FallsLake

Don't normally post here because much of the discussion is out of my knowledge level. But I do know that each week we pass (with cold, cool, average, or even not blazing temps) towards early September minimum is crucial. So just looking at the 6z GFS, it doesn't look that bad for surface temps. 850 temps do show pushes of much above normal temps but surface temps are at or just above freezing (more reasonable). So I think the big question is cloud cover; but again the farther into August we can get the lower the sun angel and the less affect of clear skies. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=T2m&runtime=2018072906&fh=0

Summers been good. Just got back from vacation at the outer banks. Loved the weather, most days in the low 80s and plenty of sunshine. But, still can't wait for summer to end (..being the cold weather loving guy I am). Maybe in 5 months from now we'll be tracking a Christmas snow storm. Hope your summer is good as well.

Those totals are still possible, but as you stated it's from storms; in which there will be varying amounts of winners and losers. The NAM seems to show this better than the GFS. BUT the NAM cannot know exactly where these storms develop. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=seus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2018072312&fh=84 **then switch to GFS

From CPC: Discussion - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/fxus05.html Map - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=5

That would be wonderful for areas in a drought (..like me). Also this will limit the heat. We've reached our highest average temperatures for the year. A rainy period now will keep us below the averages. **we're now heading (slowly) downwards on average temps.

Sure hope the long range GFS is correct. It indicates that there will be a large percentage of the next two weeks at or below normal with temps. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2018071212&fh=6

Quoting my own post to make the point that models are bad all year long. Just a couple days back it was looking like we could see a triple digit threat the end of this upcoming week. Now the models have backed off to the point we may see below normal temps (..lots of 80s for highs).

Going to the outer banks the week after next. The weather lover in me says bring on the storms, but the rest/relaxation side says keep them away. Edit: Looking at the models it looks like storms (if they develop) should be pushed westward out-to-sea. But id we got some gulf development that could be directed toward us.

It seems like when we get something good this time of year, we end up having to pay for it: Temperatures will be much below normal on Saturday with low-level thickness values near 1390m near the VA border, H8 temps below 15C, and a fair amount of cloudiness. Highs will range in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Much more sunshine on Sunday will lead to a nice weather day in most locations with highs in the lower to mid 80s and dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Highs moderate into the upper 80s to lower 90s for Monday and Tuesday. The warming trend continues for Wednesday and Thursday. Opted to stay below WPC guidance which includes a high of 100 for Thursday and stick with highs in the lower to mid 90s for now. -Blaes

Lol...yep. But we could beat that "mad dog" back for a day or two. GFS for next Saturday ~mid day (& has some support from other models):

The Dog Days of summer: The dog days or dog days of summer are the hot, sultry days of summer. They were historically the period following the heliacal rising of the star Sirius, which Greek and Roman astrology connected with heat, drought, sudden thunderstorms, lethargy, fever, mad dogs, and bad luck. They are now taken to be the hottest, most uncomfortable part of summer in the Northern Hemisphere.

Anything under 90 is a win this time of year. I'm heading to the outer banks the middle of July. Hoping for some nice weather. Related to that, the GFS has been constantly showing below temps for the outer banks. (but)Other models don't show this detail. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=seus&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2018062812&fh=84 Move backwards and forwards in time to see the anomaly.

With the amount of rain I've received over the last month (~half inch), I absolutely believe the latest GFS:

I got to complain a little; we haven't had much rain in my area. Ground is really dry. Storms seem to stay south and west of the Raleigh area. Crazy how weather patterns get established. Last year we did great whereas others had a moderate drought. I guess it's our turn.

Happy Summer Solstice everybody! We hit that at 6:07 this morning. Days will slowly start to get shorter from this point forward; but the average temps will continue to climb for another month. **the "oven" temp continues to increase even though the dial is now being slowly turned down. ***you got to get to, and past, equilibrium.

Man it's a hot spring day. Just three more days and summer starts......

Yeah, it's going to get hot but nothing we're not used to. Summer Solstice is near and heat is a reality in the Southeast.

Enjoy our short lived CAD for today. It was interesting yesterday; it was warm/humid the first half but then with the frontal passage it turned cool(ish) in the afternoon. NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 400 AM Tuesday... Widespread low overcast and areas of drizzle have enveloped cntl NC this morning, related to a 1023 mb, cold air damming high along the nrn middle Atlantic coast. This ridge will continue to extend across the wrn and cntl Carolinas and VA through tonight. Meanwhile, a weak, 1014 mb area of low pressure centered about 50 miles east of CHS this morning will track newd along a coastal front that will drift into the ern Carolinas through this evening. Aloft, a nearly stationary 850 mb trough evident in regional VWP data has focused a band of elevated showers, amidst around 50-100 J/kg of MUCAPE, from near BUY to LHZ to RWI early this morning. This trough is forecast to weaken, with a probable dissipation of those showers, through 12Z. Otherwise, the flow in the mid-upr levels will remain weak and erratic, or light wly/nwly, downstream of a perturbation forecast to move sewd from OH to the srn middle Atlantic coast through this evening. The aforementioned low overcast will likely remain trapped beneath a 1500-2000 ft frontal inversion evident on the GSO and WAL 00Z/12th RAOBs, with no apparent erosion mechanism other than mixing along the periphery of the wedge that should allow the coastal front to retreat into sern NC this afternoon. Ascent along and across that boundary will provide the primary focus for measurable precipitation (showers/isolated storms) today, the wrn edge of which will likely hold east of I-95. Temperatures today will consequently remain much below average, with highs ranging from the upr 60s over the nrn Piedmont to mid to perhaps upr 70s on the sern fringe of the wedge/over the Sandhills and Coastal Plain. A small chance of a shower will remain east of I-95 tonight, in closest proximity to the coastal front and weak frontal wave forecast to track through ern NC. Otherwise, the lingering presence of the weak ridge of high pressure, and CAD, will cause the low overcast to thicken and lower, with lows mostly in the mid-upr 60s.

If anybody is wondering why the board is quiet, here's the current warnings:

The 12z GFS is back to the cooler look. Click future frames on the below link to see the modeled dew points: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=seus&pkg=Td2m&runtime=2018053012&fh=108

The long range models have been wavering on how much cool/dry air makes it down to our location. Some runs have shown dew points in the 40s for a couple days whereas others have it barely getting into the 50s for one day. It would be wonderful to get a few cool/dry days in June.

Rains good. I always worry this time of year about possible drought development. Buy yourself a window unit. Even after you get the central air fixed, it's good to have a backup.

Yeah the 16 day total precip on the GFS looks good. The nice thing is the precip comes from multiple events, so the odds of us getting something is high. Also if we can get (and keep getting) widespread rains across the whole SE, this would help keep major heat waves from forming.

I had a good storm last night. ~.60 rain, high winds, and some 1/4" hail mixed in. The rain was great. It had been some time since I had anything significant.

^^Yep, we're fast approaching that time of year where below normal temps feel good and normal/above is warm/hot.