Typhoon Tip

Don’t let it ... this kind of chatter starts every year shortly after the solstice ... gradually it reaches a fever pitch around mid October when winter forecast start ending society in an apocalyptic cryosphere ... ... and then of course spring rolls around with post mortem analysis over what went wrong .. gee we wonder what

00z NAM is roasting eastern mass Sat now. 95. Mixing level quite high 80 for a low brick mortar and street environments

This was a very well advertised back door air mass ... I’m actually impressed the models handled this so well

You guys are funny you can’t take 30 hours of a cool anomaly and it’s really not even that ridiculous we were 74 here for a high today 78 yesterday I can understand you guys living right down the shore within 10 miles of the coast like that because you’re getting right into the marine flow but it’s not terrible out here in majority reality

Saturday sneakily turning into one of the hot days too I know they’ve been advertising Sunday through Tuesday but you might as well throw Saturday into the kettle looking at these numbers it’s gonna be about 94 all across the metro west of Boston around Hartford Connecticut down in New York City with increasing dewpoint

That is really impressive watching the Nam raise temperatures through the 70s Friday night I mean that’s got to be hard to do it’s not like it’s rising thru the 50s into the 60s it’s rising through the 70s

actually... it may be 90/97/92 in this run cycle...

Yeah..the model run ( Euro's) owing to the precarious nature of trying to run a heat wave through here when we are literally right on the fence of the westerlies like that... In this run, we don't get the heat wave. We do get the one hot day in Sunday... That said, I'd be leary of this returning in future guidance... It's been waffling anyway and this run is almost keeping that discontinuity ...continuous - if that makes any sense.

Is that list all time ? ...as in going back hundreds of years

Fwiw .. 12z NAM is pretty hot on Saturday PHL-BOS... with T1 of 31C in PHL offering a plausible 2-meter slope to 36C down that way, and 33C Boston ... we're already as of Saturday in the 92 to 97 in F standing outside the Chamber Of Commerce/City Hall in those cities at least in the NAM But here's the thing... that's almost antecedently required for Sunday to have a shot at 100... Probably PHL to NYC makes it anyway...but we need that 93 with maturing 850 slab moving overnight into Sunday morning...such that there's a high launch Sunday morning...

Oh ...the flat 500 mb flow at our latitude makes all of this uneasy and precarious... I see/admit that right off... I want to see the 12z for continuity because ... I could see this just like not happening - zero circulation orientation latitude to play with on this thing isn't sending confidence shimmering through the event prospects...no.. But, if the Euro's allowed to verify...

wow... I was focused in the nearer terms ( through the end of the mid range...) as I should but still...that extended GFS from the 00z ( D9/10 ...) actually makes the Sonoran/W heat ejection lending to Sunday/Monday's heat look like a little brother... Wow... nearing 28 C passing over Lake Superior en route to NE on a WNW trajectory would probably be all-time absurdity territory... But, ...it's D9 so - ha

thanks! I mean to get more confidence - let's get the 12z consistency then pull that trigger? I mean shit...it's an important phenomenon .. at least to me. I've always thought that deep cold and high heat were just as ominous and threatening to civility and should be recognized in the fab four: lightning, floods, tornadoes and hurricanes [ big heat, arresting cold ] ... You know, I remember in the late 1970s through the 1980s, the early early days of mass media weather's real meteoric rise...they used to have this "Stockman's Advisory" ...it was available everywhere, but more frequently and notably it was implemented where ( duh ...) there was livestock and farming concerns... But, in Chicago, ...1995, that became one of the more deadly attributable weather events in history, with many people dying from heat exposure - why the f is this not a thing? But...hell...it's probably not so much an issue in either sense, heat or cold, given to modern environmental controls and ability to see it coming ...etc... so whatever. It's still a notable thing if it's worthy yeah.

