Typhoon Tip

These different radar depictions convey enough different "panache" as to serve a distraction for me. As Will pointed out, there is 'sucker hole' in an arced band quasi stationary back in the CT that looks filled in on some radars - ...

Pretty much... This was always a SE threat (primary) but as the past week's worth of dailies and pages of threads and media et al speculated, there was clad conjecture as to whether some of those concerns would get farther west. It actually appears that both did and did not happen ... The did part is that it snowed in arced bands down to N Jersey... the devil part of that deal is that it did not snow at "threat" proportions. Which is interesting.. The N-S oriented deform band over the Berks appears to be a bit west, as was the activity around NYC/N Jersey. But, by and large, these are not headline sensible impact regions. So yes and no. 3.5" 30F 3/4 M vis S- with some minor blowing

12z NAM has this maxing out for impact right now through 4pm or so BTW... has the western deform falling apart over the next three hours... and a new one pulsing to life back here in central zones...before it to vanishes to shreds and flurries this evening... that's sort of step down in general complexion I'd have to say... We'll see. Also, rather than a westerly low position - which may have wrong - it appears the rad presentation may actually be reflecting the 700 mb circulation.. .the surface low is actually slightly E of 70 W near 38 N.. which is where the NAM has it on the 3-hourly position off the 12z .. so not bad actually.

Been watching rad closely... Intense band pivoting west got to about eastern Worcester County and went poof in like three frames... S+ (most likely) in that band down to rad signature consistent with S- ... It's probably going to be this over the course of this affair... thus the topographical layout of snow totals will have max SE then narrowly with that deform axis out west. About the latter... I don't believe the models had placed that feature there in prior runs ... that's interesting.

Yeah ...most of these radar loops really want to suggest the low center is ~ 90 mi S of BID ...which is definitely west of modeling, certainly at the very western edge of consensus envelope if that's verified. I think these 6 to 9 hours are critical to the total evolution of this thing. If we get the center jump east out to a new low near the triple point axis of the lengthening occluded boundary then the previous head scratch solutions have merit. If however, this western low center - which frankly is already a slight bust in my opinion - remains more dominant, than the phasing evolution (which has only been non-committal and partial to date) may also be a more fluid determination. All that said ... doesn't really matter. I have personally been obsessing over the fact that the governing synoptic evolution so favored phasing...yet failing, that the reality of this storm ginormous girth and mid level mechanics bowing so far back W was getting less attention; but is probably the same damn thing sensibly to a small storm making a closer pass. So what difference does it really make? not a lot.. .I guess for things to "make sense" ...it would be more settling to see this western solution work out... but, seeing as it has already to this point at least a little, may also be an acceptable compromise. So...some philosophy to go with some obs. 30F ; 3" 1/3 mi vis S

Pinball: "TILT!" "TILT!" "TILT!"

I should research the X scale ... many of these scales are not linear - they are logarithmic. For example, every 10 mph > than ~ 75 equates to ~ 2 X the wind force. Earth Quake seismology is the same...the slope is accelerating in the positive direction. Is it the same for X classifications? -curious

How do you come by that assessment exactly - No, unfortunately... neither clause in that bold sentence is true. The only thing here you said worth reading is 'there is literally nothing else to be discussed' With your vast superior frame of reference on matters, you finally did come to startlingly undeniable conclusion. Congrats! and who the f is Dave ... You child. This site and it's antics mean nothing ... get over this and your self, will ya? holy crap.

Yeah ...in his defense, I was just trying to propose a base-line idea that a Kp 5 was probably not likely to be seen - but he spun off on some validation crusade where he's smarter than me, which may very well be the case ( ) BUT, interestingly enough, was the ONLY aspect of that conversation that was truly irrelevant .. The Kp is basically just when the geo-magnetometers detects at given latitudes the ovular ring is assessed based on real-time detection - but it's an interesting secondary question re the "vibrant" intensity of it ..

You stated, ".. Bz is more than -20 so we're missing a great show. ..." It may have been a bad assumption but that sounded to me you were bummed out about it being day-time. Sorry. Whether it is relevant to you or not... fact of the matter is, Kp of 5 would be stressed to see it at our latitude even on a star lit night. That index measure doesn't extend to our latitude - I don't see how that is irrelevant. Nor premature - you should probably learn some tact. I'm not some rube in this area of near -terrestrial physics. I fail the to see the logic in how those post could be construed as either irrelevant, or premature. Those factors and concepts are central to the phenomenon science for f sake. jesus

It doesn't seem you do. But, that's fine - I tried to explain why "you were not missing out" at the time you made your post; but you seem to be evading that explanation for whatever reason. to each his own -

I know what it means... And I know how to use it. If it's only a 5 max, you may not see it around here, anyway, so you're "not missing out" - that was the point.

