Typhoon Tip

That is the SST correlation with the wind pattern stuff.. https://science2017.globalchange.gov/ ... corroborates as well, and discusses the atmospheric modal changes that have occurred in the past 30 years as part of this total response in the global hemisphere - Hadley Cell is an atmospheric eddy that girdles the tropics and subtropics around the planet...featuring ( in the means...) rising air near the Equatorial Monsoonal Trough zones and augmented by MJO ... etc..., polarward mass flux from convection deposition in the high troposphere, and downward ambient flow tendencies in the midst of subtropical ridges ... On the polar side of these ridges, the flow terminates to the westerlies band, the demarcates the interface between the Hadley Cell and the Ferrel Cell, which is the polar cell that orients at higher latitudes ( lower if talking about the southern H. ). The HC expansion is noted in the atmosphere - Refer to chapter 5: 5.2.1 Width of the Tropics and Global Circulation Not to laboriously reiterate but...the expansion of the HC is butting up against the lower Ferral Cell where cold hypsometric layout and compression resulting, is causing enhancing wind velocities as the balanced geostrophic response. In fairness, the article/content may not describe this latter wind response outright - and I have been clear this is my own hypothesis, but it is a damn good one! Regardless of refutation as to cause, the previous "stable" climate R-wave climatology is in peril during colder seasons, because wind speed in the wave mechanics is physically instructive regardless and we have had velocity and gradient saturation ...regardless of ENSO and other factors - it's become a base-state. ... Couple of plausible examples of altered R-wave climate: NAO blocking rarefied because blocking constructs are inherently more difficult to maintain in excessive X coordinate wind. Also, tending to fold the top latitude flow over mid latitudes, earlier in Autumn exaggerating early cold loading into Canada, as well as upon exit in springs. So, if we negate this shit in our seasonal outlooks and/or even modeling -based weekly forecast visions... good luck .

Would anyone happen to know where CDC is hiding the PNA/NAO/WPO/EPO product suite ? You go here, "https://psl.noaa.gov/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/ " And you are greeted with this, " Note: As of 23 September 2020, the Global Ensemble Forecast System has been upgraded to a much improved version 12, and this page is now obsolete. New reforecasts are available via Amazon Web Services for free download, at https://noaa-gefs-retrospective.s3.amazonaws.com/index.html, and you are directed there for data access...." But that link is an endless maze that frankly doesn't appear as though any engineering effort really had user accessibility in mind.. Am I simply overlooking - or... I am toying with the notion - either way - that this is just another example of bleed-over incompetence from the cultural influence of a kakistocratic government apparatus that swept in upon the election 2016, which began stripping institutions of wherewithal. Consequently, there are less professionals there that either care, or, know what the f* they are doing -

Drought was never an issue around New England

Snow in October

Couple aspects about SAR CoV-2 that I always think about ... One is, this business of a vaccine - .. hopefully the ballast of the population understands: A vaccine does not cure COVID-19? It only protects individuals, but ... that goes like 'a person is smart, but people are stupid.' It will prevent individuals from getting a particular strain of SAR CoV-2 ( mutation(s)), but society will always have those. The H1N1 outbreak that seemed to "origin" in the spring of 1918 (Kansas), is still with us today. The main arc of the 'outbreak' and uncontrolled horror of that was wrought did so spring of 1918 through to autumn of 1919 ( although I have read that by April of 1919 that was really when new cases become more a sporadic occurrence in smaller enclaves of cities). We are at month 9 give or take a couple of months on the front side, of COVID-19'r wrath - there's evidence like we've all heard that some ancestor of this thing may predate last mid-winter but that's ongoing ... Point being, we are roughly only half the the H1N1 pathogenic gestation. We have advantages that may shorten that time range - but there is a tendency for impatience ... which is utterly rooted faux expectation? What are people thinking there? But that "Spanish Flu" as it became to be known is the ancestral root of these Influenza A and B strains that modern tech perennially still has to modulate new vaccines for every year. It appears likely COVID-19 is destined to the same "population management," but not completely eradicated - it's pathogenicity isn't controllable in that sense. Which by virtue of having some form of control at all, I guess steps it down from crisis mode.. and people can stop wearing masks to run out to the store for f'um eggs. Two is the sociological aspect... Society did return to the previous dynamic ( norm) after the Spanish Flu. I keep hearing this 'dystopian vision' that sounds like headline incendiary rhetoric to me ... that things will 'never be the same same same same...' Bullshit! Since we all know that history is both a reasonable guide, and ... Humanity more typically than not ... will repeat it ... that does not tempt one to envision a future that is inherently responsible to any background risks left smoldering in the aftermath future off this thing. NO way.. when 'threat' falls below criticality ... humans lower fear through time, exposure and familiarity. They'll get back to living lives, at earliest INconvenience to do so... The Meh effect kicks in, almost out of necessity... - and 'managed' public health concerns fit into this backseating tendency. I mean that should just be expected - imho - quite intuitively and apriori -based. So, I am sure I share in this 'worldly' opinion like most with any modicum of introspection ... that are not immediately in"FLU"enced by either CNN or Fox News' wordsmithing headline demagoguery for profit.. that COVID-19 is always going to be there .. but a combination of a working vaccine and familiarity reduces fear and through that pathway society will do exacty what it's done before and 10 years from now this will have been absorbed into the annuls of other failed world-ending lore. I just personally cannot wait to take the leverage out of mass -media's profit zapping

