Typhoon Tip

It's not - There's a stenchy sort of image mystique in saying 'I was up skiing Tuckermen's It's not absolute friend. - "probably conform" is another way of just saying "tend" to do so. It's an assessment, done at time of foot-in-the-door, particularly in situations when conforming isn't really costing anything. I don't think that processing is happening when one shows up to a setting thinking it's okay to saunter their way in with no intent to evaluated what is/was happening before they arrived. That's all. We are talking almost about common mores and behavior decency at that point. Gentile? And I think your missing the point on the virtue of not triggering others - maybe you just don't see that value. That's okay - we'll let that go. I will add IMHO the world is way loaded with triggers and stimulus - WOKE this and 'cancel culture' are all recreational outrage, etc, that go too far. Obviously racism and prejudice are bad - but these cultural modes won't work frankly. We have to educate, but not like showing people how to derive the Quadratic Formula, but to that kind of modality will come from ala mode spanning generations. That's what fixes that stuff - But that's another rabbit hole. We need more patience and gentility. Less stick of one's personal doctrine space. No one is that important and part of the decay of civility is actually defined by intolerance. I like William Shatner's recent aphorism .. something like, 'Take it easy - because in the end, none of this matters'

GFS model is relentless in its intent to undermine the spatial attributes of the next week's ridge, which concomitantly means it shortens the length of time of the anomaly, too. End result, middling warm up. This doesn't compare very well with the EPS, GEPs, nor the operational version of these ens familys, nor its own GEFs mean. Three run -cycles in a row, it has been definitively less amplified in both spatial and temporal aspects, comparing to these other guidance sources/methods, wrt to the entire over-arcing thematic pattern. It is likely to be less correct. I - personally - believe this is owing to that particular model's horrible and coherently bright and embarrassing bias to cumulatively lower heights on the polar side of any jet; usually gets noticeable around D4 at individual mid level vortex featrues, but grows out side of those to engulf the areal expanses between. Such that the entire region of the Ferrel cell - thanks Brian lol - can and usually does average some 6 to as much as 12 dam lower than all the other global numerical models and blends therein, sometimes as near in time as the far side of the mid range, day's 5-7. This does not lend to early detection of specifically, heat. It's good that the flagship America guidance rides the short-bus when it comes to detecting precisely and specifically N. Hemispheric summer seasonal heat - a crucial threat that is the most dire in a warm CC crisis - Good work! Was this on purpose? Was this deniers infiltrating the modeling offices - kidding Anyway, I may be over-stating it a little, but what it is doing since 12z run ( yesterday ) fits with that problem just too elaborately well to believe it. The operational Euro has it's quirks with other conserved curvature and amplitude out there too - but in this case, it fits so well with its EPS mean, and other cross-guidance techniques, it's like handling matter better. This looks like a planetary event. Basically, it's probably keyed into GWO/AAM passage and will thus swell and decay along that frequency - which probably takes 7 to 10 days to pass longitude. I also agree that before the end of that period, the tendency to establish/return a NW flow into Maritimes may levy a tax against New England with BDs stealing some time away as a possibility. Most likely after next Tuesday

Not yet. The GEFs mean is about par with the previous cycle. That IS the first model run where that particular blend was even, not more, than its previous - I mean it's gotta cap soon. We are not ultimately going to balloon heights to a step off altitude with the moon's orbit - lol... It'll probably max and bounce around run-to-run... Hotter than normalcy is still the higher confidence status for next week. The extremeness of it and whether there is qualitative 'big heat' embedded within that general ~ week of positive departures is still unknown.

Yeah I was more after droll humor with hand stuff - ... I'm sure there are circumstantial exceptions based on nuanced timing. Guy gets out of the shop, has 22 minute to drive 30 minutes or his kid's standing in the rain with no one left at the soccer field... - duh. But I'm aiming the rant specifically about adults with bad hygiene -

To each his own... ? I tend to evade confrontation as much as possible -then get pissed off and angry five days later and swear at the wall in the shower - LOL anyway, if something really important is on the line, I'll swell chest and stare down the assailing force - however, beyong our petty contrivances of indispensable dignity in reality most of us living, that is seldom necessary - just imho. 'sides, I think we're talking about about the same thing - in part - anyway. I more than less had, 'whatever the establishment wants' in mind. However, if I walk in...and the establishment has an 'up to the discretion of the person' policy in place, and everyone is wearing one, I'll probably do so just because I'm socially aware; because it is not hurting me to conform and be the bigger man for predicting how not to incense the 'asshole rube' ... With intelligence comes responsibility - if one is smart enough to detect triggers, it their responsibility not to flick them on.

