked through NYC and Long Island earlier today, which effectively robbed the moisture that was available to feed the storms in our area. That, plus some low and mid level drying behind pre-frontal trough, were probably the main reasons. Going forward, we still expect to see scattered showers/storms tonight ahead of cold front, especially since environmental parameters remain favorable. Some storms could briefly pulse up and become severe, or we may also see small bows or line segments with potential for localized wind damage. Otherwise, wind shift to the NW behind the front which should usher in MUCH drier air for the late-evening/overnight period. Dewpoints upper 50s to lower 60s should be more common in the interior and coastal plain, with lower to mid 60s across the south coast, Cape and Islands by daybreak. Lows to range from the mid 50s to lower 60s north and west of I-95, to the mid to upper 60s across southeast New England.

Heard the rumbles of thunder as the storms passed by 15 miles to the north. Sun is out at the moment so maybe some brief heat up of the atmosphere can let that last line move though here with at least some rain!

A glimmer of hope still...

Quote

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
409 PM Update:

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 502 remains in effect until 800 PM,
and on the waters/beaches, both high surf advisories in effect
for the south coast and small craft advisories. Have cancelled
the Heat Advisory, though. While still very humid, limited
heating has tempered heat indices to the point where oppressive
heat indices are no longer expected.

Earlier isolated thunderstorms mainly north of the Mass Pike
have shifted offshore in the Gulf of Maine. Additional
convection associated with the actual cold front is now making
its way into far western Franklin County MA SW into portions of
eastern NY. Additional storms were developing in SW CT. These
storms remain in a favorable parameter space for severe weather
with MLCAPEs in the 1500-2000 J/kg range and effective shear
values between 45-55 kt. While storms have been slow to deepen,
perhaps a consequence of earlier cloudiness and intervals of
light showers and the lack of steeper lapse rates between
850-500 mb, 18z HRRR seems to want to fill this cold frontal
convection into a more solid line in the mid to late afternoon
as it moves into the I-91 corridor/central MA before moving ESE
through the Hartford- Providence-Boston areas closer to sundown.
The 12z NAM-3km also wants to do something similar with these
storms. Will also have to monitor the widely scattered storms
near coastal southern CT for potential thunder risks to the
south coast and potentially into Cape Cod. Given the parameter
space, stil think we`re not out of the woods as of yet, so have
maintained the Watch and the enhanced wording. Still think the
bulk of the severe weather risk is through 8 PM, though some of
the guidance simulates continued t-storms near the southern
coast until late this evening. While not imminent yet, if severe
weather evolves the way the HRRR thinks it will into a later
period of time, we could consider a local extension of the Watch
in time. Will reassess this later.

We shall see...

Quote

130 PM Update:

Update to issue Severe Thunderstorm Watch 502 until 800 PM for
all of SNE and upgraded thunderstorm attributes to severe
(damaging winds and large hail).

Shield of mid-level cloud cover across areas south of the Mass
Pike, with most active convection mainly along the NH/MA border.
Recent composite radar imagery however shows some shallow
convective towers getting going in western Worcester County.
Despite the cloud cover, due to high dewpoints in the mid 70s
MLCAPEs are still in the 2000 J/kg range with little to nil
MLCIN to inhibit convection. Steering flow/storm motions is
still from the WSW which should keep active convection in
southern NH to that area for the time being. While these
isolated storms in central MA will continue to move NE into the
Merrimack Valley, as 850-500 mb flow begins to veer to the W,
expect storms to develop and/or shift southeast during the later
afternoon to the mid-evening hours, with guidance indicating
storms making it all the way to the South Coast and even Cape
Cod into early tonight. Damaging winds and heavy rain are the
main risks. A brief tornado is possible, but as flow veers to
the W later this afternoon, that reduces the length of the low-
level hodograph and reduces 0-1km SRH.

 

Not feeling confident this is going to happen but we still have a few hours for some surprises to occur.

1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

Looks terrible here, but that was the forecast. 

Yup... the radar looked promising this morning with the line of convection associated with the front looking pretty robust in PA and NY... but it hit a wall in southern New England so far.... some cells here and there but overall more .  Not sure what the fuss was about from the various forecasting agencies... maybe I'll reverse jinx myself with this post.

HRRR says between 6pm to 1am to get some activity in RI/SE MA.  Let's see if that happens.  I would just be happy with heavy rain at this point, it's quite parched here, we've missed on almost every rain chance this month except for a couple.