I think high altitude smoke assisted this

"Sounds" like he was dancing with the Ozone/stratospheric correlation science - that which relates to sudden stratospheric warming. Smoke is not Ozone - but it does introduce a sub-micron down to molecular-scaled presence in the atmosphere; that may behave similarly. But that's the tip of the iceberg for that science. Slow moving at that. How its presence in the stratosphere relates to the PV ... I wanna say 1980s? But don't quote that... The solar cycle's relationship with that former Ozone circuitry: Solar mins deliver less UV part of the EM spectrum. That reduction lengthens the Ozone residency in the atmosphere - the impetus being ...UV wavelengths break down the Ozone molecular structures. UV cleanses the stratospheric Ozone in a sense.. A blank solar disk summers/autumns (which this is a solar Min summer btw -) preceding those winters, may result in increased Ozone mass ... That is important because Ozone is thermally conductive - So... terminating WAA events from planetary wave dispersal ...both at higher altitudes and latitudes ( that just means warm air arriving ..) infuses/delivers thermal energy into the ambient PV ( polar vortex ), where (then if) there happens to be a conductive efficiency in place, courtesy of a sleeping sun, viola! There is a warming that "suddenly" takes place... It is often accompanied by an immediately leading and/or concurrent U/Z-vector wind anomaly(s), which are probably the result of the arriving planetary wave mechanics showing up as a redistribution in the PV's structure.. But, if this thermal proficiency is not in place, these arriving warm pulses evaporate/disperse radiatively before the medium gas has a chance to absorb kinetically... So, if the mid and high warm pulse of air is present - and this is the part I am less clear on ... - it seems to defy conventional buoyancy arguments, and may begin to "downwell" ... This downward movement of the plume of warm air is crucial in the correlation to the AO ... I have spent hours actually cobbling posts festooned with annotations to demo this in the past... But, I bring it up because this downward motion of the warm plume is often misrepresented and or missed in the conceptual publications I see bandied about the enthusiast and even professional community - be it online, on television ..in science fiction noveling... you name it. People see a warm departure and they pull the SSW card and J. B. used to do this ... making me suspicious over whether he actually knew how the model worked... I can show you plenty of warm blobs in the data set that did not move downward - and guess what...there were no subsequent -AO observed above noise... etc.. But virtually all of those that downwelled, did and the AO made 2 to 3 week excursions negative when the plume descending to approximately the 100 to 200 mb sigma levels. What it does is ... stabilizes the ambient PV and that weakens the storm of it ( so to speak..) breaking down its circulation ... As that occurs, it radially expands S in latitude...and regions above the periphery than experience more DVM nodes and heights blossom --> blocking ensues...etc... -AO Then there has been many papered research efforts relating the QBO phases with that SSW tendency as well... Since the QBO is a fluid mechanical phenomenon, ...guess it doesn't take a huge intuitive leap to see how all that above might have a relationship if they are concurrently happening in the same planetary system - huh. There appears to be a west ( more blocking ) versus easterly phase ( less blocking )? I may have that backwards just off the top of my head... There may be a missing circuit that relates all these together into a seasonal tendency.. And also, in fairness ...this what I researched of this/these subject matter(s) as of 8 years ago - surely enough time to have evolved the understanding further. But, Ozone vs QBO .. both have veracious statistical correlations. Usually when covariance kicks in, I start suspecting there is an "invisible" real driver that relates the two - but who knows. It seems like per my own observation... -- a (QBO(E) + Solar Min) = higher likelihood of SSW -- a (QBO(W) + Solar Min) = reduced, but still elevated likelihood of SSW -- a (QBO(E) + Solar Max) = reducing more, but still elevated likelihood of SSW -- a (QBO(W) + Solar Max) = lowest chance for observing an SSW by "likelihood," means comparing against the longer term frequency - and if I have the E vs W backward, just switch those lol.. Lastly, I don't know what HM was really talking about...I'm just saying it smacks as related to much of this. I also want to point out ...there can be -AO winters that do not have SSW phenomenon observed. There can be +AO winters with a single SSW event and some 2-week period where the AO did fall...but may not have been negative - but the fall characterizes the influence of the former. The problem is, SSWs are just one component in driving total seasonal polar teleconnector/index behavior... It's like the NAO became - imho - overly assessed and popular in the 1990s and the SSW probably will have to go through that meme popularity curve too -

