Typhoon Tip

You know what this going to look like in the wee hour of Sunday morning on radar? Snow ... Yup. That's because the melt line aloft is going to be so close to the same elevation of the rad signal the reflectivity will still be smooth. Anyway, I'm impressed with the rapidity the switch (appears to) finally flips this next week. Monday probably murks out but Tuesday is the transition day. Wednesday looks like about 82 in full sun to me. OH I'm sure the MOS argues against as usual... But it could be borderline 'hot' on Thursday before (IF) we back door for a day and half. Typical for early heat around here... We get a day ..then it's interrupted while the Labrador current charges taxes on the synoptics, then once we've paid the bill it turns the lights back on - ...meanwhile, PHL gets it's power entirely comped

i hope it snows... not because of snow, itself, but just so the Euro can then verify it's 87/64 it has for CON 3 days later

it left emotional wounds - period

... it's credible now (imo); I needed that inside of D5, but honestly, that N-stream dump into the backside of the coastal mechanics has been in all the guidance persistently; its an insert of cold air that I have been wondering about. didn't wanna bring it up until we wheel-housed it -

Now that the Euro is inside of D5 on the coastal low, man... that is sooooo close to being something special there in the form of out-of-season shenanigans. Real close. I suspect it probably does fall just shy though, much to our amazement loss.

Not comparable in the remotest sense... I can't speak for Brian up north but down here SNE it's laughable that anyone would even jest that comparison - 15 MPH, sustained, gusting to 45 every day from the NE, with temps never ranging lower than 39 and higher than 45 for 10 straight days, with no sun - ever! It's 'fake news' and 'alternative facts' trying mash up then and now as the same ... apples and orange. so hopefully no dipschit's trying to do that - Sorry, I just find that insultingly disrespectful to those who actually suffered 2005. ah hahahaha

You didn't ask but ... I suspect the GFS is in flux catching up with the Euro's idea of a significant pattern flip there... I bet we see more robust eastern ridging and warm-up emerge in future runs (with the inevitable cycle where it tries to go all the way back just so people can donkey hee-haw posts out knee slap reactionary style) ... Could be wrong and I don't boost confidence in saying that; more like it would not surprise me if -

Ha ha.. To say nothing of the fact that Kevin is like here * ....then, waaaaay over here * is the next guy most guilty of hyperbole on weather related social mediate

Yeah... those variations are within the "giga" motion noise, tho, that happens from run cycle to run cycle, ...always endemic to modeling a system that has a pretty strong component of quasi fractal behavior. In easier terms, they're not significant. Imho, the aspect that leaps out (or should) more obviously, is a signal prevalent across several runs-worth depicting eastern height rises in the 2nd half of the month. And the EPS has it, too... So I think what we're left with as of now: we have a low to midland coastal low - big deal. It's out of here in a day ..day and half, and then the pattern may very well be off to a new paradigm - a warmer one at that - by perhaps even before the 20th the way things look now. It could be wrong - sure...

It's not one run - I made that point, specifically ... "...Actually, 3 of the 5 showed a -PNAP plausibility erupting..." Plus, it depends which ensemble mean: the GEFs blend (to me) looked like it was also about 6 to 12 hours faster with the total evolution/appeal of stalling that coastal system. It's also weaker than the Euro cluster... So, meh - that's a toss-up for me... these are clear enough but for some reason there is selective eliding of observable characteristics going on - it does make one want to wonder why people do that -

