Typhoon Tip

there's a trend i don't like. i mean i agree with the above, in principle - i boasted a post last evening showing something similar myself. however, about two weeks ago we were drooling over eps/gefs/geps means that looked similarly and/or canonically fantastic. yet, here we are. as i was annotating/describing above...strife with this irritating rolled over trough look. that is what's materialized out of said 13 day outlook/footprint from back then. that, become this at a broader/seasonal perspective ... it shouldn't sit well with folks that we're burning up the first 10 days of january, with a la nina february on deck after the last 7 years worth of them ...half have had 70 to 80 - during an ever-attributable cc thing no less... yikes i'll call the systems that show up in the 2 week window, either way... but outside of that effort, this winter is like Costanza in line at the soup nazi kitchen, "you're pushing your luck little man"

it's really only one way ... correct below, a lot of this consternation goes away. all these troughs in the flow ( really have to look at it in a mercadian vantage to see it - ) are positively tilted. a lot of these winters have this a leitmotif where any positive heights are trying to 'fold over'. like ridge top wave breaking. the reason is complicated ... probably won't communicate very well buuut it's due to quickening ambient velocities near the seam of where the Ferrel circulation interfaces with mid latitude westerlies - roughly 55 N at this time of year. steeper gradients around the hemisphere --> jet responses and westerly momentum are increased ( in the means ). ...we end up with structures like this... it may be attribution frankly ( 'attribution' in the context refers to a part of cc expression ). much to the chagrin of the eye rolling that started 2.4 seconds ago - anyway, those bigger bombs that took place out around the "dependable" ( lol ) day 12's? they occurred whenever this tipping tendency was less. i noticed that. in fact, whenever the troughs even hint at neutrality, almost in lock step there was more proficiency in cyclonic genesis points. it may be that this predicament has become what that prefix syllable implies: a "pre" condition. one that is perhaps built in and has to be overcome nowadays. it just lowers the odds that any neg tilted phase hard-on out in time will ever make into interior time frames, in tact.

i didn't make that up just out of fun - i was studying the material after viewing the documentary, 'the social dilemma,' several years ago. the show was produced by early google and facebook engineers that left those positions 'for moral' reasons because they knew that what they were doing was a kind of a social engineering. the whole industry really stumbled on to the following: blue light/psychotropic addiction, and the needle is doom scrolling... then later on, 60 minutes did a whole segment expose' on the phenomenon of it. they interviewed these people that said in first person how they worked on algorithms that tailor to a person's scrolling tendencies, with ever more gas lighting and other manipulative psycho babble tactical shit - the motive for doing so, enter here [ ] doesn't need to be listed. so,... why it matters in here is because ... the medium is in fact blue lighting and doom scrolling for that model cinema effect. some of us have joked in the past that seems a lot of users are even less interested in the storm, as much as they seek the guidance that illsutrates it ahead of time? that phenomenon is likely real, and ... it exposes this. people are prone to transfixing in here just like any of these other virtual presentations of reality - just like on any other of those medias. op ed/digression: it's a small part of my general posit that humanity is in fact moving through an evolutionary experiment, where technology has become a proxy in how we survive and/or fail this. - it's a vast science. global birthing rates are crashing to (supposedly) dangerously low levels.. - that's an interesting adjective, when population is too large anyway. from that, to the proliferation and really shocking increase in occurrences of mass violence by single individuals, and (possibly more importantly ...) those that have found one another on the web and are thus empowered loons for finding others like them. these are all being emergent modalities that are quite well timed with the ambit of tech changes that has gripped all societies outside the jungles since roughly the mid or late 1970s ...when television because ubiquitous, and varied, enough to pull one's motivation away from the community - that was really the most primitive beginnings of an internet.

guys ...we're inside of 108 hours on that 6th deal ...it's a now caster/correction if at all, at this point... you can rock back and forth, self-soothing in hope counting down to model output times over the next run but it's too unlikely to be significantly enough different to bother... sig changes in the mass field/handling over western n/a in this 12z gfs wrt to the lead up to the 10/11th

hence 'blue baller' model. it'll get so close to trigger but won't actually "suck"

this icon ... we should just call it the 'blue baller' model

heh... question is, is it real - the models can make giga movements that aren't sustained, too

