Typhoon Tip

pretty good naper going on out there. 52 with intense sun through purity blue. You can tell it's sub- March sun but feels quite warm only modestly less. The breeze is still just enough to offset the affect of fake warm bubble inside of a cool air, but I'd still give it a 7/10. The wind needs to be calm in moments to really get that vibe.

And it may be heading out the door on future run/means. we'll see... Thing is ... uuuusually, a larger hemispheric systemic change, like going from the cold inertia ( to use that phrase again ) into a completely new paradigm ( that happens to be warmer no less - ) take longer and the guidance will often enough bias on the short side of when that really happens. In this case? it seems a speed up is happening. It may be the solar irradiance/flux increasing ...not sure, but something is trying to speed this up. I noticed the telecon spread has -PNA now on the 9th...where prior it was -d(PNA)... so the -PNA scaffolding, when the NAO is statically positive...not sure how that really numerically supports the 9th. That 5-7th transit through the Lakes,... my guess is hoping that corrects E, because that one still has ( though slipping) numerical support.

Apples and oranges comparison really .. 2012 preceding February was almost as absurdly warm - not in scalar value but relative to climate. I can recall cargo shorts and just light sweat shirt sometimes tied off around the waste on Saturday mornings, every weekend that February playing disk golf. The pattern lead was highly conducive; just a little more synoptic nudge was both easy to get there, and probably likely given the inertia in the total system... This? different scenario entirely. We are going from a cold inertial state, trying to correct toward a new paradigm that removes that inertia. From a modeling perspective, there is 0 ( Z-E-R-O) logical usefulness in attempting to compare the settings of either year. We may very well flip to some sort of obscenely warm scenario... we might. But it would be coming from apples, not oranges. Or, we may end up with some lesser variation too...etc. I think for now, the better take away is that spring is coherently and undeniably in the present indicator outlooks. Just be aware that there is a higher ceiling also a part of all that.

sometimes I think planet earth created SNE just for the purpose of being an abandoned, cold misery cesspool -

Big time Labradorian anus pointed at us. Take that 00z Euro. It's not likely to verify as is, no, but just to use that to make the example. In a situation like that the warmth in SNE is very precarious. If that mid level orientation rotates even 5 deg in the clockwise over Ontario, that boundary will collapse SE down the coastal plain clear to NE Va. It'll be 76 F to 40F across eastern PA we'll be so far inside the rectum that it's not even close. Meanwhile, from orbit the pattern looks like we're breaking warm weather records to add to the insult

Anyway, telecon insists a significant change occurs ... the timing is the 10th and has been for like 10 days since this signal was very outer horizon, and is now 12 days... Still time to modulate, but, in that time the signal has only grown. The operational runs ending up around 300+ hours with that ridge in the SE and the polar boundary displaced west... warmer hydrostats flooding up to at least Boston's latitude might be an early detection from those sources, but it really is way too early to sure there. This all, so far, only useful to warm weather enthusiasts like me, who like to monitor the seasonal transition, for now.

Anyone with co-dependent "winter on models" issues, seem strangely impervious to that learning.. The dissertation quality postings regarding the flip over the last week? LOL crickets

the d(pna) is negative by the 9th... keep that in mind. If that delta is taking place thru the period, the correction will start neg interference as that time gets closer - recipe for damping a signal.

Well ... that can be true in the sense of 'contributory' but that's one component in a giant of machinery of forcing-sources. I guess I wasn't part of that conversation What you just said and how you said it, doesn't sound preclusive tho

Who ever made that proclamation in the first place. wtf does the West Pac do that directly does anything 12,000 mi away? that demonstrates an inherent lack of understanding if that was the rationale. Definitely high marks for creative thinking though -

typical spring event layout

ha... wasn't actually seeing that 12z gfs when wrote that but yeah I guess. it's possible

yeah maybe the 5th -9th if we wanted to hone into a time span. There's an interesting ( sort of ..) look there with a strong N branch moving by N, while there is a subtle split toting along a S stream wave...It's all like the last of the +PNA as it it finally soon collapses. Could be a seasonal exit event so to speak. last hurrah. Getting a 33" April 97 redux of course but that's a different thing .haha

Just reviewed the teleconnector spread from overnight. The numbers went next level for mid month. There's need to establish continuity ... barring that failure, the short version is that the total spread supports a very warm period. It isn't too absurd to suggest something more extraordinary could emerge in that ~ 15th to 20th period. Note, warmth is the most fragile of all metrics in guidance at extended leads. That is an understatement in March. It is also 2 weeks+ away ... so this is purely for early monitoring. Longer version, teleconnector convergence via multiple mass-field/domain sources. There is an overlap in space and time, when also considering the functional lags that exist in the correlating source/regions. Example, The EPO is very warm on it's own. The PNA is just warm. However, when you then combine those two, look for positive feedback amplitude. Meanwhile, the NAO, a metric I use more to assess the exit latitude/orientation of the westerlies across the eastern mid latitude continent, is lodged up at +2SD (~) in the week prior and sustains positive during these EPO(PNA) synergies. Thus, we're losing any way to stop a height expansion from occurring over the eastern continent, one that comes with an unusually high ceiling. These early spring heat bomb synoptic scenarios have been going off all over the planet, with higher frequency, for the last 20 years. They are different than run-o-the-mill balm you might get for a couple of days in melt and mud seasons. They take you to June, with sun shining type stuff. It's okay to try and recognize/study in attempt to see one coming. As an afterthought .. one of the concepts that haunts for me is how enabling I suspect this season's weirdly unrelenting -EPO and cold loaded continent may have guided perceptions. If/when removing that factor, there is implication baked in that the correction, both sensibly and in the objective results, would have surprisingly big potential. It's going to be interesting as we head deeper into March ... seeing how/if this manifests.

