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DDweatherman

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Everything posted by DDweatherman

  1. DDweatherman
    Eh its on and off with that feature, definitely a lot better than 12z overall.
  2. DDweatherman
    Heres to hoping they are as wrong as they were last night.
  3. DDweatherman
    Sad, but true. Even when it caves at 18z, it'll probably come back at 0z. The individual EPS members aren't all that far off with SLP positioning either, but without a cleaner phase of the northern piece, it has a much lesser mechanism to climb the coast and stays too pos tilted.
  4. DDweatherman
    He posted a radar image of central PA as well, HRRR doesn't have anything outside of the SW corner of the state.
  5. DDweatherman
    It's not really the southern stream thats the issue vs the other models. It's more the sloppiness from the N/S and the energy breaking off eastward.
  6. DDweatherman
    More serious reply, the vort isn't headed much south of due east thus far.
  7. DDweatherman
    We could employ weenie logic that it was too far north on part 1, so part 2 will go a bit north
  8. DDweatherman
    ML Lapse rates around 6 across the area coinciding with 850 fronto that's smack dab over MD right now. Where bands do develop, there could be a bit of convective nature and good rates.
  9. DDweatherman
    Radar looks pretty good in PA and back to the west. I'd be pretty optimistic for many judging from the significant uptick in precip. Just need it to hold together and keep that vort from de-amping too much on the way by.
  10. DDweatherman
    It's really not that far from something more like the GFS honestly. I'd say it's "better" overall with the pieces vs last run but we need more.
  11. DDweatherman
    Historically, the GFS actually has a good track record with the northern stream doesn't it?
  12. DDweatherman
    It's quite simple really. Ride the model that gives you the most snow, expect the model that shows the least to be right.
  13. DDweatherman
    There's a reason they call it Dr. No
  14. DDweatherman
    Love to see that improvement from the Canadian. GFS is capable of sniffing something out, but definitely need support, especially since this is only at d5.
  15. DDweatherman
    Couple inches for us on the GGEM, 126 there's a 997 on the outer banks. Slides out from there, but much improved.
  16. DDweatherman
    How about another model show this other than the JV GFS?
  17. DDweatherman
    Not terrible at face value, nice scene of snow falling and over 3" OTG here. Not 6+ but maybe I grab 1-3" this afternoon/evening.
  18. DDweatherman
    Same, hr 90 is a nice look. Much less of a disorganized mess.
  19. DDweatherman
    The adage really is true, you want to ride the mix line a bit and then use your geography to your advantage. When its all snow 50-100 miles south of you, theres the distinct chance you're caught in subsidence or lighter rates.
  20. DDweatherman
    Don't forget that is retro to 7am today, so it shows some QPF that has already fallen or was modeled to fall.
  21. DDweatherman
    Not terribly different, but baja s/w is held back a bit more. Worth staying tuned.
  22. DDweatherman
    You said it well, the corridor along 70 east of the Catoctins up through Westminster proper and across to say Hunt Valley and north have been the worst off relative to their averages. Even in my area, the November storm was rain/snow mix 3 miles from me, 1" a couple streets down, but 2.5" up here at 900ft.
  23. DDweatherman
    I'd agree with this very much. That's its actual purpose. It's a mesoscale focused model thru and thru.
  24. DDweatherman
    Anyone that entrusts in the long range HRRR doesn't see what its capable of in the convective season. I've seen it wrong by a lot at hour 3
  25. DDweatherman
    Yeah, it actually has decent sim rad echoes and our h5 vort looks healthy.
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