Typhoon Tip

There are some walking Darwin Awards in here that simply haven't found their ceremony yet - Thinking that inconvenience every six months is even in the same f'ing ballpark as full on risk to health and safety, not just for "you" but for all civility... as being justification for not taking a vaccine ... sorry - but that failure to see logic means their minds have slipped or failed in general, to become intellectually responsible and it is a matter of time-

What you just said is a "false equivalence" ... Feeling lousy by vaccine side effects not harmful enough to get you to an ER ... is not the same thing as being reduced to an inch of your life by this infection, or... dying - If vaccines are good for six months, and you have to take a day or two to rinse through it, that is a better option than death.

LOL ... well, we're transforming this into a 'snow or not' thing- that's fine too.. I'm more into the QPF in general. Could be quite prolific as you ...Scott et al But I guess as far as snow goes: I'm thinking two things concurrently on that and not sure which way to go. The first being, my experience in spring marginality is that the models will tend to error crucial .5C too warm because they don't really resolve the sub-synoptic dynamic dimensions that take place inside the cyclonic machinery... not from the mid range. In fact, sometimes it event takes now-casting to flip cat-paw deals into parachutes. This is sort of October 2009 slush NFL game at Gillette as an example. There are also feed-backs because of terrain, featuresthat are not resolved nearly that well even in the super star Euro cluster... The spine of Worcester Hills can exacerbate lift and that dynamically cools the column below the seed level and that helps draw the aggregates to the tree canopies up there... and then that starts modulating via conduction and weird micro phenomenon - ... it's not doing all this stuff over a flat curved planetary surface. ... I mean, summing all that together is usually going to offset the curtain heights of a CCB more so than present day modeling technology, which by virtue of limitation to do so ...smooths those thing into blindness - cooler tendencies happen. That said, the other aspect that I can't ignore is that our "flop direction" appears to have been ruined by CC frankly. We used to depend upon the above spectrum of complexity to ensure a blue-green ptype chart in April ended up cake at 32 -34 F ... but it seems in the last 10 years ... more and more those are just ending up blats on windshields. Nature does not like exact numbers - it happens...but storms typically pass through cat-paw 33 on route to some other state rather than stay at that razor's edge - that's why for the euphemism 'flop direction' It "could" actually be just better modeling physics altogether ...

"Whats the point of a vaccine if it only lasts 6 months? " really wow It's so one does not get C-19 ... for six months - Sounds a tad self-centered/entitled... spoiled, like ... "I don't want it if I can't have it all" ? What does one say to that - If society et al, you know ... those pesky other people outside one's inward pointing compass? If all that is given a 6 month reprieve, that is time given back to research, to medical practicum, to just giving the immense momentum requirement needed to motivate 7 billion people.

That may have something to do with it, too ? There's growing evidence lifestyle plays a role in morbidity risk - this is true in biology period, but the quality of longer-termed life-style, nutrition to exercise, hydration to sleep patterns, parlay with this thing. Seemingly quite specifically, too. I mean if anyone has a counter veracious reported source that specifically argues against both science and anecdotal immensely corroborating data mass, by all means... It is undeniable otherwise, there appears to be a core health 'gestalt' relationship to this where it precedes the worst cases. C-19 seems to go after the sinners, so to speak. It's almost like the moral virus - I'll stop short of invoking religion. The original scriptures and texts ...clearly were not written with vaccine wonders of advancing biological science in mind so "plague" isn't really a lightning bolt from the Zeus so much anymore... but that's theological popsicle headache. I'm not saying your pops was a 'sinner' per se, but I am not sure where package store, and the Mc in Donald's fit very well into the virtuous living paragon. C-19 wants to almost poetically come and get them, or in the least is statistically favored in the general population density as primary leading risk factor, once other genetic predispositions can be removed. It's the Big Mac revenge. There's other shit too - there always is. Genetic factors play a role. One could be Cystic Fibrotic, ...have that ORMDL3 genetic mutation that causes Athsma.. They could have genetic hypertension ... type 1 Diabetes ... the list is probably thousands and science can only identify a hundred. God hates red-heads, too... can't forget .. lol. Anyway, we hear of the occasional organic eating, 10K running quire-boy that's never celebrated with so much as a cigar or more than an ounce of champagne ..otherwise, in bed by 10 and no life ... Scores a Darwin award. Wtf did they do wrong? But those are the normal rarefied exceptions to every rule.

