Typhoon Tip

I could see that evolving into a Bahama blue pattern ... It's another personal-ism so bite me - Basically, it's when the WAR doesn't edge - enough so - over eastern continent, and a weakness forms between it and the semi-permanent western N/A heat dome... The flow becomes S/SSW from the surface to 200 mb level east of the cordillera ( that's App. mountains axis) ... I "think" ( though am not certain ) that the huge PWAT laminar transport that occurs from the deeper subtropics all the way up ... provides so much condensation potential on the atmospheric particulates,...that together they rain/settle out impurities, rendering the sky so deeply blue it's like some fantasy world Korean pop video where rain drops are violet pieces of candy... Whatever microphysical and or other cause, you get some extraordinary visibilities with DPs of 76 ...all the way to Maine when that sets up. the impetus in awe being...it's hard to get vast visibility in high water content... but that sort of scenario achieves that somehow. I haven't seen this in the last couple of years tho... actually going back five or more ...I don't recall.. It used to happen almost dependably once or twice per summer, that set up ... in the 1980s through the 1990s, but since 2000...seems increasingly a rarefied synoptic ordeal. I think that is because the flow is being sped up - yup...yet again, because of the dreaded HC expansion. I've noticed even in summers we have velocity anomalies. I mean, yesterday, nearing Augie 1, ...we had CU turrets ripping so violently NE away from the buoyancy parcels that it was probably even inhibiting complete rain out of the convective cycle beneath them... I saw vil plumes go from eastern CT to S of NS in like an hour... what is that... 300 mb 200 mph geostrophic wind speed - jesus christ. Slow the f* down already... Anyway, if the total atmospheric maelstrom ...like everywhere, is having to balance that kind of momentum distribution, it's just mathematically/geo-physically ( probably demonstrable) that the wave structure/R-numbers would make scenarios less capable of N-S orientation in lieu of conserving all that rage pointing W-E. Just a supposition...but I think a good one.

They would have been better off if they had conceptualized, "...With the unexpected summer-season surging COVID-19 new cases being observed throughout the nation, primarily outside of the six-state New England, NY and NJ region(s), we have determined that the safest course of action is to limit travel as much as possible outside of our region of the country. " At least it would not be insultingly dimwitted - that product ...seemingly attempting to tap into the instinctual blood-red comes off as divisively fear-mongering and heavy handed - almost regime-like verboten in every sense of "Gestapoen" (Gestapo) rule - 'don't go there or else!' .... I suspect they are just short-sighted and over stressed ...but that's almost comical

Conspiracy theorists dabble in plausibilities while negating the probabilities - and that's what suspends their disbelief ... psycho babble feeds back, viola! they're out to get us - But, the Gov of Mass is not helping when they put out products that look like this. Yet, under the auspices of where are the 'low risk states' vs 'high risk states' ? This looks like a child did this - anything that's not us. Almost smacks like we're all just a bunch of beef-witted plebeians that are too stupid to "get it" so just "tell 'em not to go anywhere" I don't know if this is lazy or swamped ...probably the latter, but this really needs some sort of qualitative refinement .. It looks like a tongue-in-cheek prop behind "Weekend Update" on SNL. This makes no logical sense - they're doing rolling percentages and some other explanatory method that doesn't really fit "reality" ... Massachusetts ( for example...) has a population of just over 6.8 million, and a caseload that brings to ~0.4% of the population, and Alaska has a caseload to pop ratio that comes to .01% ....why are they high risk and Mass low risk? I'm sure there's something else to this but that's bad art/presentation for an increasingly skeptical and perturbed population that's about ready to suck on a f'n covid pipe out of frustration anyway!

yeah...but to elaborate on what should be glaring... every passing hour that there is no center or enough momentum therein, shades the potential of this thing... at this point, it looks like it's already into the eastern Caribbean gauntlet where most bambi's take a bullet - mm gee....looks like the conservative genesis approach of the Euro may have merited in this case ?

Somewhat interesting ... the 18z GFS appears to have partially capitulated to those GGEM ilk kind of sticks the Euro on an island by its self. I mentioned this earlier… The Euro has a history of being a bit delayed with initiation in the tropics wondering if this is one of those times

Kind of interesting ... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined take a look at the fixated fog bank out SE of the Cape ...notice the southern edge seems to be permanently etched out of free space ?? I suspect that is demarcating a cold water/warm water interface, and everywhere that is fog-side is the colder SSTs ...

