FallsLake

RAH afternoon discussions stated the chance of some flurries and maybe a snow shower overnight and tomorrow morning: Another vigorous upper level trough dropping across the western Great Lakes this afternoon will drop into the southern Appalachians tonight and swing through the mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. While deep layer moisture is limited, the forcing for ascent is robust and sufficient to generate clouds and some spotty light precipitation late tonight and Wednesday morning. Convection allowing models provide a fairly consistent message in timing and location. Larger scale models pick up on this feature with the GFS being very aggressive in precipitation amounts with the NAM and EC with limited if any QPF. Clouds will continue to increase this evening from the west and northwest. Patchy light precipitation (flurries perhaps a snow shower) may break out in the southwestern Piedmont late this evening and then spread east and perhaps expand east/northeast overnight into the morning hours. Given limited confidence and QPF amounts, PoPs will be capped at around 35% in the southern/central Coastal Plain with mainly slight chance PoPs to the west. The thermal profile would support mainly snow with more of a rain/snow mix in the Coastal Plain by mid morning. Regardless, the precipitation will be scattered and convective and generally light. Given the cloud cover, temperatures will fall into the lower 30s in most locations. Thus, no accumulation is expected. As the upper trough shifts, east the main cloud shield will move toward eastern NC during the afternoon. Northwest to westerly flow will promote enhanced mixing and gusty winds during the afternoon. Winds will be northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with gusts of 25 to perhaps 30 MPH. Highs will be in the 40-45 range in the north to 45 to 50 range in the south. -Blaes Then they had this statement for the long range: Monday will be dry and seasonal with temps in the 60s before another low pressure system rolls in from the west and deepens over central NC late Monday night or Tuesday. Depending on the track and timing of the low and proximity to central NC, we will have to monitor this system for the potential for strong convection or wintry precipitation

Here's out to hour 69. Nice hit for central/northern NC into VA. I would still suspect much lower ratios (...everywhere); but I would gladly take one to two inches.

Yep. As I said before, we have nothing to lose and maybe a lucky win. It will take a perfect setup (...even more than normal).

NAVGEM would get the job done(great low placement). Just wish it wasn't March.

South is much better than being too far north. Plus its had some issues being too far south the last few years. But all the solutions on the table are viable; including the most probably solution of cold rain. **we have nothing to lose...

Here's a another view of the Canadian. This was a sizable shift southward from 0z:

Definitely interesting.

yeah just saw that. This is very interesting, but even if we can get the snow line (storm) south there will be all the normal issues (air temp, surface temp, etc.). I would say for folks outside the mountains a win would be just seeing snow fall from the sky.

If so, I sure hope it's a little farther east. I got less than 2" while folks to my west were buried.

From RAH: .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 315 PM Tuesday... The first half of the long term forecast looks fairly quiet but certainly cool for this time of year through Saturday. Dry weather is expected with temperatures only topping out in the upper 40s to low 50s with a warmup coming on Saturday as we might get some southerly return flow around a Bermuda High ahead that will surge temps up towards 60 degrees. The next weather maker for central NC will come in the form of a low pressure system forming over the Mississippi Valley and heading due east across Tennessee and across the Appalachians. Model agreement has been hard to come by with this system because there are many factors at play including a very strong exiting low off the coast of New England, the low in the MS valley and potentially a third coming out of Canada with high pressure squeezed in between all three in addition to the Bermuda High. Any or all of these features could be a major player in how the forecast evolves over the next several days. Currently it does look like we can expect precipitation beginning on Saturday night and lasting through at least Sunday night, maybe longer if the northern low materializes. For now forecasting all liquid but will have to keep an eye on the situation as thicknesses begin to flirt with values that could potentially bring some winter P-types into play although it is very premature to say exactly what that might be. Things will generally clear out for the first part of the work week, especially heading into Tuesday but temperatures will still be below normal with highs in the low to mid 50s and lows in the low to mid 30s.

CMC has some cold temps on the way:

I agree. I just want RDU to get to freezing again. To have our last freeze of the year occur in early February would be horrible.

It's really too bad this upcoming pattern didn't occur one month earlier (of heck two weeks earlier). The 12z GFS does show two potential storm events past day 8. Problem is time of year. Even with a great setup many outside of the mountains just can't get cold enough to see a significant winter storm. We can hope that the models are having a hard time determining surface temps with the March blocking but reality is it will be very difficult to score a late season storm (for lower elevations). For the mountain folks, I would be very excited with the upcoming potential. I have a son at Appalachian State and I told him to watch out for late next week and onwards.

