bristolri_wx

I mean at this point if the Euro stays on point at 12z, then you just start mostly ignoring the other output unless you see really see drastic changes at 500mb and 700mb. @Ginx snewx has stressed this and I believe this too.  It's just so UNUSUAL for this type of disagreement this close in, but then again, this is an very anomalous setup, so maybe resolution isn't on your side in this scenario...  also, anything that NCEP is running with an FV3 core doesn't seem to be getting a good handle on this.  Something for them study after the storm if the Euro/NAM solution holds up.

6 minutes ago, WxFreak11 said:

I thought the NWS discontinued Blizzard Warnings years ago?

No more Blizzard Watch. They still have warnings.

2 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Agreed, a proper shepherds pie (not a shitty restaurant excuse for one) Is an awesome food!

There’s a lot of Irish pubs out there that make a great Shepard’s Pie, though home made is often the best.

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Ignore the Euro? Been rock solid and lead horse. Save a horse ....

Nope not saying that at all. The high-res models are just preventing me from being confident. More times than not the high res and the euro are in agreement at this range. It definitely could be an overly complex situation that’s causing divergence. The fact that the Euro has been solid for several runs in a row is a reason to stick with it for sure.

The Euro and the NAM seem to be on their own with the heavy precip and westward extent. Some of the other hi-res models aren’t as bullish for central and western New England. Wish this felt like a slam dunk for everyone but waking up still feel like there’s still some details to sort out today that will affect this board. Only consensus is for 12” or more east of 95/495… that’s about it and we are 18 hours from go… weird…

So no concern with the Hi-Res models being farther east with this thing?

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Btw, does someone have the 500 height anomaly correlation scores that show all the major models? I seem to have lost my link for it and a search around the ghastly ncep site (very user-unfriendly) and google has proved useless. 

It was posted somewhere in this thread near/during the 18z catastrophe yesterday…

2 minutes ago, skierinvermont said:

Growing up in SE CT where my parents still are, I'm fairly sure then have never seen 2'+ in 25 years.. I'm pretty sure that whole area from SE CT to couth coast MA is 0-2 times in 100+ years.

Yeah looking over records now usually just short of 24".

2 minutes ago, skierinvermont said:

Sure but you have to consider the downsloping and climo.. all the models show a gap in the snow there. SE CT, S RI and south shore of MA have basically never seen 24"+, maybe once, and 18"+ is extremely rare. 

And yet almost all the maps have these areas in either 18"+ or 24"+

I'm not discounting your theory it may end up being less in the locations you mentioned, but I'm sure that all of the locations you have mentioned have seen two feet of snow on a few occasions in the last 25 years.  But yes, very rare, and almost never a jackpot location in this setup.

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

look at the upper levels big changes 

Yeah looking at that now.  Also more noticeable on the surface after HR 54...

GFS doesn't seem that far west or improved on the Pivotal surface maps.  I'm not looking at the other levels though... maybe I'm missing something...

Hope we beefed up the American Weather server capacity for tonight.  It's gonna be busy in here lol.

It's insanity that 48 hours before a storm that mathematical probability ranges end-to-end getting spit out out are 8-38".  Amazing.

2 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

5 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

Barely…. But a good part of the cape is threatened. On second glance the Coast I think will be OK as long as nothing drastic happens.

The Cape is always "threatened".  It's right next to the ocean thats not frozen.  That's as much "accumulated snowfall" you'll see over the ocean on any storm.  The fact that it shows snow over the ocean means mixing most likely not going to be an issue.

53 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

0% chance we see blizzard watches

 

 

Let's add to the model watching fun and make "blizzard watch" a drinking game!

7:10 BOX DISCUSSION:

Details... Friday night through Saturday night... ***A Strong Winter Storm will impact southern New England Saturday*** After a jog east with the 12Z/18Z guidance yesterday, this evening`s 00Z models have ticked back west; a windshield wiper effect we often see in computer models leading up to these events and why you don`t want to hang your hat on one deterministic model run. This remains a decidedly chaotic forecast with decent run-to-run consistency in some models/ensembles, but large model-to-model discrepancies. One of the biggest struggles is how to resolve the upper air pattern with northern and southern stream energy that may phase leading to a more volatile system. The biggest outlier is the GFS which continues to depict a track well southeast of the 40/70 benchmark, while the NAM/Canadian/ECMWF are further northwest (if much slower, in the NAM`s case). For now the forecast continues to go with a blend of guidance, more or less in line with the ECMWF run which is a compromise between the GFS east and UKMET west. Ultimately the evolution of the parent 500 mb trough that digs into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys Friday night and Saturday will help to determine the track of the surface low. Confidence is high that this low will strengthen rapidly as it moves up the east coast, likely undergoing bombogenesis, meaning its central pressure drops at least 24 mb in 24 hours. This will bring the threat for significant snow, potentially damaging winds, and coastal flooding. Thinking this morning is that the significant snowfall threat will be centered over southeast Massachusetts, diminishing to the northwest. Given QPF of nearly 1.5 inches toward eastern MA and a cold column leading to snow-to-liquid ratios greater than 10:1, snowfall totals of 12 to 18 inches are possible; greater beneath any deformation band that sets up somewhere northwest of the low. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for eastern and central MA as well as eastern CT; this is where we have the highest confidence of significant snowfall. Strong, potentially damaging winds are also a significant hazard with this system given a 60 to 70 kt low level jet overhead thanks to the explosive deepening of the low. Bufkit soundings indicate a well mixed boundary layer, up to 850 mb on the southeast coast Saturday and Saturday night. The strongest winds will be over Cape Cod and the islands. Coastal flooding is the final threat we`re concerned about. This would be during both high tide cycles on Saturday, but moreso in the evening. Though the astronomical tide is higher in the morning, winds and seas won`t fully ramp up until later. Thus, we continue to expect a 1-2 ft surge leading to minor coastal flooding on the east coast Saturday morning. For the evening high tide that surge will be more like 3+ ft. Factoring in the 20-25 ft seas just offshore, widespread minor coastal flooding is likely with pockets of moderate. Again, timing will be crucial for us to realize this upper end of flooding potential, if the max surge can coincide with the high tide.

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I get it, but we have to remember these are just tools. There have been big individual misses or caves by the other models and even the ensembles—I’ve seen this particularly in tropical genesis/track/intensity forecasting. Obviously different than mid latitude cyclone forecasting, but this is why it’s important to not get too high or low on the specific runs and understand each model’s relative strengths/biases.

I totally understand everything you're saying and this stuff isn't easy by any means.  It just seems silly to me that US models aren't as good at some types of US weather than other agency's forecast systems.  We should strive to do better for our own backyards, especially when its a pretty densely populated area, and their own mission is "provide weather, water and climate data, forecasts, warnings, and impact-based decision support services for the protection of life and property and enhancement of the national economy."

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I can't get over the shift the CMC and UKMET made from 12z. Just a totally different look. Garbage to MECS without blinking an eye. These shifts are pretty wild.

In a way, I have to give the GFS credit for hanging tough even if it's wrong. These other models are just crazy.

The GFS has two extra runs per day to make it look like it's "hanging tough".  If you compare 0z to 12z it looks just as crazy.  QPF went from 1.1" to .10" at my location.  That's garbage.

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I’ve bitched about this before but situation like this really underscores my complaint… Why did they discontinue the model diagnostic division- … now would be a good time to see if there were data ingest/ initialization issues. 

 

In all seriousness, if the GFS ends up being out to lunch on this one, someone at NCEP/WPC needs to take a look at why and get this solved.  While US East Coast cyclones might not be the focus of the CMC, Euro, UK because of their own missions and priorities, the US models should have this as one of their strengths, not weaknesses.  1/3 of the US population lives on the East Coast.  It should be a priority to get the accuracy up on these scenarios.  The GFS and NAM going back and forth is embarrassing inside the 5 day window.

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

might be  from a death band to the west?

One nice thing about that screw hole showing up now - it means it will probably end up somewhere else.  I've noticed over they years that most of the RI screw holes aren't forecasted on the models, they usually show up unexpectedly on radar when some good banding is going on elsewhere.

Just now, PhineasC said:

The what? Keep that weird model shit outta here, bro.

It's not that weird - the French worked with the ECMWF on a fork of the Euro for their needs.  Based on similar code.

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Kev would love that...hours of useless snow

He also jackpots on the CMC Kuchera clown map... 29" lol...

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

We're breakin' out all the weird ones tonight..we're the IBM and RPM

I don't think we're in the RPM range yet... lol...

1 minute ago, cleetussnow said:

Best comment.  One of these models is profoundly wrong.  I would be surprised if its the Euro, but the GFS has been relatively steadfast.  

It's been posted a few times that GFS is having a tough couple of weeks vs the Euro even on mundane 500mb verification in the northern hemisphere domain. GFS has been consistent - we've also seen it cave to the consensus many times on the coastals at the last minute.