Typhoon Tip

There could be a seasonal precedence sort of trend-type to consider - it'll get us every time, when you've done a thing several times and start doubting any recurrence. We had something in June... cross over PR and got ravaged and plumed its over-designated vestige was pulled on up the coast as a 78 F DP wash ... Fay? God... I write from a head-space voided of quickly accessible memory. Not sure how that's possible but - heh. But then we just did ISIS ... a.k.a., "Isiasi" Seems these were for merely either just getting lucky, or ... Gaia is sending notifications that our license to build trillion dollars of assets in infrastructure and priceless decades of family, friends, and forsaken love interest story lines is about to be revoked for failure to renew on humility - like the DMV sends those? Re the luck part... We did Fay and ISIS by ally-oop timing. Both found ways to roll dice in a longer termed pattern that does not suggest that would be favorable - like the annuls preceding that minor wind event that didn't do much in 1938 over Long Island. Apparently... it was a sultry misty summer with drizzly humid day toward the end of August and September... That smacks as a Bahama conveyor pattern to me - which typically needs to have a neg anomaly somewhere around WV ...with a WAR exerting west from the Atlantic. It was a like na na na-na daring the tropics ... But this year? Nah... this was ridging and heat prevalent pervasive then relaxed just in time for two days for something to turn the corner and up they rode. That behavior in its self... the "getting lucky" may be more like some kind of super-physical ( no, not "meta" - ) connective tissue between the tropics and the mid latitudes... I think I could almost Sci-Fi guess what that is - I think the expanded HC may also become more integral in timing those TC/latent heat delivery pathways into the lower Ferril Cell latitudes .. fascinating. Anyway, this feature out there looks remarkably similar to ISIS the way it was handled in the models...with weak or no reflection and over assessing shear stress. Yet, it nearer terms... the models had to correct for that a little - at any rate. 'Nough so that when it won the battle and turned the corner E of Florida still intact enough, it benefitted from lowering relative-shear and just barely made the "omg cut" as a categorical TC. Here we are... languishing in this heat and a ridge that the models keep trying to premature get us to early December again...and this thing comes along and gee! Go wonder, ...the GGEM puts a N-S orient baroclinic wall over the EC on D8.6 which could very well end up being another Bahama conveyor much in the same way. Seasonal trends... they'll getcha everytime - we'll see

That's an interesting factoid for a couple of abstractions... Namely, it did not "seem" to be very active, and perhaps more importantly 'why did it only seem so'? I think some of that may be my own personal conditioning, and though I pride myself on resisting the beguiling allure faux persistence ... I am human. By "faux" ( or miss-representation ..) there has most certainly been an increased frequency in designation - I'll give it that much. I am being sort of sarcastic there in that a lot of those events in this so-called over-active July, seemed - imho - to be a bit nit-picking to be honest. Were the July's of 1955 really less? Particularly when that era did not benefit from satellite or any other in the dizzying array of technologies availing to the modern observers. To mention, the science in classification of what is and is not a tropical entity was not quite as theoretically established or as indoctrinated as policy therefrom. When did the turn of phrase, "Phase diagram" and percentages over the quatradures become common practice...and on and so on. I mean, they weren't idiots, no. In fact, they were true fisherman because their tech mis se science did not merely provide them fish like alarms sounding off when DIVORAC pegs a threshold for ravioli status, heh. Haha, they're probably out playing Golf with an iPhone app networked to the TPC lab, "bing bing" ... "Damn, right on my backstroke". So between nit-picking via the virtue of technological evolution vs actually having to hand-draw geostrophic gradients while waiting for primitive non-ubiquitous radio buoys and/or fortuitously interloping shipping traffic ... with sleeves rolled up over cigarettes and coffee ( because of course ... the latter was still actually 'good for you' in those days) ...somewhere in between there might be a more "realistically" observed July... I'm trying to be diplomatically skeptical here... ...any "historical" designation of ooh-and ah for any very modern July that featured ground meat gets an asterisk - It would help 2020's street cred if it put up an overactive "historical" July that removed all doubt - blown open raviolis out there coughing out exposed llv whirls betrayed only by the remarkable achievement of HD imagery from 22,500 thousand miles into space ...is like cheering on privilege for making it home when they start on 2nd Base. It's really almost more notable as an achievement of human ingenuity and AI than anything else. I'm being tongue-in-cheek to anyone above half-wit comprehension. Actually, only an idiot would go against the modern end, as more accurate .. but that's the confusion. The debate is confused as competency - the "tree fell in the woods" in both eras, but we are just more capable now of hearing the thuds... Mind you.. the1950s was an active decade ... I bet one or two of those July's just might have had a few busted raviolis out there in their own unsung rights and heroics..