Correct! and to reiterate: "......There's still plenty of usefulness in looking for ( and ... hoping lol - ) -1 SD NAOs that bounce around... For the rip and read forecasting urgency: The virtue of really knowing why the NAO is neggie(posi-) in the means, may be less important than just knowing the NAO is in that mode/modality...." But I extend the notion that "IF" science or special insight ...or flash of insight or miraculously the woman of one's dreams finally returns ... can all point out the NAO's true force-origin, than deterministic forecasting would greatly benefit from that know-how. Imagine... ? Being able to say, " There is a 75% likelihood that the NAO will negative(positive) the third week of October, because of x-y-z in the Pacific transmitting a signal down stream" ?? Furthering yet ... because of wave mechanics, knowing the ridge up there is likely to position west or east based... But agreed, whether it is for responsibly intelligent daily operational efforts in forecasting, or increasing the potency of this social media's addiction to weather drama ... for either "virtuous" cause, taking note of the NAO has practical usefulness. I was not by extension of these philosophies really intending to abase the usefulness of the NAO - though of course ... the implication does bring it down off it's pedestal some. Sure. ( lol ) but no Hypothesis: I just think that the NAO, being inherently downstream of all events in a west to east momentum oriented planetary eddie, cannot really be primary in 'why' there is a snow storm in D.C. It may look that way at a superficial observation, because during or even leading, it is demonstrable on the weather chart, pulling attention to it.. But, the hypothesis presently is that those heights are really emergent from larger/longer scaled wave mechanics; perhaps some sort of lag harmonics from superposition aspects terminating downstream. You know, I've read literature about MJO/atmosphere around the Indian Ocean having lag correlation with the NAO, ...I may have seen it on television Science Channel program too. In both presentations the insight was under the auspices of "we don't know why" - ... I feel hugely confident to the point of averring an outright awareness, that is an example of a transmitted or transitive wave distribution. Adding to that... waves terminating at different rates are arriving from several sources, all the time. All of which constructively or destructively interfering ... And I caught your suggestion/point that ultimately everything is east of you on a rotating spheroid - but hmm.. Said sphere is not a homogenous surface? It has oceans and mountains .. and these differentially disrupt an otherwise "Neptunian" laminar flow. But Greenland is fixed, so it's impact on the atmosphere is fixed... and being a plateau that is some-odd .5 to 1 mile high, it presence formidably. I suspect there is a smaller-scaled yet significant analog ... similar to the atmospheric PNAP bulge that exists over western N/A. Such that as these lag harmonics pass over that geographical region, they get a positive feedback and are thus physically driven to express ridging.

Although I know what covariance means in a mathematical context - ... it seems I am failing to get a specific point across to folks: I don't believe there really is a scenario where/whence, " ...Aren't doing us a lot of favors...that's when a -NAO" ... NO, I believe in those scenarios it only appears that former aren't doing the favors... - it's exactly a scenario where it 'appears' the NAO is operating singularly and alone, disconnected... and I just personally don't believe that is really the case. The Pac/PNA/EPO or somehow loading wave kinematics transitively through the medium of N/A and as it then emerges in ridge(trough) expressions up there D-Str and the like ... viola! Looks like the NAO was emerging on its own. Can't make it any simpler than that... Doesn't have to be right ...but I believe it is... We see wave harmonics ( I'll point out - ) all the time cause nodes of constructive and destructive interference that don't come into phase until further down the line... The atmosphere can behave this way as it is a wave schematic. kinda fascinating...