Sometimes I wonder if there's a kind of 'reverse psychology' game people fiddle with in here really - when what they really want is for the weather to be gloomy. Firstly, over the years (certainly since Eastern defunct and the exodus of users ended up here...) the intents and purposes of this social media outlet have morphed from being a source for behind the scenes operational and/or theoretic Meteorological insight... to one that is a receptacle for how weather, or more importantly the prospect of certain weather types, affects one's mood. I'd even extend that some and say that it's down right therapeutic and/or enabling in some ways... Not saying it's right or wrong. But, if one goes out of their way to "speak the dialogue" of the science, and keep it strictly that way, there's a reason why it tends to either be ignored, or doesn't foster the same frequency/enthusiasm in replies if at all. Anyway, for some, cool and wet hard-ons this weekend are being hidden behind a barrage of '..Boy I hope the expected warm up doesn't turn out to be like the D9 coastal in the winter' - yeah, okay, that's how you really feel. But, thankfully, the latest trends are to move that along so you won't have to "suffer" that long. Ha... just bustin' balls but seriously - this weekend's coastal in the 00z guidance looks to be about half the residence time spent in the area, compared to what how it was modeled to evolve in those ultra slow mover ideas yesterday. It's still a solid 18 to 24 hours and smack dab centered on midriff of the weekend and is poor timing, understood. However, it moves along as is gone by late Sunday - or ending... But, see ...and this is why the ribbing above sort of strike me as having some truth to it... Why wasn't there as much enthusiasm for the Euro's blatant and demonstrative pattern change that was gleaming off the 00z runs? It wasn't like that was the first run that did something similar ...spanning that last 5 cycles... Actually, 3 of the 5 showed a -PNAP plausibility erupting. So it's not unprecedented... I guess no one either wants or cares for that huh -

Yeah... Will I see what you mean about the more dynamic nature versus lower level gradient evolution with our present ere coastal. It's also one reason why I caution that intensity. I was discussing that with Ryan the other day, that the models tend to over focus on the mid levels at this time of year, showing deeper surface responses in a challenged ambient baroclinic state. I think 1977 toted some cold down with it at least into the 850 mb levels - I recall looking up those charts once. It's just that I've seen countless 'big April bombs' in the past that ended up being weak surface expressions with a lot of cold pool garbage come time to verify. It'll be interesting to see what this one can muster...

What strikes me as remarkable about that synoptic evolution (as it is implied by the single frame...) is that the counter-point geopotential positive anomalies in the west are an anchored ridge exceeding 590 heights at the core ...more importantly, pooling off thickness well over 570 dm over a vast area of the SW. 850 mb are 20 to 30C ! That chart's set up exceeds the "normal" + PNAP couplet variance by probably a solid 20 decameters, which is sort of a secondary (delta) ...where the gradient is excessive. That's fascinating. Also, ...interestingly, excessive gradient plagued much our winter (to the extent of detriment), yet here we are with a cold unrelenting attack on New England... Maybe there's some kind of physical connection here (forcing) on hemispheric scales.

yeah ...and another thing ... we should remember that sometimes these pattern changes can be "rushed in" ? ..so to speak - They may very well be valid, and pan out in one way shape form or another but, the models seem to latch onto background physical processes in the system and bring those to bear too quickly - they'll be right about the transition but it takes place later on. there's that too -

Only the Euro could do this ... Raise heights for 24 consecutive hours while crappening the weather the whole way - wow. Man, this spring is just got a f'n x on it's back

I like how between 168 and 192 hours, the vortex axis or rotation moves 0 latitude and longitude ...while simultaneously the ridge axis that starts out over the G. Lakes move E to roughly NYS... It pulls that off by filling the vortex rather than moving it away. Talks about hell-bent to keep conditions specifically schitty - it's found a way to do so without violating the principles of Atmospheric physics - haha.

