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CAD_Wedge_NC

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Everything posted by CAD_Wedge_NC

  1. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Yes, it has trended colder and colder with each EURO run and I don't think it's done yet. This one might have some legs. Have been watching it on the various models.
  2. CAD_Wedge_NC
    I understand the skepticism. However, I would not dismiss this one yet. It will be interesting to see the thermals once the higher resolution models come into range. Until then, I will be watching the trends.
  3. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Yeah, it looks like an elevation dependent event as of right now. However, it's been trending better for us foothills folks too.
  4. CAD_Wedge_NC
    That map will change many times before verification. Stick with the ensembles for long range forecasting.
  5. CAD_Wedge_NC
    This is going to be a good month. I can feel it. Currently foggy conditions and 50 degrees
  6. CAD_Wedge_NC
    I'll say this..... if the long range pattern comes to fruition, we will be tracking some big dogs in the next couple of weeks. I have not seen a better pattern than what's being forecasted in many years. This is what we have all been waiting on......
  7. CAD_Wedge_NC
    See, now that's where we differ...... Cold weather is needed for the ski industry in the Southern Apps. I don't care if I get 0 snow, as long as it's cold enough for them to make snow. A lot of folks' jobs are dependent on the cold. Let's not be selfish.
  8. CAD_Wedge_NC
    I don't understand the whining. This winter was supposed to be a wall-to-wall torch. Let's just be thankful we are not looking at a strong SE ridge and 75 degrees everyday. The pattern could be a lot worse.
  9. CAD_Wedge_NC
    NWS not buying it. Not even a mention of clouds in the forecast. Down-sloping makes it almost impossible to get any snow here in the lee.
  10. CAD_Wedge_NC
    23.9 degrees this morning with a very heavy frost. Even the shrubs are white.
  11. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Wait,,, what?.... I am confused....... Oh, I see now, you are talking about Greenville NC. Yeah, CAD storms don't really affect you guys.
  12. CAD_Wedge_NC
    I always look for a number of things to determine whether we will get a freezing rain event or not. This looks to be a very good example for the classical CAD event. 1) You want to see 850 Mb temperatures of -20C in ME (we have that) Check 2) You need that 540 line in Virginia (we have that) Check 3) A 1030+ high pressure around upstate NY (slightly north with this one) Check 4) Soil temps are important as well (no frozen ground with this one) Concerning but not a show stopper
  13. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Across the NC mtns and higher elevations of the Upstate and NE GA, snow will be the main p-type, where a few inches are possible across the srn escarpment and lower totals to the north. A lot can change with this system and the fcst will be adjusted over the next few days. One to keep an eye on. NWS seems to think the higher elevations will be ok.(excerpt from their afternoon discussion) Looking at the 12z GFS soundings, they show a very thin layer around 800mb above freezing up that way.
  14. CAD_Wedge_NC
    I have to agree here. History would tell you that the CMC is better in these situations while the Euro doesn't handle the Cad as well.... I would not get too concerned about the Euro in this instance. As a side note, once we get into NAM range, it will tell us all we need to know about the thermal structure.
  15. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Yeah, he's over on the other forum.
  16. CAD_Wedge_NC
    They removed it from the forecast, but GSP has a pretty good discussion about it this morning. The 12z suite today will be telling. If today's trends are not in our favor, it may be time to let this one go.
  17. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Meh.... let's see what the Euro has to say.
  18. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Speaking of Antarctica ..... "Ice extent is now well above the 1981 to 2020 median extent. This follows a remarkable transition from generally below median extent beginning in August 2016 to well above median extent just in the seven weeks preceding October 1, 2020". Why are we seeing the shift from near record low extent in the north, to near record high extent in the south? If this is a "global" issue, someone please explain the anomaly with Antarctic ice extent.
  19. CAD_Wedge_NC
    We will get that look in November of 2020 and again in April of 2021.We can't buy a -NAO in the heart of winter.
  20. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Burger sighting!...... Glad you're still alive and well. I have to agree here. I am skeptical of the lee-side snow-hole with the trajectory of the precip that's coming in.
  21. CAD_Wedge_NC
    06Z OP run doesn't agree with the ensembles.... it's probably a blip.
  22. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Here we go....
  23. CAD_Wedge_NC
    If that's true, why have the past several winters been so benign?
  24. CAD_Wedge_NC
    If only we had the technology on a global scale to convert this additional OHC into usable energy. I am sure some think-tank is already working on it.
  25. CAD_Wedge_NC
    At around 2:30, you can see large debris being lofted. This is clearly a large tornado, and that descending motion is real. Horizontal vortexes are not uncommon with well developed tornadoes.
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