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Everything posted by BrandonC_TX

  1. Baton Rouge seems to be on the back edge of the discussed activity. Storms out by Hammond look to be more of a concern.
  2. Lead cell just a left turn and is now headed for Meridian, that's is why that tornado warning is oriented the way it is.
  3. Tornado emergency wording taken off of the lead cell NE of Pachuta. Now just states "severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado." EDIT: Actually both cells are no longer tornado emergencies, but the warning for the second cell near Taylorsville says that there is a confirmed tornado.
  4. Possible debris ball between Macon and Brooksville, MS.
  5. Low-level lapse rates are better ahead of that line in southern Louisiana (now moving through the Lafayette/Baton Rouge areas). This might be one area to watch.
  6. Those cells down by the Gulf Coast, currently moving over Lafayette, LA, also have my attention right now.
  7. Looks like we might be seeing initiation there. If so, that would be very concerning, but it might not mature until it passes the Jackson area (but you never know).
  8. Moderate risk remains intact for the 1630z outlook. Concerns about convection surging ahead of the surface-based instability precludes a high risk upgrade. MDT extension into TN is for a 45% hatched wind risk; the 15% hatched tornado risk stays south of the TN/AL border.
  9. That line east of Shreveport may be encountering storm relative helicity of up to 700m^2/s^2 per SPC Mesoanalysis.
  10. New tornado warning includes Leander and Cedar Park. This is very concerning now that highly-populated areas are in the path.
  11. Uptick in precipitation cores over Parker, Tarrant, and Hood counties could be a problem for DFW if they intensify. All the precipitation in the area should be stabilizing things, but SPC Mesoanalysis still indicates plenty of CAPE in the region. Not thinking too much of it though. There may even be twin tornadoes south of Marble Falls. Two tight couplets are showing up on radar velocity.
  12. Right turn in the storm approaching Round Mountain could be a problem for the northernmost suburbs of the Austin area (especially Leander and Georgetown) if it continues on this track.
  13. Correlation coefficient suggests tornado on ground E of Eckert, TX.
  14. That cell definitely seems to be falling apart. It is no longer severe-warned. Question is if less convection tonight means there will be less junk convection across the southeast during the day tomorrow. Though I guess that could depend on the forward motion of the “main round” to develop in the next few hours.
  15. The supercell just north of Uvalde seems to have taken somewhat of a left turn, now aiming it towards the San Antonio metro area, provided that it holds together and remains on this track. The most intense part of the storm is probably about halfway between Del Rio and San Antonio now, though I would not expect the storm to impact the San Antonio area until after 12am (likely sometime after that).
  16. Additional convection is now going up, behind the initial supercell, from around Langtry, TX south to the Serranias del Burro. Unfortunately it is going to be difficult to clearly see any rotation on the initial supercell near Brackettville as it passes near/over the radar site. Radar imagery should get better again once the storm approaches the east end of the current warning polygon (provided that severe weather doesn't damage the radar, of course).
  17. Updated image just came out from SPC Mesoanalysis. The rapid increase in effective SigTor values is apparent just across the Mexican border:
  18. Yikes, RAP has the effective SigTor values exploding west of San Antonio over the next few hours. Another plume of increased effective SigTor is apparent moving towards DFW. This does not mean that storms will exploit this, especially for DFW, but San Antonio might as well be playing with fire given that storms might actually exploit those SigTor values down that way. Might be a different story for DFW if that storm west of Mineral Wells holds together, but that seemed to weaken once it hit the cooler airmass.
  19. That's what I was thinking. It would need to follow US-90 for that to happen though; if the storm continues to take a right turn it might pass just south of the metro if it holds together. Even if it took somewhat of a left turn relative to the US-90 corridor (that's doubtful), San Antonio sprawls out much more to the north than to the south. The most intense part of the storm is still about 40 minutes from Brackettville; eastward motion is only 25 mph. San Antonio has several hours before this particular storm hits, but if anything develops ahead of this they could get storms sooner.
  20. Here’s the couplet near Del Rio. If anything, that RFD looks pretty strong. Probably had some strong winds in Ciudad Acuña with that activity.
  21. It also looks as if there is a possible couplet just SW of Del Rio based on velocity data. Given storm motions, this area of rotation will go right over Del Rio. No tornado warning at this time though.
  22. The severe thunderstorm warning for Del Rio and points north is now up. The storm is warned for 1.25 inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts.
  23. There is a huge storm coming into the north side of the Del Rio area right now. The storm core is still on the Mexican side of the border, but I'm surprised that there is not a severe thunderstorm warning out already given the proximity. We are getting some rain right now, so that might have a stabilizing effect. Interestingly enough the area of rain seems to be under the cloud debris from the storms that went up down by San Angelo. Many years ago I remember how anvil rain eroded a cap over the Metroplex and caused supercells to form unexpectedly; not expecting tonight will be like that though.
  24. Big hook between Lueders and Albany. Artifacts on the KDYX radar near the radar site might make the strength of the rotation look stronger that it actually is, but I would not be surprised to see a tornado warning if the rotation strengthens. EDIT: good news is that the rotation looks pretty ragged as it moves into Albany. This could change, however.
  25. The storm over Lueders seems to be developing a hook and may be showing signs of strengthening rotation. Any rotation that develops out of this storm could move closer to (or even over) Albany. I do not want to see this happen seeing that Albany got hit with a tornado less than a month ago on March 19th.