I’m going to be interested in whether the model’s call for a day five windshear of 20 to 30 nights from the southwest actually materializes at that particular latitude longitude; where they expect this would be tropical storm to be situated at that particular space and time would be a bit of a wind anomaly at this time of year at that velocity

With CPC PNA tconnectors all dropping wouldn’t shock me if that ends an abandoned middling trough sagging down the Appalachian Cordillera we end up in a Bahama blue pattern actually. There’s a seasonal transfer that also the last one that drew Isias up the coast was also at one point in the latter mid range a much deeper trough

So many failed crispies today. Tower after tall tower with sharp edges collapse just short Sick heat. tho. Unrelenting sear. T was 90+ by noon and still 90 until 6:30. Lot of hours at body temperature HIs

This heat wave was showing up in the ensembles for a while actually. it’s interesting in that the models balloon the hypsometric ridge ... after the highest heat has vacated. We’ll see if that really works out that way

yeah..the late day loopage out there seems that regions acquired some cylonic tendency in general, too - Also, it seems to me that NHC has a kind of quasi- reliance on the models too, for designating invests. I mean they should... otherwise, what's the technology for - but it does seem that if there isn't at least some ensemble support they tend to ignore these things... That, out there and this little whirl that actually, the GGEM from 12z does bear some semblance of a reflection of it now in the surface pressure pattern albeit weak. The one mid way did have a few runs a while back and go figure -

No one asked me ...but, not sure how to know given the present and recent trends in modeling. There's like .. zero trend. The american teleconnector agencies are mixed, with the CDC suggesting a warm middle latitude continent, while the CPC is tepid at best. Meanwhile, the operational models are flipping negative and positive in their anomaly distributions toward mid month every couple of runs. Three days ago, there was a more convincing warm look ... reasonably well shared among the guidance types. But has since sort of proven maybe was coincident noise. Probably just means normal ... boring but normal. A declaration that is a sure -fire way to get the models to throw up a firestorm heat wave on the next cycle, being the risk of course

There's an interesting small whirl some 400 miles E of Cape Canaveral FL that's been spinning for a three days there...it's presently obscured by its own CB flare-up ...but it's interesting - https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-southeast-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Wouldn't surprise me... We've been getting the Kelvin-Hemholtz wave folding at continental scales... favoring cold plumes plumbing S into the counter rotation of the synoptic "tuck" earlier and earlier... It's the same thing on the way out in spring, too, and why we've been getting cold april and mays. I'm surprised we haven't repeat '77 but it may just be a matter of time ? But as far as August, just look at the GGEM from 12z ...It's doing it already... that D10 look is winter, period... It runs our side of the world through a mammoth -AAM subtropical ridge look ... with an upside down pressure pattern - high over Maine - no heat because of east flow everywhere. Hypsometric anomaly with no lower tropospheric warm is another reason why we've been above average ..but never winning the global race in the warming stuff..different discussion ... Anyway, by D10 it like suddenly folds everything over and ends up with an 850 mb 0C plume within a meteorological stone's through of Lake Superior. D7's synopsis does not connote D10 is going to situate that way but it gets there almost sneakily .. The models do this at times, their extended ranges will tend to reflect what has been happening at seasonal scales - so there's probably some causal linkage between the virtual and the verification there. It's getting to two solid months past the solstice and autumn is already walking up the driveway at 70 N so ... Anyway, my seasonal forecast is for early cold and a snow threat or two from mid October to early December...followed by the compression of the geopotential medium and the gradient speeding up exotically everywhere and then winter's ruined until the flow relaxes next March and we get a couple spring threats or May packing pellet cold snaps... Rinse and repeat... until mid century, when and where winters as we know them at our latitude are a thing of that past - welcome to VA

