Typhoon Tip

This isn't a bad assumption or guess or ..surmise...or insight ( pick whatever is less offensive and extends the best adulation ) ... Because as we know, shallow systems tend to run along with the trade vectors...and the steering/integral with the streering level needs the virtue of actually having a vertical structure to tap into that level... Such that sustained updrafts are then influenced - In a way... the quasi-coupling with the oceanic heat source is crucial in that it is not absolutely coupled...if so, it would always shear apart...but, it sort of sinusoidally cycloids/tilts ...where the direction of the storm motion always leans some imperceptible amount in the direction the storm is moving - .... heh...cool!

See those fractals and shrapnel of SAL inside the busted ravioli region of the blown open vortex ....??? that's what's left of the venom once it is ingested and mixes with, and ultimately physically stops the pseudo-adiabats from timely release of latent heat... The way SAL works/is theorized...by the way ... is that it infuses "too much of a good thing" into the cloud seeding levels of the sounding... Such that when condensates are super-proficiently gather early system doesn't benefit from the time-corriolis part of the dynamics, and the system is effectively stopped from organizing mechanically -

Mm...I would add that momentum isn't the only thing wrong with trying to move this elephant's ass... There is a huge envelopment of SAL that is wrapped cyclonically into the wester circumvallate of the best perceived cyclonic region ...actually looks like the stinger on a TC death hornet

Not speaking for NHC's policy but...the Euro has a history from my own experience, at downplaying TC genesis...It does fine once the storms are deeper formulated and perhaps 'detectable' - so it seems ...- in the initialization grids. But prior to that, the model does not seem to 'zygote' TCs based off mere ingredients that are present in the environment. Contrasting, ...the GGEM is overly volatile in that regard...taking very little provocation shy of a f'n cumulus cloud ... it runs along and develops them into Cat 4 tempests within five or six days... That was all 10 years ago, tho. Not sure what recent year's performances and how those are comparative to any modeling enhancement with the tropics, since. It's tricky though, ..because the Euro and the GFS: ...the former is a finer meshed model and all that ... with the sophisticated correction schemes and blah blah...but its actual physics are hydrostatic, meaning it relies upon geometric altitude. Contrasting, the GFS is a non-hydrostatic model... using pressure coordinates. By virtue of the tropics, that requires a hypsometric resolution.. and since hypsometry is the integral PV=NRT into the hydrostatic, which is purely altitude, it seems that "might" be why the Euro has trouble with momentum at the lower bounds of TC realization... Which cannot be resolved ( don't believe ) without the vertical resolution and actually pseudo -adiabats are involved in that...duh - to wit, the tropic model/TC is a vertical physical/convection machinery, converting the latent heat to rising motion, is converting thermal energy into a mechanical energy - it really is an extraordinarily elegant, naturally occurring efficient engine - way waaay more so than the internal combustion engines invented by human ingenuity that interestingly...if we keep using, will stop the former eventually. etc.. we suck yet again...and so on, enjoy your breakfasts... So, it seems the Euro would be less better? It is certainly seeming at times too conservative to 'get things going,' that much is prevalent in memory and experience. It may be that it just doesn't have the grid resolution of data in the tropics to populate the grids, too, but with sat sounding so sophisticated these days that's getting to be harder sell... Just thought I'd give the novice engagement of this site a well-deserved pop-cycle headache by saying those words - so run along for you Advil

It might have been 20 yeah. But “drought” should imply a ‘serious dearth’ extending beyond that range ... to which neither in statistical parlance or spirit are we there. I’d also suggest that hurricanes coming up the coast like ‘38 .. Hazel ... etc, might Even get more rare with an expanded Hadley Cell Just an educated hunch

I don't think we're in a TC drought - per se ... - in New England. Unless this has changed ... I recall reading there's a rough 30 year periodicity for at or > cat 1 threat N of NYC latitude/coast... We had Bob in ' 91? ...plus, a cornucopia of residual threats that might sorta kinda argue for occurrence ( tho lame) via the lesser aggregate. Expectations are constant drama and dystopian or bust, I know ... Lol

