bristolri_wx

I’ve been following this thread since it began several months ago. I’m not going to say this is a forecast by any means, but I have a good feeling about this upcoming 23/24 winter not being a ratter:

- Transition from La Niña to El Niño.

- Hard to be worse than last season for most areas outside of NNE.

- The weather pattern last several months has been almost the exact opposite of last year.

I know that’s probably as scientific as the farmer’s almanac, but I think there’s a high probability it’s going to end up being the case to at least get average snow and cold in most areas this winter and decent chances to be better.

Let’s return to the more scientific and research driven programming already in progress. 

On 9/1/2023 at 6:55 PM, MJO812 said:

Cfs cancels winter

Best sign yet this winter will be better than last year.

2 hours ago, tamarack said:

Floyd must have come close.  We had 5.9" RA and gusts to near 40, and we're pretty far inland.  That's "only" 24 years back.

Floyd was downgraded to TS and maybe even to TD before it got to New England. Tons of rain though.

Bob the eye went right over Bristol. Lots of damage here. I was 13 and remember helping remove tree branches and leaves all over the place.

Tornado warning in Providence.  Phones in the office going off with alerts!

Gotta say that the pattern this month has been for the stuff to get through all the way to the coast more than usual, or at least compared to the last few years. Usually the stuff that comes in from the west and northwest dies when it hits eastern RI, but we have had come straight through, even in a weakened state. Nothing severe with this one here but lots of lightning and heavy rain

Zip.. zero... zilch... nada...

2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

wow.

That’s a lot of anomalously warm water…

That random thunderstorm cell on the RI/E MA border looks like a ball bouncing down I-195 on the radar loop.  Cool rainbow from it as well.

12 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

With or without rain, yes, Luke Combs will probably be a disaster, at least in the crowd of drunk country fans.

He'll need to drive his Fast Car out of Foxboro if it rains too much!

Short range (HRRR) models really not initializing this line well.  Will probably hold up a little better moving west to east than forecasted.

Hopefully a quiet weather day as it looks like KOKX and KBOX radars are both down at the moment. Not much radar coverage in SE NE when that occurs…

This stream of precip goes all the way back to the Jersey coast. Gonna be real messy with this frontal boundary taking its time moving east. That whole blob may end up in RI and SE MA over next several hours.

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

RI underwater currently 

Yup I’m under a flash flood warning until 8. The Rain train is here. Just got the dog inside before the torrents.

Looks like that cluster of convection off NJ/LI is going to end the “dry” weather SE of I95 in MA and RI in a few hours.

14 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol nice melt but true

Can’t melt in this humidity. Not enough combustible materials. Consider it a sweat-down…

Why does anyone like high dew points?  High dew points just killed my basement dehumidifier.  High dew points are stressing my air conditioners and making them run less efficiently.  High dew points mean you start sweating within a few minutes of being outside from doing normal things like walking and breathing if you are in regular/normal physical shape.  High dew points affect the elderly and those with breathing issues even more.  Days like today are great and I even understand people that like the record heat but high dew points are just total shit.  Like sewage treatment plant total shit.



Shit.

This is quite a juicy 24 hour ensemble mean on the HREF...

33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We are well on way to a slightly AN temp summer and likely a record few summer. 2 weeks straight now of high dews with no breaks thru day 10

Hopefully an above normal summer temp wise leads to a below normal winter temp wise, and everyone wins!

Not gonna lie I’m welcoming this weather for the backlog of yard work I have. This out of shape middle aged man doesn’t mind the 50’s on a June weekend where I need to be outside for an extended period of time. Have been right on the edge of these spotty showers and patches of drizzle since yesterday. Wouldn’t be fun weather for any sort of outing though, took a drive through Colt State Park and it felt like March!

Radar looks juicy for the I95 corridor. Lots of convection out over the Atlantic moving NNE.

Noticed today that GYX did the BOX AFD. How often does that happen?

16 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Agreed.  Although for my work anything above 75 isn’t ideal. 

I mean sunny, 75, with 50’s dews would be ideal. Down here we were close enough. 

Great weather for first little league practice of the season this evening. It was like watching a live version of the Bad News Bears but all the kids had fun.

Looks like the local little league org doesn’t provide as much equipment these days as when I played 35 years ago. Is that the case all over?

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

This weather sucks

Bring on winter 

Oh come on man. I love winter as much as the next person but 80’s with 50 degree dews is just about perfect weather.

It’s those f-ing upper 60’s and 70’s dews that make summer (and sometimes spring) miserable at times. This is nice considering the shit winter we had on the coastal plain. I’ll take it.