Typhoon Tip

Thanks, Will ! ...i was looking things over and wondering oh no, what kind of damage control is it gonna take in here this morning... so, i was going to tell folks that the EPS (and GEPs both actually ) were not only fine for 170+ hours, but actually trended better, too - low and behold, we can always count on you lol yeah, i also want to add that the last 2 cycles of the operational guidance regressed on the western ridge amplitude. it's not even subtle. it's on the order 6 to 10 dem through the arc axis. quick example, set this recent 18z gfs next to the 00z gfs, and compare the ridge amplitude. bigger western ridge, more digging in the east. i don't know if that is going to all be the case, but something is neg interfering with the western heights at a larger scope/picture. it may be the the phase 5 mjo - tho it is not a pattern maker, it is a pattern modulator. so its contribution really shouldn't be ignored entirely. it can be overcome. this isn't the first rodeo with western heights not cooperating in the late mid range, either.

For what it’s probably not worth to anybody… the jma model was about to detonate a very intense northern stream bomb. the model just doesn’t quite go out far enough, but if you extrapolate this, that’s what you’re gonna end up with

ha... i was just telling prismshine ? i was just tell that poster that the gfs may yet surge the ridge - you know, it might help if i actually go look at the gfs run now, huh ..it a'ight .. that chart makes the point well enough

it's like the gfs is trying to predict the ayer ma gravity gyna wedge

i don't think it does 'completely' ... it may reduce and still play a role, too in fact, i'm still not entirely happy with the scaling of the western ridge as the d(mass field) doesn't appear to satisfy the +d(pna) forcing. that's code for it should be bigger. the ens means of the euro and to some extend the GEFs have been routinely better formed/fitting. the operational runs may yet surge that more... then, it's not impossible that the operational models be destined to a subsume phasing. that's when you have a southern wave - not necessarily the same as a subtropical jet born disturbance ...but just a wave s running underneath...; upstream ridge burst forces the n/stream to 'tuck' a powerful diving jet into the backs side of s system, and it's much more mechanically powerful wave by virtue of planetary aspects - it's like a black hole devouring a stellar object: the former eats the energy and becomes that much stronger. i love space metaphors ...haha. but in doing so, a monster is born and there's little to no trace of the original s wave left on the charts... just a deep low taking liberties writing there - i'm not saying this is a subsumer, but anytime i see a s wave eject and that upstream ridge surge forcing a n/stream to dive like that, that is precarioius

a trend that i mentioned to you a couple hours ago when describing the euro evolution. so we have both guidance heading toward committing on the 22n instead of the 20th... which preferentially in these index correction events, there is more typically going to be one restoring event... if the pattern reloads, that's when you get your repeating maintenance/sub-index scale type fun - but that's for later on if need be Euro: "the first is the lead wave more focused on the 20th is weaker by a factor of 2 (est)... it's smaller and less deep compared to the 00z per intervals as it runs out ahead. the second aspect that leaped out is the wave spacing between the 20th and the second opening up in the 12z compared to the 00z... bigger gap in other words if the lead (20th) continues to attenuate then as Will pointed out, there's less b-c escape which of course services the latter amplitude. "

it may normalize out into a cf ... but we have to be careful not to allow it ( ...because... we can do that, right ? ) to advect the moisture away. Will might recall but there were a series of storms in that 2000s modeling era that were always 'dry bombs' with a low anchored west, and the moisture and convective feed back low ripping the system open east... but as the systems neared in time, the the feedback low gave up to where the better deep layer instability and left entrance jet region closer to the coast. not exactly what is happening here but the euro sort of hinted similarly

well geez ...if we want to add base ball, that's been going on since ( ironically ) tom brady left.

eps = somewhat intriguing gefs = piece of shit geps = 974 mb on block island that oughta clear things up a bunch -

if all other excitement fails at least the eps has a tc moving into new orleans at d9.5

looks like the 12z eps is buckin' for a marginal mixy deal around the 14th ...weak, but 850's are 0c ish with a wave coming through in this mean edit, never mind ...this was my usual idiocy with dates working against me... it's in fact the zygote circulation for the 20th i was looking at...

to your point, i was comparing the 00z, 170 ish frames with the 12z and two notable difference pop right out. the first is the lead wave more focused on the 20th is weaker by a factor of 2 (est)... it's smaller and less deep compared to the 00z per intervals as it runs out ahead. the second aspect that leaped out is the wave spacing between the 20th and the second opening up in the 12z compared to the 00z... bigger gap in other words if the lead (20th) continues to attenuate then as Will pointed out, there's less b-c escape which of course services the latter amplitude. but honestly guys... this wave spacing shit started 2.5 days ago ( roughly...) and with no real trend to figure it out. or, maybe it just goes on to neg head oblivion wasted terrific pattern change into a storm mode.

i posted this in the other thread but i encourage those with real curiosity to have a look. the 00z eps evolution shows at least one plausible result where it ends up with better 500 mb phasing of these these two contentious wave spaces. i don't believe the gfs handling is very realistic - not a knock on the model at 180 hours ...no. but the lead wave is moving too fast in the flow.. if the x coordinate velocity exceeds the y field too much, bipass occurs. not sure the is wholesale right. i've noted in the past that the gfs has a velocity bias ( which is masked by a flow that is also that way ...making it difficult to parse out which is which...) the eps has a slower x coordinate velocity ( wave motion...), so it allows the waves to harmonize/coalesce near pa in that solution. the member mean being positioned over ne ny is prooobably more owing to lack of lower cold but details details

ggem's classic wave space negative interference. gfs looks unrealistic having both the way it conserves them

i was kind of hoping to convert the title of this thing to a 'monitor' status, so that the entire life cycle of inception to realization can be archived - obviously, it's less likely to promote to monitoring if a system doesn't meet with minimal play-ground political guidelines ...hahaha. no but we seldom get an a to zinc opportunity to catch the whole story. the pattern recognition patter is hugely successful/high confidence for being the case... but we both know that good patterns sometimes f-over regions, too.

