TugHillMatt

Agreed. So many burns...and the stupid models sucked us in again this week. They looked fantastic Monday through Wednesday afternoon. If the Nams and UK are right, the trace to 1 inch will be melted while it's still flurrying on Saturday.

Not one storm has been easy here. Not one. Maybe next winter will be better................................................................................................................................................................... lol

It's so ridiculous there's this much disparity amongst the models so close. The trend of it becoming a non-storm is unfortunately increasing.

Losing the Canadian some as well. The timing this winter just has not worked out well.

Rap is heading in the direction of the NAM as well. Sharp cutoff. Riding the line. Shocker, shocker.

It all of a sudden looks like all the other systems this season...just more south and east.

It too shifted SE a bit. Ok, NW trend can start any minute now.

WRF even further SE than the NAMs. lol

It would be the absolute classic ending to this winter if Overrunning hits Buffalo to Watertown and then the coastal low hits downstate and this area is stuck in the middle. Absolutely classic.

The thing is, the NAM's snowfall area isn't that different from the FV3. But, it just suppresses and dries out the northern part of the snow field. The snow over PA looks very similar on both, but then it like vanishes over NY.

If NAM ends up correct...unreal. What a disaster of a winter for CNY.

12Z Nam looks even worse. lol... Where's the CUT? Where?!?! It happens every other time.

I'm telling you...if the NAM products were human, they would kill me. They're like a bitter ex-spouse. They hate me. If I wasn't sane, I'd be scared to sleep at night with a computer tab of the NAMs open on my laptop...

Indeed! It looks like several of you are very familiar with that area! It was such a beautiful area to grow up in and encouraged my passion for weather and nature. It is THE hidden secret of Lancaster County (until I just blabbered about it.) lol

I was a Marticville middle School student as well! I still tell people about my middle school being built on a fault line and how you could actually see the crack going through the school! I lived on the hill right above Fisher's Steel and Pequea Elementary School. I could see Marticville Middle School miles and miles away from my house. Oh, the view! The wind there was insane.

Yes, indeed. It's really fascinating how it works. The areas I mentioned are actually in Penn Manor School District. The district is huge in area and the southern end from where I was outside of West Willow to Mt. Nebo had a more extreme climate than other areas of the county. More snow, wind, and INTENSE thunderstorms. Those storms would form over southern York county and roll along the hills into S. Lancaster county. The local news stations always would broadbrush "lowest snow totals" there because it was "south", which didn't always work out. I remember several times going from Millersville down to the Conestoga River on Rte. 741 with nothing, and then coming up the hill to the New Danville Turkey Hill and then all of a sudden snowcover. Like I said, the further south towards Mt. Nebo and in higher elevation, it was even more extreme. I always wanted to live down there. lol

If there's been one trend this season, it's been "looks great for days and days and then goes to crap for anyone within the THM sphere of influence within 2 to 3 days of the system." That's another reason this season has been so tough to take here. Looks good, looks good....and then CRAP.

Hopefully the stupid troll NAMS are wrong. GFS is tightening up the snowband. Rgem looks extremely similar.

Unfricken believable. I need a new hobby.

So Nam and GFS are clearly weaker than their runs from earlier today.

Where I grew up in Southern Lancaster county (about 600 feet) I remember several times each winter we would have snow on the ground during borderline events while at Penn Manor high school in Millersville (lower in elevation) would have rain or just wet snow. Mt. Nebo and Martic Township, at their higher elevations, were even snowier. That area is a VERY unique microclimate that many people don't know about.

I fell really hard while on a ski trip in high school and was sore and black/blue for a couple days. I fell on ice in the parking lot at work a month ago and am still sore and have sharp pains at times. Chiropractor has helped. But, it's just a reminder that I'm not a resilient high schooler anymore. I'm guessing our friend in Geneva is close to your age and not a geriatric patient like the rest of us above 39 years old or in their golden years like @Syrmax or @CNY_WX

Oh, I wasn't talking about the same type of storm. I was referring to the maddening cutoff between BGM and SYR.

Great run:

Rgem at least still looks solid. Looking like a 1 footer event on its run.