Of course the 6z run doesn't have the same look; but it still has the overall pattern setup (cold, possible storm). At the 10 day range there'll be huge solution differences with each run. We have (try) to ignore the details and only focus on the pattern. Get us to Saturday/Sunday and hopefully a storm is showing.

I also agree. I think this will be the time period to hope for a late year miracle. At the very least, we'll be tracking some freezing temps.

Pattern change is within 7days now. As RAH states below, freezing temps likely. In most years this would not be an issue, but its been so warm I would hope they issue freeze warnings (...usually this doesn't start until the end of March). <LAST PART OF LONG RANGE> It will become breezy-windy in CAA behind the front Thu night and particularly with diurnal heating on Fri, amidst a tight height/ pressure gradient around the occluding deep layer low off the middle Atlantic coast. Temperatures will trend cooler, into the 50s, to lwr- mid 60s in srn counties Fri-Sat, with colder lows in the 30s to lwr 40s by the weekend, and some sub-freezing temperatures probable over the Piedmont on Mon morning.

12z GFS has a fantasy snow at day 9/10. I wouldn't get too excite about the look; its a perfect scenario where rates overcome producing heavy wet snow. I would actually like to see a setup where even more cold is established and a storm popping in the gulf. **at this range Honestly, I think our main concern is the possible/probable killing freezes.

JB is hyping the upcoming pattern (take it as you will). https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

After day 8 things do look interesting for a possible winter event. The big problem is the time of year. We're getting past our favorable time period for winter storms and it would take a near perfect setup for folks outside the mountains. It can happen, and this upcoming pattern could produce. If something was to develop, I would say this is now the time to wish for overnight snow (...remember our survey).

Yep, the front has passed many of us in north NC. I'm at 51 now. This is still sad; whereas we're in February and talking about 50s as cool.

Still not sure how far south the back door "cool" front will get: .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 305 PM Thursday... Principle forecast challenge remains how far into n-cntl NC the cold front moves, then to what degree it retreats nwd during the afternoon and evening hours. Forecast confidence is relatively high for the srn half of cntl NC, with persistence lifting and scattering of morning low cloudiness and fog, with with temperatures again in the upr 70s to around 80 degrees. Forecast confidence is similarly high that nrn locations from near Roxboro to Henderson to Lake Gaston and Roanoke Rapids Kerr will remain cool, in the 60s, with some upr 50s possible, amidst CAD and continued post-frontal low cloudiness, and a chance of light rain and drizzle in the morning. The greatest uncertainty and 10-15 degree bust potential will exist roughly along and just north of Highway 64, including the major metro areas along I-40. There will be a sharp gradient in temperatures in this corridor separating the two regimes noted above. The front will remain quasi-stationary and become increasingly diffuse Friday afternoon and evening, with an otherwise persistence forecast of continued mild conditions, with yet another round of late night low cloudiness and areas of fog owing to the persist unseasonably humid conditions in place.

12z GFS and CMC go to a cold pattern after day 7. At least killer freezes coming up for many across the SE.

Boring weather.....The only interesting thing is the question of how far south the back door cold gets tomorrow. As RAH states, there's a huge bust potential for highs (cool or warm). Low Confidence in Friday`s forecast across central and northern Piedmont and Coastal Plain. Challenging forecast give the model discrepancy in the location of the back-door cold front Friday morning, with the NAM indicating a brief reprieve from the anomalous warmth, at least across the northern half of the forecast area, via a shallow in-situ wedge north of the boundary. Meanwhile, the GFS and EC stall the front briefly along the VA-NC border, keeping all of central NC in the warm sector. Huge bust potential wrt forecast highs Friday. If the NAM is correct, northern areas will struggle to get out of the 50s with some patchy drizzle possible through the first half of the day. Meanwhile, areas south of the front will once again warm into the mid to upper 70s. Am not ready to go quite that cool across the northern Piedmont, but have certainly trended towards the cooler guidance. Conversely if the GFS and EC verify, all of central NC will see another day of near record warmth with mid 70s to lower 80s everywhere. Lows Friday night ranging from mid 50s north to lower 60s south.

18z NAM at mid day Friday(GFS keeps the cooler air in VA):

Killing freeze is going to happen. We're too early in the year for the warmth to keep hold for another 8 weeks (..until most are safe). Already the LR models are showing a trough for the eastern US. Of course this is way out in fantasy land but the pattern will flip cold before it's done.