If you read the paragraph that follows ... it is not such a brave outlook - Whether it happens ... it's relative to guidance/implictions therein - guidance could be en masse be wrong. sure

Presently ...the most dependable operational guidance types/ .. blends therein agree that the structural evolution will move perfectly under our latitude ( 1997 style). That absolutely pegs climatology ( to very high percentile) for lashing SNE. That would have to change in order for the bold to succeed. Which ... it can, but all these guidance/ .. blend therein would have to up and be flat wrong ( as of 00z) on a D4.5. Getting strained to believe that would be the case .. There has also been cross-guidance and multi-ensemble member continuity more like the 00z/ .. blend evolution for a deep number of cycles ... extending back day's worth actually ... just sayn'

Regardless of any other impacts ... whatever happens between 96 and 132 hours is likely to over-perform QPF-wise. More advance concepts: East wind anomalies extend very deep in the atmosphere, and though this system does not fan/evacuated due to accelerating entrance jets ...it has a vertically stacked easterly jet that extends from 850 mb to and over the 300 mb of tropospheric depth - that enitre slab of saturable atmosphere rips westward for 30 straight hours, into and **while** the core heights drop an additional 6 to 10 dm... due to dynamic feed-backs. That means there is a steady ratio of instability and that much mass transport into that bucket space will end up in the buckets on the ground to put it nicely. Terrain enhancing as a factor maximizes ... Local studies perform very proficiently in that synoptic evolution. Eastern Berks rise, the Worcester Hills/Monadnocks into the lower Whtie's due very well.

Yeah... it's pissing me off -

Yup... seems this BD event had a kind of double boundary aspect to it - the main boundary cut under probably through your neck of the woods around noon... at that time, we were just getting a 2ndary oomph of wind gust from the NE up here and it was a cold smack. Went from flirting with 60 in partly sunny, to 48 and slate shits in an hour. What you describe catching up to you is almost like that 2nd boundary that came through here, making it's way southwest through the area... But yeah... if one is a spring/warm enthusiasts, ... you April, until further notice

Or ...some rural line-toer walking down the break down lane of a country road ... no cars going passed probably in 5 minute intervals, and nothing else around but the brackish stream running along the road ... In the distance beyond the wetland adorned by last years cattails and dead sage, woods, while two turkey vultures do mobius loops in the sky above. And as I'm going past this lone solitary soul, 20 miles from anything qualifiable as a town ... he's wearing a mask. Other than the common clay of backdrop American morons ... I do get a distinct impression that some of the espy a person, pull up the mask thing might also have something to do with the anathema toward people who don't at least act concerned enough to pull it up - people don't want to be shaded or shamed, and end up on the news as 'that asshole' not wearing a mask around others.

It's really like they can't - They've allowed the entire infrastructure of society to become bottle-neck dependent up on it, to the point where pulling back and 'disconnecting' would cause [ probably ] a modeled Nat Security risk. Disproportionate set back ... trust me ( I mean the general reader - ) this shit is advanced modeled by Pentagon ...etc, et al. Society is too inextricably co-dependent upon technologies that - oops - were allowed to be privately constrained ... They are not just wealthy - they can flip switches... and a reset now would be catastrophic - call it implicit extortion. It's probably chapter 2 or 3 in that dystopian novel, "Fermi's Paradox"

Mm hm... An excerpt from that which was too long for anyone to have actually read - heh...I gotta stop writing on this site. But, " We probably really just went through the greatest transfer of wealth from one sector of western economics to another, in history. And those that received it ... they really should give it all back- or they are greedy with no redeeming value at all. 0. And though there isn't a hard conspiracy ... it's like the Bobby Axelrod affect - you really wanna keep that in entertainment and not have those types really pulling the levers of society. "

