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bristolri_wx

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    Tropical Storm Henri

    in New England

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

    That might actually bring surge waters into downtown Providence in that scenario.

    I think who's a 1938 aficionado ...I'm almost certain there's a high-water mark around Town Hall that has the 1938 ... I may be fantasizing that ... but, that Buzzard Bay in a bad bad spot for that stream line analysis - heh

    Definitely a storm surge up the bay alignment... thankfully the hurricane barrier is still functional for Providence... other areas without a barrier not as lucky...

    • Like 1

    Tropical Storm Henri

    in New England

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

    Our son’s dorm is right on the Bay in Bristol RI.   Unfortunately he doesn’t move in until the 30th

    Those dorms at RWU are pretty sturdy.  There's a bunch of them that have weathered Gloria and Bob without any issues.  There's also a decent amount of elevation going up from the coast to the campus so storm surge shouldn't be too much of an issue where those buildings are located.

    • Like 1

    Tropical Storm Henri

    in New England

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

    That would be bad for Narragansett Bay. Damaging winds RI adjacent SE MA and CT east of river. Maybe TS gusts near BOS.

    Yup, this is the west scenario that I didn't want... lol...

    • Like 2

    Tropical Storm Henri

    in New England

    Posted

    I'm not quite convinced yet that this storm goes as far west as some of these models are indicating.  This isn't because I want a hurricane to pass right overhead like Bob did.  That was a mess in Bristol as the eye went right over us, though as many have mentioned it was entirely different setup.  However this westward track is all based on the ULL capturing the storm and forcing it westward at the end before EC transition.  While this is a tropical system, we've seen this scenario before with other low pressure systems where models like to capture a storm and keep it west, only for this not to occur exactly as modeled, or it happens later farther east.  I think the NHC with it's conservative guidance on this track is probably considering this as well.  It's an unusual track of approach for this type of storm and then the interaction is also unusual so I'm betting more common sense human forecasting is going to prevail in this one.

    • Thanks 1

    Tropical Storm Henri

    in New England

    Posted

    Quote 
    There is some uncertainty in the exact position of Henri given the 
recent aircraft fixes and the tilt of the vortex, but the initial 
motion appears to be northwestward at 6 kt.  A trough over the 
central Appalachians is expected to cut off tonight, and the 
combination of that feature and a building ridge to the 
east/northeast of Henri should cause the storm to turn northward 
tonight and accelerate in that direction on Saturday. Some of the 
models show a slight bend to the west around the time Henri is 
forecast to make landfall on Sunday, and there remains a fair amount 
spread in the guidance in where the center of Henri will come 
ashore.  The latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble members span a region 
from near New York City to Cape Cod for the landfall point.  Based 
on the latest consensus aids and initial position, the official 
track forecast is nudged to the west of the previous one and shows 
landfall occurring by late Sunday.  After day 3, Henri is forecast 
to eject northeastward across the Gulf of Maine.

The ongoing northerly shear is expected to decrease later today, and 
the global models show a favorable upper-level wind pattern 
developing over the storm later today through the weekend.  These 
more conducive atmospheric conditions combined with the warm Gulf 
Stream waters should allow Henri to strengthen to a hurricane 
tonight or early Saturday with additional intensification expected 
into Saturday night.  By early Sunday, however, Henri is forecast to 
cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream, and that should end its 
opportunity for strengthening. Although steady to rapid weakening is 
forecast while Henri moves over cooler waters south of New England, 
it will likely still be at or very near hurricane intensity when it 
reaches the coast. Post-tropical transition is forecast to occur in 
3 to 4 days, and the new forecast shows Henri dissipated by day 5, 
in agreement with most of the global models.

     

    Tropical Storm Henri

    in New England

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

    Should we repost the NHC director at the AMS conference PowerPoint on why no one should ever use the NAM for tropical systems 

    I think most of us are just joking around.  I don't think it's a conicidence they run the NAM before everyone goes to bed lol...

    • Like 1
    • Haha 1

    Tropical Storm Henri

    in New England

    Posted

    I don't believe the GEFS shown on Tropical Tidbits has the latest data ingestion from the recon flight.  I'm interested to see the 0z model suite with all that data ingested...  It's definitely odd that EPS is going in one direction and GEFS is going in the other...

    Tropical Storm Henri

    in New England

    Posted

    If you look at the GFS ensembles, if this thing gets west of 73 degrees longitude, that dramatically increases the chances of it running right up the coast into our area.  How far west it gets before it starts to move north seems to be the key with this one... 

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