So bearing very little resemblance at mid level tropospheric layout and/or synoptic evolution ... those forcing governors manage to relay a TC ( assuming so...) up the EC similar to the track and speed behavior of Irene ... At least per some of the operational versions that are more coherent with development... Granted, the Euro and GFS are not impressed with this system and never have been. That said, even these guidances have come around ( a little bit ..) more polished with the developmental complexion of the would-be TC .. overnight. It may still yet be that the system is being under-done therein, pending a better detection of actually existing in the initialization grids for these global numerical models. Contrasting, these other guidance ... such as the stellar performing NAVGEM and the shimmering gallory of mediocrity museum-able GGEM...to mention the HWRF ( wooh, bestill our quaken dystopian lustful hearts) may simply be more physically sensitive to parametric variables - thus don't need as much to development matters further. Speculating.... Earlier in this thread I was of the school that there was no way to get an EC crawl and/or expresser given the season trends - and of course... proving the existence of metaphysical forces governing all... summarily the pattern begins to change toward one that would, only "seemingly" by pure coincidental timing. We'll have to see ...

Bahama blue pattern... Pixel showers with narrow turrets that blind windshields for thirty seconds and lower the backyard temp from 84/75 to 79/78 before resets... Sometimes training though -

Really ... I've seen snow at least in the air in 5 of the last 8 Octobers, 3 novembers hosting winter storm warning verification - I guess if one can't wait a month post Sept one they're probably not lucid enough to pay attention to anyway ..

'course I haven't seen the 12z Euro yet...

Meh... looks to me like an incremental step by the GGEM/NAVGEM....etc, toward a suppression - reluctant capitulators to the Euro ...just need another two or three cycles to have this down to a TW southwest of Jamaica... But, at least it spurred 7 pages of profligate consumption of fossil fuels to power the internet and the engagement for absolutely nothing - lol

This isn't a bad assumption or guess or ..surmise...or insight ( pick whatever is less offensive and extends the best adulation ) ... Because as we know, shallow systems tend to run along with the trade vectors...and the steering/integral with the streering level needs the virtue of actually having a vertical structure to tap into that level... Such that sustained updrafts are then influenced - In a way... the quasi-coupling with the oceanic heat source is crucial in that it is not absolutely coupled...if so, it would always shear apart...but, it sort of sinusoidally cycloids/tilts ...where the direction of the storm motion always leans some imperceptible amount in the direction the storm is moving - .... heh...cool!

See those fractals and shrapnel of SAL inside the busted ravioli region of the blown open vortex ....??? that's what's left of the venom once it is ingested and mixes with, and ultimately physically stops the pseudo-adiabats from timely release of latent heat... The way SAL works/is theorized...by the way ... is that it infuses "too much of a good thing" into the cloud seeding levels of the sounding... Such that when condensates are super-proficiently gather early system doesn't benefit from the time-corriolis part of the dynamics, and the system is effectively stopped from organizing mechanically -

Mm...I would add that momentum isn't the only thing wrong with trying to move this elephant's ass... There is a huge envelopment of SAL that is wrapped cyclonically into the wester circumvallate of the best perceived cyclonic region ...actually looks like the stinger on a TC death hornet

Not speaking for NHC's policy but...the Euro has a history from my own experience, at downplaying TC genesis...It does fine once the storms are deeper formulated and perhaps 'detectable' - so it seems ...- in the initialization grids. But prior to that, the model does not seem to 'zygote' TCs based off mere ingredients that are present in the environment. Contrasting, ...the GGEM is overly volatile in that regard...taking very little provocation shy of a f'n cumulus cloud ... it runs along and develops them into Cat 4 tempests within five or six days... That was all 10 years ago, tho. Not sure what recent year's performances and how those are comparative to any modeling enhancement with the tropics, since. It's tricky though, ..because the Euro and the GFS: ...the former is a finer meshed model and all that ... with the sophisticated correction schemes and blah blah...but its actual physics are hydrostatic, meaning it relies upon geometric altitude. Contrasting, the GFS is a non-hydrostatic model... using pressure coordinates. By virtue of the tropics, that requires a hypsometric resolution.. and since hypsometry is the integral PV=NRT into the hydrostatic, which is purely altitude, it seems that "might" be why the Euro has trouble with momentum at the lower bounds of TC realization... Which cannot be resolved ( don't believe ) without the vertical resolution and actually pseudo -adiabats are involved in that...duh - to wit, the tropic model/TC is a vertical physical/convection machinery, converting the latent heat to rising motion, is converting thermal energy into a mechanical energy - it really is an extraordinarily elegant, naturally occurring efficient engine - way waaay more so than the internal combustion engines invented by human ingenuity that interestingly...if we keep using, will stop the former eventually. etc.. we suck yet again...and so on, enjoy your breakfasts... So, it seems the Euro would be less better? It is certainly seeming at times too conservative to 'get things going,' that much is prevalent in memory and experience. It may be that it just doesn't have the grid resolution of data in the tropics to populate the grids, too, but with sat sounding so sophisticated these days that's getting to be harder sell... Just thought I'd give the novice engagement of this site a well-deserved pop-cycle headache by saying those words - so run along for you Advil

