olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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Much different system but:
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I feel like the Euro likes to overdo precip in the medium range sometimes, but wowzers. Lock that puppy in
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Becoming a lot less relevant, but:
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If he's correct, we'll see a response in the models by 0z. May have to do with convective feedback. Definitely a storm where the hires models will be super helpful.
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Yeah, it seems do be drier with the initial surge of moisture, but then the low kinda backs in towards the coast, allowing moisture to back-build. Could be good for ensuring some snowfall across the board, with less WAA and more consistent banding (after a potential initial thump)
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RGEM looks really good for the piedmont/mountains. Slower than the rest of guidance, but pretty wet
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Exactly what I like to see 3 days out
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Bowling ball incoming
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I'm not liking the borderline temp profiles. Seems pretty rate dependent. But, a good chance we see some snow for some of the storm at least, but has that miller-B screw-job kind of look, where the moisture dries up and the cold air never really gets established. Chance of an inch in Greensboro: 50%
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Not bad
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Mostly sleet south of the VA border
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Yeah, not too thrilled about a thread the needle setup at the front end of a pattern change. And yet, the best chance of the year. Mountains and central VA, a different story though.
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GSO has now surpassed 2003 to become the second wettest year on record. 1.76" is necessary to surpass 2018. Feels like a much more tame year than 2018, but consistent rainfall had pulled us close. The GEFS has ~1.2" through the end of the year
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Right up there with radar attenuation...
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Time to go full weenie?
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Mid-Atlantic winter 2020-21 snowfall contest
olafminesaw replied to AnEndlessMaze's topic in Mid Atlantic
BWI: 11.2" DCA: 8" IAD: 12 .8" RIC: 5.4" Tiebreaker SBY: 5" -
So far: 101.7 for regular 72.7 greek Got these from http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/
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We seem to have landfall
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Oof. Still stalled out too
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Is it possible that the reason Eta was weaker than satellite suggested because of how far south it is? I don't know much about the physics of hurricanes, but I ask because I was wondering if the coriolis effect only played a role in development or also in maintaining intensity
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Looks like maybe a bit of shear though, on the south side of the circulation? May prevent the eye from organizing very fast. Motion definitely seems more south than west right now
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Last minute change to 897 mb, 160 kts
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Kinda terrifying tbh
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The plane is making good time. Probably half an hour to go. I might be convinced to join team #sub900
