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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Yeah and I think less moisture overall on the latest HRRR is in response to the overall trend towards more positive tilt
  2. olafminesaw
    Looks good for Raleigh to the coast, drier for the NW Piedmont
  3. olafminesaw
    The biggest thing that will help Raleigh is if the stall of the coastal occurs south of cape lookout. Will give a chance for banding to build in. Of course, the closer to the coast the better
  4. olafminesaw
    This map aligns with my thinking right now. I would also cut totals along the SE NC immediate coast
  5. olafminesaw
    I think the boom/bust potential is a little less in the triad, still feel like 4-7" is really pretty likely. The boom bust potential in Raleigh is much higher where I wouldn't be surprised if 2" feel or if a foot fell
  6. olafminesaw
  7. olafminesaw
    This guy normally posts satellite analysis that are really fascinating , hopefully he does some updates soon
  8. olafminesaw
    Feels like we're kinda back where we started 24 hours ago, just a bit south and without the crazy GFS outlier
  9. olafminesaw
    Lol, lock it in!
  10. olafminesaw
    I always find this guy to be pretty well reasoned. He's being understandably conservative
  11. olafminesaw
    We are 36-48 hours from the start and the UKMet has half an inch for Raleigh and the GEFS has double digit snowfall. Go figure
  12. olafminesaw
    GEFS has the jackpot pretty much right over Wake county, so there's that (.7-.8 liquid)
  13. olafminesaw
    So close to a big boom, just not quite there with the coastal. The tiniest bit more tilt and we would all be quite pleased, as it stands this is a big run for coastal areas
  14. olafminesaw
    GFS looks like an improvement in the upper levels,further west with the trough and a tiny bit more negative tilt
  15. olafminesaw
    Exactly. We need to rely on the Globals now to nail down the tilt and then once the mesoscale models come into agreement on the low placement we can start to talk details. A more Easterly/offshore track is still possible, but globals generally don't show that solution
  16. olafminesaw
  17. olafminesaw
    RGEM has the screw zone more over the triad rather than Raleigh. Focuses energy on the coastal portion and drives the ULL moisture south
  18. olafminesaw
    Also I gotta say if you live in upstate SC/NE GA trends have been great for you guys over the past 12 hours. Would not be surprised at all to see Greenville SC get 6"+
  19. olafminesaw
    GRAF kinda mirrors the NAM, so I do think the concern is legit. It's wait and see time
  20. olafminesaw
    This is a now-casting event. Please do not live and die by every run of the NAM. Someone will be in the screw zone, someone will get a surprise foot
  21. olafminesaw
    One thing that could be a positive for the Piedmont is if the storm continues to tick south that initial deformation band will more likely settle over the area.
  22. olafminesaw
    models are struggling to resolve these blobs of convection and how/when/where these pieces will come together as a consolidated low. A bit more negative tilt would make a huge difference East of 85 as consolidation would happen earlier. Kinda running out of time for big shifts,but the Euro kinda moved in that direction set the orientation of the trough
  23. olafminesaw
    I am guessing most of those Eastern solutions are showing an elongated low with deeper pressure on the East side. The GFS OP has this feature, but the primary low on the West side
  24. olafminesaw
  25. olafminesaw
    The ULL dug further south. The coastal low pops off the coast but doesn't have time to consolidate before moving off shore. Most of the moisture is to the East, need more negative tilt to throw moisture back to the west.
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