Mm.. wonder how these enhanced probability calls for a '38 type redux are rooted... I don't see it based upon super-synoptic hemispheric trends ... not even close. We have a central/mid-latitude CONUS ridge that keeps burgeoning and then sort of doing a hemispheric-scaled Kelvin-Hemholtz tumble-over... evidenced in the counter-balanced tendency to dive the wind field through the Martimes. Proobably need to review a crucial conceptual point about entities in the atmosphere? ... they move with the wind ... What about that above seasonality persistence sends a category 3 cane up abeam the EC headed for deforestation of VT - Now, ... it's not IMpossible to have an anomaly relative to the persistence above ...set up just in time... Shit happens... But, it seems the longitudinal flow/progressivity in the means is both trend, and has planetary super-synoptic scale motivators for being that way... Namely, the expanded HC seems to be expressing this summer... It is making for increased ambient velocities at mid levels and that doesn't really physically support meridian flow structures - like placing a negative hydrostatic anomaly over WV and sucking a cane up toward or into the NY Bite... Just in short, a ridge axis 90 to 80W that is sharply ablating from the NW along and E of 70 ... even though the GFS does so too much... in a lesser variation of the GFS ...still deflects and hooks seaward N of the Del Marva

TD

Not to steal this "thunder" ( n'yuk n'yuk) but...I would go ahead and extend this risk right through the Lakes .. on into NYS/PA, NE and the upper MA frankly ...given to the fact that the wind is W at 500 mb at an unusually strong velocity along that 588 DAM hydrostatic height by 6 dm either side of that demarcator ... which concomitantly houses a pretty rich hypsometric plume underneath. I mentioned in my heat drafting in the other thread, that the MCS and or MCS/debris would be limiting factors as caveat emptors to heating potential - and still is... Thing is, if it initiates that far west it'll tend to pac-man right of the environmental flow and up S... then we get vil choked and dim sunned out of either interesting weather, heat or convection ...which is the ultimate goal of the butt-bang god controling NE weather ...so...better sacrifice those virgins ...haha

Everyone in here is a zealot… Dude it doesn’t matter whether in Rhode Island or Maine plus I’m only kidding.. heh

Don’t let it ... this kind of chatter starts every year shortly after the solstice ... gradually it reaches a fever pitch around mid October when winter forecast start ending society in an apocalyptic cryosphere ... ... and then of course spring rolls around with post mortem analysis over what went wrong .. gee we wonder what

Is that list all time ? ...as in going back hundreds of years

It doesn't matter if the SSTs and thermocline numbers are high or low, relative to some longer term averages ... if there is no gradient in the field to trigger a physical response ... those 'super ninos' don't mean shit. It's just this simple: a +2 standard deviation of total ENSO in 1900 has more mechanical power to force a signature in the system, than it does now because the gradient now between that +2 and the atmospheric thermal source and sink is less. LESS = less restoring force ... Less restoring force = less response... There's still a tendency to look at these fields in deference to whether they exist or not ... As though, A exists thus B should result... 'A' cannot merely exist...? If it exists...it is doing so in a constant fluid gradient relationship with its surrounding, at every instant of time in a perpetual balancing of forces... That is entirely the machinery in Nature really... everything in nature is attempting to make the difference between point A and B, 0. When A is less different than B... there is less movement (acceleration) to fix the differences... The atmosphere is entirely guided by that exact same fundamental physical principle. Whereby, that 'acceleration' is observable in subsequent pattern forcing... If A is huge...but B is huge, one cannot merely look at 'A' ... What really needs to happen is that a metric that is the standard deviation of the actual gradient needs to be calculated - not the the SST SDs alone... Unfortunately, the gradient is a dynamic integral ...good luck

Whatever happens ... high probability it happens in a relentlessly screaming rage of jet velocities ...

