Typhoon Tip

The other way I know the warm ridge idea has legs is because every time since the mid 20teens there's one in the model, the operational GFS canes Cuba/Bahamas. it's like responding to numerical instability more than an actual system and then spontaneity in the physical processing of the model takes over and it just fabricates one - but it requires the deep layer easterly anomaly to the circulation mode down there, which is what happens when? duh duh dunnn... there's ridge over the eastern CONUS.

There's a low amplitude heat signal now for the 12th thru ~ the 18th ( ending is open ) It's showing up in all three major ens systems, EPS/GEFS/GEPS. The numeric equivalents, the teleconnections, have a negative PNA with a ( important distinction ) easterly limb -NAO... If that NAO does materialize but corrects west ...we'd be back door boned but that's not actually modeled to be the case at this time - just a precaution. Otherwise, there's not much else that looks capable at large scales of controlling the circulation identity. The major players will be a height rises NE of Hawaii over the E Pac Basin, which transmits to the western N/A trough response => eastern CONUS ridging. It just not huge at this time... but it is identifiable. If the wholesale gets a little more robust, than that weird weakness rattling around over the TV probably becomes less coherent/fills in - but it's not clear that's affecting up this far N anyway. Have to watch these... Sometimes these May heat surges can over perform because we're still tending to recover soil sourced theta-e, so the kinetic side of the temperatures can get nasty from rather tepid looking warm patterns - think synergistic over performance. This sort of thing happened up in NNE since 2020 a couple of times, sending them into the mid 90s when NY and Boston held at 85 Kind of a 564 to 569 thickness over 850s intervals to 14C for now.

will check back in later Monday ( tomorrow..). lol may not be so polar happy. j/k but seriously, some short term acclimation bias probably makes that seem particularly nasty. that high zipping N of Maine will send a (probable) non-described defused BD, or just acceleration SW of cold air through the area and it's fresh from Labrador's anus. Maybe crashing through the upper 40s NE-E zones by evening, with snapping flags and light soothing blue balls rain drops. Probably we just go modestly BN but light rains around through Tuesday before a bit of a bounce back on Wednesday.

and I just wonder, when the next warm ENSO phase arrives, what kind synergy results happen that next time. Does this set the stage for another 2023 global phenomenon.. Bear in mind, 2023 temperature event ( at an entire planetary integrated scale!!) was worse than unprecedented ... it was utterly not predicted, not by anything unaided foresight, nor technological assisted human vision. That event is more than a mere geological enigma. It's a silent doom siren ( to me ). This is intuitive ...but scratch calculations, with the assist of AI, only lend credence to the idea. In order to raise 1 cubic meter of ocean water by 1 degree Celsius, you need approximately 4,200 joules of energy. The oceans have ~ 3.6e+12 KM of surface area, which M is thus 3.6e+15 (3.6 quadrillion) square meters. In an (at least...) quick albeit gross assumption, the top 1 cubic meter of the oceans are virtually coupled to the thermal state of the atmosphere due to ongoing noise of turbulent exchange averages of the whole planetary system. Using that conceptually for our calculation implies 3.6e+15 X 4,200 joules = somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.5e+19 .. Just because it's fun to hear this in dialogue ... fifteen quintillion joules of energy. And, that all took place in basically a 45 day span back in late March to early May ( check that - ) of 2023. That was just the ocean. The atmosphere behaved in a similar delta during those 45 days, not lagged , which is an extra special creepy "omg-ism" in its own right - the whole system, ocean and air, SIMULTANEOUSLY surged by 1 deg C ( note, these are approximations for/in conjecture but in principle, we're conceptually correct). That part is a particularly troubling, non-intuitive observation. The contemporary understanding is that the atmospheric, vs oceanic system, are "QUASI" coupled - which means in laity that they only seem to be coupled, but really aren't at the point observation. Time is required in the total exchange thermal engine of the total system. Such that over time, the oceans store/lose temperature from multiple sources, then, non-linear feedback processes, over time, effects the atmosphere, and vice versa. They are not suppose to unilaterally "explode", simultaneously. There's been a lot of floated insights and studies - not criticism whatsoever. However, I haven't read anything that specifically addresses what took place from this kind of approach - and personally, I am 100% confident that answering that question should be priority 1; particularly when adding that "...it was utterly not predicted by anything unaided foresight, or technological assisted human vision" . Because that means we did not see and we did not know, had zero sense of that destiny. *Blind sided* Be that as it may ... let's include the atmosphere's contribution to the energy - obviously this has all likely been calculated million times ... to far greater confidence precision than all this but I'm just having fun here. To raise the temperature of 1 cubic kilometer of air by 1 degree Celsius, approximately 1e+12 joules of energy is required. Just using the troposphere (lowest layer) of the total atmospheric volume, there is 6e+12 (trillion) cubic KMs of atmosphere down here (we'll also assume for concept-model a well mixed temperature rise too place through the tropospheric depth). So ... 1e+12 joules/KM X (6e+12 cu KMs) => 6e+24 ... six septillion KJ of energy added from "some unknown source", to the atmosphere, between late March and early May of 2023 The adding the ocean and atmosphere together is too close to that six septillion KJ number to really report that as 6.015e+24 so just take the larger numeric expression alone and go with it - error notwithstanding. Comparing this to the all of the nuclear arsenal of the world being unleashed, all at once ... according to AI assist, the U.S. alone has a total 5.3e+18 yield if the total cache were expended (2000 devices). I don't know what the Soviets have, and China has, and India ...or other capable nations bring to the table, but just for argument's sake, this number may be tripled. I'm getting tired of looking this up for the course of this thought experiment - which is based on approximations and less fully vetted anyway... but, 3(5e+18) works out to 1.5e+19 ... if perhaps just a quirk of error, notwithstanding, this is same eerie value as that 1.5e+19 from the oceanic contribution arrived to from above. Given that the margin for error in the assumptions of metrics going into this little arithmetic/thought experiment could be several orders of magnitude in the nuclear yield estimate, that puts this imm abv number into a similar value as the 6e+24 ... Basically, what we observed in 2023 is like a complete commitment global holocaust's worth of a thermal footprint. Maybe merely symbolic to say ... but this "symmetry of doom" really is a pretty terrible optic that argues humanity's been playing with dad's end-game-gun for a long while.

Looking at high res vis loop you can tell the cu field east of EEN-HFD is moving more N than E ... I've seen this sort of failure set up before. We'll see how it works out today ... but as those broken lines move across that axis described above, there may be weakening

depends ... the epo won't give up on the baseline in the GEFs ... it's not the same implication as January, no. but, we can still get these blocking nodes well into June some years... -epo can set that table. I'm a little leery of those ice cubes in the warm punch. but yeah, otherwise, both it and the EPS longer lead telecons are an endlessly negative PNA mode, and the AO's seasonally ko'd

Probably not ... wall of impenetrable didn't get warm enough in time clearly stuffing CAPE ... Cu field's not advancing out of NY too well

surged to 77

Well thankfully ...this is what I said: "We may actually scour out prior to the real warm front moving through over the course of the next several hours ... but, if that happens the high intense sun will then process the shit out of the prefrontal inversion and we may see a "frontal leap" up to a bicycle ride S of Brian where it stalls until next spring ..." Which is exactly what happened, bold. Brian might be hosed though hopefully The last hour we went from 62 to 74 here and probably we still have a shot at the upper 70s given to heating at this time of year lasting until 4 oclock,

we'll be hosed here until the last physical second the cold is allowed to hold out. I've noticed that in these fudge-packed labored warm lube jobs that that N. Middlesex and western Essex counties up here will slab cold even when PSM in NH is S at 14 F temperature jumps.

Temp ? I've been monitoring this site all morning ( provided by the Grand Rapids MI NWS ) and you can see/get a feel for where the warm frontal erosion axis is... Looks at glance like it's hung around NYC but judging by sat/vis loop ... you wonder if we'll get a processing leap when/if the skies improve.

Your sky's gotta be glowing at least now looking at high res vis loop. We may actually scour out prior to the real warm front moving through over the course of the next several hours ... but, if that happens the high intense sun will then process the shit out of the prefrontal inversion and we may see a "frontal leap" up to a bicycle ride S of Brian where it stalls until next spring

I suspect all weather dweebs had their chosen vantage points and would return to them, like a bear remembers a meal, when ever conditions qualified as an opportunity to eat in the specter of the clouds. Mine was the Coldwell Bankers/Insurance parking lot. It wasn't terribly huge, but Acton is one of those used to be forest townships typically found E of the Worcester Hills and west of I95; scoured out over 150 years of white man cometh farming and cow paths, turned eventually into single story shopping plazas separated by two-lane roads. There's still modestly wooded neighborhoods like all townships of this ilk, but that's not too ideal for dweebing. There were fields over by Acton/Boxborough Regional High School... Baseball and football complexes. Tennis courts etc. That town gentrified straight from 1960 provincial town Americana conservatism, right to self-righteous yuppification through the 1980s and '90s... replete with ultra competitive socially abusing rich shit assholes. Imagine a "Beverly's 90210" clone, only uncensored reality. The town actually built a parking lot for the high school students ( high school students!). On any given day ...one might see a BMW SUVs parked out among the other vehicles that no mere Junior in high school has any business sniffin' the interior of... Little oligarch larvae. I dunno. But it's a helluva lot different than when I was there hiding, lest risk ridicule for standing in fields watching TCU's poke up over the tree-lines ... waiting passionately to hear distant thunder murmurs. In other words ... kind of off-limits. I used stand there, arms crossed, in the old Coldwell parking lot, sometimes for up to an hour... I came to be known by the employees, too. Like, omg? What a dork... You ever think back to a time or place or event whence you were a part, and just seethe in private embarrassment? But one time someone emerged from the front of the building and as they passed by, she said, "We see you out here; what are looking for?" I had to laugh... I explained that I was a Meteorology major, the college I was attending ... prefacing the response regarding observing the thunder clouds. That actually made me feel a lot less self-conscious about being a creepy figure just loitering around outside their office windows... haha. She actually took interest and sidled up next to me and started looking at the features I was pointing out to her. Quite validating actually. I wasn't just a chapter out of a J.D. Salinger novel. I don't do that for every day crispy TCU's anymore. You get older and the art of it is reused. But, I do upon occasion stop and gawk if there's suspicion for rotation or just exceptional circumstances in general.

you can't anyway. You're too obstructed from ground truth in every direction. If not an elevation blocking view it's forest or trees in general ...and if not trees, it's church steeples. Maybe you could photo a steeple, digitally turn it upside down, doctor it up a tad and call it a day - hahaha. hell, they call 'em the 'finger of god' anyway.

these laboring warm frontal days are a paint drying slog. It's cutting across middle NJ but looking at hourly obs it appears to be moving north and will be up here mid afternoon, unless there's some sudden broader scaled mix out/leap in position which sometimes happens in these tuck regions E of the els.. I could see it being 62/57 murk at 2pm and agonizing ...then at 3:45 pm it's suddenly 77/65 as far N as ASH - Brian should be dammed and damned until tomorrow. If we can peel away more of the mid and high level gunk, then the sun may help to speed this up too. We're less than a week before the doorway into the solar max time of year. Long journey that seemed like a nightmare hallway stretching out of reach this time. I think I'm getting older.

hoping for some good CB scapes but that looks like it may deteriorate into a grunge warm sector sky type... which is all distant rumbles. At least it's warm. Saturday's sort of transformed into a deep warm sector day as the week went on.

chilly but no frost. 40 Massive solar loading yesterday so the battery was fully charged going into the night. Plus, with green up accelerating we're adding WV into the diurnal thermal state/cycle. These two factors probably helped the typical radiators from bottoming out lower.

Made it to 70 ..

I'd be willing to sacrifice some days now, for the UKMET to verify ... so that the word stein is never again floated this summer and/or can be set to ignore

up to 67 here.. d-slope/kadabatic flow combined with nearing solar max intensity, unobstructed sun perhaps offsets. I'm noticing the d-slope wind direction is just about ideally 320 deg, too. It's stunning outside. It is for the hour a perfect top 1 interval of time. We'll see how the afternoon goes

The 00z EPS and GEPs means agree with the principle aspects between 60 and 96 hours, but the GEFs ( and the operational GFS included) do not agree. The EPS/GEPs have more diving mechanics through 100 W in that range. The GEFs ( what's new) lean more progressive in just enough crucial amount that it bi-passes the diving/severing wave space. What's happening at hemispheric scales in the 60 to 120 hours is a coherent d(contraction) N of the entire circumpolar westerlies - A.K.A., the rising annular mode or a +d(Arctic Oscillation) That large scale behavior 'abandons' the ongoing wave transports at mid latitudes, and they end up cut off lows. if/when/whether one sets up between the TV and NE regions has a lot of wiggle room as far as where, and to what scale/degree of amplitude. One aspect about the GFS I've noticed is that it at times sags the mean polar jet latitude out of nowhere - wholesale. When it does, like the 06z version ... it's like it's stepping back 45 days of seasonal change. I think the rising annular mode is likely to occur, as it's own telecon is positive. And I've noted in the past the GFS does the over aggressive N stream. So I find the GFS solution suspect in this case... based on that known behavior, combined with the weight of the other ens means - which also have the rising annular mode. I figure for some form or another of cut-off is probable. But as is usually the case, this is where/when the models perform their worst, pinning down how much and where. Goes to figure ... they've been all over the place with this thing for the last 4 or 5 day's worth of model cycles. It could be a very weak system in the TV with a over arching warm ridge spilling 'over the top'.... ranging to a Del Marva gyre that pumps a seasonal corrective QPF load. Deterministically all this will be helped/depends on how the flow is handled between 60 and 96 hours as the models transport through ~ 100 W across the continent.

CNN: Millennials are giving Gen Z advice for their first potential recession ...oh yeah, how about, think the next time before you cast a flippant vote, flouting the virtuosity of knowing what the fuck your doing -

oh, it was the 06z GFS with that lewd west retro thing. But even this 12z idea strains cred for me by some. The 00z GFS is probably closer to what happens thu D10.

I feel that is unlikely to happen. It's bordering on absurd closing a NS/NF mid/ua low and then drilling almost to BUF. For one, that has never happened like that in the 35 years I've been privy to modeling technology - pretty much the whole way... In objective fairness, I suppose it is not IMpossible ... if the model's selling things that are, that would be a pretty bad deterministic tool, huh. But the unlikeliness being what it is ( based on history; based on 'wtf how could it' ), lends to an expose of error. I think the Euro is far in way more reasonable. I could see a weaker cut off getting caught in the ridge amber down there. That's not unusual, although it's perhaps at a slightly lower latitude than climo. It also dumps in a small portion of new dynamics, helping to regrograde. Personally...? I think there's some chance that it's all overblown.