But,... my point is, the negative(positive) NAO in the means, may ( and imho likely IS ..) actually transitively forced to be so based on the Pacific as a transitive (time lag) - it's just that those mechanisms are very subtle at times, ...obscuring and masking the root. Find those roots... we don't need the NAO metric -...because it falsely led the event anyway. The NAO is like looking through the dumpster's content to gather what happened at the party - the problem is...the party's over. Now, if the dumpster keeps filling with the same aftermath ( dumping latent heat into that region where the transitive height tendency is lurking ..., the two will manifest as a blocking mode - but is wrongly attributable as the cause. The lead was the Pac ) then it may have more usefulness in the sense of persistent patterning episodes. I know...it's a revolutionary thinking and who the f* am I, right? Can't say I blame you. I am but a poor boy with drum and a Bachelor's of Science in Meteorology... I am not exactly some kinda postDoctoral rockstar with early consideration for the Nobel Prize for contributions in the area of geophysics ... understood. ...There's still plenty of usefulness in looking for ( and ... hoping lol - ) -1 SD NAOs that bounce around... For the rip and read forecasting urgency: The virtue of really knowing why the NAO is neggie(posi-) in the means, may be less important than just knowing the NAO is in that mode/modality.. for shorter to mid range phenomenon. But a lot of effort and forehead thumb-raking goes on because of the domain's inherent variability overall - models throw up negative(positive) index modes at D6-10 far more whimsically than the EPO for example ( that variability alone sort of suggests its a fragile construct available to butterfly farts) - there is risk in using it. That said, there would be intrinsic value in predicting the NAO at extended leads... whether 6 days, 10 days, or seasonal notwithstanding... D6 is hard enough... D10? Already it's just a ... f'n fantastically stochastic heartache. It's that transitive aspect I was discussing ( I personally feel..) - it's like the whip-end of the unmanned fire hose. But extending this philosophy to even more headachy tortured extremes - if there is any merit/veracity to the "Pac really albeit insidiously hiding its forcing of these NAO variance" model ...it would be useful to physically demonstrate that causal circuitry, because then ...maybe we would have a chance to predict and set the table with that particular metric. Think of it this way, if some aspect of the various Pac mechanics can be closer to highly correlated lag response in the NAO... Than skip the NAO report and just rely on the source. I grow suspicious over decades of tortured vicissitudes of vagarious winds that the Pac is really controlling the NAO ..

Op ed ( not holier than thou): I disagree the problem with winters has been the NAO domain ... but, to each his own until forcibly proven otherwise in most cases - lol... Oh, it's not helping - sure. There are no one-size-fits-all mechanisms driving weather pattern modes - duh. But, as I have outlined ...to the point of ad nauseam ... there are a larger evidenced systemic morphologies ( I am not averiring some personal opine on the matter! ) taking place in the mass balancing at a hemispheric scope and scale - not sure what the dimensional cost is, but it appears they are order of magnitude ( possibly..) more influential. These are planetary scope and scale, actually. And [ blah blah blah ad nauseam here ] reasons, it is causing balanced, geostrophic wind saturation and that is disrupting the previous, underpinning pattern mechanisms ( most born between 1900 and 1990 are more accustomed to) - this is manifesting in numerous ways from Asia and the Indian Ocean to the Americas all the way around the NH winters. The NAO ... ? yeah, it's part of that dizzying array of moving components... but less. Nah, the primary loading pattern for cold into N/A is the EPO and always has been. As a separate concern: The last 20 years has gradually observed a baseline velocity increase ( wind flux mid and upper troposphere), which is stretching/stressing R-wave distribution ... At some point, stretch enough ... the system my "click" into the next 'gearbox cog orientation' ... But, sparing adding that hypothetical popsicle headache to an already mind numbing thumb-swiping missive... the NAO "back drills" as loading pattern, ....as an anomalous scenario from blocking, which if one spatially imagines... blocking gets harder to do with increased wind fields.. as a gestalt if not discretely provable notion. yoo hoo ... We have blocking times, but they are over geographical regions where blocking is more robustly constructed(able) when the surrounding medium is doing so, and the NAO is not one of those. Like, Siberia to the Alaskan sector. ( Just at an orbital conceptual level, by logical convention and definition of literature combined, 'anomalous' means rarified, and rarified means ... not the primary for the purposes of present context. ) And that has to be so; conceptually proven objectively and scientifically from empirical data and math ... retrograde behavior is less common than the west to east motion of jets fields and their embedded wave mechanics propagate within the general eddy momentum. It almost seems silly when really, spiritually coming to grips with that truism, how bought into the NAO 'holy grail' the 1990s popularization seemed to become. The NAO has a contribution in modulating the temperature and to some degree precipitation distribution, which is to say ... > than no effect. Not sure that justifies - assuming this op ed has any truth to it - blaming winters on that factor. ...obviously, there is a glibness about the 'bus stop' internet social media - there's that too... Even Heather Archembault's famous statistical study cited that the PNA had greater statistical confidence interval as a precipitation modulator over eastern N/A... The NAOs were perhaps conditionally correlative... I believe her conclusion offered hypothesis that it was the transition of modes in the NAO. But, I personally think even that is misleading as a leading cause, because those modality (modal inflection points) are driven by the PNA when time-lags are applied; as R-wave commands downstream, the terminating wave signatures will transitively distribute height nodes into that region ( NAO domain space) ..where/whence there ... underlying geophysical feedback augments ridge structures over that region of eastern Canada's eastern archipelago and Greenlands 5000 feet of elevation and so forth, when the transitive tendency arrives. Because this feedback materializes in situ, that casts a kind of immediate impression that the ridge node up there must have formulated in isolation ...but it may not really be the case. The NAO became over-assessing IMHO - old habits and traditions die violently and vitriolically ...

