FallsLake

From RAH: Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Raleigh NC 500 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2017 NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-071000- Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange- Durham-Franklin-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake- 500 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Hazardous weather is no expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. light rain on Thursday through Friday night may mix with or change to some wet snow, especially across the northern Piedmont. Accumulations, if they occur, should be limited to a dusting or so, and generally confined to elevated and grassy locations. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. $$

By hour 69 it looks like a mix at RDU, but nothing significant to the west of the Triangle. Just a narrow strip of snow/rain from just east of Charlotte to RDU to Roanoke Rapids. **weaker storm

At hour 63 it is warmer at RDU. What was a rain/snow look on the 12z at the same time, it's just rain on the 18z.

Yep, a little warmer for 850s and surface at 57.

Here's the JMA:

Yep, it was the NAM.

As you said before, this is a tough forecast. We could easily just get a lot of cold rain, or somebody could cash out with heavy rates (..like SC November snow). really not sure what to think at this point.

Here's the types at hour 96:

I think it looks good for RDU. Mostly snow for the entire event.

I think it matters on how much initial cold air we can get in place before the storm. Right now it's not looking like much, but dew points will be in the teens right across the boarder into Virginia. If we can get some type of push of that air farther south this could become a good storm.

Just the messenger....

And CR's freezing rain:

Your right. Here's the 12z:

Here's a better map from Pivotal Weather:

CMC is definitely better for MBY. It has colder surface temps, with even some ice showing up over CRs location.

GFS at hour 78 is warmer. Just a little snow showing north of Greensboro into Virginia.

Even with the NAM look, it would be a slush fest. Still I would consider this a win: total accumulation for hour 84:

I think it would flip back to snow with the heaver rates. Dew points continue to show a colder look (...storm creating it's own cold):

No the NAM is looking juicy. Our region (as normal) is on the line. But the 84 hour NAM snow fall shows 2-4" across Wake (most for CR), with more to come. You would have to assume most of that would not stick; but still...

Nam is also ever so slight colder at the surface; especially on the onset.

Man your right; for me it's got a chance of rain or snow until 1am.

Here's the 6z NAM at hour 81 (temps at RDU look like 33/32):

The way things are shaping up; if anybody sees snow flakes falling from the sky, consider that a win. RAH is talking a little bit more about snow (than yesterday): It will be unsettled with a threat of light precipitation persisting for Thursday and Friday as disturbances aloft in the fast southwesterly flow provide sufficient forcing for precipitation. The greatest threat and precipitation amounts are still expected to the south and east of Raleigh across the Coastal Plain and Coastal region. There remains a fair amount of uncertainty in how far north and west the precipitation will extend and the overall amounts. NWP guidances has struggled with this for several days and this is a pattern which is often problematic. There is a reasonable chance that some of the precipitation Thursday morning and especially Thursday night and Friday morning could fall as some wet snow or a mix of rain and wet snow across the Piedmont. The amount of cold air will be the primary limiting factor which should keep things from getting out of hand. Warm boundary layer temperatures, relatively warm soil temperatures, light precipitation amounts, weak precipitation rates and questions regarding the ability of the moisture to extend into the ice nucleation region across the northwest flank of the precipitation axis where temperatures would be most favorable for wet snow suggest a marginal event with fairly high confidence that impacts will be limited. No accumulation is forecast at this point although a few GFS/EPS ensemble members which include unsophisticated assumptions indicate some minor accumulation is possible. After morning lows in the mid to upper 30s, highs on Thursday will range in the mid to upper 40s. Lows Thursday night will fall into the lower to mid 30s with highs on Friday only in the lower to mid 40s.

The pollen is horrible. Yesterday afternoon there was a green haze everywhere. Hopefully the rain that's moving through the Triangle (as I write) will wash this stuff away; at least temporarily.

I've got one Bing cherry tree but don't get much because I have no pollinator. Lots of blooms but very little develop.