you didn't ask but what plagues the western civilities of the world is too much affluence ... the thing that obfuscates ...or obscures that factor is that affluence is still not ubiquitously distributed ... The haves still have disproportionately, above fairness, more than the have nots... that is a fairness issue(s) and tend(s) to be misconstrued as destitution, certainly mediated and pressed that way - but it's a faux read. there is enough resource and access to survivability that the vast majority now has the luxury to turn attention away from levers and donkey health, into ideology's preoccupation and that quickly becomes the new essence to life...thus, an the obsession, and survival is quasi transformed into a life-or-death struggle there.. Some longish words there... but if a carrington event turned off the lights and started truly correcting the population downward despite all efforts to prevent the chaos... like this pandemic will ultimately prove a sensationalized failure... people would begin to sober up real, real fast as to what is important. suddenly that democrat...republican...islamic martian from the planet 'differentthanme' that might be able to feed me if i'm willing to show a modicum of understanding and compromise, suddenly becomes a strangely more attractive offer over some delusion of outrage embraced at a self-righteous indignation rally. people need to be humbled back to something like, 'get real you f'n beef-witted crassulent self-centered assholes'

Bingo! Nothing motivates would-be noblemen and state's people like the moods of their constituency - the only other way around that in a democratic voter-society is cheating. Thank god there's no ... Wait a sec - Humor aside, if the ballast of lever pullers abandon the profligate presumption of entitlement to natural resources... finally connecting with the consequence-causality circuitry [ add finite science here .. ], the complexion of the office seeker is forced to change. But note I said 'complexion.' Execution in keeping with those promises that answer to ethos is entirely up to institutions put in place over the generations, charged with the responsibility to ensure those elected officials are 'owning up' ... It's a good thing we haven't seen any attempt at the dissolution of those agencies and institution, then, right ? Wait a sec - The total model of corruption could not be more patently clearly afoot in IR -based societies,. And, I still posit that the main reason why such brazen antics go down, and there is only passive moral recovery or even much vitriol at all, is because of post-Industrial Revolution giving rise to conveniences that rescue the existential state of society at all levels, from having to eat the shit of their own mistakes. But, the environment in that metaphor, quite succinctly becomes the dumping ground. In a baser 101 philosophical perspective: nature is about balancing positive and negatives... That's it. All of reality exist because at some quantum Plank scale...there is an imbalance that is attempting to get to neutral. That tug of war integrates to a Universe of time...space... energy and your life! And everything and anything that can be perceived happens because of that scaffold. So, it is quite logical to assume that 5 billion Industrial breast feeders are getting fat, something else has to be getting skinny. Metaphors are fun... Simple terms, if we lived in a reality where mistakes resulted in pain? Oh f yeah, people would sit up and take notice ...immediately. But the IR wipes humanity ass, by gobbling up even more resources to "save" them from having to conserve .. protecting all from seeing the consequences. Thus, the ease at convenience to deny, becomes self-reinforcing: 'I denied it last week, I got a raise, therefore, denial is right.' And that becomes a runaway selfish culture among many other abhorrent characters.

Thought y'all might find this interesting... https://phys.org/news/2019-12-el-nio-event-year.html

This goes along with the expansion ( Globally) of the Hadley Cell into the lower Ferrel latitudes... Among the charming symptoms: shifting mean storm tracks farther N of previous century(s) observation, is recently noted; speeding up the tropospheric deep layer wind velocities. This may be decadally ephemeral .. lasting while the polar regions are still sufficiently differentiable relative to the subtropics in winters, such that surplus latent heat stows in the lower latitudes cause increasing slope/ geopotential gradients everywhere in the ambient means. When/if the polar regions continue to warm, this particular effect may wane into a circumstance unknown. North America tending to run cooler ( though still warmer than normal at times ... ) relative to the other continental areas of the planet, due to it's unique geographical circumstance in the total Pacific-North American loading pattern - which Pac heat --> tendency for increased NE Pacific ridging ...which concomitantly supplies an enhanced tendency for western/central Canadian deep layer circulation response and NW/N conveyor(s). And... the MJO. It is just going to behave in concert and form, in it's own way, relative to the HC forcing/changes, just as well... This is not discussing how any of GW and the MJO effects say, Australia, or Indonesia or the Eurasian regions or anywhere else... Africa and Mediterranean climates ..etc. It's just mentioning that there are noteworthy and observable ongoing changes in the N/A circulation tendencies.

