olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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To be fair, Ian never once strayed outside the cone as far as landfall point (looking back at the graphics archive). I think there's a lot to be done in terms of communicating probability of different on the ground impacts. The general public has a hard time grasping what to expect.
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For sure. I think 40-50 mph is possible, but much more than that is unlikely. The current forecasts don't seem to be calling for much in the way of wind, so it may catch some by surprise, although it seems because of what happened in Florida, many are at least weather aware.
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I'm growing somewhat concerned about the wind threat across the Piedmont. While sustained winds diminish, the HHHR and the hires Nam have gusts over 60 mph for much of the region, the GFS in the 40-60 mph range, and the Euro in the 30-40 mph range. There must be some synoptic scale features at play. Usually the HRRR does a good job of picking up on these, but we may not have a clear idea until tomorrow morning what's coming our way.
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HAFS makes landfall near Charleston as a borderline cat 1
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Largest TS force wind field at this latitude since Sandy? Could push some serious water into Savannah/charleston
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I also think the dry stable air is going to mitigate the threat of winds/flooding. Fresh water and coastal flooding will be a rather big deal for coastal SC though. The 18z Euro
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Yellow is 14", white 20"
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I feel like it's pretty normal for the highest surge to be pretty far from the center. Maybe Naples is actually pretty much in the highest surge zone
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Looks like they're going in for one more pass right before landfall.
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,based on current radar trends surge may be worse in Cape Coral than Port Charlotte. Absolute highest surge may go between the two population centers.
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Based on radar, if trends continue, a landfall on Boca Grande seems likely. 8 miles or so south of the official track
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It's going to be really close. Should be there in about an hour. Plenty of time to make one last pass
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Seems to be more or less stair stepping towards the coast. More North the last few frames
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Looks like it's starting to feel the shear a bit
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Thank goodness for recon. This certainly doesn't look any stronger than a low end cat 4 on satellite
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Yeah looking "weak" on that side on radar too. Seems to be becoming more uniform as we speak though
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The new eye is about 40 miles across. Still has some work to do, but the EWRC appears to be mostly complete
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Starting to see the new eyewall on satellite
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You can also see the process take place here, it's kinda clear it needs to contract some more before any chance of strengthening: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2022_09L/web/displayGifsBy12hr_05.html
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I feel like a good rule of thumb is the eye ends up about halfway between the size of the inner and outer when the process begins. Just from observing these happen and being rather fascinated by the process. Also I've noticed there's often a stubborn little bit of the original eyewall left that takes a while to die.
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The EWRC seems to be moving along fairly quickly. This is not shocking as it is moving over extremely warm water and seems to be dealing with fairly minimal shear atm.
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If if it's not approaching cat 5 with a pin hole eye making landfall in a highly populated area it doesn't count. Obviously.
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I want to say 12ish hours is pretty typical, but can be longer
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Looks like a classic EWRC to me. This one may take some time due to the large size of the outer eyewall. Hard to say if it will have time to recover by the time it makes landfall.