I might be willing to sell that 5th cutter... stand by on that oh wait - that actually looks clean ... nevermind

That's a whiplash. 24 hours to take the hydrostatic height from 516 dm to 546 ... and there's no stopping them from rising probably to 560 over the next 12. That's like going from 32 to 72 in 2 days.

startin to look that way

That April 2002 was … can’t believe I forgot that one but yeah. The preceding year was a La Niña ENSO phase. The heat was something but I remember the backdoor fronts (2 of them that month) were only back to 60 … not the typical 40 you’d associate with BDs at that time of year. Anyway … we’ll see

There is a time decay on that though. If they occur too late, the seasonal breakdown of the hemispheric eddy goes so far the circuitry's cut and the cycle won't complete - the correlations peeters out.

Not really ... not much for seasonal wx forecasting. Not my bag ... Ray or someone may have an idea. i guess i could say that La Nina have been known to throw out some ridic heat early. 1976 was a whopper. The VAX up at UML had ASOS records going back that far, and there was a heat wave in April that year that was like 92/93/96/94 ... during a month that seldom saw a high less than 75 - exceedingly rare for a strapped down Labradorian rape month like April... that's an extreme though. Since 2000, we've been getting weird warm spells early (Feb-Apr) that skew the real picture, because they occurred regardless of what ENSO this or that was taking place. i dunno.

Well, I'm not intending to doom the summer of 2025. haha. Just that these DP stagnated warm cesspool summer types ...yeah, they are depressing - to me. And as I was saying to Scoot, I'm hoping to avoid that type of summer as we set to put this winter out of its misery. You know ... there are those amongst us that ( seemingly...) actually love asthma attacks from stachybotrys chartarum spores, the spread of exotic fungi, and/or invasive biting species migration that harbor pathogens the likes of which would make a Nazi bioweapons researcher envious - and they get all that, for free, when every day is 81/77 ... I don't know who they are ( or if they are really human beings - ) but in the spirit of WOKIsm, we can't leave them out I guess

after the 10th ... yeah, more or less. It's obviously bs to attempt details. Like, most Mets like to refer to long leads as percentages chances for above, much above, below or much below, leaving "warm" and/or "mild" adjectives off the table Thing is, merely above normal for March 15 isn't exactly warm water therapy to the back of balls. We'd need to get much higher than just above average to fit that impression. Subjectivity notwithstanding. 50s persistently is early spring and would qualify as comprehensive thawing for example. Again, the "scale and breadth of the expansion" is naturally going to be less certain for the time being.

Anyway, unless the indexes change, the present long range continues to blow torch. By the Ides of the month, comprehensive thaw and a decidedly different sensible weather permeates. There are no other offset indicators at this time when using the teleconnectors. The spatial synoptic illustrations look cold through the 10th but they probably should, considering the modest -EPO dump in the foreground ( roughly the 5th...). I could see it where the scale and breadth of warm expansion afterward toward mid month may presently/merely have some emergence challenges, for the guidance having to 'see' through that cold ish gauntlet in the foreground. Model performance on the other side of inflection points is typically not that great.

Who said "extinct" ? But ... in fairness to the discussion, plausibly being forced into a population correction? It should certainly be considered as an outcome on the table of possibilities. We may be able to go from present day, into a "forced correction" but unlikely. "Forced" usually that requires an outcome people do not want to experience. In order to mitigate losses, either way ... prepare. That's the idea there

So you are into temperature concerns... word. I'm sick of this, "convective debris by 1 pm in 78 DPs, with thunder boomin away always somewhere else ..." and it's penetrative warm wetness that seems to even get into your bed it is so inundating - if you don't have sufficient hvac methods . It's like we get this weakness in the 500 mb height field - I think it's related to these unbearable record hot heat domes going on over western N/A, more and more so in summers. It is causing the flow to physically/necessarily sink in latitude over the eastern continent - in the means. Sure, it won't be all the time, but is however the base-line super synoptic rest state. The flow is SE over VA, S over PA, and that pools in New England. That means like Scott was saying ...we seem to more and more end up with high DPs, which of course is true... There's no seems about - regardless of cause, we are getting persistent DP anomalies. This then inimically leads to +cloud anomalies and basically ... NOT getting the 84/55, WNW breezy, nostalgic summer types.