bristolri_wx

The speed of this storm seems to be slowing down... the NAM still has it snowing an accumulating in RI and SE MA on late Sunday afternoon.

Latest BOX map...

WWA expanded a little. The box probability maps indicate theres a higher ceiling than floor on this one in relation to the current predicted amounts...

If someone decides to set it up like I did, sure!

Did the person who does snowfall map ranges at BOX get shit-canned during the shut down? The ranges are noticably odd this year. Never saw 0" for the low range in the past with any number other than 1" as the top end of that range. Usually it was shown as < 1".Still appreciate the maps are published but it just makes my brain hurt to see things like 1-6"...

Hey whattya know I may be able to add something to my own snowfall map. Finally something to be interested in here...

GFS ensembles also don't support what the op is selling in the long range. There is consensus across the board of some relaxing of this colder pattern for at least a few days coming up. How much TBD...

2015-2016 is not a winter anyone wants to show up on comparisons/analogs. Blech!

It would be interesting for someone to do a case study on the accuracy of model forecasts for these shortwaves that originate in areas with lower amounts of sample data. My totally half-assed ignorant theory is that as the model resolution has increased over the last few years, paired with the faster flow we've had, it causes more run-to-run inconsistencies on the operational models for these types of storms. If the flow was a little slower, there would be time of the physics to catch up to the shortwaves as they develop and provide a more consistent forecast. We often do not get consensus on the info we need to determine snowfall amounts until a day or two before because many of the storms that have been happening over the last few years have been fast movers. Not a lot of systems stalling and/or phasing, and when they do, they are usually modeled better. The older lower resolution models may have been less sensitive to this problem, though may have not generated a more accurate forecasts, just one that was more consistently wrong until go time. And as usual, we are often talking about differences in tracks of 50 or 100 miles to determine snow amounts, which is more difficult to pin down compared to just plain rain during other parts of the year.

My lord, Zoloft should buy a sponsorship on this thread. Hopefully one of those shortwave hits. Patience…

So I made some adjustments to the web site where it's easier to quickly view totals: https://newenglandsnowfallrecords.blogspot.com/ I removed the individual reports and made the individual pages on the Google Sheet visible for viewing. Also, I made changes to the custom Google Map so that the current total shows up as the label for each reporting location. I know that there will be situations where we get a "trace" of snow in the future. For record keeping purposes, if you want to enter trace amounts when they fall, enter them as 0.01. Throwing text into the form and the spreadsheet will break the math formulas doing the totals.

“Your local forecast from the National Weather Service.”

@40/70 Benchmark, @tavwtby check your PM for form links.

Most of December looks decent unless we get a big cutter...

Snowfall totals are submitted using the entry form. No one has access to edit the spreadsheet directly. Keeps the spreadsheet in pristine condition by making it read only (I have some experience with this). If something needs to be fixed because it was entered incorrectly, you can PM me and I can adjust it, though it will be when I have free time to take care of it. I went back through all my PM's and other than one new one from today, I have replied back with everyone's snowfall submission form links.

Might be a little too new to do that just yet. The documentation for using their API's needs to get added into the training so they can understand when queried. A fully trained programmer familiar with Google Cloud could probably figure it out. That is not I.

Would love to figure out how to run the latest Google weather models but above my level in programming, and there's costs involved. These are supposedly the most advanced AI based weather models available.

@moneypitmike and @Dan check your PM for links.

Climo is still really against us in coastal plain first two weeks of December.

Outbursts are so common on a snow storm thread it's hard to see the sarcasm through the snow...

Not going great, but a little early to give up on it. I would at least wait until Monday morning. Unless you are referring to something else...