olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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Good writeup on Opal here, provides an excellent analog for impacts, albeit Opal was a category stronger at peak and landfall. Supports the idea of 10 ft storm surge and 100 mph + gusts at landfall along the immediate coast with hurricane Force gusts just inland https://www.weather.gov/mob/opal
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Coming in now for a rare pass #6
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Down from 960 to 959 MB on that latest dropsonde. Convection doing work
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Another convective tower trying to wrap around the eye as it fights some intense shear on the West side. Wish we had one more pass to see if pressure drops or holds steady
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Likely near peak intensity at just over major hurricanes strength right now with pressure leveling off around 960 MB and winds catching up to pressure now supporting a major hurricane around 115-120 at the surface
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A nice way to display the impacts (I think a little over cooked on the inland gusts though)
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The latest blend of models. Still looking promising
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Also we've seen how storms can maintain higher gusts as they weaken for a time. Plus with the broadening of the wind field inland gusts to 50mph+ will be quite widespread, which is impactful with all the trees
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Looks like it had to abort the mission although it's weird it didn't fly back to where it took off
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I would expect one more significant ramp up tonight before it hits the shredder Tommorow
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Loving this approach, feel like the NHC should adopt something like this
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Seems to be strengthening around the solar minima fighting back shear with convection then levels out as soon as convection starts to die down during the daytime.
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HAFS A and B are predicting a decapitation at landfall
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Yup ...
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Yeah recon just found 988, so still fairly decent intensification which is quite impressive given how sheared it looks Also a nice little core evident on microwave:
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Yeah the center is squarely under the convective burst ongoing at the moment, would expect another substantial drop on the next pass
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Whoa
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Landfall right along the FL/AL line seems like the best bet right now
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Who would have thought as of a year or two ago the NHC would already be explicitly using AI models as part of their forecast in 2026 (courtesy of Google, of all entities)
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Yeah, convection will likely win the battle and pull/consolidate the llc, but it may take time (12+ hrs) before this really starts taking off
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It's easy to forget because of our unprecedented streak of strengthening hurricanes at landfalls in the GOM, but I remember how in the early 2000s it felt inevitable that significant weakening would occur at landfall along the GOM coast
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Piedmont split looking strong! At least we won't wiff this one right?
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