Extraordinarily hot week for Boston is plausible if not likely in that operational Euro synoptic evolution... The only thing preventing a daily high of 91 to 99 every day from Saturday through Thursday (and bias the higher end...) would be impossible to pin down swaths of cloud perturbation/ convection debris ... which as per that run, most days are > 70% uninterrupted insolation. Otherwise, that is one of the cleanest big heat looks I've seen along and N of the 40th latitudes from Chicago to Boston... With four out of those six days mentioned having 850 mb temperatures exceeding 19C ... Sunday in particular has a shot at 100 degrees in my estimation. If those parametrics verify ... climo rotisseries from around HFD to Metrowest of Boston cook. Period. Particularly if that BL wind can avergae > 240 degrees ...Logan itself will bathe in Boston city proper's dumpster fire smoke... 22.5 C at 850mb compressing down slope out of the Capital District? I guarantee you, those posting machine numbers of 94 to 96, unwittingly ( or wittingly..) spinning this as merely having HIs of 100 this weekend would be doing this set up a disservice... I could see that making 101 or 102 ..DP depending.. I mean if we pig's bum our way to 75 DP ...we probably cap at proper human core temps The GGEM is lot, lot colder however ... with synoptics clocking in with a 100.9 and 101.9 respectively... The GFS is, as expected, the cooler of all three... But even it has a nice SW/W heat release signal at 850mbs... All three models have an expulsion of BL to 800 mb EML/kinetically charged air layer coming across at perfect timing...12z Sunday -00z Monday time frame,... with the GFS showing a NE CONUS regionally engulfing 850 mb maximum right at 8pm Sunday evening from Ohio to Maine and along the coastal plane down to D.C.... That means that the mixing level penetrated through that level, so... even with it's max T's looking more 20C-ish at 850, it's probably getting hotter than that adiabat because the BL is taller than 850 - not uncommon to stretch things in higher heating potential and this is one of those set ups... Caveat emptor: clouds as mentioned... This is a bit of a different look in transport... The 500 mb deep layer hydrostatic layout is rather flat-ish looking ... It's flat, but stable nonetheless, with even the GFS finally stopping its antics with introducing permutations in the flow that rasps the heat from ever getting NE of Pittsburgh. *BUT* that west middle tropospheric flow with SW winds transporting heat/DPs up underneath does offer a subtle MCS instability look so... that'll be lingering. This should almost be extracted and used as a thread ... I'd like to see the 12z suite... because if this looks to repeat, this could be memorable hot day in terms of regional envelopment...Where PHL-LGA-BOS-PWD all have chances simultaneously at 100 F on Sunday ...oh 4pm ... and it's somewhat rare to see that. It would be pretty historic and may in fact be anyway if all these sites 98.9 anyway... What is interesting, also ... is that this is back to the original signal from six or seven days ago, when the Euro put up this sort of thing. It's been pretty stubborn... the other models have really invented more reasons not to get hot... The 500 mb height layout has slowly modulated flatter, but the 850s and other lower tropospheric parameters/synoptics seemed to have returned... Maybe the flattening of the 500 mb sent the GFS/GGEM looking for cooler kernels...

I meant normal as in not terribly unusual yeah colder than normal duh Maybe one standard deviation below normal which is like what we call “normal colder than normal” if that makes sense

We've been inside the box of this air mass for 18 hours and the tenor is awe at our autumnal plight or something... Talk to me 2:45 Sunday afternoon ... days like today are normal

in any case... might be a fun nerd spreadsheet to put up the ranks of T/TD spread ... I'd do it with my shimmering life and all but heh, I don't have the data to begin with - it's an hunch that as the DPs rise... the tops start to lop but I wonder what the greatest combo was. Probably hot saturday in '75? but wasn't there a pig bum's air mass in the 1940s

