Typhoon Tip

yes dude! that is huge, the hudson bay 'marine heat wave' ...which, going forward may prove less like a heat wave and more like point of no return, but we'll see.. but yes, i was noticing that this year in particular, but in previous years ...retarded recoveries in late autumn

you didn't ask for this op ed but ... i began to opine, about 15 years ago, that we seemed to be losing ability to sustain marginal cold (relative to climatology). the evidences of this were nuanced in the early years - probably less detected or noticeable by those with heads buried in the proverbial winter sand. but mixy events began to 'flop' over to wet more than they used to, for example. or, like today ... when extinguishing a cold supply we burst high. we were becoming increasingly more reliant on 'direct feed,' otherwise, the base-line is above average; just a matter of how much or how little in this latter aspect, which is wholly guided by the pattern foot at the times ... this last week is an innocuous sort of example of this. we had an upstream in time and space, -epo cold load. said load effectively 'drained' from the mid latitude continent (used up for lack of better phrase) and we are immediately now finding a way to a 57 pig day. 57? ...it's 54 already. which enters a subtle addendum to all of this. usually we also go above guidance by at least decimals if not intervals of whole degrees, too. we may touch 60? i haven't been paying too close of attention to the day's synopsis because there were bigger fish to smack us across the face with ( while counting what we get to fry haha ) ... maybe this is a cap high anyway ...we'll settle back to just being above normal tomorrow by some unnoticed amount, but it will be above normal until we get a direct feed. Feb 2015 obscured any discussion to not happening, because it was 10f for three straight weeks or something ludicrously negative - but really ... that stretch only made my point. it was an unrelenting hugely negative sd epo/low amplitude +pna that intombed us in a reality avoidance about climate - the more i look back at this last 20 or 30 years... i remember discussion about how the climate zones, moving inevitably north up the eastern seasboard, was promoted with dialogue about how you won't notice when you've crossed thresholds - you'll just sort of notice one day that your fucked for ever getting back to your nostalgia. well ? if the shoe fits. i spend time in the mid atlantic every late autumn since the late 1990s (...fam/holidays..etc...) what i've experienced, particularly the last 4 years, is beginning to remind me of morristown nj. it's almost spot on, really. my sister, "...yeah, we get cold ... maybe even some snow, rarely. but it's gone the next day and two days later its kind of mild" sound familiar? struck me as so when she said it.

this week is a comical folly we get a juicy fast moving wave about .5C too warm for any sne snow, then ... whiffed by a coastal literally within radar scan of the coast late in the week = no snow for xmas consider yourselves served!

did you put your slip and failed recovery fall on instagram yet ...

all the wormhole portals by the alien sentinel drones opening and closing is causing temporal ripple effect in the local space.

in a below normal month no less ... ho man. the chapping of asses is priceless

telecons don't look great for winter enthusiasm heading into january frankly ... the wpo/epo are solidly switching modes in the outlook and the positive pna starts to collapse after xmas. it tries to maintain a modest positive aspect out there in the deep range.... but that's all there is to really stop this bus from driving down a different road entirely. believe me, we've been fortunate - as bad as the payoff has been - to this point. should we lose that n/pac arc, and then say if the pna goes neg ... you will be shock and awed at how bad this winter would be. 70s in jan in a cc attributionist's fantasy, no problem

the ggem is snowing xmas morning

well... there's still a handful of other guidance that looked more encouraging - i guess we auto sans those in lieu of the bipolar rage ? lol just kidding. yeah, i don't think the euro is going to be very wrong inside of 120 hours. i'll give it one more cycle ( this evening) inside it's 96 hour wheelhouse. it gets rare really fast for it to be wrong enough to make a huge difference, particularly when this has large field problem in this run. i mean, those have to be fixed before looking for nuances to help out --the western ridge sucks. --the field doesn't respond quickly enough after the mid week thing leaves

i thought he was serious ... i don't disagree with his "sarcasm" either way. it was close. the next step would be to see the flow out ahead of the s/w, as it is nearing the coast, begin to back aloft. ...show up as some bowing back west along the isopleths that extend ne from the trough nadir ...etc etc that s/w ridging is happening because of latent heat exhausting off a b-c leaf, which actually getting something to happen here would be hugely helped by that actually taking place -

right, and my point was ... if there is going to be a shift aft of the previous, the gfs is prooobably going to be the last model to join in, in situations like these where it seems that speed in the flow is conserved

this whole situation has a pube's width of tolerance, while the gfs has a pube of progressive bias over all other guidance - i've railed on about this hidden aspect to the gfs for years, and still detect that as being the case every non and again but different discussion.

