DTWXRISK

wow talk about a TOTAL mis read.... Good luck with that this issue is will the moderate DEC La Nina have the same impact in JAN FEB MAR as it under goes RAPID weakening? clearly the answer is no

IN MAJOR DEVELOPMENT the ecmwf enso model shwos DRAMATIC WEAKENING of the Moderate La Nina. It is hard to understate how BIG this is...or COULD be... a rapidly weakening La Nina... in essence a WEAK La nina combined with SSW EVENT t

all runs are colder for ric LYH central VA especially Dew points after 11am

Idiot comment

JUST IN CASE YOU DID NOT NOTICE... since the time I left ... Oct /Nov 2016 we have NOT have BIG widespread northeast US snowstorms--- ya know like RDU/ GSO to BOS snowstorm big KU event we have been close a few times DEC 8-10 2017 Jan 3-5 2018 March 6-8 2018 DEC 12-13 2019

JUST IN CASE YOU DID NOT NOTICE... since the time I left ... Oct /Nov 2016 we have NOT have BIG widespread northeast US snowstorms--- ya know like RDU/ GSO to BOS snowstorm big KU event we have been close a few times DEC 8-10 2017 Jan 3-5 2018 March 6-8 2018 DEC 12-13 2019

before it turns mild ... there is this ' threat"

12Z eps IS wetter and a longer duration event

well technically it was NOT name calling it was DESCRIBING ( joke)

yeah but not as funny .... that which does not kill me makes me funnier

thats because the EPS is vastly different and none of the Teleconnection support this

i changed it ....

AND W E GOT OUR SELVES A MID ATLANTIC SNOWSWTORM

BLIZZARD? this time of year ssta are too warm ... but if one area could get fookign slammed from a bombing out SE LOW ...its eastern NC

as we get closer to the event this dec 7 thing is getting bigger or more significant that is always a GOOD trend ... this threat is one of the threats I talked about on the NOV 29 newsletter

dont forget as a general GFS runs often dont handle STJ well

I don't want to make too much of this situation for Monday in this area and I'm not prepared to say that I am barking at this point but the Monday event does have the potential to be a bit of a surprise This image shows two 500 mb maps. The map on the left is the 12z Thursday European model valid at 36 hours or Friday night. The map on the right the upper air map from the same 12z Thursday operational European model VALID evening of DEC 7. IMO what is particularly striking about it is that if you compare the two will notice that the upper air patterns are s almost identical. But of course there are some key differences. Notice that on the Friday night we have no closed 500 low -- known as the 50/ 50 LOW in southeast Canada but we will have one according to the European model Monday night. Also note that on Friday night we have two short waves -one in the Northern Jet Stream over Michigan and the southern one in Tennessee and Georgia which is about to go negative. And that of course is going to trigger the coastal LOW and its rapid intensification. On Monday night DEC 7 we have a southern stream s/w which is further to the south which is still tilted slightly positive. The northern shortwave is closed off and this is located in Virginia and Pennsylvania. The end result is that because we have the closed 500 low in southeast Canada these two short waves are going to phase further to the South and east ….which means that the coastal LOW is going to form further to the South and probably off the coast. This is a timing problem. If the southern s/w were to come in more neutral or negatively tilted over Georgia then you would end up with a much stronger Coastal LOW and the potential for a surprise snowstorm in portions of Virginia and Maryland on Monday December 7. These two images show only light snow Monday morning in much of Virginia and temperatures are clearly cold enough. The 18z Euro is somewhat more aggressive with this burst of snow and this is supported by the 18z EPS. I think we will have to wait until after the Saturday system is gone before we will have a really good idea about what if anything is going to happen in the lower Middle Atlantic states on December 7th. Right now I think there is pretty good chance for light snow event lasting most of the morning / midday for a good portion of the Dominion and perhaps portions of Southern Maryland and Delaware. Maybe it will ll just be snow showers. Maybe it will end up being something a little more

simon lee ...good met

this event is classic event / noreaster that proves the old adage about the difficulty of seeing a SECS in early DEC

ON DECEMBER 2? LOL some things never change