Typhoon Tip

It's getting more difficult to ignore the possibility that this drilling -NAO might have been over-sold by guidance, ...as so many have before regarding that particular index handling. It looks like there's a coherence emerging to race through a cool anomaly related, and in fact ...the NAO is being repositioned at this point too far E to really be > 50% correlation on our circulation mode here. It's still formulating ... but this could be a shorter stay before a seasonal bust out -

heh ... I was just taking note of these winter rectum readings in full sun, myself. 35/13 here at 10:15 in 90%+ sun on April 2nd. But, you know... hmm. I saw flurries in May at least 8 times since 2000 here in this seasonally retard geography, and also, ... 28 years ago at this moment we were buried under 24 - 32" of blue glory so fuggit. it's not that big of a deal. it's just typically useless New England spring

Latest GFS surges 564dm hydrostats to S NH 12z Sun.

probably not ... - that was just an example to describe how a fair/milder pattern can conceivably back in under extreme scenarios.

He's right in principle tho. If/when these NAOs become excessively strong, boundaries/cyclone activity may get suppressed so far S that regions of New England may observe improving conditions from the N-NE. You might recall the winter 2010 mega -NAO, and the big historic snows in DC-PHL region? It was warmer than normal in Maine and with sun in Caribou much of the time. That was a west limbed NAO on steroids ... Granted this may not be that, but in principle, our best hope for recuperating sanity is to A, improve from the N, or B ... have the -NAO be wrong in the first place. Possible because no one's considering that the NAO is the worst performing index per modeling of all realms known to nature... over 5 days away might be asking a lot

what? New England? warm sectoring in the spring, during a winter stealing base-line pattern lean no less? we'll have issues. If we don't, it's like a 1::100 return rate, relative to all. I suppose that's technically a non-zero chance, but I'd be leery of the least excuse imaginable to not succeed scenario -

hate to burst any bubbles of grandeur around here but it's still winter That may rub the spring/warm enthusiasm's the wrong way but tough shit. The natural Earth doesn't care about calendars or perceptions, or personal wants and needs and biases thereof... The pattern orientation and genera, along with 30s this and that, ... freezing at night. No, we are not escaped yet. I'd almost argue that if you could if you were to remove attribution, we would be snowing still - but since we cannot do that ... this is what a winter that won't end looks like, when it is happening in CC (there! that should piss off the most possible people's sensitivities by using a single post hahaha)

That model just relentlessly fights, the advance of spring

Just spiked to 60/57

I could almost see elevations from EEN to the lower Presidentials surging past me down here. I've seen these scenarios before when the cold is denser because it's saturated, and takes more energy to mix out... so we get a kind of "cold seclusion" - transient situation. But the models do have a bit of a llv jet - if we wanna call it that... and I've seen those also be remarkably efficient at scouring out at the last minute like 10 minutes before the CF, too. Plus, it'd be neat to see a leanin' ice storm by dawn, and crockus shootin' by dusk.

1921 was a bit of a unicorn - not sure it reached up that far in Maine. Back then there probably wasn't a whole helluva lot goin' on up there I'm guessin' so no exposure, but who knows. But interior SNE was demolished. It would be interesting to redux that sucker given modern demographic explosion while dependency on infrastructure and all that. And in fact, it extended almost to shore zones. Pretty much the entire region was dealt 2.5"+ accretion. Reports were as high as 4" of rhymed gray. Thing is, it was later reanalyzed to have had a coastal storm get involved of all things. Highly...highly unusual delivery method.

Is that late for Tolland standards? thing is, it's tough to know what that standard is, because Forsythias and some of these other low shrubs are more variable year to year based on whether they get goosed by early warmth

You'll be 60 by 6pm

up to 44 from 39 an hr ago... Sky seems lighter, tho still an impenetrable abyss - making progress. You can see the undercast on the hi res vis loop. It really does look like a white paint spill underneath higher filaments gliding over top. Like traffic passing over smudge on the highway. welcome to the bottom of the dumpster known as SNE April Griping aside, days are long-ish now with higher sun lingering at mid day enough that we'll probably start cleaving thru

assuming the warm front really gets N ...this doesn't look like maximizing the potential given the lofty DP relative to climo and ongoing miasma ceilings... misty warm sector spuge

I hate the way WPC has such a nice looking piece of shit inaccurate graphic for the surface synopsis... there's no way this warm front is n of the interior at this moment and this is their latest achievement in analysis

You will ... if you're hanging around 1800' in altitude, as the pulses of wind glide right over top this latex paint spill

This is the latest I've seen foliage green up indicators ( buds and stem greening... etc) in 10 years or more. I realize that some along the southern/SE zones are observing this now, but I'm speaking to interior up here along Rt 2. Usually by now, the random forest floor species have early opportunity buds and even tiny leaves by April 1. May as well be January 1 by the look of the environmental setting out there.

Lows in the 20s in April is normal in N. Ontario

May sneak in a fair Saturday out ahead of a fast moving low pressure... Could be mild sun depending. Sunday - for now - looks dicey at best. Typical spring-time warm front retardation smears cold rain and even ptype mixing in CNE... From a larger perspective ..there is a chance Sunday may improve in the outlook - it's day 6. There's time. There is an impressive ridge signaled; the models have been shirking the warm potential, then plunging the cold in when breaking the ridge down. Seems a bit biased but ...we've sort of been finding colder solutions since last October, so -

should go down in history as the spring of the gradients. it’s like 85 on the warm sides … 37 on the colds across every low pressure passing thru.

Where do you go to see ptypes off that product? I mean, I’m not even sure if that model’s very good to be honest - I don’t frankly see how it crossing the quantum uncertain principal/chaos threshold of limiting returns just because it’s so-called AI … unless somebody can explain that, it’s just another gadget. Still I mean, it’s another products maybe worth looking at.

A month ago we'd be talking the best pattern for winter storms the whole year... Not so sure on April 9 - 15th though... Probably just ensures cold misery

yeah... spectacularly warm pattern showing up deeper into spring now -

OH I've completely prepped myself mentally for tomorrow's barrel bottom abysmality - and kudos to the modeling tech ambit, which overall ... hasn't given anyone much reason to delude themselves for days of persistence with this set up. So much so in fact my attitude's turned to embrace it. Great weather nerding opportunity! There's going to be some pretty fantastic meteorological aspects of this weekend's affairs, both in the larger synoptic specter, but also what's likely going to be observed at the discrete scales. I mean, it is not inconceivable that the lowest 100 mb of the atmosphere is if anything cold enough along Rt 2 for icing, while NYC is nearing 80 F. This somewhat reminds me of the extraordinary differentials that occurred in late March, 1998. Unlike this time, that one was a real backdoor front. This, btw, is not that. The front is in fact laying down across pretty much my house, during today. It just doesn't ever go back N as a warm front in the present guidance mean. "back dooring,", in the sense of the verb, is more for whence the front then bends around and starts collapsing SW through CT during tomorrow - where ever that happens, they could doing a 70 to 38 F hour. Or, it's possible that the whole thing is back built more than guidance by 12z. Some runs, like the ICON...are south of NYC - that's not exactly climo unfriendly in late march with a +PP toting polar air off a Canadian snow shield. It's a nerd's extravaganza of testable aspect tomorrow. LOL I figure in the end, who cares. One fuckin' weekend ain't hurtin' much. Let it ice and sleet itself to a bullshit hide the season on March 29th all it wants ... Summer is still coming.