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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Eh. I wouldn't give the GFS too much credit given how much it folded to the Euro (gradually), while the Euro hasn't taken any meaningful steps back to the South (yet)
  2. olafminesaw
    the Euro has little to no snowfall with a sounding like this leading up to the storm and blocking
  3. olafminesaw
    February 94 as well.
  4. olafminesaw
    What in the heck is that mess? I think the red and orange should be flipped?
  5. olafminesaw
    Euro vs GFS, big differences still
  6. olafminesaw
    Come on Euro. Make happy hour great again
  7. olafminesaw
    We kinda already have a bit I think in general. Really need the Euro to move in that direction, it has been stubborn
  8. olafminesaw
    Seems a bit north so far but the ridge is stronger to the East so that may help suppress as the system moves East
  9. olafminesaw
    I agree, although I could definitely see a massive dry slot cutting into QPF way more than models are showing. At this point 4-6" of sleet or bust in my mind.
  10. olafminesaw
    This sounding is bonkers, 11 degrees at the surface and 40 degrees 5000 ft up
  11. olafminesaw
    The ICON looks like a step in the right direction through 72, with more spacing
  12. olafminesaw
    RGEM is showing a wide stripe of sleet with a more narrow zone of ZR in the deep south. Once it is in range, it will be a key model to watch
  13. olafminesaw
    Yeah I think it's just frustration at losing the once in a generation snowstorm potential. I find myself chasing the high of the "big one", that I experienced when I was a kid. But I know at the end of the day it will come ago and melt away and my life overall won't be better or worse as a result of what happens. Snow is a gift at the end of the day
  14. olafminesaw
    Yep, reposting what I shared yesterday. This low track was 2" snow, 2" sleet and minimal ZR in the triad
  15. olafminesaw
    6z Euro is largely the same, maybe a touch south overall. The bleeding stops now, we can only hope
  16. olafminesaw
    Totally agree. I do think there is an upside with more moisture early on Saturday from overrunning where the triangle/triad could over perform.
  17. olafminesaw
    And the full run
  18. olafminesaw
    GEFS still not buying the Euro, ticked south at 6z
  19. olafminesaw
    Praying for a sleet bomb and not the ZR Nightmare the Euro depicts at this point. The 6z GFS at least didn't make any big jumps north so maybe the 6z suite can stop the bleeding (although I know many believe the corpse to be already dead)
  20. olafminesaw
    Sometimes model tracking feels kinda like this, you get the weight on there just right, hold your breath and...
  21. olafminesaw
    There's just so many moving pieces. Will see a bunch more solutions before it's all said and done. Maybe that means freezing rain to the NC border. But also it wouldn't be a huge shock to see things swing back the other way
  22. olafminesaw
    FYI that is taking sleet and considering it snow
  23. olafminesaw
    Earlier phasing and East. Should be a big run with a stout HP well placed
  24. olafminesaw
    Yep, no big changes so far, just a tick north
  25. olafminesaw
    I think the GFS is going to come out a bit more amped. HP isn't pushing as far south through 60 hrs
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