bristolri_wx

30 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

still 4 days plus days out I wouldnt say that yet

Just because something is possible doesn't mean it's going to happen.  There's a very high probability that this will be a nothing-burger for most, if not all, of New England.  There is a very low probability of other outcomes.  The NHC forecasts have been outlining this for a while now.

Lee really wants to interact with that Canadian shortwave and phase with it at 500mb.  If that shortwave slows down then Lee will move towards it.  Right now it goes right by into SE Canada and Lee follows it N/NNE.

Not certain by any means, but the trend all day on the GFS has been slightly east each run.

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

My guess is 0z comes west looking at hr 72 

Already turning NE by 75/78...

30 minutes ago, WJX231 said:

What about the 1896 San Ramon hurricane in August/Sept? Surprised nobody has mentioned that one. Took a Sandy-esq turn into SE Mass. Also interestingly, it was the same year of the last major hurricane in the Big Bend region before Idalia.

Excellent point.  Here's more info about that storm.  Similar track though it looks like it got much farther west than Lee will.

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

https://x.com/jimcantore/status/1701391568018538969?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

The most useful thing about this post is a direct link to this site:

http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products/realtime/tropical/

“Lee is likely to move over a cool SST wake left behind 
by Hurricanes Idalia and Franklin later this week, and cross over 
the north wall of the Gulf Stream by the end of the forecast period. 
The combination of cooler SSTs, an increase in shear, and dry air 
entrainment should cause a steady decay in strength late this week 
and over the weekend.”

3 minutes ago, Twitching Trucks said:

Jesus H Christ. You know what I love? Wading through dozens of bickering fool posts about who wants the end of the world and who doesn’t, just to get the one out of 10 that actually discuss weather and the science behind it. I’m not even knowledgeable enough to be called a neophyte here, but I love the weather…all the weather. It also effects my job, so I come down to these first 3 layers of hell to gain further insight about it…but damn, it’s getting painful to glean the useful bits out. Kick me out of you want, call me all of the name, I don’t really care, but you guys are nearly intolerable.


.

You must be new here… 

5 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Even a basic 40-50mph gust could uproot or snap a tree at this point

Truth. If we get moderate wind and rain from Lee it still could be a big mess.

It's been torrentially downpouring here in N. Providence for almost 2 hours now.  Radar estimated is at the 4-6" range were we are, and more to come.  Some reports of flooding...

4 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Lee would largely miss those warmer waters (assuming anyways). Historically, to get a significant cane to make landfall up here you need it to be hauling as it would have less time to weaken between being off the Carolina coast and a landfall up here. 

A slower moving storm traversing these colder waters though will give the storm ample time to undergo internal structural changes and evolution from tropical to ET

Agreed, and you provided a better map...

1 hour ago, joey2002 said:

 

00z eps only has a couple SNE landfalls 

I see that one ensemble member was run off @MJO812’s basement computer. So nice of him to donate computing resources to the ECMWF.

29 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That’s one way to look at it. The other is to look at all those right of mean tracks.

Lots of mediocre water temps for tropical with that EPS track due north at 67 W.  Misses out on the nice warm temps of the east coast of the US and the Gulf Stream until it hits 38 N... probably weakens more than modeled as it goes over those cooler temps.

13 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

LOL I got weenied for this?

 

BRING IT!

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s how 38 of as. Wet humid summer like this one and heavy rains week prior . If not Lee it’ll be the first ne later following week . One way or another, it’s coming 

That second storm has a much more of a track that has New England possibilities for landfall.  If that one forms like the GFS is hinting at, we'll need to watch it.

Let me know when the storm is forecasted to move here.  Long way to go...

1 hour ago, bristolri_wx said:

I'm not buying what the GEFS is selling.  The storm would be historic, because have we ever had a landfalling hurricane follow a track even close to any of the landfalling members have going?  It seems extremely rare for anything that starts to make that turn N before 70 W to make it here as a hurricane.  I guess any track is possible, but I still think Lee making a direct hit on New England based on the way the GEFS is forecasting is like 1%.  Now if Lee doesn't turn and takes a more traditional route with a drive by near Cape Hatteras, then we're cooking with gas - but not one model shows that happening.

LOL I got weenied for this?

 

Rain just finally arrived here.  Feel like there was a force field around us last two days lol...

I'm not buying what the GEFS is selling.  The storm would be historic, because have we ever had a landfalling hurricane follow a track even close to any of the landfalling members have going?  It seems extremely rare for anything that starts to make that turn N before 70 W to make it here as a hurricane.  I guess any track is possible, but I still think Lee making a direct hit on New England based on the way the GEFS is forecasting is like 1%.  Now if Lee doesn't turn and takes a more traditional route with a drive by near Cape Hatteras, then we're cooking with gas - but not one model shows that happening.

Trying to figure out why 12z Euro op was so much farther west of the 00z (been out all day catching up now)... seems like the only big difference is interaction with a short wave digging SE out of Canada pulls Lee NW.  So I guess that seems to be a key piece of the puzzle to keep an eye on, and we all know how great the models are forecasting Canadian waves of low pressure 7 or 8 days out. 

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

At least people can quiet down now. It looked great for 12hrs lol. 

I believe the term for what Lee has is “Premature Intensification”. There are medications and therapies that can help.

29 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You need to get it to 70W min for any chance for a LF up here.

75… even at 70 they usually miss us, as they rarely turn due north and stay that way.

6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

This is going Cat 6

Spinal Tap intensity scale lol.

That’s some very impressive strengthening in a short timeframe! Waiting for someone to drop or invent the term tropical bombogenesis on the internet soon! 

9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Ugh we are still 9 days out... definitely a trend in the right direction if you want a storm.  The EPS mean has been slowly marching west.  But still... Day 9 model run...