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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Wow, confirmation from the second plane too, 951.5 at least. So probably ~956mb
  2. olafminesaw
    Whoa, need confirmation from the drop, but 952.8 MB extrap , vs the pass before at 958.0 (drop was 963)
  3. olafminesaw
    The Nokia 3310 of hurricanes
  4. olafminesaw
  5. olafminesaw
    It's way out there, but the NAM has a pretty nasty signature for tornadoes on the back end on Sunday
  6. olafminesaw
    This radar image from recon seems to refute any signs of ERC that microwave indicated a few hours earlier
  7. olafminesaw
    Destin has a bunch of dense housing and touristy buildings/hotels right on/near the beach too, one of the more vulnerable areas that's more urban
  8. olafminesaw
    Seemingly no pressure rose yet. First pass 957 extrap
  9. olafminesaw
    Kinda looks like a double eyewall has appeared?
  10. olafminesaw
    Good writeup on Opal here, provides an excellent analog for impacts, albeit Opal was a category stronger at peak and landfall. Supports the idea of 10 ft storm surge and 100 mph + gusts at landfall along the immediate coast with hurricane Force gusts just inland https://www.weather.gov/mob/opal
  11. olafminesaw
    Coming in now for a rare pass #6
  12. olafminesaw
    Down from 960 to 959 MB on that latest dropsonde. Convection doing work
  13. olafminesaw
  14. olafminesaw
    Another convective tower trying to wrap around the eye as it fights some intense shear on the West side. Wish we had one more pass to see if pressure drops or holds steady
  15. olafminesaw
    Likely near peak intensity at just over major hurricanes strength right now with pressure leveling off around 960 MB and winds catching up to pressure now supporting a major hurricane around 115-120 at the surface
  16. olafminesaw
    A nice way to display the impacts (I think a little over cooked on the inland gusts though)
  17. olafminesaw
    The latest blend of models. Still looking promising
  18. olafminesaw
    Also we've seen how storms can maintain higher gusts as they weaken for a time. Plus with the broadening of the wind field inland gusts to 50mph+ will be quite widespread, which is impactful with all the trees
  19. olafminesaw
    Looks like it had to abort the mission although it's weird it didn't fly back to where it took off
  20. olafminesaw
    I would expect one more significant ramp up tonight before it hits the shredder Tommorow
  21. olafminesaw
  22. olafminesaw
    Loving this approach, feel like the NHC should adopt something like this
  23. olafminesaw
    Seems to be strengthening around the solar minima fighting back shear with convection then levels out as soon as convection starts to die down during the daytime.
  24. olafminesaw
    HAFS A and B are predicting a decapitation at landfall
  25. olafminesaw
    Yup ...
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