Typhoon Tip

ma-han ... jesus, looking at the operation Euro, sometimes I think the model is somehow, either by design or super-natural intervention, engineering ways to stop heat from realization around the policy makers of D.C.

yeah.. uh, big heat's happened as late as the 2nd week of September, but the return rate is rarefying quickly past August 15 - we slope. can we do it, yup! But, this next larger synopsis is a similar trait and behavior this summer, where non-hydrostatic heights balloon to ceiling extents in the models, but the hydrostatic ( 500mb 'thickness' ) seems to be sucking up the heat in order to get the DP up into the mid 70s/+anomaly. What has verified is what it is...but that's what the appearance of the modeling behavior has been to me. I tend to agree with Brian, based on that above propensity .. then adding in the climate slope, probably we do high night minimums, then drowning afternoons in theta-e weighting down the highs into the 80s. Might end up with the biggest 10 -day +anomalies of the summer, ha! j/k Notice the 500 mb non-hydro height anomalies over the TV while the 850 is modestly cool there ... it's a weird repeating theme -

This is total bullshit... If "Fred" is a fuggin TS that thing NE of Bermuda's a category 2 hurricane, then -

Great snark take! however, the issue is really much more a momentum problem? One that seems to always come back to that age old observation: Too much population. It's a threshold exceedance - Suppose 750 million is a hypothetical 10% of a total planetary population of industrial farters, that cannot diverge from the "save the planet" movement or else said planet will not survive. A total population that then swells to 8 billion, now that lower bounded percentage exceeds that 750. At that point, the lower percentage that continues to fart, represent a sufficiently large negative impact on the miasma that is choking the world. Not just for us by the way. As an aside, the Biologists attending the proverbial summit are waving their hands to be heard and no one is picking them for a chance to take the podium. It's like, 'Hello,' she knocks on the mike loudly as it triggers a high pitch whir over the speakers over head. She exclaims, 'WE ARE NUMERICALLY IN A MASS-EXTINCTION EVENT ALREADY..' One that may have begun around the time of the Industrial Revolution, but has insidiously gathered its own momentum while all these other aspects of this 'Anthropocene' epoch are being prioritized and analyzed and popularized ( although too slowly in the latter). But there's also another issue couched in there ... It's elementary to visualize, really. There is more difficulty in getting larger populations to motivate change compared to a smaller. That adds a T variable to an equation that cannot take a big values of T, or else that equation will = 0 ( uh...we need that hypothetical math to = 1 of course ) Like, take 100 people. If you need to motivate 50%.... how hard is it to fill a large conference room for an afternoon with a coffee break and complimentary donuts en route to getting them all on the same page ..etc. How hard would it be to do the same with 8 billion. duh. In other words, it not just a mass of toxicity arithmetic, but a piggy-backed is probably an unattainable sociological one because that lower percent drag-population has too much weight. I think it's too late. Not sure - or doubt really ... - whether that can be pulled back.

The heat appears over-top in circulation manifold next week.... We seem to have that kind of Kelvin-Hemmy thing going on again, where there is broad anticyclonic curl and the top loaf of circulation lobs over top - particularly seen in the 850 mb thermal layout is where this is forced/ best observed. Interesting.. I've seen this more frequently since the earlier 2000's, probably owing to faster polar jet zipping over southern Canada. This configuration seems to strand/pool the OV-NE regions in a disproportionately cooler 850 mb temperature region ...compared to what is typically seen in non-hydrostatic heights exceeding 588 dm. Not sure we get much higher than the mid to upper 80s despite those geopotential heights. Meanwhile, it's not helping the those same regions are in a modest surplus of rainfall... The hydrostatic heights have a way of holding temp counter-intuitively down once past the solar max/later August. Bottom line, ...lot of 87/74 type miasma

Yeah ? what part of Europe, Australia and the Pacific NW should lead anyone to believe that historic climate is a confident metric going forward -

We were 74-77’s in DP pretty common throughout the lower Lakes yesterday and continues to be the case approaching mid day. Synoptically this air mass is the source for back east.

