Typhoon Tip

It could all be bullshit anyway... You know, the NAO is supposed to be a part of all that - which in reality and wave transmittance means it's actually the pacific but we'll go with it. Anyway, the NAO's are often over sold at D7-10 ..so I'm not too put off by it all until I see that actually make it into D5 range.

So is the GFS ... at least in the 500 mb - not bothering to look that surface synoptics with any GFS solution, until it is perfect at 500 mb, because this model will at least excuse imagined ... shit stain the outlook unless you are parked under 700 dm Venetian ridge node - but this run opts for more of a broad trough as opposed to stem winding a vortex thru the nor'easter climo axis'

GGEM's trying to improve ... it's tryin'

It's been time for about 7 years ... just imho -

I hope you realize ( i'm sure you do.. ) that I'm just messin' with you

Here's the GFS's rendition ..

So according to Copernicus ERA5 data, May 2025 continues the incredible streak since 2023 of the world being under a veritable climate rotisserie lamp. As recently as May 9, 2025 ( last week...), that day came in as the hottest May 9th since 1940 - before which is beyond their historical event horizon so who knows. Yet, despite that warm soothing predicament, the Euro is doing this as near by in time as 132 hours from 00z: This has been going on for 20 something years ... whence yeeeah, we have above normal like everywhere else, but we are never AS above normal as everywhere else - apparently so. Plus this shit above. This above is yet another snow in May if it occurs. It counts. It's in our Meteorological neighborhood. It's yet another in these bizarre ( no doubt attribution -related some how, some way ) latter spring North America seasonal rollback patterns we've been observing. I've seen packing pellets and or actual snow events in ...shit, lost count how many Mays since 2000. In the decades prior ... almost never. Something about particularly the eastern continent/mid latitudes, is getting picked on in the total hemispheric circulation tendencies, as a cold dumpster. We'll see if above makes it through the deamplitude gauntlet at D5.. but just the fact that it's showing up in the model physics is confirmation enough. And Ineedsnow ... if you would please resist the urge to place a Like or 100% emoji in the bottom right corner of this post. It is not something that is intended to jerk off your obsession for demolishing summer, or to be celebrated because it leans in that direction. Something is wrong.

revenge? you may be 77 F today while we down here as nearby as rt 2 are just under the edge - in fact, I can see the clear sky along the n horizon. not even.. just below the tree line. but the sun is a dim ball, at times totally obscured overhead and sat confirms the predicament. if i were Kevin I'd be reporting this 'yet another day above guidance with sun' because of my committed razor sharp adherence to objective reality .. it's trying to be sort of mild. by strict numbers ... we may even be above normal relative to hour of the day. 59 here at 9:10am probably should be more like 54 at this time of year or something? i don't know if climate drills down to the hour that way though. might be an interesting project for an asperger case... but yesterday we bumped 73 ... not likely going that warm if we don't erode back.

gotta be honest ..wasn't spectin' a 73 F mainly sunny afternoon here. looked like a bd screen door slammin' flag snappin grunge off Labrador's nuts sack annoying set back. do we suspect at least some grunge tomorrow?

That's tied to acclimation just sayn' If you stick with them, after few days to week or two you're bio adapts

maybe we can snow on Memorial day for the latest official date of a butt boning ever -

man .. I don't know what the 12z runs are going to look like just yet rollin out here but those overnight operational runs doubled down on warm failure... particularly days 5 thru 11. OOgly! There was a day out there where there is an east flow anomaly along 40 N that extends from S of Nova Scotia clear to Denver... like, the whole hemisphere is raging in a cold summer canceling orgy

