FallsLake

Right now is the time to invest in peaches.

After the freezing temps early this month, most will not see temps below freezing the rest of February. Overall temps will be way above normal if not breaking all time February warmth. If the pattern turns cold for March, I dare say there is a chance that March could end of colder than February with actual temp average. That would be the same as September being warmer than August.

LR indices look about the same as yesterday. Everything is on our side except the PNA (strongly negative). I've always thought that was the most important (for the east). But if we get the AO, NAO, and EPO to all go negative; not sure if that can force the cold air into a SE trough. Or as others have said, a coast to coast trough...

Maybe the AO helps feed cold air into NA, NAO will help force the storm track south, EPO keep a trough in eastern NA, and maybe a negative PNA will allow storm system to enter the US from the west. at least that's my dream...

LOL....beat me to it. But the PNA is also negative......

Yep, nothing big happing. Small chance of something small in 5 days but even that is unlikely. But dealing with the LR, the indices are interesting today: PNA - Looks to stay negative (bad) AO - Looks to go strongly negative (good) NAO - Looks to go strongly negative (yes! I said strongly negative----great) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml EPO - Looks to stay negative (good) ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4indices.png So the question is, can the PNA screw everything up?

12z GFS at day 5. As discussed above, there is a possibility of some wintery precip, but again I would say this is still a long shot. Best case is somebody seeing some wintery precip fall from the sky; which is still a win with this pattern.

The orientation of the precipitation (SW to NE) would increase the chance of the cold air overtaking the precip before it left. Again I'll say low chance (..much better for high elevations) but definitely something else to look at.

The 6z is not a robust on precip. amounts but it could get a little interesting. A nice CAD does set up with dew points down to the lower 20s by 18z Tuesday. We just need more precip. It could happen in the form of heavy drizzle, but we would need it just heavy enough to drop the temp to below freezing. **I would say this is unlikely to happen, but hey what else do we have to look at.

Rain is the one good thing we're getting. Last month I was worried we would go into this spring in a major drought. We're looking much better now.

All the time........in July.

The 12z GFS, way out at the end of its run, would indicate a better pattern setup for maybe a winter storm to threaten. Of course the next run will have another solution but until then I can dream its on to something.

If it happens, it could be just in time. Move things forward about a week (last few days of February) and hopefully a storm is on our doorsteps. We can get significant winter storms up until the first week of March (..of course there's exceptions).

I didn't see your post until after I posted. But yeah, hopefully we see some model changes soon.

I'm a little confused about the source of the below indices chart: ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4indices.png It's slightly different than this site (which I think are both supposed to be GEFS, maybe different times): http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml This first would indicate that the NAO could go negative in the long range. I also like that the EPO will stay negative. You would think if the PNA is positive, AO is negative, NAO is negative, and EPO is negative; a good pattern would emerge in the coming model runs.

Looking at the latest LR models and it's pretty disappointing. Again just going out to day 10. The euro does have a better pattern setup than the GFS; there's more of southward push of cold air (..still not great) and some signs of more cold air afterwards. I'll be interested to see the 12z. **GFS past day 10 (which we all agree is garbage), would signal spring is here. 0z Euro 850 temps at day 10:

Look on the bright side, you'll save on the heat bill. But pray you wont need AC.

In my opinion, the winter has been ok to this point. I would give it a C (average). If we can get one more widespread SE storm it could become a good winter (B). I would actually love to see a Miller B storm with a classic CAD setup. This would produce a wide range of precip types. I wouldn't mind seeing a snow, to sleet, to freezing rain, and then back to snow type storm. But all I can do is dream about it right now...

So tying this back to weather, sun angle is now becoming a factor.....

I'm only looking out to 10 days on LR models. Everything past that is garbage. The indices this morning look ok but not as good as the past days. Just stating my opinion that we need to see movement towards a favorable pattern by day 10. Right now I'm not seeing it. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

Just looking at the GFS and euro out to day 10, and they don't show much hope. Indices don't look as good either. Not giving up hope, but we'll need the pattern to at least be in the process of switching to a favorable configuration by mid month to give us hope for a late season widespread storm threat. There have been significant winter storms through the month of March, but climo would indicate that most folks outside of mountain areas have until around March 5th. We need to start seeing hints at a pattern change very soon (maybe the strat warming...).

Maybe. It had the cold look (and even was close to a -NAO) and the models followed suit (cold look). But then they switched towards a warmer look (PNA and AO more neutral) and the models then went warm in the LR. So, maybe we again start seeing better model solutions. If the pattern actually does switch around mid month, it may change very quickly as long as we can keep cold temps locked to our NW.

Indices would indicate that the mid part of February onward could be favorable. If so, we should see the LR models start showing colder solutions. PNA - Goes solidly positive in LR (Good) AO - Goes solidly negative in LR (Good) EPO - stays negative but goes to slight negative in LR (OK) NAO http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

Man, we just need one more decent storm and I'll be ready for spring (..and those cool 59 degree days).

That would probably be a below normal day.