Typhoon Tip

Yeah I think it’s got hemispheric footing. That’s no testament to amplitude ... but the tellies and post ENSO may favor +AAM leading str ridging. GOM development too

Next weekend looks pretty dam warm tho

Hey Wiz ... I think Thursday might be the next convection headline - The GFS and Euro ( in a remarkable twist ..>) agree on a D5 chart, features a vestigial S/W passing through that day, with a wind max similarly moving astride N of the region, with a small 565 thickness bulge propagating/warm frontal wedge possibly poking in. That day has that look to me of that classic presage 12z elevated convective grumbling that moves off with haze skies to 80/65, with interesting shearing mechanics in place ... Again, what's up with weak lapse rates this year? But having the right entrance/exit jet relay passed with a c-front out there PA/NY is prooooobably not a bad general layout... Both guidance say we roll from that into the first more convincing heat wave... I mean BTV-BOS-LGA-ALB and points in-between < 900 els 91-94 Sat-Mon?

I thought so too up until 3 days ago but yeah, that ship sailed soon after. I think this is comically devastating to Mem day weekend aspirations ... it starts raining at 4-6 pm Friday... clears abruptly and turns rather pleasant on Tuesday morning around 12 z Perfectly cookie cutter destruction and insult - haha

D5 thru 10 of the Euro is above to substantially above normal T with gaining DP through the period. Hang on summer enthusiasts - this is but a 1 step back along a 2 step forward sort of progression it would seem ... I've also noticed some 'sloshing' in the 12z versus 00z runs...the 12z's seem more dome manifold but the 00z's try to impose little ...almost like convective induce vort shrapnel, and turns them into actual ablative S/Ws... Not sure which is right. Truth be told, it was unusually to have strung 80s with lollies to 91 or 94 like that. So..., I almost wonder if the 10 mean will be almost average actually. - I wonder. But, there is a GEFs agreement with a plummeting PNA.. .which is also neutralized NAO. The latter may actually be the more important at this time of year ( longer term correlative scope..) but...you have to go by the in situ reality ...and the hemisphere is still fast with identifiable R-wave nodes so it's likely the weight of the falling PNA is more telling. The Euro ends up finally relaxing the flow more - ironically ...But it sort of leaves the set up in a big ridge /+AAM look with nothing after to settle it back ...that's mutable but we'll see. Beneficial rain continue tomorrow at the possible sacrifice of a Little League ballparks strash can partially submerged next to that eager low-land stream they put those facilities next too. I swear, they do that so that emptied ketchup packs float out to 2nd base. But we should then be over seasonal norms in rain with 0 justification ... offense punishable by permanent banning if anyone says the f'um name Stein again for any reason ... but we dream -

yup... it's never gon' snow again - cuz of global warming

It's typically rural mentality here in Ayer, Mass this morning. The only grocery store in town has people with masks either not on at all, on completely like they still seek the womb... or pulled down to the chin as some sort of vague virtue vestige. The clerk tells me they are going with the state protocol but are "...Leaving it up to the customers if the wanna wear them" I'm thinking, "that is the dumbest 'policy' I've ever hear" - like what's the f'n alternative ? Make people take off their masks?? This is the rural world of western civility - Bottom line is, you don't have to wear the damn thing - just say that ... plebeian ftl. It's also consistent with rural mentality to keep going masks with that half and half ... They'll do so until they either start to feel silly as it sinks in 'gee - I don't have to wear this.' Some may never get that message though - I mean, mask wearing due to industrial air contamination in parts of China is part of normal scenery down streets and thoroughfares in their urban settings in the best of times. And with pathogenic fears now that cannot be resolved with logic and facts ( eh hm) as carried on by the razor sharp brain bastion of the 75th percentile... you can assume a goodly number of Americans will also just be permanent mask devoted... At least - I wonder so ...

Looking at the 00z NAM ...not sure flood headlines won’t be needed

well... technically, Kevin, you may get your share of that chart's total, tonight - We all agree it's raining a goodly amount, pan-dimensional Also - you may get your brown out .. .ER crowded, soccer practice heat stroke pattern in the first week of June - in fact, this could be an ominous signal for heat through the 15th ...