Keep in mind ... PDO means Pacific "Decade" Oscillation. These vicissitudes in the SST layouts will come and go, usually per local time scaled sea-surface stressing events. But they are as that suggest, ephemeral. They offer the jagged ups and down along the longer time-scaled curves, the typical behavior of any of these statistical inference efforts in nature. By conceptual understanding of what that means, there can be transient spans that may not represent the actual PDO. Right now the longer, 'weightier' curve shows that the index has been positive since the year 2015 or so, as I'm sure someone's pointed out .. Some of the months spanning 2018.. mm, the index is not exactly overbearingly positive, with many monthly values within mere decimals of 0, with a couple of blips in there where the index fell minutely negative ( < 0 ). I'm having difficulty finding the exact numbers for 2019 ( to date ), but multiple sources match one another and indicate the curve is sloping presently toward neutral ( 0 ), whether it is actually there yet. In any case, PDO correlation against present and -though-to-be correlated patterns, would need to be tested at relative PDO strengths. In most scientific statistics, by definition, when a curve approaches 0, that usually infer "N/S" ( no skill ) which mean equal probabilities.

Uh, "yes even" You'd be a sociopath if you altered peoples genetic construct without complete transparency and mutual concurrence ... I mean, this is silly at this point.

Wow ...so ur kinda sorta out there, huh Not me... no one f's with my DNA thank you. I think you'll find that is the consistent position among most human beings whom are proposition with the idea of having their innate sense of wonder chromosomely castrated. Yeeeah just sayn'

I don't believe that assumption logically follows ... ( bold ) If one employs technologies that do not profligate resource consumption, than there's no problem - that's just math. The paradox you mentioned is an economics theorem; not sure I see the logic of why that means we should not supplant fossil fuels with green/renewable energy sourcing, when the latter drops the "exhaust" of humanity below the thresholds that adversely affects/effects the vitality and eventual gestalt of the total environment. The theorem defaults to non-detrimental. That's what this is all about - can the background absorb without forcing - The complete "commune" vision of Humanity has zero plausibility and/or logistically managed reality to it. There's too much power for ingenuity and wonder for advancing discovery as part of our evolutionary gift to withstand these motivations, which requires capacity that far exceeds the bucket and lever society paradigm. What I'm saying is... tech is part of our evolution as the true tool manipulator species - you can't remove that any more than you can ask someone to ... remove a hand or a foot. You can't do it. The solution is harmony - it's just that right now... we generate more din and discord, when we gear resource acquisition straight into the machinery greed-based economics. That much I agree with in principle/over-tones to some of what you imply.

O, I C ... No I don't actually... what the in hell do all these abbreviations mean in that product's context? What's "PV" ... does that mean polar vortex. What in the f are "WEO" ... "IEA" and NPS... Oh, I see ... some of those are expanded in the subheading.. .But what is PV again?

Nah... I was referencing a prior context - that statement you are responding to is not that context. The prior context did thematically portray Gaia as some sort of agent of intelligence that was strategizing the demise of Humanity - almost as a hand-throwing acquiescence to the notion that Humanity cannot be reasoned with, so blind extermination is the only recourse... Muah hahaha. Something along those lines was implicit - That would be fodder for science fiction/fantasy. But Gaia "self- regulating" - I'm not sure I agree with that either. I've heard other's sort of crutch on Gaia in principle, like it'll "protect" and "save" Earth from us... Mmm. No. It's not regulating shit when there's a mass-extinction already underway. I understand the modern definition contains that terminology, self-regulation, but that is being conflated with self-protecting. Even Gaia theory would have its break point... Think of it this way ( logically ): if the organic life that is supposed to be working WITH the inorganic Earth to produce a synergy-related positive feed-back that supports life, what does it mean if the life part of that formula ceases to exist? No Gaia, that's what - It's failing is what that is. And just like all the major mass-extinction events, regardless of whether they are causally related to geology, extra-terrestrial bombardment, or ... fascinatingly, the biology of the planet its self, these effectively wiped out their "Gaias" in lieu of new Gaias. As far as Gaia its self... upon deeper reflection ... I find it just as equatable to processes of ecological-balance. There are direct interdependent requirements of life within any given domain, and that domain then has indirect but still important dependencies upon adjacent ecology(s). Gaia really just a whimsical way of artfully describing the same thing in a poetic refrain of awe and wonder. But it's no different than ecology processes of various life components working unwittingly in support of one another.

https://phys.org/news/2019-11-arctic-ocean-ice-free-year.html