Mid month looks warmer than normal. American teleconnectors suggest so...and the EPS mean almost has -AAM look to it with stretched super-synoptic wave scaling. Has a double node ridge expanded from Colorado to Bermuda on D10...and rising height through. Look at the D7-10 GGEM operational, with a mega ridge and E to SE BL flow everywhere east of Chicago and S of Ontario - ...pretty strong argument for an expanded HC. That's a trade flow on the continent - I mean...it's the GGEM so taken for what it's worth. Anyway, if not heat wave results out of that... probably hearing insect saws with shirts stuck to moist backs either way

These/those results are difficult to forecast. Some LCL scenarios do...some don't... But, the shear profiles being what they are, that is interesting whether there is a coherent TC or not. A few posts ago I mused to Scott or someone that I bet the Logan sounding was already looking tropical WRONG I didn't realize there was a weak cold front passing through ... We seem to have temporarily laid in some dry air... BDL and ORH DPs are in the low 60s at ASOS which I was shocked ... It's actually nice out...not torrid or humid unless standing in the sun but that's different. Anyway, this frontal tapestry will either have to wash out or lift back N and will given the modeling ...so that does also enhance a bit of warm frontal positive rotation kinematics... That's separate from the TC or TC remnants that Ryan tweeted howester... Perhaps there are two period to watch...

I like Ryan's observation of the exit region of that massive jet structure that is both velocity and directionally diffluent as it fans over central/NNE... Really, anything that has UVM that happens to intersect that region near the Del Marve to the NY Bite region is likely going to get a significant upward assist. It's an interesting point I had not considered. I was thinking this system was purely embedded in a large synoptic transport pattern ... laminar and deep in the troposphere from the Bahamas all the way up. And that being so weak to start, then translating partially eclipsing the coast as it gains latitude - if it were up to these factors alone, I would definitely be averse to the notion of this being much of a player nearing 40 N... I'm not sure how that fairly unique circumstance he points out with the jet/larger synoptic fluid mechanical layout may feedback. If this thing doesn't get more develope/re-developed profile soon, though,...I almost wonder if that set up isn't a weak spinner swarm anyway -

Yeah the Euro's specifics on this were abysmal ...particularly when it was 3 and 5 days back ... comparing those run times to where we are now... no doubt. Still ( and it may just be dumb luck! ) the Euro's never liked this thing. This thing has never liked 'this thing' Those two observations = the same thing... a paltry result. That's all I'm saying - That aside ... we have to remember that the Euro isn't a bad model ...hello. And, just because it kept this thing on life-support too long and had to finally "find it" in the physics eventually ...doesn't mean it will be necessarily wrong going forward.

The models were forecasting the increasing shear though - that specific aspect should not come as a surprise... I mean, if one chooses to use the models. Despite that, why then did some models attemp "re" intensification ( more like intensification at all...) as it was moving parallel or on the coast? After acceleration commences... that might be a response ( internal physical processing) in the models of having said acceleration lower the storm-relative shear. This sort of 2ndary profile sustaining if not some regain after recurve is observed at times in the past, particularly those system running out SE of NS over the G-string en route to England ...sort of collocated ... They could be moving along at 45 mph at that point, and regaining cane 1 status... I've seen this a lot.

Mm.. in terms of "relative error" ..I'd have to give the nod to the Euro tho - so far and overall The NAVGEM - which ...shouldn't exist as a "model" ...but just to make the point - has had a couple runs into the Category 2 range of EC abrasion all the way up. Which is intuitively laughable anyway, but using that as the upper bound... the Euro on the other hand, while being just an open wave at times taking this into the Gulf Of Mexico, does sort of win by virtue of just being weak in over all integrity ... This thing has had a low shear, high oceanic heat content since it was 800 mi E of the Windward Isles ...and it's just coughed like an old Jalopy all the way up ... Sometimes these things take a bit of reanalysis to figure out - Whatever the reason, the Euro seems to get credit in my mind for general reticence to commit to this thing...

Oh, the official guidance designation is over land ... at our latitude ?!

Exactly ...my sentiments. I am not sure what those modeling/wind products are based upon - I assume some sort of raw gridded imputs off the various sigma levels, then adiabats as a start... blah blah... but you just get the "feel" looking that decompressing pressure pattern and losing standard intervals so rapidly in many guidances ( not to mention, that behavior fits this system's history)... while only being 990-ish in the first place. I've seen people play Golf with wind prospects like that. I joked last night that this thing might glide over like a decoupled/detached see-through frisbie ... It floats over head and people look around vaguely aware for hearing it go by - I don't know...right now it's a busted blown out ravioli ... In fact, though it is probably just an artifice of hiding in the hi res vis loops, it almost appeals at that vaneer like the SW quadrant isn't even closing into the arc anymore. This system is a single curve wind band on the NE quad... just at first glance.