I've often thought that altho that early Dec snow last year was within the Met designation of winter that doesn't mean much ... It still to me appeared to really be a part of an autumnal hemispheric setting ...and fitting in with the recent decadal propensity to fold the heights over western Canada ... which tends(ing) to deliver early cold snaps ..etc... A factor that may also be hidden because it is couched in modestly > normal monthly means ..Or not. Octobers and Novembers may actually have been closer to normal or approaching so ...while hosting nested cold incursions that plumb departures some -6 to -12, ....enough so to even snow or be supportive of snow, but rolling out in comparatively briefer time spans - such that by arithmetic weighting, the +3, 10 days intervening "hides" them in the averages..etc.. I feel pretty strongly about that early Dec event as being part of that. I was in careful observance of the southern tier height compression around the time and moving past ( the weeks) of that event; the hypsometric gradient grew steeper over the ambience, as well .. the isohypsotic counts rose by 3 to 6 gradient lines by mid month, and never 'decompressed' until July frankly... kidding a little. Within 10 days or so after that early month slow roller quasi-cut-off last December, that spit out a coastal wave for 9-12", then came through with a mid level snowball to double-dutch us for a total 30 hour stint ... things changed. Commercial air traffic began reporting the unusual ground-based velocities along .. concurrent with the arrival of that apparent gradient compression. And whether it can be proven geo-physically connected or not, it's hard to ignore that the winter sucked as those observations came about. It went on to be a distracted mess of busted ravioli systems and sheared out messes...Or at best, modeling bombs that were always correcting 1000(s) of KM(s) east of original projections when at D7-10 leads ( when/where ensemble signals first began to emerge; the Euro always had Del Marva genesis' ending up flatter or up near NF by D3...etc.. something like that..). I think it is important, but the the thematic arc of winters the past 10 years ( and really ... vestiges of this going back to 2000 ) seems to be more than ephemeral ... showing enough sample size to move the climate in insidious ways. For example, we think of climate in terms of average temperature, #'s of sunny vs cloudy days, precipitation ...wind. Aspect the really are more 'sensible' ... But, any geophysical variable that is an emergent result of the atmospheric machinery can be metrically analyzed. Like, 'geopotential gradient' - there probably is normalized/averaged climate values of these lesser known/esoteric aspects, but it is in that obscure realm where climate changes seems to be more colorful. But, if the 'theme' of winters is changing, and seeing these physical observations to back that .. probably should ignore the possibility that whatever forcing is causing that climate modality, might also do the same for this winters hemisphere.

