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bristolri_wx

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Posts posted by bristolri_wx

    Winter 2022-2023 Conjecture

    in New England

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

    Yea, I'm sorry about that. I allowed him to hijack the thread.

    Maybe time for a new Winter 2022-2023 thread.  A thread that's more confident!  A thread that is dry and secure! :D

    EDIT: The Winter 2021-2022 thread did run from March through November 30 last season... so maybe it's to early to call this one lol!

    Winter 2022-2023 Conjecture

    in New England

    Posted

    16 hours ago, raindancewx said:

    It's no meltdown. You literally said you were fairly confident in a warm Neutral as late as 6/16. It's wonderful that you finally realized that conditions colder than last year for almost half a year weren't going to result in an El Nino I guess. 

     2021  25.55  25.75  26.48  27.10  27.47  27.45  26.90  26.32  26.17  25.77  25.76  25.54
 2022  25.59  25.85  26.30  26.70  26.81  26.97  26.59  25.89 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99

    I've yet to see anything of value from you my entire time here. I sure as hell don't read your blog.

    @raindancewxI'm not quite sure what's rubbing you the wrong way, but you need to get over it.  I've been following this thread since it started since Winter is the weather season I'm most interested in.  Numerous times you have posted your opinions here on this thread, and they've been met with interest, none negative.  Yet, when posters have replied to you with additional questions or more opinion, you really haven't provided any.

    I went back and re-read this entire thread just because it's a slow work day (I'm stuck in front of a computer 65 hrs a week), and only once Ray mentioned that he thought he might have some confidence that a warm-neutral ENSO state would occur this winter season.  And in fact, a week later he posted a link to his blog that he was NOT confident that would be the case, and pointed to a weak La Niña instead as more of a possibility.  You didn't need a PhD in English to get the point.

    I enjoy reading your long term forecast and analog ideas when you post them here, but I'm not sure why the lash-out at Ray.  He doesn't need me or anyone else to defend him.  Nobody here is making guaranteed Fall/Winter ENSO forecasts in the April through June timeframe, and I don't believe anyone here thought that to be the case as this thread has evolved.  If anything, there's been much more chatter about 24-25 being a warm ENSO than anything else.

    I highly recommend not following the "Summer's Eve Guide to Posting on Internet Forums, 3rd edition." vebatim, as it does you no favors.  Now back to our regularly scheduled winter conjecture.

    • Like 1

    October 2022 OBS/DISC

    in New England

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

    They are replacing generator and fuel tanks as part of maintenance.  I think KGYX was down last week.

    https://www.weather.gov/media/box/KBOX_SLEP.pdf

    Besides, their uptime minus scheduled maintenance numbers are quite good considering the radar system was installed in the late 80's and early 90's, and are operational 24/7.  Some parts of the 88D radar system are still from the original installs and only get replaced when they fail (from what I've read).

    Tracking the Tropics

    in New England

    Posted

    Too bad remnants aren’t forecasted to make it here. Would have probably been the final mail in the coffin on the drought  in Southern New England. Lots of areas still in moderate on Drought Monitor despite all the rain we have gotten this past month…

    Tracking the Tropics

    in New England

    Posted

    53 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

    Spent afternoon and evening @ Newport . Newport bouy jacked up to 9.5ft @18 after 6 which explains why some absolutely massive sets appeared around 630 . 

    Sachusest Beach in Middletown was packed with surfers on my way home from work.  Wish I had a chance to take a pic.

    • Like 3

    Tracking the Tropics

    in New England

    Posted

    51 minutes ago, Hoth said:

    Was I in a coma? I thought this was headed into the Yucatán or Florida panhandle?

    Could still be a panhandle storm. GFS is still in that area on op and ensembles. Both Euro and GFS are east last few days.

    I believe a couple of posters said no to the Yucatán when brought up but it may have been jokingly…

    • Thanks 1

    Wednesday, September 21, 2022 NOCTURNAL Severe Threat (or Technically 09.22.2022)

    in New England

    Posted

    23 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

    Lagers are real beer, they're actually a lot harder to brew and to get that nice clean crisp flavour 

    No one is claiming lager isn't real beer.  People are claiming that Coors Light is not real beer.  I fully support this claim.  You drink it when you have to, just like Miller Lite or Bud Light.  But I don't think most people who enjoy beer choose it by choice... :lol:  There are other good lager beers out there!

    • Like 1

    Tracking the Tropics

    in New England

    Posted

    Obviously taken with a grain of salt verbatim, but the HMON, HWRF, and GFS 12z runs on Fiona all have it sub 930 during it's extra-tropical transition.  HWRF has it 916Mb at HR 84.  Most likely not happening, but there is model consensus of this kind of "blowing up" right before it hits the maritimes as it starts its extra-tropical transition.  It's in the 940's though most of it's journey through the North Atlantic...

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