It might have been 20 yeah. But “drought” should imply a ‘serious dearth’ extending beyond that range ... to which neither in statistical parlance or spirit are we there. I’d also suggest that hurricanes coming up the coast like ‘38 .. Hazel ... etc, might Even get more rare with an expanded Hadley Cell Just an educated hunch

I don't think we're in a TC drought - per se ... - in New England. Unless this has changed ... I recall reading there's a rough 30 year periodicity for at or > cat 1 threat N of NYC latitude/coast... We had Bob in ' 91? ...plus, a cornucopia of residual threats that might sorta kinda argue for occurrence ( tho lame) via the lesser aggregate. Expectations are constant drama and dystopian or bust, I know ... Lol

Mm.. wonder how these enhanced probability calls for a '38 type redux are rooted... I don't see it based upon super-synoptic hemispheric trends ... not even close. We have a central/mid-latitude CONUS ridge that keeps burgeoning and then sort of doing a hemispheric-scaled Kelvin-Hemholtz tumble-over... evidenced in the counter-balanced tendency to dive the wind field through the Martimes. Proobably need to review a crucial conceptual point about entities in the atmosphere? ... they move with the wind ... What about that above seasonality persistence sends a category 3 cane up abeam the EC headed for deforestation of VT - Now, ... it's not IMpossible to have an anomaly relative to the persistence above ...set up just in time... Shit happens... But, it seems the longitudinal flow/progressivity in the means is both trend, and has planetary super-synoptic scale motivators for being that way... Namely, the expanded HC seems to be expressing this summer... It is making for increased ambient velocities at mid levels and that doesn't really physically support meridian flow structures - like placing a negative hydrostatic anomaly over WV and sucking a cane up toward or into the NY Bite... Just in short, a ridge axis 90 to 80W that is sharply ablating from the NW along and E of 70 ... even though the GFS does so too much... in a lesser variation of the GFS ...still deflects and hooks seaward N of the Del Marva

TD

Not to steal this "thunder" ( n'yuk n'yuk) but...I would go ahead and extend this risk right through the Lakes .. on into NYS/PA, NE and the upper MA frankly ...given to the fact that the wind is W at 500 mb at an unusually strong velocity along that 588 DAM hydrostatic height by 6 dm either side of that demarcator ... which concomitantly houses a pretty rich hypsometric plume underneath. I mentioned in my heat drafting in the other thread, that the MCS and or MCS/debris would be limiting factors as caveat emptors to heating potential - and still is... Thing is, if it initiates that far west it'll tend to pac-man right of the environmental flow and up S... then we get vil choked and dim sunned out of either interesting weather, heat or convection ...which is the ultimate goal of the butt-bang god controling NE weather ...so...better sacrifice those virgins ...haha

Everyone in here is a zealot… Dude it doesn’t matter whether in Rhode Island or Maine plus I’m only kidding.. heh

Don’t let it ... this kind of chatter starts every year shortly after the solstice ... gradually it reaches a fever pitch around mid October when winter forecast start ending society in an apocalyptic cryosphere ... ... and then of course spring rolls around with post mortem analysis over what went wrong .. gee we wonder what

Is that list all time ? ...as in going back hundreds of years

It doesn't matter if the SSTs and thermocline numbers are high or low, relative to some longer term averages ... if there is no gradient in the field to trigger a physical response ... those 'super ninos' don't mean shit. It's just this simple: a +2 standard deviation of total ENSO in 1900 has more mechanical power to force a signature in the system, than it does now because the gradient now between that +2 and the atmospheric thermal source and sink is less. LESS = less restoring force ... Less restoring force = less response... There's still a tendency to look at these fields in deference to whether they exist or not ... As though, A exists thus B should result... 'A' cannot merely exist...? If it exists...it is doing so in a constant fluid gradient relationship with its surrounding, at every instant of time in a perpetual balancing of forces... That is entirely the machinery in Nature really... everything in nature is attempting to make the difference between point A and B, 0. When A is less different than B... there is less movement (acceleration) to fix the differences... The atmosphere is entirely guided by that exact same fundamental physical principle. Whereby, that 'acceleration' is observable in subsequent pattern forcing... If A is huge...but B is huge, one cannot merely look at 'A' ... What really needs to happen is that a metric that is the standard deviation of the actual gradient needs to be calculated - not the the SST SDs alone... Unfortunately, the gradient is a dynamic integral ...good luck

Whatever happens ... high probability it happens in a relentlessly screaming rage of jet velocities ...