NAM is doing the same thing it always does in heat .. it shirks Logan until the last minute. I think Logan gives LGA a run for the money on this heat tomorrow and the next day, even though it's buckin' for a 3 F lower max

I'm in Michigan this week... We were 91 here southern lower Michigan yeserday, with 76 dps, and it was brutal until a splash-out linear complex weakened through but ( thankfully ) brought us out of Hades. It was close to 9 pm and 86/77. 72/66 after the trees swayed ahh This is your air mass... coming on a WSW/SW trajectory, and you may or may not benefit from the latter processing. I suspect it ends up being about similar to the June heat wave between the 25th and 30th looking at everything. This one actually has better lower tropospheric parameters by a little even; if up to that alone I'd figure for a 2 click MOS bust and 102. But that one benefitted from being within solar max, which we are passed. That, and hydro integration my keep the temp edged in favor of climo/MOS. If this was June 15 I'd say y'all be 102 tomorrow or Friday at least at one or two sites. Don't know about only 'warm' sun and dice rolling cloud patches in huge theta-e.

It is interesting that this is occurring despite the flow construct over North America. Personally I am not sure I have ever seen that/this... With a -3 SD, full-on R-wave anomaly rolling through mid latitudes of the Canadian shield, supplanting the flow into a broad trough actually [ not the 'ridged curvature' more typical at these sort of hydrostatic heights and 850s/EML type phenomenon ] between IA-ME. The southern edge of this L/W trough arc is actually expressing the 590 ( 590! ) into cyclonic curvature. That's strange. The EML remnant Sonoran release and the 850 mb kinetic plume are all passing under the trough like a submarine. I suggest this is an expanded HC example with a polar R-wave ( unusually amplified ) gliding over top the 40th latitude. Welcome to Tennessee ... The Euro operational was indicating this potential some 7 or 8 days ago. I thought it was typically attempting to offset a heat wave pattern with it's own modeling bias to amp - the two sort of situated in conflict when at the time/range it was depicting. Technically it may be arguable ... it could be a compressed ridge, but said polar westerlies, in which case it could be considered in both directions to be fair. But it's an unusual look.

"...there likely is/are aspects of import there. ." And, CNN does engage in rhetoric shock-jock headlines to bate clicks - yes they do... so, knowing that - it's up to the reader to keep that in mind. That's all -

I'm suspicious of these CPC derivatives ... It's complex, but I suspect the HC expansion phenomenon is giving them a boost, while this planetary wave # oscillates through. The inundation of higher non-hydrostatic heights are over-lapping/invading the lower domain/latitudes of the PNA domain, out over the areal expanse of the central/E Pacific is evident. Farther east, there is a balancing geostrophic forcing to nadir the flow E of ~ 100 or so W over mid latitudes of N/A; numerically that is a demonstrative +PNA. Things get interesting considering constructive numerical interference. You have probaby a legit modest PNA, but with an expanded HC phenomenon in place the two may be artificially inflating the numbers. Looking at the operational runs/versions recently, it may also help to explain a sub-540 dm massive, albeit transient, SPV anachronistically passing over the Canadian shield, while 594 dm heights astride the Mid Atlantic. That's unusual in August, atoning for the +PNA, but the whole construct is also displaced N ... thing a submarine diving below the depth-charges, the trough is deep in y-coordinate, while gliding over at higher latitudes. Consequently, we are feeding/slipping +20C 850 mb air masses under the southern edge of that trough belly clear to New England late this week. You don't typically see 21C at 850 in a well mixed lower troposphere over Albany during a historically +PNA derivatives.

mmm... and it'll get even more and more accurate in it's ability to do so if this ( typical CNN-hyperbole +fact) / 2 ...is even half right "That is due in part to the breakneck pace at which the planet has been recently warming, faster than scientists have previously observed. Since 2018, when the panel published a special report on the significance of 1.5-degrees, greenhouse gas emissions have continued mostly unabated and have pushed global temperatures higher." https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/09/world/global-climate-change-report-un-ipcc/index.html

" 'We have zero years left to avoid dangerous climate change,' expert says " That's a CNN headline/ content sourcing. That needs to be considered ... but, https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/09/world/global-climate-change-report-un-ipcc/index.html ...once one has filtrated through the necessary incendiary rhetorical fire-suppression system, there likely is/are aspects of import there.