Yeah... I was hammering the telecon layout for awhile myself. It was a monster winter signal ... for February For mid April? It may be mainly an inclement one, wet and cold and miserable .. usual suspects. I spent some time looking over all the spring snow producing events that were important - that I could think off. 1977, 1982, 1984, 1997 ... 2005 .. .etc. They all were "lucky" in a sense in that they got a bit of a cold goosing/inject at a critical time in the developmental phase of cyclogenesis. The other aspect is that there seems to be general modeling technology problem across the bevy of them all, actually... I thought it was something to do with the hemispheric pattern but I'm starting to see the same shit here in a much more nebular flow look/ pattern orientations we didn't have over the winter so I'm not sure it isn't just the models doing this. Doesn't matter which, ...but they are consummately over assessing the amplitude of cyclones in the mid range, and then we watch them ( almost all of them!) peeter out to some lesser form, ...sometimes disappearing altogether. The combination of that and normal seasonal damping ... lends to your thinking of chilly showers -

It seems from these anecdotal accounts bandied about in this social media that a pattern emerges. It is as though the vaccine spectrum of induced symptoms is perhaps proportional, just shift the whole scale toward much less severe. Take a population and some few will need critical care to resolve ...or even die, ranging to just a short few days of inconvenience for the majority ..etc. Perhaps those that 'would have' needed that urgent care...those are the ones getting more harsh vaccine reactions ...

Oh ... I used to live in Rockport ... years and years ago... but, by and large, that doesn't change. It has its charm out there on the tip of the N. Atlantic dip stick known as Cape Ann. You are about in the 90th percentile engulfed in the Labrador Gordon Fisherman wind burned cheek, yet stiff knuckled cold marine climate out there. You can just smell the cold ocean - and it is different than the oceanic aroma of Va Beach or San Diego. I was on the beaches of the Pac side of the Bay Area last June, and that same cold ocean smell was evidence. It's interesting - albeit probably an observation that only a dork like me would hone into..heh. But it's a way of life. If one sans any hope of smelling summer fields and fair ground hot dogs crossing the bridge by the Pogey fish refinery ... and completely inures themselves to boat shoes by summer, parka by winter ... harbor bell culture, they'll do just fine. One thing I miss is what I've called 'sailor's spirit' in the past. It's when the marine layer moves inland on sunny days in the spring and summer...and the leading edge of the fog bank is translucent shrouds that look like apparitions with the sun shining through them. It's a cool aspect. Also, in the winter ... those 0 cryo air masses and the morning sun cuts through the pedestrian steam dogs as they wonder and dance to and fro across the surface of harbor. It's an amazing spectacle if you have the option to head back in for a cocoa and a scone.

You're not too far W. of me along Rt poopy ... We dawned classic overnight BD'ed with slate gray 48 misery mist here... but, we've cleared...and in Ayer we are definitely on the cold side of the BD air mass boundary - but we are still making a run at 60 because that hot high one in the sky is doing what it can to offset. But it won't last .. . hi res vis loop shows this is a fortuitous wedge of clearing between the post boundary band, and a new strata ceiling making en roads from the E ..https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Should be back to slate sky here in a hour or so if that doesn't start eroding back ...

This thing didn't really come through here with a wind jolt, either ... It's an ooze by deal - This BD seems to almost be melded into the larger synoptic backing deep layer flow associated with that slow moving trough trying desperately to get squeezed under our latitude. It can't go through the Lakes transit into western Ontario ... so it ends up shearing and going under - taking the next 36 to 48 hours of our lives to do it... But, in doing so, the deep layer tries to turn E anyway... The 'screen door' slam, flag snapping gust of wind type usually comes in more off smaller scaled synoptics. A trough skirting SE out of Quebec, and the NVA behind in ( downward vertical motion..) imparts a mass discontinuity with rising PP over the cold GOM ...and when the air mass is warm and buoyand over the interior coastal plain of Maine to CT ... guess where that air mass goes ? Under the buoyant air - it starts rolling and tumbling SW to 'fill it in'...kind of like opening a freezer door and seeing the cold air flow across the floor - just doing it at the scale of E. New England. Anyway, in the strictest sense this is sort of a hybrid between that and just in general backing deep layer flow.