Improvements in ceilings happening now. Interesting cloud pattern observing the morning hi res loops ( vis ). Had that standing wave effect look to it. But, that seems to be peeling away and I can see blue slots west and this is confirmed on sat now. probably ends up mostly sunny 2 to 6

Trade off. Biology evolved the sentience of infinite awareness, thus supplying the sentience - ironically - the knowledge of their absolute finality. It doesn't matter if humans beat the race of exhausting resources, or - just run fast enough to outpace the apocalypse wave that is unavoidable triggered by all this advancement ( catch -22isms) here on Earth. Because whether here, or there, or beyond 'there' ..one cannot cheat death - in either outcome the finality of the civility still takes place. I guess the idea is just to win more time.

You just keep your clean mask folded in a quick access pocket. If you walk into a joint, and obvious social cues flag needing to conform, if not ease in by 'virtue signaling,' why get into a row over it? Just don the f'n thing. It'll motivate you to conduct business and flee. Which is intrinsically better that way, anyway, because less packing people anywhere is obviously consistent with distancing. Which many of these measures, designed to slow the spread - not necessarily stop it - are still always valid. Be it masks, or distancing. Hand sanitizing. Not the masks, but heh, washing hands and distancing isn't a bad thing in world where new pathogens are increasingly more likely. Clean hands - I need to rant, cuz I see this everywhere. Clean that disgusting black scunge out from under your fingernails? I mean, these are folks washing their hands, yet there's black lines under their thumbnails. Adults, mind you. It's like there should have been social distancing, masks, hand sanitizers, mandatory closures, and, basic hygiene demo huts or something - I dunno. Teach these 45-year olds children how to wipe their f'n bums.

I forgot to actually look at the RH values/altitudes, yesterday -ha. I just assumed we'd be sunnier - oops. Ok, so partly sunny. Either way, turned heat back off. Windows open. Euro ensemble mean, and operational, flagging near/at historic heat early next week. Synoptically, the operational flat out supports Monday and or Tues at or above 97F, HFD to LWM to PWM. Still D6 so we wait, but it's a signal that's been " cooking" for days tho (ha). Spanning four consecutive runs, the EPS, GEFs and GEPs had increased the ridge in both the X and Y coordinates - i.e., wider and taller, another way to say hotter. The 0z continued that growth trend, now eclipsing 590 heights, centered roughly eastern OH to southern Jersey. Sorry y'all. I'm kind of a nerd about temperature extremes. When it comes to heat, love hate relationship. Hate living through them, but they are fascinating to watch get engineered in the models. - meantime, couple of beauts with some convection Thursday, getting increasingly humid. Saturday we transition. Which I wonder if 18 to 00z Thursday afternoon and evening, we may end up in a warm baroctropic wedge with decent helicity, while a right entrance wind max at 500 mb starts slicing into NW zones around 21z. That seems to be the gist of the layout from the higher res model types. If we can get a blue tinted hillside sunshine say 1- 5 pm, that might get interesting.

I mean. Nothing like a 22 temp bounce in light wind bathing in solar max heat - it’s gonna magnify that affect

tomorrow is going to be like stepping of an airplane, having left a cold corpse’s rectum, and landing instantly within paradise. Looking at the data if anything it should bust cool machine guidance 1 or 2 and probably be 81 around here ...with light wind and almost open sky

1930s did that. Not saying that's now - but there been research/reanalysis on that stretch of inferno summers and that aspect of a dry decadal land feedbacks lending

