Hoth

Best of luck to you.

They should just cut that model off at like 120 hours.

Nah, then you risk a Christmas Story situation. And not with your tongue.

I feel like it should be termed the Fraud Fifty. There's a lot of stuff that can go on that list.

I have a hypothetical and I wonder if I can get some opinions. My great uncle lives in Sarasota just off the beach. His house is at best a few feet above sea level. If Dorian ends up plowing straight through central Florida and emerges into the Gulf around the Tampa area, Sarasota would have a strong onshore wind. Does anyone here believe it could be strong enough to pose a coastal flooding threat? I'm inclined to think this is a stretch, but I really don't know.

Yikes.

Euro pulling a Matthew, but displaced about 100 miles west. Capital T trouble.

Jeez, you'd find more cheer in a graveyard.

Is that from last January? Sure feels familiar.

Not if we nuke Dory first! Send in the B2s! Defend Mar-a-Lago to the last man!

That's some scary shit. My uncle's mother contracted it years ago. Was a vegetable for about a year before she finally passed.

Lol, Nammy with almost nothing here, while fifty miles away my summer house floats away into the Atlantic.

Mike Ventrice noted there is a suppressive Kelvin wave passing over Africa the next few weeks. I know little about such things, but he says that one would expect it to tamp down any wave activity. Who knows.

I thought the WAR was going to flex viciously?

Based on satellite, I'd be inclined to agree. I'd peg NL east for the real juice. Maybe 1-1.5" max here.

Nammy pegging me with like 4-5". That'd be the biggest event since that flooding rain last October.

When was the last time we had a legit PRE? I don't remember Sandy featuring one. Must be Irene? I think that had a pretty heavy rain event in the Boston area the day before landfall.

Josh Morgerman's hopping on a plane to Harwich as we speak.

After Sandy, that may be the event that stole the most sleep from me in the days leading up to it. Incredible event, although it was a dud in Boston (as was the rest of that winter).

Sandysurvivor has lashed himself to an I-beam and is patiently awaiting for the world to blow away.

It was a watershed day when I stumbled upon Eastern. And a terrifying one when it announced it was shutting down. Thank God for this place. For real.

I don't want to perpetuate a climate discussion in a weather forum any longer, but yes: the hypocrisy of many green leaders flying privately, owning enormous mansions (Elon Musk owns five in Bel Air alone) and spewing more CO2 per year than most use in a lifetime is not lost on the average joe and doesn't help their cause.

Thank you, Will. Much appreciated.

Yeah, you pretty much nailed it. The general idea is that if a civilization reaches a certain level of technological development, we should be able to detect it. But we haven't, so why? Thus the postulate that there may be certain natural and technological barriers that act as filters and either allow a civilization to progress or die out. Perhaps it is exceptionally rare and difficult to reach our present level of development. And even more rare to get over our present challenges, climate, resource depletion, political or otherwise, to become technologically advanced enough to spread out to neighboring planets/star systems. It probably gets easier to create extinction level risks as tech becomes increasingly powerful and distributed.

Thank you. Out of curiosity, are you familiar with the concept of Great Filters?