Typhoon Tip

... yeah...it's definitely interesting...

Well...be that as it may, the graphical presentation being perhaps a week behind other sources... The dailies depict illustrations that clearly still put 2019 ahead of 2012 as of August 8 from the same source as that graph. one, it will be interesting to see the graph update... heh.. But two, I've annotated and it's pretty clearly obvious ...if said graph is based upon anything resembling these [crude] cartoons... it's just as likely to update still below the 2012 curve..

Do y'all have some access to extra-double, top -secret data that is different than this ...? Cuz just from where I'm sitting... 2012 is getting it's ass handed to it - I dunno.. you tell me. Yeah some 'gap' closure there but t-heh... that integral ain't supporting any kind of angst that we'll have trouble ousting 2012 in this 'race'

You know ... not to make light of this ...but it's funny how we are proverbially bargaining with cumulus cloud shadows to prevent ice loss ... heh. But yeah, it's actually true - when we are teetering at the edge of the 2012 comparison...that closing margin does get sensitive to intra-weekly perturbations passing through the the domain. Fascinating actually -

thanks

Source?

Deniers deny because they can. That simple. If a person is standing on a train track and there is a one-eyed headlight monster roaring and rumbling metallic horn blowin' warnings at them ...they'll be less apt to deny how standing on said tracks would be detriment to their well-being... The problem with Human response to this crisis ...particularly as it relates to the slowness and/or stopping the denying "idiocracy" ... we simply cannot hear, see, touch, smell, or feel AGW or GW or whatever comfortable or uncomfortable euphemism there is that labels what's going on with the planet. When that happens, the denying will stop. But for the interim... it's not in a guy's living room... It's not stopping them from driving to work. Taking their kids to Soccer. Going on that family vacation... sitting around and opening presents on Christmas morning ( if that's your bag...). All there is are dire warnings that attack the ability to engage in all that... A human being... which billions of create this thing we call Humanity ... never react to warnings. They only agree to them in principle. What resonates is pain - it has to register as an inconvenience to the corporeal senses... That's perhaps an evolutionary catch-22 ( as a digression...) but, we have evolved now the ability and ingenuity to improve survival chances ...beyond ecological balance.... Which Terra-forms this world whether we are intending to or not... and...more likely toward a realm that is no longer going to sustain those same advancements. That's the C-2-2 We are capable of these advances... but the capacity to predict and anticipate consequence for action has not kept pace with the powers of ingenuity. In the mean time, it's a nice summer day out there ...and that's the validation for the warnings - good luck.