It's too early for folks to "take it seriously" Particular for dealing with temperature extreme -type siggy weather events, they are fragile. Get this to Wednesday's cycling of models, and this looks as impressive or even if trend continues - yeah, we'll probably start seeing a throttle in PSA. I mean, a cyclone is way more immovable in the charts than a either cold or hot waves? Think about it, we focus on details of the cyclone in the winter. Who gets what and how much, and those attributes do move around quite a bit, guidance to guidance, run time to run time, etc. But the cyclone, as an overall entity, is much harder to completely dissolve - unless it is the GFS model ( ) But the over arcing synopsis leading to delivering historic cold, or heat, mm. I mean you change one contributing crucial jet configuration and the air mass cuts back from the extremeness almost immediately. Probably because when we are pressing events against the ceiling of what Earth can do, the only other way is some form of destructive interference and on and so on. But the areal coverage of that synoptical heat is truly awesome. This may broil the Dakotas to the Lakes to NE/MA back through the lower OV to MV for days. To mention southern tier of the Canadian southern Provinces... I mean it could be 94 at the southern tip of JB, 97 at BTV and 95 at Boston at apex or something. If that happens ( and as I mentioning PF, if anything 2-m are tended a bit shy at this range for whatever reason notwithstandng ) then the grid may begin to waver some. There's been a lot of upgrades and improvements to the grid in the last 20 years. We have to consider that all those wind farms and solar parks do add quite a bit of back up to the system ... I mean on the order of 11% as of last look-up, but it may be more than than that by now. At some point that may also offset uneven load balancing.

A bit of bunner comment incoming but heh, my experience with Euro 2-m Ts, they tend to be under done in that range, relative to synoptics being handled. That look probably ends up verifying 1 to 2 ticks more aggravated in the 850, and the potential 2-m won't reflect until we're perhaps < 4 days. If this trend continues to unfold this way and goes on and verifies, I'd almost be surprised if KFIT stuck at 93 ... not with dem parametrics. That has a west wind Boston urban heat bum pointing and squeezing one off right at Logan look man -... 101.1 !

Wow, the Euro. Illustrates a 12z 850 mb temperature layout of +16 to 18C, all over Mi-N In and Oh, Ny, Pa and New England, both next Saturday Sunday. It's synopsis leading is still suggestive of over-the-top, but it's just getting so areal expansive in coverage that it really doesn't matter - it appears NYC-BOS-BTV is just 91 to 96 as the dice range - probably still weight the higher side, N. What's alarming - for lack of better adverb - is that this is getting more ominous as we get closer, and it's still a week away. The SFC pressure pattern layout is like that perfect bread baking 10 to 15 mph breeze that is utterly useless for ventilation, but perfect to make sure the atmosphere is a crucible to 800 mb level. That's the other thing,... those adiabats if that's right will be taller than 850 sigma. It's rare around here to get boundary layers that tall, but that starting to look like it can overcome the sea-level density stuff. The hints of that because there appears to be a lee side thermal trough kinking the isobars from SE NH to southern NJ. When was the last time we had a convincing hundo day ? D9, 21C 850 mb over BTV !

Fwiw, WPC's general D7-14 risk assessment is flagging moderate N, slight S, for excessive heat criteria. This matches our own consensus/obs that it may bleed 'over-top,' I would offer though some of the hottest weather from the N. Mid Atlantic to PWM, ME actually arrives on WNW to NW trajectories. Usually at the sacrifice of a stalled BD cold front blocking D.E.M from the party like Steve Roubel outside "Studio 54" circa 1979. just sayin' . If we don't, looks to me like roughly D5 to 12 might range 87 NYC ( with donkey nuts DPs ) to 96 BTV, where the DP is lower do to source/wind direction in the mid BL respectively. I also want to add that this is 'continental tucking' again - just a personal hypothesis of mine that an over active late spring polar jet tends to draw the continental/SW ejected air conveyor N-W of climo, and then there tends to be more S/SE DP into the Mid Atlantic to NYC. Boston is a wild card there - sort of hinted below with the southern edge of this speculation chart down to rt 2. I could see Boston with a 93/63 ( f'n hot enough!), while BTV puts up a 98/56; and neither of those extremes shows up until we are day 3-5 outlooks btw.