Suppositionally - yes.. The NAO could be "transitively" influenced... What we know: The HC is expanded(ing) ... as I've outlined before and it can be found here: https://science2017.globalchange.gov/ ... note, this publication may be getting onwards to a couple years old, so it may be mirrored and or sophisticated further by follow-up efforts that I am less than aware of - will leave that to the reader research using the "stellar trustworth WWW" that the "intrinsically ethical nature of man" hasn't by any means corrupted -ha.. Anyway, right off the bat .. conceptually, 'what in hades does the Hadley Cell have to do with the NAO, considering the latter domain space is N of the Hadley..?' Directly? nothing... Indirectly? perhaps - The expanding HC causing higher winds in the westerlies ( because there's more in situ gradients between 30N and 70 N in the general hemisphere...), would tend to augment the rest state PNAP structure... Which returning to 101 Synoptics, that features a modest ridge over the terrain of western N/A and a coupled, modest trough down stream over the east. This has to do with forced topographical ascent, turning right by Coriolis ... .and that causes UVM and ridging to evolve... Naturally, if we enhance the westerlies...it is conceptually acceptable to assume these orientations would also be augmented. So, we have a slightly exaggerated ridge it the west, ... coupling wave/balancing we have increasing trough tendencies in the east... Down streams of troughs... we have the transitive higher height response ... and that ignites the -NAO ... But this gets complicated/washed out, as the season grows deeper into winter, and said gradient gets rather extreme... It's like we sinusoidally go the other way with so much maelstrom and high velocity, the balancing locks into the next sign - viola! +PNA winters... with very high velocities situates the NAO blocks east or zonal... tending to reduce the west-based variant. Not all the time... no. but as a base line...? mmm

Part of all that ? ... we need bigger sample sizes...sure. However, this is a bit different than a 'black-box' series of values coming out of a system we no nothing about, and then having to assess the significance of a series of aberrant values. We see other systemic morphology lending to causality. Such as speedier flows in increased hypsometric gradients between 35 N and 70 N in winters... As well, taller hypsometric ridge altitudes in summer... These are happening concurrently more so, with the advent or increasing frequency of snow in early and late. That sort of begs a causal link there, ...certainly suspicion. It's also counter-intuitive because higher heights should mean warmth...but, the increased wind is causing the flow to tip S over Canada early and late... due to the continental atmospheric bulge being enhanced in the rest-state PNAP. ... Anyway, it helps reduce the uncertainty of randomness when a driving mechanism can be identified - even though there's still supposition and theoretical debate there too. ugh - I just mean there's really no such thing as seasons ... not really. These are human conventions ... it's what we do as engineering, math-solving and language orchestrating artistic species, we fancifully create 'boundaries' and domain spaces out of reality. But reality is really more like cloud technology in a sense...

It'd be one way ..but unfortunately, not really what I was after Lol. I sense the focus there is because the word snow was inciting ? I wouldn't go so far as to characterize "...winters in the North will just be getting longer" Firstly the plural use of 'winters' sort of suggest a 'permanency' ... I am not intending to extend winter. You were responding to a paraphrased version of an early post, which lacking context may have sounded a certain way perhaps. Just making empirically based discussion points: We have in fact observed more snow(snow supportive atmospheres) in Octobers and April ( even May ) over the last 20 years, than %-relatively combining the previous 50 years. I was discussing climate - I'm not sure how one would logically tool an interpretation of 'winter as a season.' Having said that... I don't think winter as a season is being necessarily extended, no, now that the idea is floated - What I originally intimated: the transition seasons are being marred by cold interruptions that are offsetting an otherwise warmer than normal trend, but provided a canvas for plausible-why that is taking place. But these cold offset by virtue of happening in an above normal rest state, are making for very dramatic variances. I am not sure in an objective sense that means "winter" per se, as much as just means a new transition season behavior that's emerged in the last 20 .. particularly 10 years. The philosophy over human conventionality vs what is real in Nature comes to mind. As the ends of season blur those temporal conventions by patterns and sensible impact... it exposes the faux conceit in calling summer summer and fall, fall, and winter winter...when the boundaries are often seamless... I think of 70F Octobers with two packing pellet virga cu cold snaps fitted squarely into a categorization of no category - Lol...

Lol - nah don't fret ... 2015's can still happen - just not so predictable... I mean that whole ordeal back during that fateful February was actually even intraseasonal in temporal scale .. The whole season wasn't really terribly below normal in temperature... And as far as snow, I remember remarking in snark back then that for a lot of cases, if it did not snow a single flake for three consecutive years immediately going forward ( which wasn't the case, just sayn' ), than those locales would in fact only be normal snow for the 5 year climate sojourn - Anyway, ... I'm just saying in would not surprise me to see similar playout... some odd cold snaps early and late, with plausible snow chances ...with an extended period or something related to gradient/velocity surpluses doing weird things in DJF proper .. It would be keeping with both trend over recent years/decades, as well as actually fit other empirical based reasons - But we'll see... It's going to get colder as the daylight gets dimmer -

