DDweatherman
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Everything posted by DDweatherman
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Wow Olaf won b2b, I'd take the amount of snow we got those years over some of these predictions. And that is not saying much...good luck everyone. I gotta give my estimates a few more days thought.
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Nope, red flag warnings instead.
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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
DDweatherman replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
12Z GFS took a TS into the gulf, borderline small cane. It just continues NW and de-amps over the NW gulf at the end of the run. CMC otoh takes a pretty clear cane up through the Yucatan channel then hard turns NE towards the keys. ICON takes a major through the channel and is in the SC GoM at h180. -
ADT in the high 6's with a 152kt max at the moment.
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Looked like a 100-110mph storm with an eye present on those last few images as it made this LF on Cuba.
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While I hear what you're saying, maybe you should ask the people affected how they feel about that statement. Of course the worst case doesn't happen in many cases, but we are in a world where it's better to be safe than sorry, especially when you're talking double digit storm surges in one of the most surge susceptible metro areas in our country. That same area is one of the quicker growing regions in the US as a whole.
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Crazy story. I can't imagine that one. This certainly would have been a crazy statistical outbreak if there was more land to cover. I got curious and checked, and sure enough there were a few tornado touchdowns in the Bahamas. Proves that there were tornadoes east and likely dozens of waterspouts out off the coast of FL.
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I’m interested to see the damage estimates on Milton. We’ll see things funnel in from the hardest hit surge areas south of Sarasota I suspect, but I haven’t yet seen any level of extreme/catastrophic damage from freshwater flooding, surge, or winds just yet. The tornado damage might be the most impressive.
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There and if parts of Sarasota got a 10-11’ surge, I’m sure Venice down through Englewood to the Port Charlotte area did not fair well.
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That’s a really impressive couplet Andy. We’ve seen Tor Emergencies for storms with that kind of profile.
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About 3.5’ surge so far there in Naples, and they’re headed for high tide.
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Latest recon fix has the pressure down 1mb and actually more of a northerly heading vs previous fixes.
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Radar is also trying to wrap rain/convection around the center last few frames.
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Everyone can speculate but that to me shows the weakening halted and could give fuel to the N/NE eyewalls on approach. Dry air never really got to this either, we don’t have the half cane a lot of models showed. If that -80c convection focuses on the northern semicircle, watch for a slight tug in that direction.
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I’m with goose, this would have to take a ENE hook from its current heading in my eyes to not go over Anna Maria or Tierra Verde into the bay.
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I’d say that the “bleed” south models had before has stopped on most guidance. Every wobble is going to certainly play a part like NHC alluded to. Last few wobbles have headed back NNE. Admittedly, I don’t know how you couldn’t be sweating bullets in Tampa/St.Pete at the moment.
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Thank the lord himself this banter thread exists for some of what I’m reading. If your posts are disappearing in the main thread, think out loud before you post them. this is the spot for talking about how long the earth has been around.
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Tornado warning for a tor OTG near Cape Coral headed towards Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda & the airport.
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47 IKE for Ian, so what Milton is at now.
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Yeah I’m seeing this ”At landfall in southern Louisiana and Mississippi, Katrina had weakened to SS3 status (52 m s–1), but the marine- equivalent wind field in the storm core expanded (Fig. 1c) resulting in a respective IKETS of 122 TJ.” From an AOML article.
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47 with likely 60-75 at LF, that’s going to cause some serious issues on the surge front (no surprise). 42 is around what Rita had if I’m not mistaken.
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It may be. I’m probably wrong, but I swore with Ivan there was a MDT risk associated with that one.
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It’s possible, more likely because the shear is coinciding with the Ewrc. The storm aligning with the shear vector should reduce overall impact, especially at this juncture since the storm hasn’t reached the stronger shear in the C/N gulf.
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The twitter link above also shows the measured 184mph surface wind reading from the drop.
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In my opinion the winds are higher than nhc has them at, considering the sonde’s and recon data posted above. Those support 180-185mph on the max sustained winds.