As of last check we're back up to 130 K c/d as of late - so she's almost half way correct already...

There needs to be regulation/FCC and crackdown. Journalistic Integrity and practice parted company years ago and it is down right audaciously so now. Corporations/people seem incapable of enforcing ethics upon themselves - particularly in the area of media. Instead, rely upon mangled interpretation of Free Speech to continue operating in bomb of equivocation, masquerading as fact, and with tsunamis there simply is no time to evaluate for by shear volume. The "IMC" ( Industrial Media Complex ...) knows this and leverages it so they can traumatize people even more into clicking mouses, swiping smart phones, or pinging channels on their TVs. So long as they make their bottom lines. In an ideal world - for me - there should be a taxation levied against all media industry for vaccines and healthy care. That's straighten them out in a hurry.

Through both indirect and direct geo-physical various circuitry ...the following article probably is more connected/suitable for this thread. Example, "..Complex interplays between the AMOC and North Atlantic sea-ice cover in conjunction with salinity and circulation changes have been proposed as physical causes underlying the DO cycles..." https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01097-4.epdf?sharing_token=qWMQcnRcVRZQmZ_yahYbd9RgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0ODQw4Na6S4LwvIIwjZ_S3NdBoG6pi8c5NBfIwoUKp1VK_OHHszXMnB3OMoyz8L8emOhG-hoDsJyn1YMubz_IampYbIRg_8P9vjnfIPPzRQwm6m9BfwEGfoLu0JsB4E2trSfyu4r947mOz1oZQlyxQxZLxaMkEINR4Wt7XEIrPrRkahci-lKgCSTZahFzlH7wM%3D&tracking_referrer=www.washingtonpost.com "...Here, a robust and general early-warning indicator for forthcoming critical transitions is introduced..." c/o above - I'd also point out that we in the field began involved in conjecture as well as reading formulated papers/science on the subect matter all the way back to the early 1990s. Really interesting embedded statements, like: "...Different lines of evidence from palaeoclimate proxy records indicate that Northern Hemisphere temperatures have varied abruptly at millennial time scales during previous glacial episodes, with corresponding changes of the AMOC between its weak and strong modes1,15,16...."

You know... it's another way among many - take a nitpick at which ever doctrine - in which the genius of the Constitution's language engineers, in order to formulate a code more free of ambiguity ... could not have in fact foreseen how technology ( and it really is a technological influence -related matter. Oh yes it is! ) would make so many of those turn of phrases increasingly obsolete. Ha! "Best laid plans" - seems like a whopper example for that aphorism. The 2nd amendment used for guns permeating society, ... the reasoning foundation for that Amendment mmm it doesn't really apply in the same spirit, nor a very realistic risk assessing in society/culture. But, that's a debate for a different internet fight. People can't just say, "I want to shoot shit and feel secure and powerful behind my weapon," can they? 'Cause... that's not the spirit of the amendments cause and writ; yet that's the evading truth of the battle there. Seems like Human's have this weird need to do that in every conflict: evade the truth of their wants and motivations at all times, then...asses if it's safe to admit, ...they reveal later on what it was they REALLY wanted all along. Here, how does the Government as a representation of the society population, impose sticking needles with a foreign substance into the arms of a 1763 philosopher's arm. Now that's an interesting case right there... I don't think there is much language anywhere in the constitution that leverages against unvaxxed, frankly. In fact, constitutional law "could" be interpreted as 2nd Amen invocation against the "Armed Militia" LOL

"....Prolonged close contact with others" - is that the new euphemism for that now ?

