Typhoon Tip

Egh ... I was gonna write about it. Even considered a new thread, "Anatomy of a White Christmas," that covers the scaffolding of major atmospheric, mass field modes --> modalities, replete with annotated graphics ...etc. Then, onward to elaborating how those might parlay into better chances to Currier&Ives the appeal of Xmas Eve through Boxing Day then we may think. Alas! Will ( bastard! ) beat me to it. J/k Will.. I mean he's succinctly covered the generality, and why/how the 'correction vector' toward ( what I believe would mean ) less likeliness for a Euro wound up western Ontario low by D7. I just want to offer some more specific insights/observations re the dailies: The differences track back to roughly/beginning D5.5/6, off the 00z runs when comparing the Euro and the GFS operational version ( the GGEM is mid way between so take for what that source is by least regrets. I won't for this exercise.. ) Looking first over Ds 2.5 - 5, the flow construct is, in essence, not significantly different between the two - and for what it is worth .. the means of both ens systems don't urge questioning much either. They have an 'outside slider' type trough curling down the Cali/west Coast, turning E and probably bringing mud slides to the elevations E of San Fernando Valley. From there on the -EPO trough ejects these mechanics into the crucially different morphology. Look over lower Saskatchewan/Manitoba by D6 ... ? By then these models have completely divorced in falling diametrically out of sync with one another. The Euro has a tightly nucleated, deep negative anomaly in that vicinity, amid a negate regional nadir in the height fields. Contrasting, the GFS bifurcates teh flow west of there, with the N component ridging amid those same skies, while said ejected trough coherence cuts underneath toward Chicago... The reason for this difference isn't abundantly clear, but it has meaningful forcing implications heading in Xmas day and the 26th from the Lakes to New England ( and all of this could be move up in time, too, nodding to the antecedent persistent fast flow state that's more of an on-going corrective, endemic hemispheric footprint ). This flow type of the GFS with the trough underneath, is a progressive low-amplitude REX configuration; those typically wrought winter headaches. Despite these significant mid/upper air differences aloft, the Euro surface featuring/version actually is not hugely different than the GFS for east of BUF... certainly ALB as we head toward the 24th. Both version initially maintain a bit of '50/50' low CAA leading, and start overrunning and snowing by dawn on Xmas, but... the Euro then has huge momentum in warm sector push and ends up cold raining and clear to southern NH. But those details are all going to change of course. I suspect if the EPS/GEFs mean, which both show Greenland/-NAO node tending to move S toward the D. Straight region is correct, that is going to offer less support for Lakes transits ( like Will said. ) So I'm precariously close to restating his ... heh.

I’m not sure that matters… People can post it they want to post - unless he/she posts something that’s untrue there’s no argument. People have a choice not to listen.. or read in this case… If they don’t like it block the person. Done. The other aspect is that (so far) his post don’t bother me because they appear to be true. He may be using truth as a weapon but it takes two people to allow that weaponization to exist lol I think also if anybody comes in and has a sentiment that is anathema they get labeled … May be a sensitivity issue in other words I think people just need to get some balls and grow some iron and/or ignore

God I wish I could have that half of football life back. The Patriots were the suckiest suckers that ever sucked!

I just you know honestly I’m only tacitly aware when these troll feuds bubble up so taken fwiw - Maybe I don’t get why he’s being accused of trolling then .

Oh well ur’s was never in scrutiny. Im asking what he’s said that’s not true

Neither have you what im asking

I realize y’all point the troll finger but has he said anything that’s not true tho ?

We tucked here... temps down 2 and wind is N

Same two towns over here in Ayer.. though more PL than ZR. 32 on the button.

I believe it is the northern stream that you really want to pay attention to, folks -

I know what meant but .. not a 'right or wrong' - I was legit asking. I just know it was snowing off and on overnight out in Clinton, which is about 30 mi as the crow flies, west of the city, and the snow was dry and powdery by dawn. Doesn't matter though - I've seen it be 19 F with near white out in Winchester, and 34F with cat paw rain at Logan - dem two locations be like 10 mi apart. But 7am on Xmas morning would have counted - not sure how the disqualifies Xmas if it snows at noon ...on Xmas. Anyway, the synopsis of that day had a coastal snowing at dawn essentially. It's a matter of whether it get to the coast.

Heh... riding the 'Hadley Cell express' means shredding la vida loca !

