olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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RAH Is always seems to be one of the most conservative offices I've encountered. I think their current call Is a perfectly plausible outcome, but more seems likely. They're currently calling for more rain than snow, at least in their hourly, which is a bit strange.
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This map created midday yesterday is starting to look awfully reasonable (if a bit aggressive)
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Yup
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For those stuck in the dry slot, could be be a pretty frustrating event, looks promising to start, get a dusting, then hours of drizzle/light snow. For those at the pivot point, it could be pretty epic: a couple inches on the front end, then possibly mixing with sleet, then a couple more inches as the deform band rolls through. The triad could go either way at this point, but 1"+ is feeling pretty solid right now
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Hires snowfall totals
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Hires nam is blah on the front end (outside the mountains), brings the goods on the back end.
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Hmm
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NAM a step towards the Euro, as far as having a dry slot east of the foothills (to start anyway, then it starts to fill in)
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The Euro definitely moves quicker and hugs the coast less than the NAM, which is one reason for the discrepancy. I think the hires NAM works as a decent middle ground (although I'd definitely think less than it depicts Is likely)
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GFS looks, warm, but just glad it didn't jump north. Time to start relying on hires models.
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Loooong range HRRR looks nice. An initial thump like this would go a long way towards dropping surface temps (even factoring in the HRRR's cold bias) may get sleetier than expected.
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6z models bring the moisture but seem pretty warm
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NAM looking north at 45
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Much different system but:
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I feel like the Euro likes to overdo precip in the medium range sometimes, but wowzers. Lock that puppy in
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Becoming a lot less relevant, but:
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If he's correct, we'll see a response in the models by 0z. May have to do with convective feedback. Definitely a storm where the hires models will be super helpful.
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Yeah, it seems do be drier with the initial surge of moisture, but then the low kinda backs in towards the coast, allowing moisture to back-build. Could be good for ensuring some snowfall across the board, with less WAA and more consistent banding (after a potential initial thump)
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RGEM looks really good for the piedmont/mountains. Slower than the rest of guidance, but pretty wet
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Exactly what I like to see 3 days out
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Bowling ball incoming
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I'm not liking the borderline temp profiles. Seems pretty rate dependent. But, a good chance we see some snow for some of the storm at least, but has that miller-B screw-job kind of look, where the moisture dries up and the cold air never really gets established. Chance of an inch in Greensboro: 50%
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Not bad
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Mostly sleet south of the VA border
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Yeah, not too thrilled about a thread the needle setup at the front end of a pattern change. And yet, the best chance of the year. Mountains and central VA, a different story though.