I've heard that 'Decapitall' can be an effective management tool for that as well -

This/that look's sort of been in the deck since last week's guidance.. yeah. it's occasionally extended east ... but hey! I'm in Michigan next week See, I'm like George on "Steinfeld" - I give up looking and that's when the peregrinations of life seem to miraculously just put me in a position for it. We'll see if she actually bites -

C'mon ... you focused on a parametric some 300 light years from the visible horizon edge of the expanding Cosmos on that one .. There was no way that was going make it from a D12 outlook, that many days, without emergent reality intervening LOL. you know that - And yes, it is hard to get an EML here that isn't at mininum polluted by meshing the continental miasma into it, or processed by other convection first, or somehow sneaking through the devil's gate of the perennial N/A pattern, which features a NW tendency over the Lakes that shunts it south. These are like 'white men can't jump' for us ... But once in while, one comes long like that odd-ball guy from Canada. And 1953 slam dunks. As an aside, it's why I think 1953 is probably the rarest return rate anomaly we've experienced since codifying N/A ( specifically ... New England) weather phenomenon into their respective OMG categories. I bet you it is slightly more % in favor of seeing a Feb 1978 blizzard redux - in fact I'm certain of that. You are in the wrong arena for the sport you like to play in - I've said this to you a dozen times, I know

Kinda both right from what I'm seeing from the Euro cluster - ... I see where Steve is coming from. It's not just the look of it, the 'music' sort of wants to resolve the next measure into a nadir flow over the Lakes OV- NE axis. Seems we are establishing that as foundation rather early... so we can snow by Halloween ..etc..etc.. That oughta earn me some likes from any web-handle with snow as a syllable. No sooner did the consensus arrive all set and square and settled that we would in fact flip August back to AN, that models seemed to choose that moment to begin a warm-august cancel-culture campaign... The EPS says the Euro has merit. As such, by D10, the op. version wends the pattern right back into the unusual, rather robustly amplified +PNAP ... ( look out Nevada, California perhaps up into Washington and Oregon for some dangerous heat again; and lookout the rest of the nation for smoke loading) The GEFs, while obviously rolling eyes .. does not agree so much with that idea though. Admittedly, it doesn't have persistence on its side. And I also have hypothesis as to why the Euro is doing this R-wave structured look at a time of the year when it is anachronistic. ...which is HC related + heat dome forcing geostrophic bulge in the west... forget it - But here's the odd thing, despite that thematic arc, the Euor does first time a W. N/A heat ejection down stream during the D5-6-7 under a trough that is high in latitude. It's like the heat is submarining the trough. I see this in that guidance a lot, frankly. Never tested it, though. But sometimes it does this where it gets a big heat 850 kinetic layer caught under a trough saddle like that... It's interesting. But, if so that's really a straight up heat wave this next Wed Thur and Fri, with the only preventative being cloud contamination. +20C at 850 at 18z each of those days with WSW or SW flow well established and no antecedent wash of cool air to cause light-wind difficult to erode out inversion shit. As an aside, I always felt some of those cool days in July benefited from that oddity. The 850s were out of line with the llv results ...kind of used rain to cheat the month colder than the thermal state of the atmosphere much of the time. Normal July sun would have been a mid 80s month. Anyway, that's just a nice solid heat wave look. More clouds is 88/73 ... but climo on clouds in SWs flow typically ends up better than modeled ceiling RH so it's probably more like 92 to 94 as a conservative estimate those days. Tl;dr for a mundane topic, I know.

wow...different universe of weather this morning.

It’s interesting how singled out SNE has been island off and shit stuffed like as sewage catch basin this summer. Seems like I’ve seen NYC and BTV sunny by 1 pm while ORH stays butt stuffed till sunset at least 10 times now