Yeah... agreed - give 'im credit for trying, tho. Heh. but yeah no this is a very deep barotropic air mass... I bet the Bahama sounding over Logan at this point. In fact, I might have mentioned this the other day, that there were semblances in the runs for a "Bahama Blue" pattern ...and well, this is essentially it. Or at least it will be 24 hours from now. I have also opined in the ancient past how it never seems to be that a TC is actually around in the exit region of that jet down S but rats bid if we don't actually have that circumstance ...sort of. Usually, it's a lucky timing issue with a transient trough over WV and a retreating ridge the captures ... Carol and Hazel..etc Donna I think all were not really BB patterns but "got lucky" ?? I think 1938 might have been a late season BBer based on testimonials and accounts of a "...Week of sultry humid weather..." before hand but who knows. Anyway, probably it's just a matter of getting two rare phenomenon to land on the same date, ....like it's twice as rare. Oh if one is a dramatist they prefer it to be a category 3 hurricane and not one COVID coughing its way up the coast both too slow and two week and technically ... not even on the right trajectory to even remotely justify 30 f'n pages of coverage ... but, what's the alternative - right But with ...whatever form this thing has as it moves N, it will be anomalously embedded all quadrants inside a rather sub-tropical transport all the way up. The phase transition may be delayed over climo because of that. This is mostly going to be a failed momentum in the first place, then losing warm water as it fringes land. Even the Bite waters are nearing 80, ...albeit shallow, but really... That's a 'nother thing...I've often wondered if a Cat 4 ever turned the corner in these modern times ...while it is 80 F SST at buoy/station 44025 ... As a tremendous stroke of luck to civility I suppose, the climo for LI express is after Sept 5th ...when we've already shed 5 to 7 F off those shallow numbers.

This things gliding over like a big see-through frisbee ... disconnected and decoupled

Unless people want it to ...and then it "seems" to edge on the side of physical defiance ... sending grad-students to paper anomalies - or by the matrix engineers reasons after the fact and alters reality to maintain the illusion of randomness

this may be the worst circumstances for the weather-model cinema reliance there can be... nothing but denied faux dystopian drama, ...culminating zero reward, followed by a banality on a scale that challenges the very endurance of man - ...rip off, then driven to ennui insanity. Nice - the irony being? that is dystopian. in a Fantasy novel ... this is like the soil-side of a metaphysical providence, one that requires your time to nourish its self, and these sort of rewardless expenditures therein are like the fruits of its garden - and this year is a bumper crop!

that's also 20 mb shallower than the runs this time yesterday placing 960's low there by the UKMEATHEAD this thing's had nothing but tribulations and hardships getting developed all along. It'll probably do a Bob now and RI its way to Cat 3 just because I'm typing this...but, barring the kosmic dyldo having fun ...this is probably getting absorbed in the flow of 15 pages of imagnation - you know .. it's interesting .. it seems that every model has been at least partially right, while none have been correct about the evolution of this system. the Euro has never really like this thing and has been reluctantly playing catch-up to even the consensus blend... And while it presently is still stronger - even as an exposed wound - then those open wave Euro runs from a couple days ago, ...the fact that it is well short of other guidances, which had upon occasion had category 1 hurricanes, seems to give it some respect. so in contrast to that...the more developed variations were right to be less conservative - they just went way overboard.

Wow... I was just looking at the 00z Euro's coarser synoptic progression ( 24-hrly intervals..) over at PSU E-wall... and noted that thermal ridge bulging up along and astride the eastern seaboard at 48 hours ...and immediately I thought, that must be a sneaky very torrid day on Monday. So, I went to Pivotal and looked at the 2-meter DPs and they are indeed between 75 and 80 ... in the Euro! A model that - at least from my experience - tends to be dry in the BL ... man ... meanwhile we bathe, the 850 mb overhead is 19C over Worcester nearing 00z, Monday evening. Jeez, with DPs in the 2-meter of 74 to 78 F all over SNE... ?! zomb...

https://phys.org/news/2020-07-canadian-ice-caps-scientific.html