Firstly, I'm not sure the social-media community in this particular web destination really IS of the 'wanting/wishing' ilk ... I'll just expand on that a little more... but it was really a 'just in caser' Imho, should 2019 somehow by excruciating number crunching ( less than obviously ) fall short of 2012 ... was it really worth all the effort and writing...and annotated graphs and monitoring and ..well, basically obsession? We are not "making sure that happens" - by plying that effort. I can understand statistical accuracy but I wonder if the real motivation for doing so lurks behind that excuse, because the bigger, longer term consequence of what the world faces is so dire right now that to do so ...could not be any more futile. If it falls short, nothing's different. Why then? The longer vision, we're still f*!&ed folks. As far as that article... There's a lot of complexity that is not really discussed in that... In a general scope and concept it's not "un-clad" exactly ...But, there are ... synergistic effects that are 'emergent properties' and aren't really predictable... More over, those can have secondary ...tertiary spontaneities too... The blocking idea can come from other sources: First, ... extinguishing planetary wave/dispersion into higher altitudes. Think of it as where warm advection plumes go to die. The vagaries of R-wave undulations over time, can create episodes where/when warm fluxes cause/contribute to tropospheric blocking .. These are ephemeral in nature... If they persist ( causally ) it's the underpinning pattern that's supporting it.. The NAO domain is a good teleconnector to exemplify this.. It can fluctuate at intraweekly time scales because of this sort of transient phenomenon... And is why seasonal predictions for that teleconnector - heh... good luck. Second ... blocking anywhere from that can happen in any era. Third, ... it is not abundantly clear that GW would in fact promote more of that to happen, because ... it's all still based upon gradients. Without gradients...no air movement exists at all. From that very fundamental requirement of physics, working together with gravity over a curved surface... without the first initial requirement of changing PV=NRT from one point to another...not of this, in fact, this conversation, can happen.... Why is that important? Beyond the obvious ... the arctic also is said to be differentiating warmer/faster than everywhere else... Is that true in the middle troposphere? If so... than the gradient is not necessary increasing because of GW... but, I suspect it is anyway... The arctic is just trying to catch up ...and in the interim ...we are witnessing extraordinary jet speed anomalies and have been now over the recent decades. Flights between NY and London...also across the expanse of the Pacific have registered historically fast ground-based velocity speeds in that time. This is happening because the warmer equator/sub-tropical latitudes are storing more water vapor ( concomitant with the GW ...) and fiddling with the math ... that is keeping heights slightly elevated; pressing ( as it were) against seasonal nadirs in the winter. Even if they are warming...they are not warming fast enough to compensate for the ambient steepening of that gradient that exists between ~ 35N and the 60 N girdle around the hemisphere. This creates the hurried velocity saturation being observed... Lastly ... folks are forgetting that we are still moving through the 11, 22 and 300 year temporal super-position of the Max(min) solar. Those times have been correlated strongly with -AO tendencies... That makes it incredible difficult to untangle 'how much' of blocking is a result of warming arctic ( as it relates to GW ) - vs how much was destined to take place as this solar expectation has arrived and we transpire through... I suspect like everything...there's shared forcing there... ** The gulf stream stuff and the AMOC - that's a whole 'nother ball of wax. The warming in the previous ... probably going back to the early 1980s is when it really started... has been adding fresh water to the surface of the Atlantic... That's been accelerating particularly in the latter half of that multi-decadal time span. At some critical threshold the specific gravity has changed too much...and the buoyancy gained in the aqueous saline waters (at a given temperature).. slows and/or can stops the sinking water process... No sink = no drawing surface water N = break down of the Gulf Stream. This was theorized back then, too... We are ( more likely so ) now seeing this being measured in the environment... Altering the transport of warm surface waters to higher latitudes certainly would effect circulation tendencies through the various meteorological circuitry over time...and time being a variable in climate - there we go... It's a mind boggling array of countermanding forces and whatever is left after canceling out ...dictates the systemic character.

It seems there's an underpinning 'agenda' to keep this year elevated above 2012 ... I guess for the sake of records? I'm curious because I'm not sure why we are so preoccupied by finite distinctions and what those mean to specific records, when the specter of what's happening over the last 20 years is far more telling. I would certainly hope that no one is coveting or even abstractly taking comfort in a acre less melt if it comes to that... In any case, last week I mentioned that the heat wave in western Europe was modeled to plausibly affect Greenland and now ..headlines to that effect are indeed foisted. Granted CNN, https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/31/europe/greenland-heatwave-climate-crisis-intl/index.html , ... tends to spin toward aggrandizing in any attempt toward ratings that turn the gears of their media-profit-machine ... we'll just have to see if corroboration surfaces ... I believe some acceleration is likely though. The deep tropospheric heat anomaly effectively severed, formulated a high latitude blocking node ...and that feature has since been retrograding toward Greenland. Still carrying along with it actual warm thicknesses within the anomalously tall H500 isohypsotic surfaces - in other words...a balloon of warm rich ice-sheet melting air - I was wondering if this may enhance the seasonal melt rate. Seems to be at least according to CNN's dystopian formula - The question is, if so ... does any of this also effect an acceleration of ice loss in the total arctic?