Keeping in mind, also - ..for the general reader. .... CC is real? Yup... shocker but it is. Unfortunately. And, it has been noted that the curve is more logarithmic than perfectly linear. That means the change is inconsistent/accelerating. How much or less, notwithstanding - Plus, we get into the uncertainty area about "thresholds" and so forth - almost like the natural order 'fights back' ...tries to 'bend but not break' until it has to, then 'clicks' into a new regime. It's like passing through the event horizon of the black hole ( in theory ..), where you don't feel or notice anything of particular differentiation or notice upon going across the boundary, but you can never go back... Obviously, the climate can - but ...metaphors for fun.. The percentages are calculated over 150 years and so forth ... blah blah... BUT the ballast of the years in that sample set obviously took place way back before this CC shit started ( possibly ) invalidating climate signals that are based upon them. It could just be 'on the wrong side of variance' like that, sure. But, it could, dreadful to consider, be that a 'newer climate mode' lowers the chances. In that sense ..

I thought 2017 snowed in Boston? I was in Clinton/MA for that one. Winter storm warning for 6-8" or something middling like that, for Xmas Eve into the morning and it was like Currier&Ives post-card out there at the dawn. It was like ... perfection entree, with a side of perfection - Temp was 27 F with snow mid size aggregates whirling around in 1/2 mi visibility over 7" ... perfectly managed forecast, too. But I dunno - maybe Boston was hung up on the E side of CF or some other least excuse imagined not to get it done -

I've given up ... lol. I mean whether it happens or not, I'm noticing a definitive pattern of modeling behavior that is both eerie, and real: Losing mid/extended range specters, ... objectively plausible ones, too, precisely upon anyone mentioning them ... Almost like the electron double split spooky action at a distance thing. Seriously though, that 22nd/23rd thing has had opportunity to be there but now the PNA s diving again next week, after a couple .. 3 days where it was alleviating some ( at least...). It's a bizarre hemisphere, no doubt - I'd even venture to call it 'rare' in some sense. Though I doubt there are any databases the calculate teleconnector failure regimes, per se. But having a -WPO tending to spill or lap over into the EPO domain, with -30 to -35 C 850 mb thermal sink over the vast expanse of the NW Canadian open tundra ( Euro 00z ), .... FAIL to come south. With -EPO/-NAO, together with the former circumstance, that is a uniquely distinguished telecon forcing breakdown. It's almost flirting with remarkable, actually - Fascinating ... I suppose it would nice to be on the winter storm side of fascinating anomalies, but maybe that was 2015/Feb. But here, not only are those aspects out there by D5-10 ...the Euro gets the 850s above normal to BUF.

Seems on par with expectations... yup - no worries. Considering NWS that is. Here is a product lifted from DVN: ...Resolution doesn't scale up very well with the tools/apps I have installed buuuut, that looks pretty cleanly still like TAN is way way buried on the left side of that probability spectrum. I'd say probably near the cusp of the 0-10% boundary with the entry into the 11-25%... If that is so ( for spell out's sake - ) that's like saying in 100 years, you can have a white Xmas 11 times. Obviously nature is messy and numbers don't return rate at such orderly predictability... but for layman's argument, a scatter distribution of 11 over a Century is roughly once ever 9 years ( 100/11 = 99 plus change...). So, throw in GW (that many either protest/pretends/denies/gets into fume wars if they have to admit..etc, that suffers our latitude like everywhere else) ..that may account for stretching some ... who knows? But either way, it's not stretching expectations too 'unjustly' if thinking about the numbers. It would be nice if we could get a white Xmas every year with an 11% return rate - but that would require some sort of weird alternate reality LOL...

Look at it on the bright side … it’ll snow right where the new climate regime we’ve clicked into says it should… How’s that for trolling. Lol. ho man

I’m sure they did but “days ago” this was tracking through CNE heh

This is ice if it’s that miserable aloft. Higher PP north while wet bulbing is an easy tuck call

Dew points pressing in the low 20s … not bad. Ts 40-44.

nothing to see here ... until a week 2 perhaps unless shit changes - we'll see if it does, otherwise. nope -

00z NAM looked snow -like beneath 800mb/ N of the pike. about .5” liq eq

Its shit like that which drives me nuts when I see WPC’s stupid resolution here

Yeah agreed... I think that period 22 -25th is still on the table... It'd be ( I think? ) the 22nd event these models toyed with 4 days back, but lost it. But that chart above is/are a part of the moving pieces back then, still being negotiated in these runs now... I don't think - duh - at D7+ it is too much to ask for this to modulate back into significance. I just you know honestly I wouldn't really be hitting at it, but these blocking nodes, Greenland ( and trending W by the way ...) and -(WPO;EPO), are evolving, ..which means no one from Colorado to NF is safe at this point. interesting

I'm saying that as a 'least' result - I mean, at this point, I'd hedge the Euro run and put money on that ... ( but tomorrow is a different day at the casino) But you know, even for the Euro, ..when the flow is compressed and fast like this, the snow vs mix vs rain corridors may also narrow. Small or even nuanced perturbations in where the ballast of the system tracks can make for impact variances along challengingly small forecast distances. And those small variances are below the model(s) capacity.