FallsLake

The pattern we're going into for the next two weeks is not good for east coast storms. The air is more Pacific sourced and the storm track will tend to stay to out NW (lake cutters). The one good thing is we really don't torch. After each storm passes (to the NW) as a cold front we cool down to at least normal before the next warm up and frontal passage. You would think we'll get one to two more favorable periods before winter ends. So yeah, bring on Fab February!

So we all agree that we're moving into a warm period. But even during warm periods, in the middle of winter, we can get a quick hitting event if the stars are aligned. Below is the day 10 CMC. It would just take a little more push or strength from the high to turn this into a small ice event. **again not saying this 10 day event will occur but we can't go to sleep during these next two weeks.

We had this in Feb 96 (not a big storm but still nice): Then in Feb 2013 we had this (also a couple if ice events, and some storms into March):

Yep, officially 6.1". They had 1.2 before this storm and now the from Dec 1st total is 7.3. Below are totals for the last two days: WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL .................................................................. <THIS IS FOR YESTERDAY> SNOWFALL (IN) YESTERDAY 0.2 3.0 2000 0.1 0.1 0.0 MONTH TO DATE 7.0 1.6 5.4 0.5 SINCE DEC 1 7.3 2.2 5.1 0.5 SINCE JUL 1 7.3 2.3 5.0 0.5 SNOW DEPTH 6 <And here is Wednesday> SNOWFALL (IN) YESTERDAY 5.9 R 4.0 1946 0.1 5.8 0.0 MONTH TO DATE 6.8 1.5 5.3 0.5 SINCE DEC 1 7.1 2.1 5.0 0.5 SINCE JUL 1 7.1 2.2 4.9 0.5

I think their official snow amount will be 6.1". They received .2 after midnight yesterday: **for some reason I can't past right now.

This could work:

Indices look better today: AO - Looks to go strongly negative (good) PNA - Looks to drop negative but go back positive in the LR (OK) NAO - Looks to go neutral in the LR (great because I don't think it can go negative in the winter anymore) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml EPO - Going slightly positive (not good)

Interesting time on the boards today. Had a Burger and Brick sighting. WilkesboroDude has been posting. Need Pack back; and of course if Robert started posting again that would be something.

Where's pack?

Just for the fun of the discussion, RDU would go from low 30s to the upper teens during the event. I would suspect there would be some high ratios. **If this happened as depicted.

Here it is. As you said improved from last run that showed nothing:

The problem with this potential event is we're depending on a clipper and then last minute coastal development. I'm not sure any models will be able to give us a good idea of what eventually happens up to go time. There will most likely be flip flops for each model run. The ensembles may be the best tool to follow for this particular type of event.

I've seen Chatham County setup with the best radar returns many times in the past. Not just with snow but rain.

If (If IF IF) this event happens, our area could easily be the jackpot. These types of systems can benefit anybody in the Piedmont down to the coast.

Yeah, I have that link. It would be nice to have total precip values and not just rates. But beggars can't be choosy.

Just looking at the GFS, we never get into an extended warm period. We cycle between warm and cold. Of course there's app/lake cutters but the cold air stays to our NW. So if we can get the blocking, we'll be able to quickly go into a winter storm pattern.

Is that for the NAVGEM? If so, where are you seeing it?

I agree. But there have been similar setups (clipper --> coastal development) that have produced for NC in the past. It's hard to do (perfect timing, etc.), but possible.

RAH still mentioning the possibility. Stating only flurries right now; but that should be expected with the uncertainty and the type of system. A strong clipper low will meanwhile have migrated to the Great Lakes by Mon morning, where it will occlude through Tue. Subsequent secondary/coastal cyclogenesis is then expected along the middle Atlantic and New England coast through the middle of the week, as the parent upr trough amplifies across the Appalachians and middle Atlantic states. Any coastal cyclogenesis is likely to be initially slow/weak, owing to the presence of fast, strongly meridional flow downstream of the trough, at least until the trough lifts across about 40N, where the presence of a strong/blocking positive height anomaly over the N. Atlantic will provide room for flow amplification. Nonetheless, that same fast flow aloft, and embedded jet streaks/upper front will favor some jet-induced precipitation from mid level cloud bases over the middle Atlantic states late Tue-early Wed. Given large spread in guidance, and the probable presence of a relatively deep, dry sub-cloud layer, will maintain continuity with the previous dry forecast. However, portions of cntl NC may indeed see at least a few sprinkles or flurries with the passage of the upr trough and related reinforcing Arctic cold front during that time; and small PoP may be introduced in subsequent forecasts.

At least RAH mentioned the possibility: .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 235 PM Thursday... A rather quiet albeit cold stretch of weather expected during this period, with high pressure predominant at least through the first half of next week. In general, expect afternoon temperatures to top out in the 30s/40s, with the warmest day of the period being Saturday thanks to leftover moisture/cloud cover across the area from the departing area of low pressure. Overnight lows through the middle of next week will remain below freezing area wide, bottoming out in the teens/20s just prior to dawn each morning. Precipitation chances are not plentiful during this stretch, as the forecast area remains just west of the right exit quadrant of the upper level jet. A frontal boundary will move through Tuesday afternoon/evening attempting to carry some light precipitation east of the mountains, but confidence in this occurring is not high. For now, have left off PoPs siding with the drier frontal passage as seen in the GFS solution, but these may need to be increased if guidance trends more toward the ECMWF over the next few runs.

Maybe we can flurry ourselves to our yearly normal.

You, up to RDU, did better than me. I got 0.5" or so. Still with the way things went, I felt lucky to get that.

Models are spitting out a variety of precip totals for the next couple of days. We really need the rain. Hopefully some of the more higher totals come to fruition for all of us.

The indices are not in our favor. The one good thing to take away from the run is there continues to be cold air available in NA. Once we get some blocking set up (..Maybe 1st of February), we'll be able to tap/use that air for a potential winter storm.

I think we get one more slime chance and then we'll have to wait until February. Even JB is talking warm for the later part of the month; and when he talks warm he's usually right.