18z euro btw makes our point from the other day about how nuanced modulation in the amt of back drill exertion from up north (nao idiosyncratic handling..) can mean big changes to cyclone placement... it's still going to be a razor wall on the n side ( 7th ) but this run shifted that deform axis considerably north. another shift of that magnitude and we're probably getting snows into sne

wow ... it's way and hell and gone out at the temporal horizon but that is a kidney bean 2 wave cross polar flow here

yeah ..this effort turned out useful for up north. we're also getting some interesting top down dynamics cooling and ivt cat paws going over to snow down here, too. interesting..

either the atmosphere or the models are running just a spectacular experiment in maintaining a lit match next to glycerine without ever detonating anything. this aspect you've noted, '..these runs aren't afraid to put out absolute bombs...' ? that's just the experiment like accidentally failing for a second, and said potential tunneling through the block of all COC blocks... i realize i've admonished the troubles with fast hemispheres over the last decade, probably ad naseum for a few users, but ...mm, i'm not sure that is all that is causing this exotic potential to just exist indefinitely - therefore, i'm inclined to think the models are the problem ( thus ...) but pure supposition. and that's slim solace until storm actually manifests. which ever it is, it just seems it should be physically impossible to sustain what is actually fucking sustaining so something probably should break. weird. it is about as baffling as those 955 mb lows are extreme -

more impressed frankly that the main players are still identifiable through the frames … so as at least for the mean time, decent continuity considering range

heh … more likely warm seclusion but yeah. this is still precariously close to a similar 18z … just missed capture by a little

N/stream backed way off. still involved but slips the phase on this rendition.

Lol heard about thru the grapevine

Thanks… Yeah, these are interesting result comparisons but this isn’t ultimately what I was discussing. I was focused on modeling history and what was the most wholesale mechanically powerful thing ever modeled? I completely forgot about the superstorm of 93 though - I’m not sure that got this deep though. Nor did it have heights cord out quite as deep as what this is

This is going to sound rather bunnable , but just bear with me for a moment… the operational version has been wildly oscillating between a complete ghost, to these upper tier manic solutions and that’s supposed to be the higher resolution souped up variant of the ensemble system. in other words more stable. firstly, considering we’re beyond 200 hours there is no real responsibility to accuracy here to be fair. still, the wild variability of the operational version does not lend very much confidence that the ensemble system knows what the fuck is going on out there either frankly that goes for all models at present time.. the only confidence inspiring aspect as far as i’m concerned is still the intense signal beacon that’s been looming between the eighth and the 12th of the month for so long - confident if at least a favorable time in that sense. it’s just that when you pop off at giant solution like this in the middle of a strong probability region of time … should at least take notice.

Yeah, I thought about that storm; but this one surpasses that as modeled. I’m not really sure about the actual DP/dt of the Cleveland superbomb - that’s like some kind of buried ultra nerd data fantasy vital scoring. I guess I could search for awhile … but I’m speaking specifically to the model governing parametrics in the wholesales synopsis across the continent. I’ve never seen such a massive SPV plumbed deeper than 500 dam - executing such a high proficiency subsuming scenario on top of it is really in totality just beyond the extraordinary. it’s really just for ogling model potentials tho … doubt very much that will pass the reality test.

it's not a point of analysis because anyone thinks that run is happening - we've already stated it's unlikely. .. . but, what i said is right - that low, in that depiction, produces a pan-dimensional, very high end wind problem.

won't load for me. but maybe yeah. i mean it's not a challenge - i really don't know

huh? kidding right? you can't take a 971 mb low 20 mi s of montauk point, drop it another 20 mb and stall it over nashua nh before resuming a motion ne without the entire surrounding planetary atmospheric mass denisity collapsing into that pressure well like st helen's landslide... not without a crippling grid reconstruction requirement. decapitating trees. roofs sent along like a frisbee show doing skipping tricks.

i seriously can't find anything like that in history... i wonder if there's ever been anything like that in 'model history'

i know - that was not intended to say it's category 5 equivalence.. but those kind of d(p) are more common with extraordinary events, principle

pivotal's depiction is 971 to 951 in 6 hours...so that's 40 mb in 12 hours. that's competing with a few of these cat 5 hurricane observed ri events as of late. - just a little perspective

yeah ..that too. snow isn't really a part of that solution for sne