Typhoon Tip

what... no - this has been the case a few times.

what we have is conceptual support here. we're just ( if yet - ) are not producing anything from it, from any of the various ens systems. granted at this range ( 9+ days ...) it's not always the case that materialization has already taken place. big tier events, however, due tend to at least rsvp the longer lead outputs with something. the fact that we are not seeing more could also be flow compression. it relegates the storm types to timing and placement - Walt mentioned needle threading and yeah ...we've been talking about that in here for the last week yadda yadda.. so we agree with him on that. we're not likely to see a curler on the charts in this regime - hell, we actually had some blocking preceding today's near miss, and the speed of the flow still managed to snatch a loss out of the jaws of success. the other aspect i'm a little leery of is the -epo/-pna tandem. it's a risk for cutters... i've seen lots of scenarios where active b-c zones along or off the ec at this range end up back toward buffalo, and we end up in a s drizzle driver. on the fence though because that same velocity soaked hemisphere tends to argue back east with the dx stretching

heh ... nice look on the ggem for the 20/21st

i'm approaching that here 2.75" S-

what a f'ed up week with this thing this was.. turns out the pick 'em part of the thread's title was spot on 2" so far; 25 f

part of my issue with this synoptically in this new form/paradigm with this thread... that's a fairly cold parcel aloft with some vorticity shrapnel rattling around inside as in/stream trundles through. i could see some sneaking meso clumping going on with that.

personally ... their reasoning is sus to me a little. i mean, 2023 with the pan-dimensional thermal burst ...which apparently, never receded... actually took place pre- NINO/ENSO state... so, that tells me that whatever that was, was quite logically not really occurring because' of NINO - there may have been some back and forth augmentation/superposition thereafter, but the thermal burst buries NINO somewhere inside. if that is true, not sure NINA/ENSO is going to be so readily quantitative in the end results, either. this is just how this all looks logically, to me. i'm not sure what mathematics they use to come to the idea that NINO/ENSO's warming led to 2024 - but perhaps it's something like 2023 + (2023 + NINO) = 2024 so 2025 is 2023 + (2023 + NINO) - (2024 + NINA) ...

European and British calculations figure with a cooling La Niña instead of last year's warming El Niño, 2025 is likely to be not quite as hot as 2024. They predict it will turn out to be the third-warmest. However, the first six days of January—despite frigid temperatures in the U.S. East—averaged slightly warmer and are the hottest start to a year yet, according to Copernicus data.

with air so dry and the sun angle still very low ... the 42 won't result in that much actual snow melt, so the pack will ... oh, wait

yes .. because it's a -epo load preceding that amplitude ... which, that's really wobbly where the trough axis really ends up. could easily back up relative to the flow.

the wind chokes that quality off though - seein' as it was my euphemism. ha. no but it's close though.

yet the love for -naos clings on

you know what is funny-ironic about this image here ... when thinking back a week at those eye-popping raging bizzard model runs that of course are not destined to materialize, that region of bare ground in new england is just about cookie-cutter the negative exposure of the 24" of snow those original model runs had. reality becomes opposite of the model forecasts really. outstanding -

yeah, so 12z runs are biting on this idea even more. that's the ultimate needle threader for now but obviously that doesn't mean much yet

i'm not just concerned with the infrastructural losses - btw - in my concerns. fire moves fast, particularly when it is flamed along by very strong winds... but, it is still possible to not have mounting death tolls. when the ominous nature of forecasts were amply leading - it just wasn't heeded, or enough. that's part of the repeating theme in these disasters but you know, didn't we just have a malibu oddity like this. similar latitude. different cause at the discrete level, but in principle? ...not really different. you had +pp n of a pressure well after antecedent dry anomalies over an extended period. interesting a smell an attribution paper. heh

yeah, i don't down play the severity, therefore rarety ...and the 'unavoidables' that come with that sort of occurrence. but i'm going to be sus about the regional 'maintenance' aspects until i hear otherwise, which is sort of intimated above here.

i'm 4.75 (close est) over here in Ayer, which the nashoba valley drains geographically into the m valley. ... not that terrain per se has anything to do with it. but i can confirm the dearth in the region.

for what it's worth ... https://phys.org/news/2025-01-earth-hottest-year-big-breached.html

ah yeeeah, you know me - i'm not one to shy away from cc attribution if it's sus in a situation but that? wrooooong! dude i recall big ice storms and 5" sleet bombs mixed with snow cake leveling grids down there since antiquity. in fact, you could argue more that NOT having more than 1 in the last 25 years is the signal - not the fact that one is occurring at all here. ..unless i'm missing something - oh, okay, maybe he's being snarky. hope so -

straight up "firestorm" though

Here's some linkage/resource material for above https://phys.org/news/2025-01-global-temperatures-critical-15c-milestone.html https://climate.copernicus.eu/global-climate-highlights?utm_source=pressrelease&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=gch24