I wonder if we are, though - The "auroral oval" on the web-site has a big gap in it over on our side of the hemisphere. New England to southern Greenland is effectively 0 on that particular product. Besides, the Kp index is really what we should be going by...and we usually need a minimum of 6 to start seeing it via longer exposure recording devices. Presently it is only 5 ... So, gaps and fives ...meh. That may and probably will change as the full onslaught of the CME continues to impinge upon the planetary system ..yadda yadda, but for now, we aren't missing much if daylight is the only limitation. It's centered on the other side and is of lower storm strength at this time. We'll see how things cook heading toward evening...

http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/26/africa/kenya-pope-francis-trip-main/index.html

Which side of the pole is the annular ring/oval... ? Last thursday was the 156th anniversary of the Carrington event. Just sayin'

Shouldn't have been so 'amazing' frankly. I realize I am but one voice opposed to a shrill din of bandwagoneers .. but no, 'been pounding the "NAO over rated drum" for a number of years. But hey - the only way to heard is to published so, taken fwiw - The EPO domain space and its timed relay into mode changes in the PNA, together serve as the primary cold loading patterns over N/A. The NAO is merely an assist, but not required. People pull statistics out of the cherry tree that show that x-y-z years were negative NAOs when more snow occurred, thus the natural conclusion is a-b-c. But no, ..that is all more likely because there is a weak negative correlation in the PNA/NAO relationship. Such that a rising PNA tends concurrently with a falling NAO over the longer term. Retrograde events do take place from time to time, but the rest state is west to east... NAO doesn't dictate snow events people. In fact, a "statically" negative NAO is a suppress flow exertion and that causes perturbations in the atmosphere to dampen/shear. The NAO may have positive last year on the whole, but I bet you dimes to donuts it was fluctuating up and down, above 0 SD, as the PNA/EPO were doing their thing.

One thing that's always stood out in my memory as interesting about that '92 storm was all the consternation before hand regarding p-type and where.... Yet, when all was set and done, not only did snow win out in most places (given time and dynamics depending) but the temp was into the upper teens in a lot of those some areas of interior eastern zones. That's not just a p-type and subsequent snow amount bust... that's busting with some serious panache! 17 F ??!! hello -

...oh man. After this up here, an advisory wouldn't even be noticed... People would be out running around in short sleeve shirts in relief if they got an advisory. 'Thank got we've improved all the way to an advisory -- now we can live normally again!'

Long way to go before that can be tested... I just saw a 12-18" graphic...

I have a hunch ... these cut-off histrionic historical hysteria storms... when the cut off, that gives a solid 12 hours for bands to move farther SW than modeled. Tends to happen. We'll see...

We used to call that the "double E" rule, back whence the NAM was called ETA... and was a better model, ironically...

Rad returns in the MA and S of LI have abruptly begun a west drift if not movement, and I'd argue that the 700 and 500 mb sfc are in processes of closing at this time. They will only deepen going forward. meanwhile, heavy band approaching the Cape and SE

HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR A CRIPPLING/HISTORIC BLIZZARD IMPACTING S NEW ENGLAND. NEGATIVELY-TILTING H5 TROUGH THROUGH WHICH MID-LEVEL ENERGY INTENSIFIES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SE OF NANTUCKET NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK NE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY ALONG AN OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE ENHANCED BY HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED N ACROSS E CANADA. CLASSIC CONVEYOR BELTS BENEATH H3 JET COUPLING AXES OF RRQ / LFQ YIELDS STRONG DIFFLUENT MOTIONS ALOFT. LOW VERTICALLY STACKS / FILLS BECOMING CAPTURED / STALLING BENEATH THE CLOSING LOW ALOFT RESULTING IN A SLOW-MOVING / LONG-DURATION STORM. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OF 40-50 MB IN 18 HRS. ALREADY ONGOING AS LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE INITIAL NEGATIVE-TILT AHEAD OF WHICH THE BAROCLINIC-LEAF STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT. LOTS OF OFFSHORE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY INDICATIVE THAT THIS STORM IS GETTING BEEFY/INTENSIFYING. ITS BOMBOGENESIS BABY!

- CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD - SERIOUS LIFE-THREATENING STORM / TRAVEL DISCOURAGED! - 1 TO 2 FT OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SNOW-BANDING - WHITE OUT CONDITIONS / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITIES AT TIMES - STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND - MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION Hell on Earth... okay, got it. That's all you had to say, the scariest place imaginable.

Now cast is upon us... Shed little weary tears for wayward solutions when the wave is about to curl over your head. Stunned at the 12z Euro tho - wow. Model of choice do to the lesser of evils.. Daunting too, with it's point 45" numbers in SE zone; somewhat hearkens to 1978 which pummeled i that region particularly hard (NE RI ...) One of the more fantastic baroclinic leafs I can recall: