bristolri_wx

"...But what I have also found is a connection in the stratosphere. The image below shows a warmer winter stratosphere and a weaker/disrupted Polar Vortex, following a slow hurricane season. This does not imply that hurricane season directly impacts the Polar Vortex, but there is likely a common El Niño factor at play that also includes the Pacific impacts and atmospheric waves. With this in mind, I loaded and plotted the latest forecast data for the stratosphere. Below you can see the Polar Vortex wind forecast, which is how we estimate its strength. In this latest seasonal data, we can clearly see an interesting deceleration and a potential disruption trend starting in early January..."

Interesting read/analysis: https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/super-el-nino-builds-atmospheric-hurricane-shield-winter-2026-2027-connections-united-states-canada-fa/

I would be hesitant to say that no one North of Philly is getting above normal snow. It only takes three-four large storms to get to climo totals in the coastal plain. The season could still avg +8 temps but 10 days of true winter spread across 3 months can get you above average. Not saying that will happen… just that it can if we are talking in absolutes. And it would still “feel like a ratter” if it’s rainy and 45 most of the winter outside of those 3-4 storms.

Radar estimated 3” here. Seems in the ballpark. A number of roads had sections flooded out in the East Bay Area when I was out earlier.

Deluge continues here. Video doesn’t necessarily do it justice.

Torrential here. Already about 1” of rain.

It was close to normal here, but it didn't seem like it. Never a good sign when your high total for the year for all of SNE is 51" in Gloucester, RI.

I feel like a DJF mean is going to be deceiving this Winter. There’s going to be a lot of fluctuation from November straight through to March even though the overall trend is warm and wet. My expectations are low enough where anything will be a pleasant surprise. Regardless of temps and snowfall there’s a high probability of it being an interesting winter season for weather to follow. I don’t see a repeat 2015-2016 happening which was just total boring shit weather almost bell to bell.

Any analogs show up with strong El Nino’s with extraordinarily low Atlantic ACE’s the preceding tropical season?

https://dem.ri.gov/agriculture/caps-program-pests-spotted-lanternfly

Torrential on the way from Bristol to Providence over the last 45 minutes. Portions of 114 Wampanoag Trail flooded.

I don't think this winter will be nearly as bad as people are expecting. December and January are likely to be warm and wet. How much of that ends up as snow will just be some luck on low pressure tracks/placements. I wouldn't put a lot of hope into a White Christmas for Southern New England. However, February and March are looking cooler on the long range forecasts, while still showing above normal precipitation. Could be a back-loaded winter. Locking in a below normal snowfall winter would be quite pre-mature at this point while the El Nino is still developing, and other factors may come into play.

Looks like a repeat of July. HHH the first week of August. After that much closer to normal or below...

That's not the look you want to see on the CFS if you like warm and dewey. One person in farting in North Dakota is enough to trigger the CFS to show above normal temps...

This one isn't over yet... still another 24 hours of rotating moisture to deal with...

Seems like a general forecast of 1-2" west of 495 would be a good one, with 2-4+" plus in western CT, western/central MA, and southern VT. If you kind of look at the operational models they are all sniffing out something similar but just varying in terms of the exact locations, which you really don't know until the radar fills in.

Still heavy rain here. Lots-o-street flooding. Looks like it's semi-regenerated in this area a little as that main cluster of heavy rain moved through and swung northeast.

Holy downpours here in Providence!

thunder and downpours here for two hours now... these things are moving fast though.

Wasn’t expecting severe here but we have been getting downpours here on and off for the last two hours as these little clusters of heavy showers move east.

Round two starting to pop-pop-popcorn…

Gotta love how that intial heavy cluster of storms will not cross Long Island Sound into CT. Seems like you could be at the beach where it's dry and go swimming and it would pour on you.

Smoke... pivotal-weather-hrrr-smoke_viden-us_ne.mp4 pivotal-weather-hrrr-smoke_sfc-us_ne.mp4

If this storm teaches anyone anything it’s you shouldn’t say a forecast has busted until the storm is actually done. Models were all over the place on QPF, and yes they also had some outrageous amounts that may have not ended up occurring, but it was always showing a 2.5 day event, and different phases or chapters. Areas of rain have been pulsing, regenerating, and dying out for the entire duration of this storm. It also shows how much room for improvement there needs to be for modeling to nail down with better accuracy for these types of weather events. But the common sense forecast didn’t waiver much. There will be some larger numbers reported once things wind down, and the widespread 1-2” with 3-5” isolated spots will not be too far off what was being forecasted in the mid-range.

Seems like another 1-2” of rain over next 24 hours looks to be reasonable for many south of the pike as the storm moves north and the east over the coastal waters. Every model has a different depiction of how it exactly turns up. HREF are juicy but should be taken with a grain of salt, but shows why no one is steining this storm at 5PM on Monday even though precip shield is scattered/ragged on radar at the moment. Someone is going to get a lot of rain though wherever that boundary settles in.