There might also be CV activity to follow over the next week ... The MJO is weak but circuiting through the right side of the Wheeler ... and as typical with those wave spaces, the 200 mb velocity potential not as negative ... in fact, modestly positive between the west coast of Africa and 55W. As of the 27th the 200 and 850 mb vector analysis' had modestly hostile/sheer orientation. Today being the 30th...that's a fair amount of time to have changed those metrics. I'm not sure what those are now, but... SSTs/integral heat content is nearing apex, and given to the MJO and those velocity potentials ...those stress mitigators may be lessening here. Meanwhile, a decent cyclonic momentum has recently been ejected and presently is wsw of the CV Islands. It's broad and needs a lot of work ... Saharan air/dust appears for the time being to behave in it's climate zone N of that area. Just in the off chance ... I gotta say...with the AA structure/bias to the hemispheric circulation we are observing as a persistence this summer season... that doesn't really probabilistically/intuitively lend to the notion that this is a good season to carry a TC 3,500 K miles west. For 'cane enthusiasts ... you want more longitudinal flow types...with less N-S-N wave undulations and less blocking at mid and high latitudes - the preponderance of the latter indirectly effects said probabilities, because when there is a lot of that, ...we tend to TUTTs and weakness in ridges.

Europe's recent heat wave is pinching off a warm secluded ridge node and is modeled to slide west toward Greenland. I'm wondering if that may bring warming conditions to the terrestrial interface/boundary layer

GW as being a fallacy: objectivity elided/forced by an opposition that is more likely incapable of perceiving consequence for their stance - 'else, they would not do that. The reasons for that inability are varied from individual to individual, special interest group to special interest group... But by and large, mostly because the specter of what it all means is probably just too untenable within the vaster multi-facets of society, and would not resonate based on verbal warnings alone. However, written on the epitaph of Humanity's headstone, "this is just a fad concern". The human gestalt has never responded as well to threats that are vocal, ..which, compounding, the early efforts to do so attacked the institutions that have procured multiple generations of successful living ( by and large ...) - very bad PR. Compared to when the perception of the threat is corporeal in nature? If a threat can be seen, touched, smelled, felt, or tasted ... people move out of the way. Even now... as the measurements are arriving in clear, coherent datum ... Pompeiians tried to run - when they could finally see it... For everyone else, it would most certainly be abhorrently stirring to deny what was scienced decades ago...and is verifying in the Global environment today. Akin to being warned not to grab the red hot poker... grabbing it, then attempting to persuade people it is not really hot - the onus of persuasion really falls on the other side of that debate at this point if anything at all.... The correlation to the ending preposition - related to global warming - is more likely true than not, given all science on the matter. This all hearkens to a separate issue having to do with modern technology and conveniences effecting perceptions. People are being protected by the former, in such a way ...a bad decision here and there...is no longer resulting in as dire of consequence for a miss-calculation. Integrate that culturally over... it's not helping the AGW--> consequence model in a positive way. As my professorial circle of associates and I have discussed, ...this is as much a sociological crisis as it is a physical sciences one - and until the former is equally addressed... the solutions for the latter will be partial at best.

