DTWXRISK

Kind of intended to be... but I have been in central VA for 25 year if I was THAT bothered by missed snow chances etc I would of moved a long time ago

gfs and euro in a huge Model fight 12z GFS at 60 hrs has the LOW in sw NC near just north of CLT... at 66 hrs 12z SAT the 18z GFS has the Low west of Danville VA.. 12z wed OP ECMWF at 72 hrs -- 12x SAT has the LOW 100 miles EAST of SBY WOW

dude...its just weather... calm down

bill very reasonable... my POINT is not the THE BLOB means XYZ... my point is hat I have seen it with a La nina ever before. maybe it means nothing. but I dont know that

the 12z EPS has NO 50/50 so as the 2 short waves begin to phase over Plains day 9-10 it results in larger southeast RIDGE which would mean hello Midwest Ohio valley winter storm. So the KEY is the 50/50 Low...IMO. If that feature is " real" I will bark ..IF...

Warm North Pacific does not mean +PDO. i did NT say it did. In no way did I say that

BING ****ING GO

The Friday night Saturday system seems to be ideal for a heavy rain going over to snow event especially on the 12z WED EURO solution. Even if we assume that the European solution here is correct -- it may not be -- and the actual track of the LOW is further to the East and it is going to move off the coast earlier than what the previous runs of the Euro were showing . the problem is the lack of low-level cold air. At 9z SAT the 12z EURO has the LOW in Hampton Roads -- I have drawn in the 0c 850mb isotherm in Orange and the 32 degree temperature line at the surface in purple. NOW if this was the middle of winter this heavy rain would be changing over to snow in the entire Shenandoah Valley as well as the mountains of Western North Carolina Southwest Virginia and pretty close to the Washington DC area certainly northwest Virginia as well as interior Southeastern Pennsylvania. Indeed looking at the 72 hrs euro valid 12z SAT it is clear that the 0c 850mb isotherm has been pulled into the coast as the Nor'easter is developing off the Delmarva. And again if this was the middle of winter… the rain could possibly change the snow as far south as Richmond and east of Washington D.C Baltimore and Philadelphia. ( if my Grandmother had balls she would be my Grandfather….) But as the image on the right shows the low-level temperatures are simply too warm to support any snow except for perhaps the Shenandoah Valley./ western MD south central PA. But even there temperatures of 35 and 37 degrees are not going to allow for any kind of accumulation even if it does end as snow. The 500mb pattern seems to be ideal Friday night going into Saturday morning. The two short waves clearly phase in the pre-dawn hours of Saturday which allows the southeast LOW to undergo significant intensification and bomb out as the shortwave goes negative off the Middle Atlantic Coast on Saturday morning The operational European goes kablooie with the system and as a monster raging Nor'easter Saturday afternoon evening. This is clearly an elevation snow which was what the precipitation type surface maps are clearly depicting. Even if you look at the surface temperatures for late Saturday afternoon Boston is still in the mid 30s es as is all of Southeastern Massachusetts Rhode Island and most of coastal and interior CT. The snowfall accumulation map from the operational European on both weathermodelS and weatherbell are simply BULLSHIT It is clear that they continue to measure mixed precipitation --which is what much of the precipitation in central or western Massachusetts will be ---as all snow. Moreover if you compare the more accurate and far more reasonable snowfall maps from eurowx.com you can see that their snow algorithm is far more reasonable and makes accurate and makes sense given the Upper air pattern and the model surface development of this Coastal storm. The differences in the snowfall amounts in Central and Western Massachusetts is astronomical. in summary this event for Friday night into Saturday is a classic East Coast Nor'easter and supports adage that early December is very difficult to get a major pure East Coast snow storm because of the still relatively mild sea surface water temperatures. Not impossible just difficult The choice is up to you. I'm sure some of you rather have the ridiculous over-amped over done snowfall maps from the European or the GFS. It seems that the operational European so far this cold season is way over doing the snowfall amounts as we saw with the Ohio Valley storm last week and now this one. This event is only 72 hours away so usually the European model Gets a Clue at this point rather than going bonkers with the snowfall totals.. Of course if the European model is acting funny this cold season and is over doing the snowfall amounts and this is going to be a forecast problem. The only way in my opinion to get around this is to check these ridiculous snowfall amounts from these other websites with the snowfall maps from EURO WX.COM …. which seems to be far superior to anything on whether Bell or weather models.

The Friday night Saturday system seems to be ideal for a heavy rain going over to snow event especially on the 12z WED EURO solution. Even if we assume that the European solution here is correct -- it may not be -- and the actual track of the LOW is further to the East and it is going to move off the coast earlier than what the previous runs of the Euro were showing . the problem is the lack of low-level cold air. At 9z SAT the 12z EURO has the LOW in Hampton Roads -- I have drawn in the 0c 850mb isotherm in Orange and the 32 degree temperature line at the surface in purple. NOW if this was the middle of winter this heavy rain would be changing over to snow in the entire Shenandoah Valley as well as the mountains of Western North Carolina Southwest Virginia and pretty close to the Washington DC area certainly northwest Virginia as well as interior Southeastern Pennsylvania. Indeed looking at the 72 hrs euro valid 12z SAT it is clear that the 0c 850mb isotherm has been pulled into the coast as the Nor'easter is developing off the Delmarva. And again if this was the middle of winter… the rain could possibly change the snow as far south as Richmond and east of Washington D.C Baltimore and Philadelphia. ( if my Grandmother had balls she would be my Grandfather….) But as the image on the right shows the low-level temperatures are simply too warm to support any snow except for perhaps the Shenandoah Valley./ western MD south central PA. But even there temperatures of 35 and 37 degrees are not going to allow for any kind of accumulation even if it does end as snow. The 500mb pattern seems to be ideal Friday night going into Saturday morning. The two short waves clearly phase in the pre-dawn hours of Saturday which allows the southeast LOW to undergo significant intensification and bomb out as the shortwave goes negative off the Middle Atlantic Coast on Saturday morning The operational European goes kablooie with the system and as a monster raging Nor'easter Saturday afternoon evening. This is clearly an elevation snow which was what the precipitation type surface maps are clearly depicting. Even if you look at the surface temperatures for late Saturday afternoon Boston is still in the mid 30s es as is all of Southeastern Massachusetts Rhode Island and most of coastal and interior CT. The snowfall accumulation map from the operational European on both weathermodelS and weatherbell are simply BULLSHIT It is clear that they continue to measure mixed precipitation --which is what much of the precipitation in central or western Massachusetts will be ---as all snow. Moreover if you compare the more accurate and far more reasonable snowfall maps from eurowx.com you can see that their snow algorithm is far more reasonable and makes accurate and makes sense given the Upper air pattern and the model surface development of this Coastal storm. The differences in the snowfall amounts in Central and Western Massachusetts is astronomical. in summary this event for Friday night into Saturday is a classic East Coast Nor'easter and supports adage that early December is very difficult to get a major pure East Coast snow storm because of the still relatively mild sea surface water temperatures. Not impossible just difficult The choice is up to you. I'm sure some of you rather have the ridiculous over-amped over done snowfall maps from the European or the GFS. It seems that the operational European so far this cold season is way over doing the snowfall amounts as we saw with the Ohio Valley storm last week and now this one. This event is only 72 hours away so usually the European model Gets a Clue at this point rather than going bonkers with the snowfall totals.. Of course if the European model is acting funny this cold season and is over doing the snowfall amounts and this is going to be a forecast problem. The only way in my opinion to get around this is to check these ridiculous snowfall amounts from these other websites with the snowfall maps from EURO WX.COM …. which seems to be far superior to anything on whether Bell or weather models.

this event is classic event / noreaster that proves the old adage about the difficulty of seeing a SECS in early DEC

ON DECEMBER 2? LOL some things never change

chase what? COASTAL Lows? wow...

A couple of points which I think need to be mentioned because I think you are overlooking them. Using statistics to show that something is likely to happen is all well and good until the unusual thing that is not supposed to happen does happen. 1000 days in a row the farmer comes out every morning and afternoon and feeds the Turkey. The Turkey becomes convinced that it is special and chosen and that since it has always been that way it will continue . Then one day in the month of October when the farmer comes to feed the turkey…. well we all know what happens. You seem to have discounted the idea that the moderate La Nina is going to break down in the second half of the winter despite the overwhelming amount of data and model simulations that show that is going to happen. Of course you may be discounting that or you may decide that the models are overdoing the decay of the moderate la Nina and it won't happen until spring. That was perfectly reasonable and possible. But I think it is a risk assumption to assume that the moderate La Nina is going to continue at current intensity for the entire winter. The speculation or assumption that the PDO is going to be negative and that the EPO is going to be generally positive is also in my opinion a risky assumption given the return of the enormous blob of warm SSTAs that have developed in the northeastern Pacific. The last time we had “ the blob’ feature we were not in any kind of Enso event -- not a weak moderate or strong La Nina and or El Nino.

OUTSTANDING POST ANALYSIS.... WOW I like the north pacific Riidge +QBO map sicne 1990 a LOT

I haven't been through the entire thread in this group or in the general forums but I am increasingly bothered by the amount of groupthink regarding the winter. it seems the data is overwhelming that the La Nina whether it's moderate or strong … only reaches that intensity for short interval of time - DEC - and that the La Nina is going to significantly weaken in the second half of the winter. Again I do not know if others have mentioned this but seems to me that this is being overlooked buy a lot of folks and I think this is a huge mistake The second issue has to do with the amount of incredibly warm water that is piled up in the Eastern Pacific along the immediate west coast of Canada and the Gulf of Alaska. I have looked on the SST maps on weatherbell and weathermodels sites along with other sources and so far I have yet to see a La Nina with that much warm water piled up with that sort of intensity along the west coast of North America. Maybe somebody else has found something that matches it but so far I haven't seen anything. So I am concerned that these the two things are being overlooked by a lot of people.

YOU do realize that the idea that the La Nina is going to stay Moderate to strong all winter long is total crap right ? that None of the enso data / models supports that idea ?

ah

There are several powerful short waves in the the southern jet stream. The 0z Saturday European takes the shortwave at 120 hours over Texas and Oklahoma and develops into a major snowstorm for NC VA MD DEL and slides the Low off the coast clipping Cape Cod . The 0z GFS sees that shortwave over Texas and Oklahoma at 120 hours BUT it crushes into a weak flat system in the Gulf at 144 the surface Low does not develop into anything significant. Instead the 0z GFS has a moderate amount of snow and ice from Tennessee Valley and portions of NC VA followed by a weak LOW that slides off the coast. Instead the GFS focuses on an next shortwave coming out of the SW states and develops that one is the major East Coast snowstorm at 234 hours I have no idea which solution is correct but I will say that given the fact that we are dealing with a strong enhance STJ and the fact that the GFS loves to crush the short waves in the southern jet stream during Arctic outbreaks that the GFS solution for January 15-16 - ( the weak wave of Low pressure) is probably bogus and the European solution is more likely to be correct And there may be a second a significant system after January 20

no hype with snowmagedon?

UM no...

ANOTHER JB BUST