Yeah..I think that might be right at the edge - those events perhaps... Even over those Iowa cornfields in 2011 with that overcooked ham air mass and those 84 F DPs they were only putting up 98 ...'course that's a HI of 120 million but... The juggernaut heat events tend to be lower DPs.. but not always.. If the day dawns 80 at Logan with a west drift and 22 or 23C at 850 and nothing on satellite denser than llv bio mist clear to Chicago, you might make 101 over 73 by accident of a commercial air liner's jet plume wafting past the tarmac..ha

mm..maybe yeah. The Euro's inside of 5 ...and even 4 with Saturday being 72 -84 hours at max heat, and that model's rep/verification is pretty typically harder to beat. That said, it has taken some hits in the last year... Again, again again...it's an outlier with the Canadian and GFS more pedestrian ... Hot either way, ...a matter of how much so. Even in these lesser models it may be 93

You didn't ask me ..buut.. it's hard to set a 98 over a 75 at our latitude ... We kinda need it to be June 15 to July 1... otherwise we aren't getting quite enough solar input to heat a theta-e rich column to that temperature. We can...but it takes a lot of help. Not saying much ..no. If it's 96 over 69 your still jammin your head up a pig's ass just sayn'. I don't think it's ever been 100 over 75 around here ? Will or someone with stats might know..

Euro heat: Saturday 12z has ~17 C at 850 mbs with a PGF orienting the flow from the WSW... It's W at 500 mb ...so is deep tropospheric flow. RH is less than 50% at typical cloud hgts so it's good bet for a very warm day that maximizes... Also, there is some indication in the isobaric pressure pattern for a lee side thermal trough along the interior coastal plain from SW Maine to NJ .. That's usually a 'smoking gun' ( pun intended...) for maximizing the BL ... because that means lift/buoyancy is lowering the sfc pressure, and given the other synoptic parameters the only source capable of doing that would be the heat. So, it's probably 85 or 86 in ORH at 3pm and 93 or 94 at ASH-FIT-BED-HFD ... Sunday dawns set up for close to redic heat. In fact, even at a slightly lesser realization on Saturday than that interpretation above, ..say 84 to 90... Saturday night is high confidence very high night time low. This has been the verification bias ...for about 10 years actually.. but, this season in particular, we're doing above normal stretches on nightimes anyway... Still high sun angle roasting the ground and moving a kinetically charged EML right over top over night isn't exactly sending shivers down anyone's spine ...That's probably 76 for a low at Logan and 81 at LGA... something like that... Then, we we might see 90 by 9 on Sunday morning. 850mb/EML conveyor swaths over the region with continued < 50% RH at 700/500 mbs suggests open sky in a superb heating potential through mid day.. Bottom line is above 90... and probably 94-99 with 88 at ORH or even 90 there... Monday dawns with a similar scenario and we probably race to 90...but, baraclinic zone and whiskey cool front timing for late day probably puts cloud debris and convection in the way of maximizing highs... SO, 88 to 94 steam bath with some DP gathering ahead... Anyway, heat wave signaled.... This is pretty much all that's left of that historic heat signaled 5 days ago for that time range... The other models are not as emphatic...and in fact, the 00z operational Euro was still the more amplified version compared to the EPS mean - which I haven't seen for the 12z ...but, if it should decide to edge back a little toastier than perhaps we can start to plan on a heat wave. Being inside of day 5 ...and having the day 4 and 5 be reasonable extrapolations from day 3 offers some limited confidence. Not sure it qualifies for excessive per se...but it that Sunday has the best shot. One caveat emptor: The west wind at 500 mb ... have to watch for MCS/debris at anytime running along flow there. Probably silly to comment much beyond that D6 ...

