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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Good people, great smiles!
  2. olafminesaw
    Are the cells training over the northern portion of Alabama going to create a boundary that will enhance tornado risk to it's south?
  3. olafminesaw
  4. olafminesaw
    If there's any consolation, it's that the primary threat area is centered over the least populous part of that region. Of course all those bigger cities in the moderate/enhanced are certainly quite at risk as well, but a silver lining nonetheless
  5. olafminesaw
    Kinda surprising they didn't go with 45%
  6. olafminesaw
    I think statistical analysis is an underutilized tool in meteorology. In any case of extreme weather, the distribution is skewed right. I figure in setups like these the distribution drops off to the right side of the curve very quickly because of how fragile they are. Extreme environments have a very narrow envelope of CIN, or they fail spectacularly, one what or the other
  7. olafminesaw
    Wind has shifted to the S instead of SE, should see a steady increase in temp/dewpoints. It's a race between the line of storms and the warm air advection
  8. olafminesaw
    Thankfully, not the tightest of couplets on the west tuscaloosa storm, for now
  9. olafminesaw
    Are probabilities defined as odds of a tornado within a circle who's radius is 25 miles, or as odds that a line segment 25 miles long will be crossed by a tornado?
  10. olafminesaw
    Especially with rain chances throughout the day and no sun. Definitely reminds me of april 19 2019 (although I think that setup was a lot more CAPE dependent)
  11. olafminesaw
  12. olafminesaw
  13. olafminesaw
    For those wondering, blacksburg radar should be back up and running this evening and Raleigh should be back up by the end of Wednesday
  14. olafminesaw
    This sounding is just....bonkers
  15. olafminesaw
    Sorry, I was in the wrong thread
  16. olafminesaw
    Kinda ironic that suppression only becomes a problem when march rolls around
  17. olafminesaw
    When the NAVGEM is all you've got...
  18. olafminesaw
    This is a 5/5 on the weenie scale
  19. olafminesaw
    Big oof
  20. olafminesaw
    Just need DCA to be the jackpot on a March snowstorm. How hard could it be?
  21. olafminesaw
    Definitely a classic case of radiation cooling with clear skies and calm winds. Low spots significantly cooler. Made for some heavy frost and icy spots from runoff. Today and tomorrow are classic coat in the morning, t-shirt in the afternoon weather.
  22. olafminesaw
    EPS Mean snow depth for next week
  23. olafminesaw
    1031 high in the ohio valley with a low developing in Louisiana on the Euro. Checks chip stack....shoves all in Edit: welp, high slides east and another ice storm for us (and yes, I realize models are mostly useless at this range)
  24. olafminesaw
    I'm usually fully convinced this will be the time I won't get sucked in, but... approximately one model cycle later I'm fully emotionally invested. Might as well go full weenie now and get it out of the way
  25. olafminesaw
    Run from it..dread it... Destiny arrives just the same
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