yeah how did y'all do down there ... i saw a ton of bright banding on rad at dawn just s over the sound but if .. figured a couple on the n side of that ?

ggem is snowing light currier&ives style xmas morning

this is probably ultimately a pointless use of energy/bandwidth haha, but, inches of snow endowment provided by the gods of bomb masculinity doesn't mean anything if the storm doesn't know how to use it. in other words, the actual impact has to be there. like 20" of 33:1 pow pow is not nearly as impactful as that much snow at 11:1 .. you know? i think the actual impact needs to be where the definition is made from

yeah ..part of why this attenuation game this time reminds me of that. i also think the boxing day s/w came into the denser/physically realized sounding medium as a stronger wave than the assimilation, too.

fun aside for a moment. i really think that wholesale s/w movement through the field - if that can slow down, this has time, and the larger implication-backing would promote going to town. it seems the modeling history over the past few days, when it slower to eject out of the west, it seems to 'sync' with the non-linear wave function and that gives it a constructive interference - then we get the amped west solutions. when i say that, i just mean the large scale/ pna amplitude reaches max around the same time as the s/w is actually entering the trough. if the s/w out paces this former timing aspect, you get these flat pieces of dung

well... it's all a bit semantic/euphemistic and definitely subjective anyway, but "biblical" ( imho ) has to end civility as prerequisite to earn that particular declaration. that's what a 'biblical flood and fire' is derived from - now ...what does 'end civility' really mean? i'm not saying a single storm could ever Book of Eli humanity... so, within fairness and confines of reality, ending civility in this context should fairly be construed as crippling all affairs down to a stand still for any significant length of time. if that is acceptable, then the magalopolis storm of jan 1996 might qualify. the super storm of 1993... definitely the cleveland super bomb and the feb event 2 weeks later in 1978 ... there's probably a couple of bigguns back in the day, of course ... basically, every 50 year block of history probably has a short list of them. the preceding is an attempt to bring something other than fan mania to the definitions -

ah Jerry ... the soothing voice of a kind, forgiving encouraging father, as well as the committed educator - unfortunately, it's going to take a longer time to get over the punishing abuse of countless thread titles with animated arrows pointing to the word "--> blizzard <--" before a graduation from the university of bundum can be conferred

never include the navgem - period as far as the nogaps... meh. we used to call it the 'gonaps' model back in my university days for a reason. but maybe there's been some kind of extra-double top secret pentagon upgrades that only the navy's commander and chief and one or two turbo nerd modelers know about -

yeah ... tongue in cheek. i'm not sure what the navgem model ( seriously ... ) was really invented for. i think it's a 'frankenmodel' - kinda like the old dgex days. i used to love the dgex model. talk about a methadone clinic! storm going away in the guidance? no problem - just open the dgex and it seemed to always dependably take whatever it had on the nam at 72 hours, and manufacture like 10 closed isobars out of it. not saying the navgem does that. but one thing i know it seldom ever does is accuracy. i get the feeling though that the model isn't there to make us "happey" (heh) no, but it might have some specific application that's not intended for general operational forecasting - not sure. it's speciated out of the navy's "nogaps" model being somehow fused into the ggem if memory serves - if that was some sort of random experiment ( otherwise ...), it's time for it to go away, either way.

right ...then we have to fight the fact that the nam always has a nw bias in the western atl basin beyond 42 ..48 hours. lol haha can't win

ineedsnow ... you really should not be thanking anyone for that guffaw model

yup, typically with this model ... it's what 'not to do' - example, the 06z solution did not do what the 00z run did.

heh... here's one model no one probably ever even looked at .. the navgem. the 00z solution gave a 30 hour nor-easter with about 3" of liq equivalent in mostly snow