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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Models have trended drier for sure. But the Euro ensembles have good agreement on .5-1.5" of rain. The GEFS is more all over the place and opens the door for the front to dry out entirely as you allude to. But there's a strong cluster in the .75-1" range. I think we can feel pretty confident in .5"+, which is not enough but a win relative to what we've gotten the past 6 weeks or so
  2. olafminesaw
    The first extreme drought since 2017 has been issued for some of NC's SW counties. Next Tuesday's system is looking promising for rainfall, especially for the mountains. it looks like a long duration rainfall which will help prevent runoff as well
  3. olafminesaw
    No meaningful rain on the GFS in the next 10 days. The Euro brings through a frontal system next Wednesday that drops .5-1". Unfortunately we've seen how these fronts have dried out as they've approached. Hopefully we get a pattern change around or just after Thanksgiving. I am glad we are stuck in this pattern now and not in mid January!
  4. olafminesaw
    Some signs of moisture in the 4-10 day period
  5. olafminesaw
    On the other hand...
  6. olafminesaw
    More rain to come after the run ends. This would certainly be a drought buster
  7. olafminesaw
    Flashbacks to last December
  8. olafminesaw
    GSO reporting light rain and 33% humidity
  9. olafminesaw
    Moisture moving in on radar but dry air bleeding down from VA is going to win out. 60/39 with dew point dropping and temp remaining stable. I don't see us getting more than a few raindrops
  10. olafminesaw
    BWI: 27.3" DCA: 22.1" IAD: 30.9" RIC: 11.3" SBY: 9.7"
  11. olafminesaw
    Weathergami! Pretty fun concept
  12. olafminesaw
    Rain shield activated
  13. olafminesaw
    Here is a comparison of temp/precip departures depending on enso state. It seems that El Nino skus more wet in the winter months vs in the fall months. Although El Nino years have reasonable odds of being dry as well
  14. olafminesaw
    I love this new graphic from IEM. Great way to visualize an entire month.
  15. olafminesaw
    63/16 at GSO, a RH of 16%. This is right around the average lowest RH for the entire year.
  16. olafminesaw
    Maybe something for the mountains to watch
  17. olafminesaw
    Wow. That beats nearly every coastal city on the East Coast, including Boston for lowest temp so far this fall. It ties the YTD coldest low at Portland ME, set this morning also.
  18. olafminesaw
    With an average first freeze date of Oct 30th one would think this morning's low at GSO of 27 is not particularly unusual. However every degree becomes more difficult to attain this time of year. The average first date at or below 27 is Nov 13 and we have not reached this threshold this early since 1976
  19. olafminesaw
    Incredible photographs (hopefully not paywalled) https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2023/10/photos-acapulco-aftermath-hurricane-otis/675835/
  20. olafminesaw
  21. olafminesaw
    Really a bizarre frontal passage. Low humidity ahead of the front and clear then clouds and increasing humidity behind it, with a wedge settling in a full 12 hours hours later. Any idea what's driving this?
  22. olafminesaw
    6 weeks later and we'd be looking at a nasty little ice event
  23. olafminesaw
    The GFS has a high temp of 84 on Monday and an afternoon high of 47 on Tuesday. While spoiled in the record books by a midnight high, this would be about as extreme a swing as we see around here!
  24. olafminesaw
    It certainly is dry. But also a good time of year for it.
  25. olafminesaw
    A survey of the city proper. Looks like overall the area around the bay fared better than the tourist strip
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