Yeah the idea of coastal system affecting the weekend is gathering confidence... Multiple operational and ensemble member therein are supportive with the western end of the negative height anomaly first bifurcating to the N of the GL, then descending toward upper M/A.. classic multi-day behavior under westerly NAO blocking actually ... That Euro is certainly the most entertaining ...being unwilling to completely shut the book on winter suggestion (again..) - seemed to get away from that (at last) for a couple days, now comes back with it. Possible - can we get a synoptic snow later than 1977. Stay tuned! Otherwise, the theme for the week has changed imo... Thursday and Friday (light winds away from the coast + low deep layer RH + 850 mb temperatures above 0 C) = 65 to 72 F regardless of machine numbers - which tend to come in dimmed over reality in that sort of synoptic set up... Pretty clear difference compared to the 10 day stint scenario that was feared. Then the coastal ...after which ..I could see things going warmer, but I don't know where "massive" came in... plus, the subjectivity of that term is useless, too. Firstly, the idea of the pattern changing ~ the 20th is still in tact. The impetus there is "approximately" ... This 'art' of distant forecasting has never been about sticking with an exact dates anyway - that's always been, going back years of social weather-related media, an utter base-less invention/requirement by those looking from the outside, into the realm of what it takes to construct these outlooks, who don't have a f'n clue and therefore shouldn't even be around the establishment of standards ... Secondly, it's plausible it's all moot anyway...? If Friday gets to 72, what's left in that discussion anyway?

What are you looking over that goes out to the 20th ? You responded to a comment I made about 7 days from now - the 20th is 12 days away; half of month for all intents - I was referring to that.

wrong -

subtle point of contention but .. it'll be interesting (for me) to see how this 12z Euro run charts out .. the last couple of cycles of the Euro really want to herald the end of the cold plague by D6..7 or so. the entire circulation medium breaks toward bulging eastern rising heights.. yet the GFS wants no part of it. in fact this 12z run has the worst of the cold now centered at 170 or so hours, with a deep trough anomaly still pinned in place.

this is in all a very typical behavior for troughs that end up pinned beneath west-based NAOs... they get "squished" and elongate... bifurcating into smaller nodes... the western one then subsumes a pacific S/W/ passing underneath and viola! ...coastal. yeah, i've seen nor'easters during every month of the year...it's just at matter of going from 1008 mb to 989 in 12 hours, which is technically like bombogen rates...doing so with comparatively weaker dynamics/sickly mid spring baroclinic normalization - okay... we'll see

oh i think it's likely evolve but that 12z oper. ...i'm just wondering if that tendency to over-evolve trough over the east isn't rearing it's head here.

huge mass discontinuity on this 12z run... After a coastal the whole conus steeps in late spring/early summer type heat. I also thing that there's fair chance that coastal is overdone -

according to various ptype sources there must be cat-paws and grapple dappled upon the terrain of upstate NY ...if not fatties thrown in there... --------------------------- I was looking at NWS' four major climate results for the fist week of the month and they're all over the place. But if the numbers were added up together/4 you sort of bootleg the 'expected average' result so far using the aggregate. It will be interesting to revisit these numbers a week from now and see where they stand. Here's my hypothesis (destined not to transpire for the sole reason that I advanced it...) ...May ends up above average come June 1. The reason I suggest this is that this cold pattern seems to want to behave like all others since we passed through the "climate warming event horizon"; an uneventful silent circumstance, some decades ago, where we seem to have lost the ability to actually sustain cold years. Since then, ...it gets cold in spikes that are comparatively shorter in duration as the primary means to offset a systemically persistent warming. As the old addage goes... climate doesn't dictate the dailies and that is true... However, that statement sort of belies the truth that the dailies should eventually probablistically favor/ reflect the changing climate ... Digressions aside, my thinking is that as soon as we sans the blocking tendencies (and we don't even have to lose that entirely at this time of year...just remove the excessive negative SD and the block influence decays) the lower troposphere will bounce back pretty quickly. I still see that as happening around the 20th ... and then if we had ten straight days to close out the month that for all we know could even be a mass-field sort of seesaw scenario, we could cook and bring it back over the top. I'm suspicious we could clad bounce above normal in that time span, too. There are indications/subtleties in the operational runs and ensemble to put up a ridge in the east, and given to residence for cooling patterns ...we should term this puppy by then anyway, and then the system compensates.

oh ...didn't see this post. yup! ...I just got done s'plainin' the same thing