Well hold it... As a contributor to the last page ..page and half of sentiment, just wanna be clear - I'm not saying there is some cabal pulling strings and we're all their automatons - that's lunacy. There is a "soft-conspiracy" though.. Hard is when A, Y, Beta, Gamma, Zinc cabal work clandestine in cahoots. Soft is when human beings are just c*s and they all do the same things of ethically flexible, if not outright immoralility for the same shitty selfish motivations, in the same way. It's funny, that gives the faux impression of connectivity but it's just that we don't deviate amongst our selves, or in organization... nearly as uniquely as our conceits tend to believe we do. LOL The aspects of SAR-Cov-2 being man-made is not new. The purpose for it - mmm... worthy of investigation. The truth is, it may have merely been lacks and/or just outright failure in routine safety protocols that started it all. In fact, it probably was - the U.S. research ambit does the exact same thing they probably were doing, prior to this bug getting out into the population. Our scientists determine the method for virus infection ..and then 'goose' their capacity to do so, because it speeds up the research arc if the bug in question is more proficient. Doing so, ... this could have happened in either society. Maybe they were over-worked techs. Maybe they don't have as rigorous safety this that and other... That's more like the simpler explanation. ...I snarked that it was weapons research - the problem is they have a non-disclosure history with foreign sovereignty, about the way they've always interacted with the world outside their borders ... Not helping that they have been cagey about this thing all along - did we forget their inconsistencies from a year ago already? That's their choice. But xenophobia doesn't really lend to trust - and that's a pickle... And when I was saying this likely went to the top - I only meant that I suspect Pentagon top intelligence knows exactly where this came from, already; and similar to the 1960s probe into JFK's assassination, ...the investigation stopped at the door of the KGB's possible link for a reason - trust me...it's in the world's better interest if we just say it was a Wuhan lab screw up and be done with it.

? ease off the reactionary hostiliy dial - we just talkin here heh And INVESTOR CALL does not mean anything to me - if that is some b-acumen vernacular ..okay - whatever. But that doens't mean anything -

yeah...sort of thinking that too .. but... these models don't put out 'impossible' solutions, either. I mean if they did, they wouldn't be modeling weather ..they just be a waste of electronics. heh

And that's what makes the menially socially aware infuriated - knowing that if 20 % of the dip shit population is conned by fear mongering, that's what ... 60 million arms to jab and make future profits. They need to shut f up - until really needed. And the speculation originated out of their corporate spread sheets does not count as need. LOL ...yeah... I'm probably not the right person to have this discussion so I'm gonna bail. The aspect of (money+human interest)/2 = part of the Fermi Paradox explanation... but that's a whole 'nother rabbit hole.

Mm ... not sure what your point is, but concealing real intent behind a guise of virtuosity - that is inherently sowing distrust ... A person or entity's vested interests raise a question of whether their actions are unbiased, a.k.a 'conflict of interest' ...fails in this case because jab needles with foreign substances into one's personal being is not trivial ... jesus christ. We can get around that.... The good for humanity should be achieved without being deceptive to back-door a gain while doing it.

on my knees, no doubt -

This resonates loudly for all those with low I.Q.s and toe-the-line, easily manipulated/guided mentalities. Not saying that is you... but, any big pharma in the context of this thing that gets to make money in a future of fear - leading boosters if not new vaccine incentives, making such a claim, is a pretty clear and cut example bad taste/conflict of interest for the rest of us. We'd should like to read/hear this from a non- big econ affiliated research origins, and/or corroborated and endorsed therefrom.. But, drilling this down from that conceptual "cynicism" - ... yeah, we know this? That strikes me as ad masquerading as PSA warning... There are new common cold variants every year. New Influenza A and B variants ...every year. There will be new SAR-Cov-2 variants ...every year. We've known this all along. It's probably connect to the first concept above... they're engineering their future industry - if they feel so virtuous about it, just do it. Let us live our lives...and if we need them, we do. If we don't, they can go work a menial job like the rest of us -

