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bristolri_wx

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Everything posted by bristolri_wx

  1. bristolri_wx
    It's insanity here. Greatful I still have power at the moment. 3K seems to have been with projecting heavy band locations - agreed.
  2. bristolri_wx
    I don't have a level of expertise to explain it. Not sure it can initialize wrong for 8 hours straight. Maybe just a level of physics that's outside of the models understanding is occurring causing everything to be deflected southeast. It's something I would expect more from a global that a high resolution meso model.
  3. bristolri_wx
    G19_sector_ne_EXTENT3_72fr_20260223-0656.mp4
  4. bristolri_wx
    Not sure what the hell is wrong with the HRRR, but it's been wrong since 10PM last night with the placement of the heaviest bands. Total failure in terms of short term prediction of wtf is going on outside. In this case 40-50 miles is making a huge difference.
  5. bristolri_wx
    Don’t think I’ve seen radar like this over my house/area in any recent storm.
  6. bristolri_wx
    It’s crazy out here right now.
  7. bristolri_wx
    CODNEXLAB-NEXRAD-OKX-DSP-20260223-0811-96-100.mp4
  8. bristolri_wx
    CODNEXLAB-NEXRAD-BOX-DSP-20260223-0809-96-100.mp4
  9. bristolri_wx
    3K mostly agrees...
  10. bristolri_wx
    Damn straight. I have like 10 tabs open. BOX, OKZ, Regional Mosaic, Sub-Regional Mosaic, and the SPC Hourly Mesoscale Analysis map of 850 - 700 frontogenesis. But still looking at models too, with 15 hours to go on this storm.
  11. bristolri_wx
    That being said - the NBM showed 30" right before go time. If that doesn't come close to fruition, NOAA/NWS really needs to take a look at what inputs it's using for snowfall. It's supposed to be one of the primary tools they use for issuing forecasts, from what I've read.
  12. bristolri_wx
    Yeah I realized this after I posted. Need the 7z version, which ain't out yet.
  13. bristolri_wx
    Not sure where this data is coming from, but the 1AM NBM continues to say game on.
  14. bristolri_wx
  15. bristolri_wx
    I would caution anyone to follow the HRRR guidance verbatim at the moment. For the last four hourly runs, it's had issues with it's simulated radar returns, and I think that affects the other output. It's consistently keeping banding farther south than it actually is. It fixes it each run at hour 1 on each run, then regresses at hour 2 forward. Again, can't deny that there might be some cutbacks, or a more ENE movement, but the HRRR is having some difficulty handling this storm so far.
  16. bristolri_wx
  17. bristolri_wx
    4" here. Constant roar of wind now.
  18. bristolri_wx
    My f**k**g lord we are two hours into this storm and both threads have become almost intolerable. Maybe it isn't as prolific as expected because it goes a little more ENE than NE, but radar returns are already verifying better than the models themselves in the short term. Nowcast and enjoy. G19_sector_ne_EXTENT3_48fr_20260222-2154.mp4
  19. bristolri_wx
    The drop in QPF in the meso models may end up being right but if you match up the composite radar on the HRRR and what's actually happening, actual radar looks much better. Not sure if that's just how the simulated composite radar always looks compared to the real conditions or not. The heaviest radar returns seem to hit an unusual "brick wall "coming off the ocean into the south coast and get knocked down. Seems unrealistic...
  20. bristolri_wx
    Gotta remember that the HRRR is a good short range model. The extended runs have a greater margin of error in general than other models 48 hours out. If they scored better in the extended range, then the NAM's would have been shut down a while back. Doesn't mean the HRRR is wrong, but take it with a grain of salt.
  21. bristolri_wx
    Light flurries, 35. Wind has picked up noticeably in last hour.
  22. bristolri_wx
    We like our emergencies civil here in RI.
  23. bristolri_wx
    Things got real here got a real emergency alert EAS tones and all on my phone for the Blizzard Warning. Don’t get these often.
  24. bristolri_wx
  25. bristolri_wx
    I find that they are usually a little overdone on the snowfall output. Trim the PMM numbers by 10-15% and usually have sensible weather.
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