Typhoon Tip

Ends up essentially unchanged

GFS looks a little more robust if anything early on

I saw 5 mb shallower and negligible differences - irrelevant - track changes

Real migraine … or just a bad headache

I'm inclined to agree ... this situation is different. I mean it just is... stepping back and looking at that trough, it's hard to imagine all that consensus having a different configuration pathway. It would be easier if this [ probably very ] rare scenario, for the correction vector to go away from the EPS mean. I think technically the operational was on the western envelope? That might be a "yellow" flag

I mean heh ... it read like, " whomf whomf" eyes rollin' back in head hahaha

To me this is a relay of forcing, which nets to keeping the track similar if not spot on the previous run cycle. The gross, the track would shift E, but the subtle relaxing is actually allow cyclogen parameters to max more. So the east is then compensated by a deeper slightly west feedback = the same position by a mb or two deeper. It really is the better for it for snow enthusiasts. Sometimes... we get lucky when threading the needle

Threw you a 'like' here but I just hate sacking the EPS inside of D4's ... Even if the EPS goes on to fail in its outlook ( compromise, notwithstanding - ), there's not a whole helluva lot of precedence for that. Suppose it does capitulate the the GFS - it's already too late. I don't think I can recall it ever doing that at less than D4

so the GEFs is a couple mb's deeper per interval. Mean position indistinguishable from the previous cycle. The member consolidation is even tighter. Sufficed it is to say, this 18z Euro rendition is going to be rather interesting -

It's likely effected the NAM solutions more than any. I went over this earlier but paraphrasing ... tomorrow nights frontal wash is stalling out there between Bermuda and the GA coast by Sunday, and then this rolls up underneath - the NAM's hole-punched QPF layout in the 18z is a moisture starved system; it seems to be delayed in recovering the air mass post that front compared to the other guidance. I'd hunch that if it could sniff thermodynamic gradient availability, we'd have two meso models with similar depth and rage And it may end up getting there yet.... just delayed - we'll see. But the sensitive scenario, overall, is also related to the intense compression and high speed. These factors make for tough modeling times translating mechanics through a field that is significantly absorbing/masking the S/W jets.

48 hours the RGEM is 998 ROA area... 60 hours, 982 in CC Bay. that's 16 mb/12 hrs. Bombgenesis not bad. 18z GFS comes in a tick deeper fwiw -

good hit of the smack, huh

Not likely, because it would mean less entertaining model solutions so probably that prevents the compromise -

Is that a new headline criteria? I'm not sure I've ever heard of an "Extreme Cold" watch or warning ...but it's got a region half the size of Texas in a watch.

oh I know what that is... Look east of the Carolinas at 42 hours. It's very proficient with convection out there and it's ( I think ) exposing what's been going on with this model all along. It's been having trouble locating a low level baroclinic field ( enough ) west of that axis, which it may be over-doing anyway

yeah what is that. I was inclined to think that was just tech glitchy but how and why.

Yeah, both Will and myself mentioned the NAM was trending since yesterday. This is incrementally another trend step - almost collapsing toward the "anti EPS" consensus. Man, this will be really satisfying watching the EPS capitulate

One way to look at this ... ... if the GEFs/GFS and the like were to be say 80% more correct in this battle, that would square the season. Because the EPS mean seem to win 80% of the argument on the last coverage.

yeeah.... it was funny and jocular 5 years ago - use someone elses name. It does become a problem when you keep singling one person out. Francis

it really is ... I mean, it can't manufacture any event at all, for like 300 hours ... I time span in which in maintains the greatest baroclinic gradient in the history of this planet nothing It's really rather remarkable -

Actually ... that's like anyone starting a thread 7 days out and having people that don't know how to read, immediately interpret it as though it's a storm projection - when it's merely discussing the table setting. There's no problem with starting threads 5-7 days ahead of a "period of interest" to discuss why. "Look to this period of time for x-y-z to emerge because - " If it's a declared a high confidence event thread, that's a different coverage and purpose.

oooh yes we did c'mon Kev think back

Yeah shit. man, seeing the Euro cluster this way, it does shake my confidence. I had been warning all along that this would be a shorter term correction nightmare. Spent all that time talking about the compression handling ... recall " < 72 hours" ? But I admit to thinking we might be coalescing the consensus short of 96 hours earlier. Seeing this though... I don't know. It could be one or the other wins, or some percentage of either in a split of the goal posts. I was not sold ( still not ) on the heftier impact scenarios tho. That same compression should really theoretically cap this thing's potential. I just didn't think that would be because we get flurried -

That's how you know we're gonna get thwacked - We did an analysis back in UML and found that there is a positive correlation between dissemination delays, vs subsequent verification of registered impacts from an event that's in play. Not sure that's still the case ... and back in the day, 1990s, modeling was still not a huge sample size yet ... so probably mostly for fun. But to this day, whenever we don't get to see a model run because of a comm's related issue, I cannot help but feel better about our chances. haha

The 12z ICON evolution offers an outstanding compromise, either because it's doing a good job, or dumb luck - either way, that solution doesn't look terrible if you throw everything into a blender and pour a cup of forecast