I don't deserve any credit - I repeat ...no credit. Mainly... because I did not cobble together a seasonal forecast late last summer/autumn. What I did instead ... was drive-by snark post pot-shots at other's gallant, back-of hand pressed to forehead over glazed eye efforts. I mean... veritable Master's caliber dissertations, replete with advanced word processing and state of the art graphical annotations... and me, blithely and assholier than thouly reducing them in two flippant sentences. Nice. That's the way I roll - Kidding... still, I distinctly recall warning contributors often enough, that gradient saturation, a paradigm shift that has occurred since ~ 2000 and continues to become more destructively interfering as the decades click away ... is muddling the climatology of longer termed multi-seasonal teleconnector packages. The ENSO relative numbers and how they have come to correlate ( hypothetical/supposition ) in the past, .... don't work. They didn't work in the powerhouse mega ENSO ( warm phase ) several years ago; and in fact, ...papers were submitted and peer reviewed successfully noting the startling lack of correlative impacts Globally by one of ...if not the, hot ENSO events ever recorded. ...etc...etc... It becomes less likely ( intuitively..) that minoring standard deviation events could impact the circulation of the Global very meaningful, when the massive momentum contributors, could not. ( I have physical hypothesis why that is, too ) I for one am frustrated by GW/climate change...and the continued reticence to even acknowledge that we are living in times that are increasingly rendering all heretofore correlative expectation-sciences ... less than germane. Perhaps not entirely ... please don't read this as absolute. As we know ... the gears of the environment are lubed by balancing forces ...So...threshold and partials are in play at all times...such that result sets both do and do not represent suggestively... At times, demonstratively so, at others...seeming to have returned to the prior expectation...and so on and so forth. But, given the longer time spans...eventually the new paradigm does take over - we're not there yet... But, I do believe that veracious attempts, from the ranks of aficionados that are fortunate enough to have been born and live in an era that provides them any sort of pulpit at all... ( where social media's "peer review" process is tantamount to popularity politics ), to the exulted societal offices of the science... I'm sensing we are all being bamboozled by our own lack of consideration to the changing paradigm that for some reason... no one considers when they engineer their expectations. So how do we do it? Don't... It's irrelevant. I know it's an interest area... but the sad reality we've come to is that party favor seasonal outlooks are a distraction to the real dystopian storm on the horizon. In 50 years... approximately mid way through the big kill-off ... is this going to matter? ( more snark relax...but, ) if we turn to examining seasonal variance as it relates and is pertinent to the Global crisis...that has some substantive value in it. But hell... this is an open forum to the public hoi polloi...and that's not hand-cuffing students to their desks... it's an entertainment/hobby past-time .... and entertainment and responsibility ... mm, usually part company.

You mean like this ... https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/14/us/greenland-sudden-ice-melt-wxc/index.html ...course, it is CNN -

Mishandling the MJO ? ... like the distribution of upper level divergence ?? Heh, seems the GFS does this every May though... I wonder if it mishandles the MJO every May... Actually, it seems to me the GFS ( and GGEM for that matter ) both start curving the isobars cyclonic over the western Caribbean too often beyond 200 hours, regardless of month anywhere between April and early December - you may be right about the MJO but I also wonder if it's just an artifact of those particular physical models way out in time, also. In any case, the prediction is near normal for this year.... They're predicting "two to four" (whatever that means...) majors canes, which presumably mean 6 or so total... and 12 sub cane TCs... blah blah but, these numbers didn't mean shit in 1992

7" here in NW Middlesex country ... Just made the winter storm warning criteria ... heh, the 8th seed in the NBA... "National Blizzard Association" playoffs Now 38" on the season at mi casa

Heh... this was too well advertised and also empirically too larger in scale to fit with the 'little critter' concept - Bozart et. al. unless you just meant that for colloquialism

It's interesting looking at this (time-sensitive?) image provided by WPC ... Just how much of this thing is entirely produced by mid-level forcing, as anything associated to cyclogenesis appears quite suppressed... Weak low east of Del Marva, with a track trough situated ENE, doesn't scream in favor of the low positions offered by many guidance' I saw leading up - looks like the low position its self may bust S ... just estimating. We're actually closer to the high pressure centered near western Maine; while we brow rub over the northern extent of snows... I'm almost surprised it is snowing as much as it is from PVD to PLY where that band even exists, probably owing to the mid levels smeared NW. For me astride Rt 2, with that fog-snow (yes some aggies ..) But.. this whole structure at mid levels did have a negative elongation as was modeled in the blend so... yeah, they did okay there. All and all, feel pretty satisfied. The last entries last night seem to have verified rather nicely as Weatherwiz and I mentioned... This was slated to be a narrow corridor impactor, hauling ass! You may even be lording over your device or PC in a gray ambiance between noon and 2 pm when suddenly ... forced illumination glows the room. This is an interesting time of year... In the heart of this thing, it's deep winter by appeal. When/if the sun comes out two hours later and the wind stays light, the faux nape warmth that Kevin gets watery-eyed for, along with heated interior of his car ... really does provide two disparate perceptions that he often waxes nostalgic for. We'll see on the latter... The sun angle is climbed enough that a shallow saturation absent lift can evaporate below a weak inversion more effectively than it would in one of those the wood-smoke afternoons of early January. Anyway, we also said that sat and rad can be deceiving. It's interesting that both seemed to work out... The results this morning appear to be a blend about mid way between the high res ... plug pulling toaster party late last night, together with radar looking too neggie and ending up perhaps a little bit farther N... As was evidence(d) by the content dumped into this social media between circa 8pm and midnight ... this thing was a worse performer than what is taking place, while also still being somewhat more compacted S. Interesting

