Typhoon Tip

Who cares about the 4th ... god, there's a potentially life threatening event getting started like now - But I know.. No one takes heat seriously - fine. whatever. The nexus of cumulative thermal storing with residual supportive synoptics doesn't really occur until Tuesday 18z ( ~ ), despite the non-hydrostatic dome on the charts maximizing in the Y and X coordinate dimensions roughly 00z tomorrow evening. Tuesday morning, in fact, I wonder if elevated/record high-minimums may be in trouble that dawn. Light west wind over, through a landscape bathed the previous day in insolation will help maintain fully thermally charged hydrostatic thickness, in a situation where the initial conditional potential are huge in that regard. This should reflect in temperature stalls at exceptionally high values - even relative to heat wave climo for our area of the country. The over-arcing synoptic ordeal's significance ( I believe ) may be eclipsed by the Portland specter. We are approaching 600 dam just S of LI. One can only imagine what would be if Sonoran heat injection got caught up inside this thing - Anyway I could see Logan and LGA not falling below 84 F, perhaps not 90 until 1 or 2 am. interesting.

It could be that simple - snark aside. Lol, words to the affect of, "...Exhibiting methods of propulsion and acceleration 'unworldly' beyond the technological and/or scientific capabilities of the U.S. or its allies, or adversaries. ..." Egads! What does one do with a statement like that - Truth be told ... despite the evocative use of the word 'unworldly' ... ( which I am not really sure that is in the report - I should probably go make sure because CNN covered and they are barely a verifiable status above tabloid news at this point for their incendiary tactic bullshit ) ... all that report really reveals is: A, this is what we observed; B, we don't have an explanation for what these objects really are. But it seems rather egregious using turn of phrases like unworldly toward a population saturated by the last 25 years of seamless VR vs R, in CGI dystopian Sci Fi cinema. Too egregious in fact - c'mon man! They said that shit like that, deliberately. Maybe it is to increase funding. I dunno. Or, it's just the PR ineptitude of American "intelligence" agencies. Ha! Distinct possibility just the same. Either way, it' like they are cutesy dancing around the pachyderm notion of the thing and what they 'really' think - actual ET ? Say it, but don't 'say it' to dodge culpability and undermining confidence in their offices.

N edge of high cloud band just cleared here, too - we're currently humming in the microwave

I realize this won't get considered/ ..if read, so I'll keep it brief. Models turning the flow more west tomorrow/Tuesday. Mid coastal CT to Logan and points SE won't broil today ventilated by modifying marine contamination and mid/upper 80s and rich DPs oughta do it today. So when the thumbs down post about the heat bust start up, keep that in mind

It's still 7 days away so yeah, likely to change in future runs. Wouldn't sweat it - This forum also serves as an outlet for neurotic complaining/venting. Soo many red-headed step children are grateful this was invented as a domestic abuse reducing device - lol..

Oh, .. Hoarfrosty Hubb-dawg ... You were talking about Monday - I was thinking today when I responded. What I said really applies to today more so ( although the 77 DP is a bit hyperbole, admit - ) Tomorrow... Mm... you still won't make 98 - lol. But I suspect you could get into the low 90s.

Good ... judging by what I just saw weeble-wobbling into Walmart, a food shortage may give western Industrial societies a chance of getting the majority biomass of the proletariat to actually become less massive ... There's a thought.

Yeah, this is one of those deal where the ultra calibrated nature of the typical air-way ASOS tech housing ...won't reflect small rural down towns, nor the experience of living in them, as they are surrounding by sun baked fields evaporating soil moisture into a column with ongoing continental Tropical air transport already. I could see ASH being 94.3/69.8 on that Mesowest ... but Lancaster center is 88/77 and the latter is actually f'ing real too.

It won't - If Logan makes 101, you'll be 95 at your elevation and foliage dense surrounding - also rural environment? DP ? That's another thing. You'll be in the tea kettle on that one

Heat wave begins tomorrow locally. unlike the last .. this one may have better nocturnal retention. Wow Monday night 25C at T1 in the new NAM all night long in wind that had veered into a light W direction , both NYC and BOS, after an afternoon of 95/72 is a bad bad night for lower income urban dense housing 2nd a 3rd story residences. One of those 84 at 1am deals out by the curb. dangerous Tuesday - that looks like Excessive warning headline to me

Frankly .. long about Thursday tolerances may be blown and a front "near by" might just be welcome ... not necessary, for the 4th weekend. if one comes through a ridge west dominant pattern, it probably backsides dry air and 80 F ...like absolute perfect weather for outdoors and fire works and all that shit. The Euro run is insufferable - goes from a deadly 103 HI event spanning nearly 4 days ... to a miserable one, lasting an additional 4 days. Hand wringing over losing that is tantamount to psychosis if you ask me -

Ha - ...consummate too low machine DP guidance caught NWS off guard ?

Identity politics is 'tribalism' period - ... a lot of which is probably more primal-instinctive, engendered over eons, than people are aware. Yeah that's right - we do it unconsciously, we seek now. Why? Because at a species level of consideration, our advantage over all was formerly our intense social dependency in and of ...duh duh dunnnn 'THE TRIBE' Working together, en masse, we concurred the Sabertooth monsters and brought down the Willy Mammoths, and survived by necessary co-dependency as the weakest, pound for pound warm blooded member in the biological kingdom of prey-predator competition ecology. Other animals are born with the attributes to do so; our "claws" and "teeth" is/was shared information. It took 750,000 years of evolution to do so. The last 500 .. 200 ..and in particular 50 years of techno-sociological emergence ( on the time scales of evolution, a cyber bomb went off) is provisionally secure, and no longer as much so requires the former evolutionary advantage - but it is a voice that cannot be muted, calling from within. Sorry for the ooh-la-la finger snap dialogue, but it's really sort of apropos. The instinctual message that was evolved all along is not be answered by the advantages in modernism. People feel lost, without that community. They can find the tribe. It's a powder keg for dissension and schismatic fracture in the culture, because the internet offers a way for people to find and formulate that sense of tribalism that is missing in their biological imperative - which it is ... The instinct to be in the tribe, is in our genes! But there is no tribe between the well fed individual alone with his/her smart phone, and no sense of challenge - other than what CNN tells you you should be challenged by? I think we are living through an evolutionary turn - it may take the next 50 generations to settle out ... probably after some form of natural ecological failure, war(s) and a cocktail or two population correction and if we make it - some new paradigm of how to be together again, when faced with all these advantages.

this might be more the esoteric metric but .. the 12z NAM FOUS for BTV up there in NW NE ? I almost wonder if they set a high DP ( dew point) record sometimes late Sunday into Monday. 23 to 28 C at their T1 sigma level - yet they have repeating intervals ( 6 -hrlies) with QPF in the bucket straight through that heat. That's like suggestive of raining noon Monday at 87 F - yikes

Sorta yeah, but humans are different? "deer-stung" metaphor may be a bit of an irony in this sense, because Human curiosity - after all - gets us to the moon, where no other species on this planet exhibits and/or operates motivation, to satisfy discovery, so boldly. They are more at guided by built in primal fear triggers that avoid risk based on the corporeal senses of daunting sight, sound, smell..etc.. That, right there in that movie - to me - smacks as just another frontier exploration, overcoming the instinct to "run from the thunder" . In short, he doesn't know any better; we benefit from a risky venture into a film making - lol. Give 'im a few run ins with 1999 May on the south side of OKC, and we probably never would have seen this video made.

It's all relative. Can't predict the future, so we live our lives now, and hope for the best, while we presume the best is not 6 ft under ground in our convenience entitled, stupefied modernism - but that's another excoriation in human failing for another time. Canada would look like they were ahead of the game if this/these "Delta phase-II of operation kill-back" variants make the vaccine numbers less than useful. We wait and see ... Personally, I'm getting 'humorously' suspicious ( call it ... ) of these variances being more potent than the original. That is not typically how Pandemic epidemiology's historically studies demonstrate, per the reads I've come across on the subject matter. Subsequent virus variants amid their genomic descendance are typically less injurious to the host, because it doesn't make sense for the virus to actually kill the host - that academically torpedoes its ability to spread ? hello - That is why Influ A and B are not as deadly as Spanish Flu...etc, and on and so on. They become endemic with less potency,, in following this natural arc. The literature is easy to look up. These so-called variants are moving counter to that model - is this just a first in biological field observation? OR, since the primary version was clearly ( get f'ing real man ) bio-engineered, maybe this DELTA bs didn't mutate from jack shit in actuality - it too was 'accidentally released' Lol accidentally. I mean yeah .. it mutated alright - in a centrifuge.

Truly spectacular high definition cinema vantage right there .. I suspect owes to the advantages of a rare tornado in that region of the world; the less threat-acclimated civility, not experienced enough to have fear and precaution ruin their vantage points - like through a window... or just getting a glimpse of it en route to interior cover before the door slams shut. This guy ? You can tell he's deer-stung mesmerized as he just stands there in the door jam mere feet from the egg-beater -

You don't have to impress me! I've been very clear about my fascination for heat wave synoptics, early detection in modeling and throughout the gestation of events over the years - just as sickly much so as wandering out in a dusty froth of 0 F cryo-hell in busy winds and whirling snow so heavy it's thunderstorm gray during mid day light.

I'm not sure when I averred otherwise - where's that coming from? I don't think I was part of that conversation. LOL Look, ..a bloke gets a new virus. The body responds. If he survives, the body has a 'natural immunity' - right. Who's in contention of that? But, to say that a vaccine is less effective in getting the bloke to the same immunity, that is not true. That's all - Anything else, ..I wasn't involved in that stream of pings -

Hmm interesting those were all before the turn of the Century, a time since features the arrival of the new 594 ridge era

Not to be a dink but yeah ...I wrote a quick post ( for me - haha) last night about this very subject. The non-hydrostatic heights over Long Island are equal or similar from late Sun and particularly Mon thru early Wed, to those over the the Pac NW. We are not maximizing the hydrostatic thickness within that non-hydrostatic ridge bomb. It may be that we can't at our latitude ... not without two suns. But, there is a way that with the sun, together with planetary feed-backs can 'synergistically' get the deed done. And I really feel we are dodging extraordinary bullets when these 594 dam extremes emerge. Playing with fire heh How? We haven’t observed a true Sonoran heat release in recent years. One that injects a pithy 22.5+C 850 mb, well mixing payload into one of these, not since 594 dm become the new 588. These tall heights can do a lot of damage with ‘hone grown' cumulative thermal and consecutive days - like next week’s type. That's not to reduce 94/69 significance -that's ugly. But I wonder if something special lurks this summer, based in part upon early trends, in part upon other super telecon indicators with AAM and relaxed hemispheric velocities mapping over top a La Nina hangover. One of theses times we may hang a 25C 850 mb air mass over ORD with sights on BTV to PHL and Boston, but timing better with one of these atmospheric Tibetan Plateaus next week.

Not to steal the Pac NW's sunshine in this heat discussion... - it really interests me that the non-hydrostatic heights over Long Island ( ~ ) are destined/forecast to equal those astounding tropopause Tsar-bomba bulging heights in the Pac NW. Yet we are modest in the heat genesis. A some of that is because the hydrostatics integration takes energy to put theta-e content into the column, thus shrinking the V. That's not lowering distinction of the enormity of the event out west; weather they have DP to content with or not, above 98 F it really doesn't matter if the wind is still, the sun full, and one's acclimation is temperate. I feel we are/have been dodging extraordinary bullets here in the east - this isn't the first time when where one of these ridges emerged here, eclipsed in recognition it may be by some, ..owing to the fact that 94/70 is ugly but not as unusual. Playing with fire - Here's the deal, we have a method of dying hard here. It's called Sonoran heat release, where synoptic changes in the Pacific relay into western N America, sometimes dislodges and injects a pithy 22.5+C 850 mb, well mixing payload into one of these non-hydrostatic ridges - where by the thickness ( which is the DP integral) are thus free to expand. We have not observed a Sonoran heat release event since 594 dm become the new 588. These tall heights can do a lot of damage with ‘hone grown' cumulative thermal stowing from consecutive days in their own rights - like next week’s type will be from N VA to D.E.M. But I wonder if something special lurks this summer, as we are appearing to be in a post La Nina hang-over which tends to favor AAM/subtropical ridge robustness during warm season, and already, ..we are seeing them verify. One of theses times, we may hang a 25C at 850 mb over ORD with sights on BTV to PHL and Boston, and let us hope it is not timing with one of these atmospheric Tibetan Plateau sized ridges opening the garage door to park that delivery inside, because that would be like a "Hellraiser" scene at the prom if that happens.

"generally accepted" is tantamount to urban legend, first of all. Half of common wisdom is in fact 100% fallacy. Where there was intimation that one was better than the other, that is the wrong - we don't know that. That's conjecture and that's fine - that what we do here. Heh. I mean it's all good. But I also like the other point there, that this isn't wasn't an organically occurring virus in nature ( as evidence presently stands ) - so, it is unwise to assume an organically occurring immune system can mount a proportional and winning response. I mean, getting into sci fi ... but, it's a matter of time when human "genius" out does nature entirely, and creates some dastardly thing where there can be no response ... But that's a digression -