So based on all that ... If one were to forecast normal temperatures for October and November, ...obscuring and hiding the fact that there were a couple of cold and snow anomalies ... just because interceding air masses were dry and hot, ... Wouldn't shock me. Yup...totally "normal" October and November - just look at the 2 month totals/N-terms - nothing to see here. Nothing out of the ordinary... Hiding climate change ...Then, followed by a velocity stolen winter that claws and scrapes to snow averages in between ice events that fall short of warning by virtue of the fact that they can't hang around longer than 6 hours before their structures are smeared and sheared and blown open halfway to England ...Then, we even exceed "seasonal" totals because of May blue bomb on Memorial day in an apr/may combo that is -6 from norms due to the same folding afflicting springs - Obviously there's some sarcasm to this ..but... early and late cool snaps with snow out of calendar climo with an iffy mid winter gradient problem .... too repeating across both NINO/NINA/NADA ... and varying solar cycles... for me to assume these latter as primary in seasonal outlook philosophy. The empirical results can be explained by early hypothesis/relationship to changes that are already being actually measured and papered re climate change ...

Starting to see the 'continental folding' effect beginning to emerge more and more in guidance. What I mean by that is a large, hemispheric -scale Kelvin-Hem. wave effect from huge velocities ripping the mid latitudes and folding over the ridge over western N/A. In fact, this early cool pop over the next 36 to 48 hours is really part of that, and in my mind is integral in the same propensity ... increasingly more commonplace since ~ 2000 ... lending snow in Octobers and Novembers with increasing frequency. These are exaggerated shots across the bow ladies and girls - I suspect this is contributing to why we are observing unusually large temperature gradients either side of the mean polar jet, as was in part recently demoed over the eastern front range of the Rockies, in part exaggerated/augmented by elevation/mountain upslope effects. With +16 to even +20 C synoptic -scaled 850 mb thermal ridges ridging within 200 km of -2 to +3 C early season anomalies... Doing so at all is not hugely unusual; doing so relative to September climate is definitely not normal. The Denver 90s to 30s in 24 hours in snow, to these present modeled cinemas of 20C ( GGEM ) over Michigan not three or four days after being -2 C, over that area... these are fantastic roll-out events.. But, I don't think it is just this season. I think these sort of occurrences are part of the morphology of the large circulation eddy associated with climate change. Fast velocity has plagued even the summers - just not as readily observable ( more subtle ..). But all this is/has unusually registered/able R-wave coherency ... and that has been happening in summers since really the super Nino of 1998 ... however much or less notwithstanding. This coherency has lent to early season, western North America exaggerated +PNAP flow constructs, which in turn is why we have seen a frequency up tick in early cold intrusion events in Octobers and Novembers. This is at the transition where just the hemisphere is cooling ... yet several weeks prior to when the deeper gradient saturation of winter settles/compresses the flow; which triggers the "real" pattern emergence for that winter. But, I have noticed that we have had a lot of +PNAP high velocity pattern biases. We dont' seem to really deviate much from that - remove the 2015 anomaly from the data set since 2010, most of these winters in a fairly "smoothed" objective sense have not really deviated their patterns too tremendously obvious. It would all account for opportunity windows for strange cold incursions in the autumns, that would in fact roll out and swing wildly back mild ... due the expanded HC. "Packing pellet" virga CU October cold snaps followed by 70s has happened too often since 20 spanning 20 years...some half the seasons. It's anecdotal to add the following, but ...in the previous 30 years of my life, if I saw a grapple pellet in October ( May for the matter) it was arresting. Now ... it's like when is it not. That's enough to trigger acclimation and expectancy .. usually, that's climate impacting at a personal level when that more human response to change can be noted.

One thing I did think was interesting about LA was the geology.... They have these cragged topography jutting out around the perimeter of the San Fer. Valley floor, which can look similar really to some of the juts around here... But hiking up trails where you slide partially backward in loose fragmented rubble ... the rock faces along side were physically peculiar. The surfaces look like solid stone but one can literally scoop a fist full of it without breaking a nail. I later learned it's called 'decomposed granite' ... it's like that because of eons of rattling by geologic seismic energy... along with erosive weathering from all the falsey anticipated El Nino winter forecast bluster .. heh. And then you look around up the hill at angles ... there are platformed homes built mid way up higher elevations - huh. One wonders how they are footed/anchored.. California is a powderkeg for natural disasters as we all know but hiking those hills that skirt the valley and learning about decomposed this and San Andreas fault that, and then touring the Getty Museum ... fantastic views, really. The facility is perched a mile or so elevation above the Valley floor and over looks LA skyline from the far side ...and you can see this caste orientation of honeycomb neighborhoods packing the floor, said mid elevation luxuries, yet higher above these ...palatial older money estates lord from mountain tops. It's got this like built in conceit that is only tangible from that sort of Holden Caulfield-esque perspective - an exposed fragility. First hand, it was an interesting tourism experience for me back in aught '03... Hey, I got to see a test screening for one of those earlier Harry Potter's .. second movie I think it was. But I came away with a sense that it may be fun to visit, but wouldn't want to live there. There's to much of an elitism overarching the "serfs of the valley floor" vibe about it all. Creative writing: I call it ethos-narcissism, where the region itself thinks it is a movie star - and it's genetics is just as vapid and undeservingly idolized to me as hollow celebrity worship really is. And you have to toe-the-line of your echelon and feed those above you to fulfill their cravings for your envy.