Which any dude that does and gets 'er home, probably reaches down and oops! noodle and meatballs with that f'n sketchy din of ill-reputable membership - lol... I wouldn't go anywhere near that shit.

I don't disagree ... " It may not absolutely terrible at all times, but several intervals " I think one needs to plan on something like that progression ...and then if things break better ( depending on one's wants and wishes...heh), you'll be pleasantly surprised. The NAO being negative and the PNA actively rising is never good for fair weather enthusiasts as a base-line/ canvas probability. It just isn't. Welcome to April man

What I'm looking at is very good agreement among the operational runs from 00z. Euro, GFS ..G"JUNK" UKMET all trundle a 'bowling ball' under our latitude ( dangerous ) toward the end of the week. In fairness, all that needs is an 850 insert of -1 C and the column would collapse, just as much as if cold does not inject in optimal timing ...the vortex spins by at mid levels with comparatively less surface realization - that's how these things work in spring. The instability in the lower troposphere gets blunted and rotted much faster, so an ominous series of H500 charts end up paltry at the surface. But, when cold avails to them...look out! High PWAT blue snow can strike. We should caution not to be beguiled for having gotten lucky during these first 10 days of the month. Do not forget our climate identity in this geographic - not that anyone is, just sayn'. We've seen enough snow events in mid April. Forget snow .. we should at minimum count on putrescent weather conditions in that look. You know, having it be occasionally balmy to warm, then, dosing putrescence after the fact, does fit right in with the last 10 years worth of f'ed-up springs. Why break trend now. haha, after all this... I predict the Keven wakes up next Saturday morning with blue tinted light at dawn. Glops and slops and splats from trees and eaves to the 4" of 5::1 on the ground. Kidding but we'll see.. Forget that though, it appears the next 10 days are not good for nice weather enthusiasts. But, at least there is increased potential for substantive rainfall - some seem to not "want" that. But, taking some intellectual responsibility and acting lucid for a moment, the probability is increased. With the operational trends landing on top of those vestigial telecon index modes, and appearing to agree - pretty amazing in mid April... tough to argue. We'll see what comes of it.. of which could fall as 'farmer's gold,' too. It may not absolutely terrible at all times, but several intervals

I had a direct encounter with a 500 lb male down here along the Nashua River bike trail two summers ago. Loped away into the woods after just a five second staring contest but it was definitely a rapid heart rate moment ... I had never seen one in the wild - was completely unprepared. The potentially not so funny thing about that encounter was that less than a half mile later on the same path there’s a woman with a baby crib rolling by ... basically just other pedestrians to and fro… I later called the police and they connected me to some kind of game warden I think was the title? Anyway they told me they were glad that I called that in because they were looking for the sire; apparently there’s a couple moms in along Rt 2/N with cubs ...which incidentally are far more dangerous even in accidental encounter than that male by the way - Black bears may not look very big on television but man they’re huge. The head of that thing was like the size of nightmare and when it bounded across the bike path it literally extended the entire distance of the bike path width. When I described that to the game warden she said it was most likely a big male - 450 to 500 lbs of ‘im

So what was it at the end of May last year when it was 96 up there lol if now is the third week of June ... that musta been the 7th dimension of Dante’s Inferno

Yeah no today is one day… - it’ll be interesting to see the tenor in here tomorrow at about 4 o’clock when it’s 44° with slate gray sky and occasional gentle mist

I’m beginning to think that all pathogenic infections of the biological kingdom have always carried on with that same preferential symptomatic sequence/impact based upon susceptibility model. And that the main difference between COVID-19, vs all those before it is that C-19 is hyper focused to the point where any f-ing sneeze or butt itch is being documented as a horror story. Sure people with lupus ...probably legitimately getting sacked. Sure. That would be true with the flu, and it would probably be true with cancer too. Only so much any body can take. If one is carrying around heart disease and then they get a head cold it probably gonna be magnified - it’s always been that way. This is what happens when CNN and Fox News are the instructors for society