You didn't ask me but what has me spooked for winter enthusiasm are these inferences, perhaps compounding one another: A: Yeah, the MJO desk is echoing those Weeklies - so it would seem. Whether they have seen them or not it is unclear if they are incorporating them into their present outlook philosophy - they defer to just a linear correlation to wave spacing "...• While below-normal temperatures are forecast across much of the central and eastern U.S. in the near-term, the strengthening MJO across the Indian Ocean historically favors a warm extratropical response over the U.S., and a pattern reversal toward warmer temperatures could begin toward the end of the month or in early February..." B: La Nina's are statistically correlated to warmer Februaries. This is "field-presumptive," admittedly. If anyone has qualitative information I will not take it as refutation - be my guest. And obviously, like all inference techniques ... the interpretation should be used in the spirit of "tendency" C: The last 10 years of eastern continental climatology has verified very usually, at times 'shockingly so' is not a poor adjective, warm excursions in February's. We're not talking the thaw times of lore, with one or two days into the upper 50s or low 60s and a continental snow line retreat exposing one or two eager Crockus shoots of lore. These events featured temperatures of June east of the Apps cordillera soaring past 75 reaching 80 between D.C. and PWM. They were historic setting numbers, of course, but what is of more importance to me is that it happened multiple years out of the past decade - regardless of ENSOs... And we may as well include the March 'heat bursts' that were of equal anomaly in this group. This to me should not be ignored. SO... (A + B + C ) / 3 = ? ...just summing the concepts and dividing for the mean, in this case, should be a red flag ( perhaps a pun there?) Having said all that. I'm not sure the MJO desk has their part of this quite right. I was looking over the temperature composites for the RMM, and they are pretty cold through phase 3 - which is still two weeks away - and it's not clear whether the wave will be robust in 4 from this far away in time. Maybe they have some early non-zero confidence for the temporal horizon. who knows.

is this a 'madoki nina' then ? the behavior of the sst ( which is just one metric among a few used to gauge enso vitality - i know..) seems more centrally based over the recent 10 or so days...while the whole thing is moving west. the eastern end of 3.4 and 1+2 are actually warming. this could be a function of intraseasona wind stressing biases. like a la nina low level wind burst that doesn't represent the whole season? not sure i've seen a negative 3.4 while it's warmer on either end too often. interesting. by the way, this enso appears better couple ( imho ) then other's over he last 15 or so years. it may be temporary who knows. just from what i can tell.

this is purely based on anecdotal history but i recall more numerous sa wind events back in the 1980s and 1990s. i don't personally recall as many observed through the last 20 years, actually. if there's validity to this latter aspect, that may atone for build up of fuels. enter an 'out of control forestry' lapses of responsibility, as i think Will mentions, and that creates a sort of compounding of the antecedent condition. if civility is gong to decide to live in a region with specific vulnerability traits ( particularly when knowing what those are after 200 years of observation ...), then the relevant prepping is an onus of the civility. the other aspect that kinda of irks me in this is that a sa wind event was an increasing confidence for occurrence over the week prior to the event. were there no safe-guards and/or pre-planning strategies, relative to this specific forecast/threat? this is long becoming a tired leitmotif, where these disasters could have at least had some percentage of their horror mitigated by planning. something, anything other than indolence or indifference - whatever the cause was for inaction. and most importantly, actual implementation of strategy in a timely fashion. i get it that a fast moving curtain of bible fire is not going to be preventable - but between fire proofing technologies, and wildfire fuel management ( probably negligence spanning generations...), the priorities of the civility were clearly elsewhere spanning many decades. it is really a societal scaled faulting and lapse of ownership and responsibility. are we too affluent as a civility over here, and don't value our shit enough - and figure we'll just buy the future all over again? i guess that's one way to live -

okay i see... follow up on the above. the euro actually has a barely discernible road-kill wave smearing it's guts through the compressed field along the ec... it's conserved just enough mechanics with that to create a minoring wave and a burst of snow. it has a much more potent s/w that is rotating around the nascent spv playing catch-up ... but that wave space has just about zero b-c to work on by then so it's basically a big bag of interference amid more nut sacrificial cold. thank god, right ? it wouldn't shock if there's nothing even there but a strong front but we'll see