Buddy of mine has a 2nd home/cottage he's spend the last decade vitalizing, next to a lake outside of Fryeburg - across the way from the Steve King place I guess. He was saying that it's like the warm season is so short up there, the air mass becomes dense with a competition on any summer evening, between DP moisture vs mosquitoes. That blue tinted haze against the back drop is actually a fog of vampires. He joked they're like hummingbirds in size, too. So aggressive in fact that even while inside, they bob and probe relentlessing to a competing mat against the window screens. Basically, you can't be out side - there is no warm season in those interior woodland lake regions - there's just winter, then blood suck.

Signal's still early. Needs to "cook" ( nyuk) for a while. Still the higher confidence mode is a period ...perhaps extending a week or even ten days, from ~ June 5 to the 12th/15th, of warmer to much warmer than normal temperatures, with indeterminate dew point intervals. Of less confidence is the extremeness, as is usually the case at this range. The last four consecutive 12-hourly cycles of the EPS, GEFs and GEPs ensemble means, have increased the amplitude centered on 168 thru 192 hours out, ...leading up to and including the 00z run. That's a long sentence for "the ridge amplitude is still trending bigger" - just trying to elucidate why/how that is being assessed. The operational runs are over programmed to sniff out stupid festering nuances, and even the Euro ..with it's so-called smoothing and normalization bs ...seems to come up with hole-punches in the ridge that don't look realistic. Like SE U.S. Coastal sea-breeze convection festering over some random night ...turning into S/W by convective feedback processes... cutting it off, knocking the feet out of the ridge - ...I'm not sure the models are really good enough to catch butterflies in the actual act of farting like that...but we'll see. The GFS just in general can't seem to scaffold the warm side of the westerlies over the continental U.S. ...ever. It doesn't have a problem doing this over the Pacific Ocean... interesting. It's got a +4 SD ridge out there NE of HA ..which should impose a historically deep mode of the PNA as a down stream mass--conserved wave- coupling into trough west, big-ish height dome over WV ... --> normal R-wave shit. It does but shirks it. It meanders the 588 instead of "filling it in" ...with all these weird kind of 500 mb dents pitting the ridge like those dark blotches on PCS scan of ex-NFL'er ... Fitting I suppose, because clearly the model forgets that there is actually a warm side of the westerlies much of the time. The ensemble means of all three ... agreeing in such a manner as they do is still pretty telling that this 'could' nest more 'big heat' in there - may just need to get on the other side of the mid week shit for it to emerge if ever.

Closing remarks on this Mem Day weekend massacre - From about last Tuesday on in I was following the lead-up days/model cycles to this 3-day stint of anti-Stein keenly for two reason: one, because I wanted it to rain enough to advance the Atlantic Ocean to the foot of the Berkshires permanently if it means never using/having to see the <-- preceding term 'stein' in context ...ever again ... Oh, and, all the people that do, are under that oceanic water column. So I was split in personal agenda... because two, I thought the wetter models had a chance of being over-assessed, and I was interested in seeing if that would transpire as we pressed on through the weekend. That of course did not happen! The reasons I cited were clad, too. Despite that, sometimes you get the bear, sometimes the bear gets you ... One thing I did notice though, the NAM nailed this thing and did so... before the other guidance. Although, in fairness and reciprocity I doff a little hat to the GFS ...which I come done on hard as the NCEP's deterministic instrument - I think it deserves the rec. The Euro was not horrible..but it wasn't as good as the NAM frankly, until it about 36 hours out, and then starts getting more impacting with that 2nd wave. Just what I observed. I'm also in bad mood this morning so hopefully this offends some one, some how -

Should also add... tropics - This pattern suggestion is often conducive to "home grown" variety/SW Atl Basin TS activity. It's also hitting at the right climatological time, where as June typically does see the most activity between the western Caribbean/Gulf OM and Bahamas. This waves the goof range of the operational GFS are probably just based upon that back-ground 'numerical instability' ( proneness) to development, but does help underscore the potential. Presently and preceding week does show the 200 mb v/p as reversing signs in the Atlantic - suggestive moving forward, too.