It doesn't matter if the SSTs and thermocline numbers are high or low, relative to some longer term averages ... if there is no gradient in the field to trigger a physical response ... those 'super ninos' don't mean shit. It's just this simple: a +2 standard deviation of total ENSO in 1900 has more mechanical power to force a signature in the system, than it does now because the gradient now between that +2 and the atmospheric thermal source and sink is less. LESS = less restoring force ... Less restoring force = less response... There's still a tendency to look at these fields in deference to whether they exist or not ... As though, A exists thus B should result... 'A' cannot merely exist...? If it exists...it is doing so in a constant fluid gradient relationship with its surrounding, at every instant of time in a perpetual balancing of forces... That is entirely the machinery in Nature really... everything in nature is attempting to make the difference between point A and B, 0. When A is less different than B... there is less movement (acceleration) to fix the differences... The atmosphere is entirely guided by that exact same fundamental physical principle. Whereby, that 'acceleration' is observable in subsequent pattern forcing... If A is huge...but B is huge, one cannot merely look at 'A' ... What really needs to happen is that a metric that is the standard deviation of the actual gradient needs to be calculated - not the the SST SDs alone... Unfortunately, the gradient is a dynamic integral ...good luck

Told you CPC would have to knock down the tenor for "excessive northeast heat" for that D 5. The Euro pushing back constantly toward and beyond D6's is really just it correcting it's own amplitude bias as it ages those frames in later cycles... That original excessive bold percentile claim is/was set to begin tomorrow...when it will be 59 F at dawn and smell of low tide clear to Springfield Mass...heh. Maybe not so extreme as that, buuut...there's no deep tropospheric heat signal available to the northeast - to wit, we assume that to mean New England in this context. Frankly ... there is heat over the continent - it's not for lack of supply and demand. It is, however, a delivery problem... I actually give the models a bit of a break on this one, too. They were correct to see the subtropical heat expansion scenario. That much is evident both in the hydrostatic heights and the hypsometric thicknesses permeating south of ...~ 38th parallel across the continent... etc. But, what's happening above that latitude is the arrival of an unseasonably strong polar jet that wasn't really part of those original ensemble visions of a week ago.. It's sort of insidiously albeit relentlessly gain presentation from the N .. slowly correcting and pressing the heat south on every cycles spanning some five day's worth. I'd also give more of a nod to the GFS operational than the Euro on this one, too, because the GFS was always tending to ablate the heat dome's N arc ... running vorticity and jetlets over the top preventing as much liberal polarward migration of the warm 850 mb conveyor... Contrasting, the Euro's correction schemes may seems to emerge a negative performance with that model, one that I've come to find is more express-able over North America perhaps than other quadrants of the N. hemisphere ( geophysical circumstantially). What it does is tends to fall back to whatever signal it happens to be managing at D4 ... turning the page into D6 ( as does it's EPS mean, too) and then runs away with whatever remains - which unfortunately for it, that means it tends to look over amplified in the extended(s). It's the antithesis to winter, why there's too oft D8/9 phantom east coast bombs with the Euro. But in summer ridging ... I mean you look at this, ...it's kind of hard to run a heat transport to the 40th parallel and beyond ...with that giant grinding jet and power R-wave structure in place. If one has a modicum of real Meteorological and climate wit and wisdom about their ability to analyze, this is anomalous flow for mid summer. Orienting in parallel some 5 to 7 hydrostatic lines circumnavigating such definitive R-wave construct for mid summer - frankly, this is the summer variant of the jet velocity saturation issue that was observable in recent winters... It's taking a gradient saturated hemisphere in both cases, just that in the summer,...less so. I've seen that kind of R-wave signature and velocity balancing in February back in the 1990s... Rare, and it takes a relaxation period,... but it's f'n July. This should not look this way... Moreover, whenever the models may relax that N jet structure even a little bit, right away, we get more heat...so it's like precariously we are on the fence.. and noise will dictate which side we land on...

In more ways than one... considering that going above normal is the new norm in itself. There's a kind of cultural adaptation/acclimation going on with folks, because we are +1 to +3 since June 1... Logon is 0 for July ( 14 days worth is a pretty remarkable achievement idiosyncratically, actually...) but otherwise, we gather a "typical" impression from above normal. A true 0.0 month would be bitching about cold anomalies - heh... interesting.

Very similar synoptically to the cool down over a week ago. Weakly low scoots seaward but this one has more actual surface high