77 40 deg rise achieved

There's an underlying/not well realized forcing that is somehow by physical cause being suppressed in the operational runs. The -PNA, with an out-of-season EPO, along with a flat/and/or E limb NAO, are all demonstrative in the numerical values from all three major ensemble systems, EPS/GEFs/GEPs... Basically a -2 SD PNA, with nominal fluctions +/- wrt the other indices. Without any intervening forcing, that should layout out eastern N/A ridging. This numerical teleconnector spread/outlook has been in the cast for over a week's worth of daily mass-field computations. Yet these operational member versions just refuse to ever map a pattern in their respective mid and extended range charts that fully occupies what the spread description above says they should be... - this I am convinced is to enable Ineedsnow to torment Kevin, all the while ... he doesn't realize that in having all that numerical basis for heat, being suppressed by the operational versions ... is both highly unstable and probably just a matter of time before there's a ridge blossom. Or not... it is true that sometimes these telecons will divorce from the operational runs and vice versa. When that happens, given time they will tend to converge. The question is, do they converge into this year without a summer game interminably until we finally get hot for one week in early September? Or, do we suddenly explode hot.

They’ve been getting scientific attention, different means to describe amid the ambit but ‘heat burst’ and ‘synergistic heat events’ even ‘ heat bombs’ to name a few When they occur … realized temperatures will often exceed guidance/leading indicators some times by as much as 2 or even 3 standard deviations… The frequency of these has been increasing throughout the world over the last 2 decades. Im not sure if the heat up there straddling the borders is of synergistic nature … but it admittedly has that look.

6z runs still insisting rapid improvement west to east after noon. Looks like they time the last of spritzer sprinkles where you are, around 2 ... 11am western MA and CT. But all guidance have RH slipping < 50% at all standard ceiling sigma levels everywhere by 21z, which means lots of sun penetration at this time of year - no question. We're in the solar max, and 2pm the sun depth is actually still not far off its zenith. And I've seen 10 F temp responses at 4pm breakouts before - not sure the atmospheric wick is set for that. But some response would happen should the sky uncover. I've been surprised at this time of year, at just how fast recovery can happen in the past. Doubting the models and ended not right for having done so. You know the sun is that strong. If this circulation begins to shallow out at all, it will penetrate rather quickly. We'll see...

Outstanding in fairness ... Those of us middle aged know this cannot possible compare to those Aprils of the 1955 through about 2010 ... And the Mays of 2018 -2022 were peculiarly bad, too... I must amid, grudgingly, that this immediate last April was an over achiever

actually ... MET and MAV are up to 71+ at BDL and 68+ at ASH... I guess that's not too bad.

18z NAM salvages saturday after 12pm ... take it run man. Still selling -1.5 SD high temperature Sunday afternoon ... rather incongruous with the background behavior of always verifying warmer than guidance, because guidance is still modeling an atmosphere that predates the acceleration of GW so we'll see It may not be a "warm" day but I suspect the solar max roasting through a d-slope flow like that's going to go above machine numbers. Might be a nerd fest opportunity -

It's amusing how merely reporting what the models are indicating, somehow earns the reporter this emoji like it's their fault.

The weather pattern's been behaving like it's trying to set a precedence to completely fuck us out of summer... leaving us with no season of preference - almost like it were by design. heh

It's a winter storm ... no question about it. We're actually raining pretty good - I realize rad and circumstance changed since you posted this, but I'm just noting the overall baroclinic layout, and how the deep layer circulation is behaving. It's still winter when troughs are doing this crap -

Like the warm sector punched in ... yeah. It smells like spring now though - at least down here. We're 2/3 .. 3/4 leafed out. All have started but the sizes are small to mid. We need that 82/58 for three days with big sun to elephant ear.

That's kind of a weird look with Tuesday. 566 thickness/850mb T's to +13C, supporting 85F for a high, while buckin' for a coastal response going on near the Del Marva...? I'll tell yeah ...never seen a season so hell bent on stopping the arrival of summer

Operational models are rather divorced from the teleconnector spread though. I would trust them even less than the typical uncertainty, beyond D5 or so... maybe even D4 is where the separation begins. Particularly in the Euro, but none of them are very good complimentary in form.