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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
  2. olafminesaw
    In case it wasn't abundantly clear, that is the edge of the model's domain being that it is a Canadian model
  3. olafminesaw
    The Hires RGEM. Did far and away the best with our last storm
  4. olafminesaw
    There's definitely some models that support that dry slot. It makes sense but it's kinda a 50/50 at this point
  5. olafminesaw
    People going to be calling bust tomorrow morning when there is expected to be a massive dry slot over central NC with banding to the NW. Going to have to be patient and wait for everything to fill in and pivot, just something to keep in mind
  6. olafminesaw
    Gorgeous. Almost the whole state at 6"+
  7. olafminesaw
    Do we need to start a separate thread?
  8. olafminesaw
    Getting down into the low to mid 20s overnight with full cloud cover is really impressive. Just goes to show how potent the airmass we are working with is
  9. olafminesaw
    The RGEM has the look of a model locked in, fairly small shifts over the past 4 runs.
  10. olafminesaw
    Greenville has a great shot at a top 5 daily snowfall record. Even a chance at the all time record of 13" set in 1896
  11. olafminesaw
    The NAM has been so inconsistent it is hard to take seriously
  12. olafminesaw
    Yeah and I think less moisture overall on the latest HRRR is in response to the overall trend towards more positive tilt
  13. olafminesaw
    Looks good for Raleigh to the coast, drier for the NW Piedmont
  14. olafminesaw
    The biggest thing that will help Raleigh is if the stall of the coastal occurs south of cape lookout. Will give a chance for banding to build in. Of course, the closer to the coast the better
  15. olafminesaw
    This map aligns with my thinking right now. I would also cut totals along the SE NC immediate coast
  16. olafminesaw
    I think the boom/bust potential is a little less in the triad, still feel like 4-7" is really pretty likely. The boom bust potential in Raleigh is much higher where I wouldn't be surprised if 2" feel or if a foot fell
  17. olafminesaw
  18. olafminesaw
    This guy normally posts satellite analysis that are really fascinating , hopefully he does some updates soon
  19. olafminesaw
    Feels like we're kinda back where we started 24 hours ago, just a bit south and without the crazy GFS outlier
  20. olafminesaw
    Lol, lock it in!
  21. olafminesaw
    I always find this guy to be pretty well reasoned. He's being understandably conservative
  22. olafminesaw
    We are 36-48 hours from the start and the UKMet has half an inch for Raleigh and the GEFS has double digit snowfall. Go figure
  23. olafminesaw
    GEFS has the jackpot pretty much right over Wake county, so there's that (.7-.8 liquid)
  24. olafminesaw
    So close to a big boom, just not quite there with the coastal. The tiniest bit more tilt and we would all be quite pleased, as it stands this is a big run for coastal areas
  25. olafminesaw
    GFS looks like an improvement in the upper levels,further west with the trough and a tiny bit more negative tilt
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