bristolri_wx

Didn’t realize the GFS had started doing open mic night at the Comedy Connection. Looks like a hilarious show!

@Torch Tiger all set check your personal messages.

@mreaves all set - check your personal messages.

@WxWatcher007 all set - check your personal messages.

Some of theory has merit. It’s however just one factor among many. For those that like snow I personally still feel confident that for most of New England that this season will be better than the last few. Doesn’t mean it will be much better. The long range models continue to have a favorable pattern at 500mb look overall for the winter months. We just need some luck, which has also been lacking last new winters.

Beautiful here right now - sunny and 61.

If you move up to 850mb the CanSIPS and CFS aren't that different considering what you would expect from a long range forecast. Canada looks cold from December through March, and 500mb heights in Western NA are above normal, which is about the best you can hope for these days.

@RyRyB is all set.

Absolutely, I'll give you two forms to use.

I have an older, unhealthier maple right next to my yard that's already bare, and an older maple that's lost about half it's leaves. Same for the cherry tree in my front yard. Probably about 50% of the trees here are bare, with the other half split between various ranges of color turning and leaf loss. If you go towards the northern and western parts of RI it's more bare. Down here by the coast is where trees are still hanging on...

Yeah. I have a maple and a poplar in my yard that just started to turn this week. Obviously not the majority of trees but more than you would think in this neck of the woods.

45 - 55 could still cause problems in RI and SE MA. Had to do a lot of driving today, and 2/3 of the trees still have leaves. Some are just starting to turn color. Could result in more tree damage than in other parts of the region where the leaves are long gone.

12z HRRR looks windier than the 0z but nothing over 50 forecasted... NAM 3k maxing out at 45...

Well that was pretty crazy for about 20 minutes. Had some sort of pingers mixed in at the beginning.

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Pretty dire NHC discussion...

Of course it does. 1128hr has a cutter into Toronto with 3" of rain and temps in the 50's.

Lots of rain but not much wind. As usual wind gust model forecasts overdone.

How about them Pats. Amazing what competent coaching and some decent drafting and signing can do. Plus a weak strength of schedule . Not convinced they are "very good", but at least they are playoff worthy in a weak AFC.

@Ginx snewx and @tamarack have been setup with their submission forms.

@tunafish and @rimetree have been setup with their submission forms!

Only a 3000 mile difference between 12z and 18z. Consistent!

See my updated first post above for additional details. I'm ready to start getting people on-boarded into the system.

Thanks for the feedback. Everyone's per storm entries should also be viewable on the spreadsheet. May not be apparent until more people are added. You can switch at the bottom of the spreadsheet to the person you want to check out.

I read the forecast and it doesn’t make much sense to me. December might be the warmest and driest month of the three in terms of anomalies and averages. JFM looks good at this point but of course at this range could turn to shit as we get closer. The below normal precip later in the winter could signal more snow than rain rather than less chances for precip overall. Even with the pattern looking favorable it’s hard to predict more than an average winter in terms of cold and snow which compared to the last few would still feel more wintry than previous seasons.