Christ I dunno - ... I my nerdliness only goes so deep lol

Interesting... the NAM is also several DM deeper than the Euro with the trough at the end of the weekend, too God are we nerds -

oh, okay ...I was implicitly clear all morning and going back to the summer of 2017 that I don't use the GFS - lol- Do you program these sounding tools with the Euro parameters ? I'm curious what those look like. The Synoptic charts at Pivotal are 40 to 50 kts at 500 mb sigma, between 60 and 72 hours..and paltry at 700 mb. That's actually an interesting model fight there. I mean yeah ... 70 kts is substantially more conservation of mass argument forcing ...where 45 kts in the Euro is probably below the atmosphere threshold ... No wonder - This is an experimental op! We should see how this trough verifies because... The Euro is shallower with the trough depth by 60 hours ..by 6 to 10 dm, and GFS being deeper likely atones for it having to accommodate that depth with fast mlv winds

what ? where are you seeing that -

Mm ...no, not 'screaming' (2nd bold). Getting a bit excited ? This is really a 'weak setup' .. .One that is in a sense getting lucky that there aren't butterflies flapping wings to interfere. Those are 30 ...maybe 40 kt streamline geostrophic flows coming around the eastern side of a filling trough at levels ... But yeah tonight ... unusual polar pressure wall uprights the 700 mb flow over the surface front to maximize isentropic lift rains. They can gush... I don't have a problem with emerald greening the lawns ... but after that surge peels away tomorrow ... Does the vestigial frontal washout like the ICON... Or, does it surge N with the extremeness of the NAM.

Yeah ... 'frontogenesis' is right - as in, the temperature gradient along an actual warm front. The more I look at this...it appears like the "fuzzier" physics of mid range modeling were 'miss-interpreting' the whole weekend as a slow moving coastal/Nor'easter. But as we are getting into the short range on this thing ...it's devolving away from that to more of lead warm frontal wave tonight, followed by a murk day tomorrow afternoon in wait as the whole vestigial baroclinic axis retrogrades back N as a warm front. I think "Pope" poster ...like 'jenet' can't recall his handle ...here it is, jbenedet, mentioned this yesterday, credit to him, but I agreed at the time: heights are trying to bulge WAR-like back west toward the EC.. You can actually see this in the D4-10 Euro ...in the sense that it's trend over the last few cycles is to raise height everywhere over the east coast ...and in order to get there...the support for that sort of cyclogen is washing out .. OR, just notice the mid level/500 mb trough circumvallate is filling. In fact, by 60 hours, the 00z oper. Euro is 576 dm in a state of rapid filling...and the GFS is still trying to fester a 568 dm hole with that thing. I've been wailing about the GFS depth bias for months... strikes me suspect

Sorry I'm late to the ball-game ...haven't seen much since yesterday until just this last hour. It looks like the Euro's 12z to 00z trend is trying to edge the "second wave" (Sunday/Mon) farther E in time but ... the American models are hinting ...this whole synopsis is slowly devolving away from cyclogenesis, to more of an active overrunning soupy warm front. The GFS still thinks it's the blizzard of '78 regardless .. I've seen these countless times... The cold front that came trough yesterday does have a minoring lead wave along tonight... tho vastly over wrought in recent NAM solutions... But then that smears off and heights abandon and fill on either side, and leave the surface trough as more of a theta-e leading edge and a DP surge that moves back N with retrograding vestigial frontal pressure trough... It could actually be ( warm and muggy relatively speaking...) Sunday evening, though wet as hell. ..then the whole thing just sort of disappears late Monday... and then the rest of next week looks like 78/73 murk with mold problems ... great. SIgnificant heat trying to set up in the extended... we'll see on that. But the ..."unusual aspects" of this weekends over-arcing synoptic evolution means that there is bit higher uncertainty involved. Maybe one can get lucky. Otherwise, I think this is not an outdoor weekend.

So I take it that is the final verdict ... James died from complications involved with COVID ?

Symbolically as tho it is happening at us like it’s personal.