olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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The things is, we're in a great spot to thread the needle in terms of model spread. It's just frustrating we have no wiggle room one way or the other and it's trended that way for a days now (even as track/vortex evolution has trended favorable)
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I'm beginning to believe something like this is our best shot at accumulating snow with rain changing over to snow at the end
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My biggest concern is the trend towards the low popping off the coast further north, in a more miller B fashion. This would allow more warm air to migrate inland and best dynamics to stay north of the VA border until the low starts moving more NE. At that point it becomes a cold chasing moisture kind of situation
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It brings the arctic front in late, Eric Webb had mentioned this is a concern for East/central NC. I also noticed it is developing moisture much later/further north (in addition to bringing more moisture West/inland)
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RGEM and ICON start the party off significantly more amped than 18z
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Hard to take it seriously, it's holding the trough way back in Texas while the rest of guidance has it over the central gulf coast
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AI GEFS
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AI models favor this solution with the highest totals in NE NC and a sharp cutoff west of the Triangle
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I have a feeling that while the NW trend is our friend for now, it will become the villain before it is all said and done, at least for those East of 85
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Subtle improvements through 84 on the Euro I think. Hard to say yet if just noise
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The 12z OP was an amplified outlier to it's ensemble to some degree, so it makes sense that the op and mean split the difference and became aligned at 18z
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Boom big increase from 12z
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At 84 the RGEM looks good with respect to the trough orientation, but again, not quite in range
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Third the of weather club: toss the 84 hour NAM in the garbage and wait for the RGEM to run
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I thought more in line with the Euro than the GFS, but somewhere in between. Not worth dissecting the 84 hr NAM though
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FWIW the Euro AI looked better than the OP at 500 mb, while the GFS AI generally supports the OP GFS
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Ironically, unless all other models fold to the GFS, warm air aloft could be the savior of many with this system
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Looks like 10-15% support the GFS
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AI GFS Ensembles
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Not a disaster but not a step towards the GFS either.
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Yeah, some big differences in surface low location to resolve. Unclear if along 85 or the coastal plain will be the spot to be just yet
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As does the HRRR. As with the Sunday event, jet stream dynamics coming into play, often only gets picked up by short range models. Not saying something will happen on Thursday, but just something to keep an eye on
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Being near the left entrance region of the jet streak is favorable for us, and I would not be surprised to see some good trends at the surface as we get closer
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To be pedantic, it's not really overrunning since there's no warm air advection and no warm air aloft. The northern stream is squashing any warm air from the gulf but also squashing moisture
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And some of it's timing, further west means slower means more spacing between the waves and more ability to develop and for the trough to tilt negative