F - !? Not the dreaded minus F. Pay attention folks. Very rarely is there a winter actually worse than a failure. Wtf does that mean, F- haha

I was just going to say… Extrapolating radar doesn't snow north of New York City. But like Will and I were talking about earlier's radar and satellite and stuff can be deceiving. We'll see

mm... k, buuut... there's some large more super-synoptic scaled arguments I've had all along in mind, that sort of keep/kept me from being too bullish. I could see it going either way - still within margins of error to go only 50 % of consensus totals, and due to the endemic uncertainty with an inherent "needle threader" system and exact course and banding, having weird strike back gashing from HFD- to BED I could see that too... Barring the lesser likely, though, this "should be" a narrow impactor, hauling ass like bats leavin' hell. Translation timing alone playing a limiting factor as well... Compressed, high velocity patterns limit impacts to narrow regions... doing so with middling over all mechanical strength has left me scratching heads to find where 6-8 " come from but again,.. margin for error is bit higher. The MESOs could erroneous for convective handling... yup, but ... maybe they should've been to high in the first place.

Filter turned off again ...? j/k.... good luck with your forecast

Speak of the devil... James just saved the day! ahah

Careful I've done that before, too ... go to bed feelin' really good about Sat and Rad trends, regardless of whatever disappointment was being evaded on my way to slumber... only to wake up wonder how in the hell said Sat and Rad didn't parlay better... Sometimes those loops sorta kinda like lie? you know -

'Been just sort of observing ... ( lost interest due to my perennial checking out that typically happens in March ...don't take it personally. ) It seems there is/has been a tendency to collectively lean toward higher amounts reviewing many pages in this thread. Then the subtle surprise when x-y-z run cuts back and, then a-b-c model suggests more and we forget the x-y-z... I just wanna add, I don't typically see big amounts from fast moving open waves... particularly when the wave its self has almost vague mechanical signature in the flow. I think some of this nearer term run-up attenuation of the development profile (talking Satur...), may be realism and correction pushing back against the above 'leaning'. On the other hand, just about any permutation in the Earth's atmosphere since about 50 years ago ...is going to have more moisture at its disposal ... so, comparatively weaker kinematics can ...I dunno, add a couple tenths or so... That's just fact - water output from island showers near Fiji, to enormous tempests in the GOA, to categorical hurricanes in the Atlantic... to thunderstorms in WeatherWiz's backyard... everywhere, the atmosphere is empirically holding more moisture and rate results are up. Not sure how much that facet should deterministically add to this thing, but, it's just to say that the same synoptic evolution in 1919 doesn't produce (probably) as prolifically as it does in 2019.. Worth a consideration... if only for a little more. The other aspect I'm toying around with is the "little critter" phenomenon - which is a euphemism (don't panic ) for when a seemingly innocuous perturbation in the flow goes flippin' nuts, which happens regardless of 1919 or 2019, too... I don't know this qualifies, ...I don't think it will ... but, most of those positive bust types take reanalysis to figure out why. You know, I saw Bozart's presentation back in 1997 when he first coind the expression to describe those head scratch six hour long S+er's out of nowhere... as I also recall the system he was using for his presentation. It was fascinating... 10" on a west wind along the pike and SE Mass is the ultimately left-fielder... Pretty sure it was Feb the previous year. Anyway, different story different time no analog.