Hoth

Ok, I don't contest that it ties in. And I didn't really stumble upon it, I merely overlooked it initially when expatiating on the various economic dominos I consider ripe to tumble. I'm just curious how you apportion climate's contribution to the floods last spring. What is more responsible for that outcome, pattern or climate? The science certainly supports more extreme events in a warmer climate, but couldn't one have epic flooding merely thanks to a stable pattern that supports excessive rain? Or hypothetically, if New England took three canes on the chin in a month, would we be more apt to blame climate or pattern? Please don't take my tone as surly or anything. I'm genuinely curious how you as a trained meteorologist differentiate between extremes driven by pattern versus climate change. Thanks in advance.

Actually, I spoke too hastily earlier. There could be a climate tie in related to low crop yields in the midwest due to all that flooding earlier this year. That may drive some inflation in food prices. I think there's some data supporting that in China at least.

Greed can turn to abject fear in the blink of an eye.

Lol, we may be robotic to some degree by then, speaking of potentially existential concerns.

Winter is coming.

I'd be more worried about the pile of debt we're leaving our grandkids to pay.

One could argue it pulled a lot of people out of poverty globally; however, it certainly has not been a blessing for the middle class of most developed countries. There's a reason ours has eroded dramatically over the last thirty years or so. Our manufacturing has just been gutted by cheaper foreign operations-in China's case directly subsidized by the State in many cases. We just can't compete with that.

Agree. We are far more likely to come to grief via other means. Climate change will introduce strains, but we're a pretty adaptable species. I mean, we survived 100,000 years of brutal ice age with primitive tools and tech. Doesn't mean it's a challenge we should brush off, or that I don't support conservation and adoption of environmentally friendly tech. I do. But yeah, I would put global financial meltdown and the breakdown of civil society that comes with it--usually accompanied by civil or world war--as my top and most likely threat. Even as we speak, things look increasingly alarming. Setting aside the disruption of supply chains this trade kerfuffle with China is causing, we're seeing the break down of trade ties across the globe and a move to towards de-globalization and balkanization. To make matters worse, we have several systemic risks flashing red at the same time. China's banking system is like a much larger and more dangerous version of ours in '08, Australia, Canada, South Korea all have deflating property bubbles and likely face a credit crunch, Europe's banking system is insolvent and has absurdly high NPLs (and will be hurt even more by the ECB's move towards negative rates), the U.S. has built the mother of all corporate credit bubbles, emerging markets have record dollar denominated debt and will be in deep shite when recession kicks in in earnest and makes the dollar appreciate against their home currency, Italy is a 10x bigger version of Greece and populists there are fixing for a fight with the EU, changes in market dynamics over the last decade (momentum enhancing passive vehicles, corporate buybacks draining liquidity, algorithmic trading) could greatly exacerbate any fall in asset prices and, finally, the central banks are largely tapped out after trying to right the ship for the last decade. The odds of something exceptionally ugly happening to global economy are exceptionally high IMO.

Winner winner, chicken dinner.

So what will be the hot meteorological term the general public will cling to this winter? A few years ago every frost was a polar vortex, last year every flurry was a bomb cyclone, what will it be this year?

Not all of us. I'm personally thrilled to not be sweating my baguettes off in the near future. Bring it.

Maybe it's this cool shot across the bow, but just noticed I have some maples turning nicely orange and yellow at the crown. Seems really early down here.

What we call hell, he calls home.

Toodle pip.

Beautiful evening. My better half says now that dews are down, it's time to enjoy some COC.

Ok, but we wait for the CRAS for confirmation before we really freak out.

Wait until we get a mega CME. Goodbye grid for a long long time.

I didn't realize we had a cat 5 Cape Verde storm sitting off the Bahamas. Tell me more.

We watch. We prepare.

Almost looks a little bit like a PRE next Friday on the GFS. Or maybe some kind of inv trough type rain. Interesting look at 500 mb with a disturbance coming down through the Lakes. Sort of a 50/50 low look too.

Very poor dendritic growth though. Tough to accumulate.

Getting a nice drink. Grass and garden still remarkably green.

Could be, but I'm more familiar with them from looking at post mortem papers about storms like Hazel and '38.

Until I see a strong cut-off low in the Ohio Valley, I'll sell.

That'd be a helluva thing.