DDweatherman
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Everything posted by DDweatherman
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Insane run. But the other models have started to thwart the weakening and dry air/shear combo closer into LF, so it’s hard to say. That will be more of a short term nowcast I’d say. Even at that 71mb weakening it sits at the same 955mb the GFS is at on the shore of the bay.
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Contamination aside, not every day you see almost 200mph SFMR.
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You’re probably right. Sad to realize even if it hit at 955 that alone would be enough for a really dire situation in the bay.
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No words for that rate of intensification.
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This has a scary feel down here. I’ll be getting back towards home tomorrow. Had thoughts of “chasing” this down here, but that’s a tough one.
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The spaghetti models have had a center on Sarasota for a while now. The GFS, HAFS, HWRF, and I believe HMON all go over Tampa or just north.
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My hunch, we’ve seen stronger solutions further north. ensembles are lower res and don’t deepen the storm as much, hence their further south progs.
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The cmc in general is not a good model. It was 48 hours slower than the other major models yesterday. Though this has slowed, it’s not by that much.
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18 west to east moving canes across the gulf originating in the bay of Campeche I believe since 1885, and the only true track like the nhc projection was pre 1900.
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I don’t really think it’s quite that north but the turn NNE would maximize surge in Tampa Bay. A look like that would put 10-15ft of surge into the bay.
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Not surprised, especially given the ramp up in intensity overnight into this morning. A lot of the hurricane models have this presumably at cat 5 pressure in the central gulf before an ERC.
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Yep, I saw this today. Where are you in this? South Tampa near Davis? TI, Madeira and SPB, Ana Maria, etc. are even worse.
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It's clear that its a different setup. Look at whats up there, not a ton of influence one way or another from the mid latitudes.
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I don't disagree given the vector/heading, but given the bigger picture and macro environment, I wouldn't expect it to head towards big bend.
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Good points here. Also, with 18z models being a bit slower, makes you wonder the implication that has on the storm going a bit more N of prior runs. There's probably a limit to how far NW this can go.
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If anything, I expected this to trend to the south of tampa, like many of the big W FL storms have (Irma, Ian). I wouldn't expect a curve or jump NW, but some of the 'cane models show that in this evenings suite.
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Still a really formidable storm near the coast and in the past few years they haven’t weakened nearly as much as the early 2000’s storms approaching the coast. Plus if we have a cat 5 in the gulf that undergoes an ERC and hits as a larger 3, the surge will certainly be extreme if Milton tracks through or over TB.
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I’m mobile, but assuming the storm grows a fair bit in the open GOM following the ERC as it heads ENE towards the coast?
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The focus at this point is track, considering strength is likely to be a cat 3 or 4 approaching the west coast of FL.
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This could be Tampa’s most damaging hurricane depending on track.
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Both are pretty bad (meaning more surge) tracks for the Tampa Bay metro. This may pile up water out ahead of the storm more efficiently I’d think depending on where it actually comes ashore.
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Yes, it really is.
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My initial thought is probably Sarasota to Venice at c3.
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The central and northern gulf, not as much given the accelerated pace once it got north of keys latitude. It was large, so maybe that helps a bit. Any mets care to chime in?
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It’s hard to miss that much on a system @ 4-4.5 day leads that has a well defined COC which this has developed fairly quickly.