June welcomes you with a possible "Heat Storm" Short version: This might ( "might" LOL ) be interesting for those with hobby/interest/nerdly ocd in the summertime Meteorological spectrum. I do realize, that is a minority group ... sure. But seriously, the type and scale of heat looming here would be of the ilk that affects all - these extended leads come with the usual caveats It is early, but often the more important ( "larger" ) events will emerge out of the ether of guidance noise, at the farther temporal horizons - we look for consistency ( run to to run, day to day in the early handling) as well as whether disparate guidance sources also agree ( "cross-guidance" ). Longer version: We have both Firstly, we may think of this only when dealing with mid latitude winter storms and cyclones. However, the concepts are the same. Even for phenomenon such as heat and cold waves, etc. We go from this weekend's local -scaled climate nadir, into an ~ 5-day smeared recovery, transitioning gradually into an ominous stretch of heat - targeting as best as can be at this range .. probably next Saturday through much of that 2nd week of June. Seeking all three 00z cycle ens means: Euro, GEFs, and GEPs ... they all maintain heights nearing 590 dm while in concept, very slowly retrograde a planetary -scaled ridge signal. The flat structure of lower latitude /SE ridge genesis begins this week.. but then we see latter surge that really sends the upheaval heading into the deeper range. This latter formulation is over the WAR region of the west Atlantic, growing y, x, z-coordinates. It repositions over 4 to 5 days to the MV ... a time in which there is a well establish lower transport of continental thick warmth. The Euro even has quasi meshed EML ejection and hints at 850 kinetically charged Sonoran released air source getting mixed in... If that happens, this gets into whole 'nother realm of big heat. But for now... +16 to 18C 850 mb air layering at this range, by all three ens means for 5 to 7 days, is impressive enough. Doing so at this range is rare alone for any one of these guidance sources, but to have all them doing the same is another aspect and meaningfulness to deterministic weather forecasting entirely... Conclusion: For now... we are higher, much higher than normal confidence for any D6-15 range in fact, that an extended period of positive departures will engulf much of the U.S. ..Lakes-OV-NE-MA back to the MV. But, my personal 'add on' to that is the "gestalt" of weightiness in the signal seems to be of that ilk that is ... something frankly that is early detection historic. 1993 ... Sandy... 1992... 1978 (relative to modeling era). This does have that 'ooh' vibe to it. Trend, operational model tenors, ens means ... hell, even the climate nadir we are suffering now...needing to be corrected - a CC era that needs that to be the case no less... ha ... it's like every angle on this uncut diamond looks like with a little polishing it could be historic find. So we'll see -I think heat (and cold for that matter..) waves are just as important - or should be - to early risk assessment.

I can assure you ... the signal that formulates ( ultimately ...) those bar graphics for NYC ...are an eastern N/A and hemispheric scoped and scaled long wave event so ... they're likely hot whatever they are. Ha ha

OH yeah... we keep that in mind By the way ..I was going to start a June thread with some of these thoughts and obs ? I think it - much to the chagrin of some ... lol - this may be the next headline-able aspect, "heat wave," ...pending any leading convection. The Euro, GEFs and GGEM are in remarkable agreement which is rare - I'm thinking Thursday has some shot at thunderstorms...But it's a bad lapse rate deal with synoptic forcing again ...so heh. We can't seem to get a -8C delta anymore...

I dunno y'all ...regardless of the source of that bar graph up there ... heh, this is a pretty damn ominous looking signal that's materializing ~ spanning that 2nd week of June. It's even materializing in a planetary weighted construct, ...as 'one of those' type of events. Notice the non-spiked nature of the long trajectory, arcing increase taking days... followed by non frontal slow decay ?? - that's that not the same dragon beast as the typical run-of-the-mill heat wave synoptic, that's how those planetary events tend to go .. - talkin' real 'bundamentalism' stuff for those into summer shit. Lol

https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3600 Echoes much about everything I’ve been talking about ...even directly mentions the Hadley Cell expansion in there ...the speeding up of the hemisphere - it’s all proven right here btw anyway +AAM .. - was a typo. what I was getting at is that zonal fast flows tend to proceed the genesis of subtropical ridging. Contrast north-south meridional flow the a.m. is neg and that proceeds of +PNA/PNAP