I wonder if any baby that was the 'honorary guest' of one of these beef-wit's quasi-narcissism events, where the parents impose self love on their unborn baby in the form of a reveal party ( oh my god, my baby's pussy or schmenze ! ) ...will grown up in painful secrecy coveting the information that it was in fact their pussy or chicken-toe that was the impetus for millions of acres consumed, dozens of deaths ... and indeterminate carbon fluxing into an atmosphere/environment already reeling from cumulative generations of Industrial farts - 'Magine that dude or chick... "See what my pussy is worth! "

May help if we stop using words like 'exact' at/for locations that are below the synoptic, probably more like super-synoptic scale, when in context of seasonal speculation. Assuming for the moment that you are just using common figures of speech with these turn of phrases, even so neither is within the purview of capacity or any skill to predict therein/from ... not even close. Seasonal forecasting is done at continental scopes and scales, where therein we may break down into smaller quadratures - such as, the SW, the NW, the Northern Plains, the S ... SE, the Great Lakes, OV, MA and NE regions, although we could argue the these latter four could be grouped together. We say these regions will average arid, wet, cool, or warmer, respective of their longer termed climate normals ( usually at minimum a 30-year mean .. but often extending to 120 and so forth ). Then there is a subjective vs objective 'grading' of the seasonal forecast - whole 'nother head game. If a seasonal forecast 'suggests' dry and warm (say) in New England, that just means that at some point(s) along the way ... whether persistently albeit modestly warm bias, or, a few shorter duration hot spells interceded by cool backs ( where an when we can have epic blizzards mind you!)... then the winter forecast will verify similarly in either scenario - but the former gets the genius tag because the latter had those three crucial and fairness obscuring idiosyncratic fight starter storms... ha. I see that a lot though. Some enthusiast waiting in their silent observation, comes in and says ... 'so let me get this straight, your saying my backyard' ... No seasonal forecast can do that. The best you can do is look at seasonal forecast for warmer(cooler) and wet(drier) interchangeably as they may be, and roll the dice and figure that if the forecast has any substantive value, 'I may experience days warmer(cooler) and wet(drier) some > 50% of the days'.

It’s an early signaler but I suspect we run into gradient saturation and similar neggie interference patterning as it gets deeper .., Quickstart —> stalls and may be a late push ... been recurring theme

They're underrated ... Most people think of "Colorado Low" model transits through the heartland .. .Or straight up southern stream lows/QPF messes that run up and over a cold dome ...always special... Or S/stream waves that 'get captured' and phase - but that's/those are rare and getting rarer in a fast hemisphere anomaly that's become decadal or longer as a climate bias ...etc. But I'll take a potent 42 unit v-max cutting across S NJ with a concurrent upstream PNAP in progress any day. And that's the extreme version ... you don't even have to have that perfect a set up ...even flat waves with strong jet maxes can NJ Model the hell out of a nuke ... Dec 2005 is a superb example.

lol -

It's a hypothesis... but one that I think is growing in 'weight' - to use your term there, because the emerging observation pool of data supports it. Again, the last notable ENSO anomalies have been presenting less impacts around the world's climate impact known regions. And, I admit to some conceit in that I formulated this notion...of attenuating ENSO in GW years prior to observing these observations emerge - and it is tougher to ignore one's own idea when the environment starts bolting the scaffolding of the theoretics together - that's called the scientific process: formulate foresight; experimentation; data either supports or refutes said foresight... In this case, a super nino with comparatively blase planetary effects/affects was papered and refereed ...etc.. I think the crucial value of ENSO as a predictive tool was more important back prior to the expansion of the HC ...notable and discussed here ( note: CH 5 ): https://science2017.globalchange.gov/ If one absorbs that information and balances it across the last 20 years of existential atmospheric awareness ... I think they can sense a correlation .. mm hm.