for this audience ? apparently if there isn't an actual illustration on the physical charts, quite a bit actually -

this run continues with two important wave spaces embedded in the larger total hemispheric amplification scenario. it's tying for both's identity - the lead on the 20th, then this (abv) cuts off and does a rather unrealistic whatever by the 22nd... it's highly suspect to me. i'm waiting for the other shoe to fall on one or those being dominant still ... but hell, stranger things have happened

bizarre evolution on the 12z oper gfs... you can definitely see the speed surplus in the flow causing problems for if/how/when there could be any wave interaction.

oh i've mused a few times over the years how this social media depot is an open support group for those with weather modeling 'blue light' addiction issues

it's too bad folks don't channel a mental space where they see realistically plausible corrections. some can rely upon that visualization space, one that is constructed out of what can happen and what needs to happen to get it done ... it's like an "effective imagination," not just imagining and waiting. it seems like people have to actually see the object on the daily modeling cinema. it's not always the case ... some of the times there's stuff going on that is - I guess ... - just outside of capacitance to sense or detect it for those. and so this mood thing gets entirely controlled by the unknowable. man, that's a weird hell.

in spirit of Chubb's content above ... i'll have to find the article but university scientist have successfully created a nuclear powered, 'diamond battery' really fascinating. the gist of it is that they embedded carbon-14, a radioactive isotope of carbon, inside regular diamond crystal. the resulting stone emits an abundance of energy, with a half-life of 1,000 years! ..again, this is rough. i'll try to find it. and somehow, it is apparently radioactively safe. that's really ... how you power something like a "Data" from "Star Trek: The Next Generation" haha. or sophisticate and scaled it up from this primitive version ( being primitive because it's the first of its kind and so the applications are thus unexplored - ) this would be a game change for powering ev in general. imagine every city with it's own 1,000 year lived, diamond batteries in parallel i'm pretty harsh about humanity's innovation on this world, as being perhaps the most destructive natural disaster to have ever occurred ... aheh. and all that, but i've always maintained that we are in fact in a race - whether we realize it or not. one that is winnable, should heads disengage from asses in time to pick up the pace. see ... when we "sold our souls" to tech/ ir as a way of survival, we unwittingly committed to a race between the damage tech causes, vs innovated correcting tech - sort of ironic. but it is because the damage of the former doesn't have any natural means int he background planetary system that have evolved along with it as quickly as the damage of tech creates. so you have to correct it... or, survive and die by dice roll. mass extinctions, to what is known about the fragility of ecology, ...to paleo-geology uncovering that earth demonstrates no mercy and/or compunctions when shedding 90+% of all it's life because of terrestrial and non-terrestrial influences... all this doesn't lend to a fairly weight die if losing that race and hoping for the better -

yeah ...well, should that be the case, welcome to the 24th century and beyond I suppose -

ensembles coming around ... all three have more coherent emergence, choosing the 21st the gefs on the left - i like that the spread at this range isn't smearing west to buffalo the eps, middle - i don't like that the spread is nw the geps on the right - seems to be playing catch-up on this whole ordeal the 500 mb evolution of the 20-22nd suggests that there are deep solution potential resulting from all this. the individual/point members in the above depiction, notwithstanding... but the most impressive was the d(gp) between the 19th and 21st by the eps' 00z. there two nodes of vorticity that are implied in the evolution below; they in the process of rotating cyclonically relative to the total l/w evolution. whenever you see that, and then the right frame are the favored resulting coalescence ( very deep result ) that is typical of major events that are born of constructive interference ( ... this is obviously all still an evolving scenario ); the graphical mean above does not actually do below justice. this will be interesting in new run cycles.. one aspect that keeps sticking out to me is that there is a speed issue with the streams. particularly with the n/stream. any attempt to dig the n/stream is producing an usually strong gradient - this is effecting the efficiency of multiple aspects ranging from cyclogen stressing .. to how well the the phasing ( like the above implication by the eps ) can actually take place. there is a new, growing -epo signal that is occurring in temporal coincidence with the +d(pna) --> +pnap. i'm beginning to suspect this is why the western ridge has been middling in response to the +d(pna) forcing - there's some -interference implied by that. the -epo needs to precede/lapse into a +d(pna), not occur at the same time. i think the operational versions have been dealing with that all along, which may account of some of why their ridge responses don't look as good the ensemble means. there's probably going to be a system that results from all this but where and amplitude, cold vs warm ... ? the usual headaches

same page ... but i do consider the 'main' event to be a single deal. the thing is, it's like none of this happens in a vacuum of assistance from other factors, so dragging bczones and layin' in a crucial increment of colder air - i dunno. i'm getting a headache already lol

i mentioned this to Will a while ago ... i'm not more/less certain on either the 20/21st or the 22/23rd. i suspect when push comes to shove, we may may really be dealing with one event between the 19th and 23rd, but the moving parts are a combination of spread out all over kingdom come, or, don't even exist yet because they have to be synergistically produced in the future by result of interacting dynamics - an aspect in particular that offers certain challenges to modeling tech.